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WOW 2006 math
rmeyer
Member Posts: 151
BLIZZARD INCOME FOR 2006
12 months * $15 * 8million subcribers = $1,440,000,000
$60 * 8million subscribers = $480,000,000
1,440,000,000 + 480,000,000 = $1,920,000,000 = 1.92 billion
$60 for the retail price of the game, I understand that that isn't how much it costs anymore, but
it did initially and if we consider that a large portion of people bought the game and don't play it
currently. (I fit in that category). This is also considering that all the currently subscribers were
gained in 2006, which is highly unlikely, but I think it will still even out give or take a few million.
GAMING INDUSTRY GROWTH IN 2006
2005 2006
12.5 billion - 10.5 billion = 2 billion
1.92 billion/2 billion = 96%
CONCLUSION
Assuming that Blizzard captures the hearts of people who have never been a gamer, (which definately isn't true)
Blizzard is equivalent to 96% of the growth of the gaming industry
12 months * $15 * 8million subcribers = $1,440,000,000
$60 * 8million subscribers = $480,000,000
1,440,000,000 + 480,000,000 = $1,920,000,000 = 1.92 billion
$60 for the retail price of the game, I understand that that isn't how much it costs anymore, but
it did initially and if we consider that a large portion of people bought the game and don't play it
currently. (I fit in that category). This is also considering that all the currently subscribers were
gained in 2006, which is highly unlikely, but I think it will still even out give or take a few million.
GAMING INDUSTRY GROWTH IN 2006
2005 2006
12.5 billion - 10.5 billion = 2 billion
1.92 billion/2 billion = 96%
CONCLUSION
Assuming that Blizzard captures the hearts of people who have never been a gamer, (which definately isn't true)
Blizzard is equivalent to 96% of the growth of the gaming industry
Comments
Revenue would be a more appropriate term than income in your "math"
And I'm sure that in due time (maybe not currently) you can find some much more reliable figures with actual back-up and sources instead of taking the max. number of subscribers (which they JUST announced reaching) and multiplying it by the MAX game price (which is 3x what it is now) some other somewhat eye-brow raising statistical work.
96%? You could use that same math methodology to convince yourself Volcano Insurance is a good investment when living in Chicago, unfortunately.
"Neat" to see the numbers close together? Sure, but there is very little meaning behind that thought the way you presented it. I'm pretty sure you could find more concrete figures at least thru Fiscal Q206, possibly some fairly decent estimates on Q3 revenue if not released concrete figures.
Now to me it looks like you dont have the correct research numbers for the gaming industry. you should go find some more recent numbers. plus there is some some error with your number considering that not all the people bought their game for $60. Some people could get it for cheaper. My calculations would give me around 65% of the gaming industry growth. but still thanks for trying.
If you want to make an argument then show me some numbers instead of talking so much.
If there are more reliable figures, find them, instead of saying everything is unreliable, find what is so reliable in your opinion.
Take into consideration that the majority of Wow players arn't in the US, and thus arn't paying anywhere near $15.00 per month. Then consider the fact that you are stupid.
I'm done here...
FYI There are SEVERAL mmo's in the far east that have 15 million +
Just the facts
1. 8 million subscribers =/ 12 months * $15 * 8million subcribers = $1,440,000,000
a. No fewer than 6 million of these "subscribers" are from korea, china, etc. In the asian market they do not pay monthly fees to play. they pay x amount per hour as the vast majority of these gamers do not play from home but play at internet cafes.
b. the 6 million number was from when wow had hit 7 million "subscribers". Guestimating what the ratio of growth is I would say that no more that 1.25 million people (and that is being generous) in N.A/Europe/S.A/AUS/NZ play this game in a typical subscriber method where they pay montly fees.
2. For at least 5 months of 2006 wow has been available from direct 2 drive and other places at a price 19.95.
3. in your "formulae" for statistics you fail to take into account: means, variances, or any of the other basic statistical methods. Because of this and your generalizations your conclusion is flawed as all of your base arguments supporting said conclusion are also flawed.
http://www.speedtest.net/result/7300033012
If you want to make an argument then show me some numbers instead of talking so much.
If there are more reliable figures, find them, instead of saying everything is unreliable, find what is so reliable in your opinion.
Actually in the financial word there can be some very fine differences between the two words. However, judging by your math I am not surprised you don't understand these differences or the reasoning behind it.
I didn't make the thread. You did. I pointed out flaws in the reasoning. Just because I'm not going to waste my time finding correct information to refute what everyone else obviously sees to be incorrect. Sorry if I don't find 3rd grade math "reliable". I guess working as an accountant I'm taught to look at facts and figures and not the clouds.
Look I can use this emote too
12.5 billion - 10.5 billion = 2 billion
Am I missing something? If there was a 12.5 billion profit in 2005 and a 10.5 billion in 2006 doesn't that qualify as a loss overall in gaming anyways?
IMHO here is your biggest problem with your numbers: If any store sells the boxed edition - no matter the price - Blizzard does NOT see all that money. Blizzard does not pocket the entire $40 for Burning Crusade, or the entire $20 for the boxed WoW. Somewhere along the lines of HALF of that is retailer markup and distribution fees (warehouses holding product for shipment).
NEXT flaw - your subscription fees, though they do go to Blizzard directly via account billing, are not all profit either. They go to pay for bandwidth, customer service, and a multitude of other fees like for electricity, servers, and rent on the server farms. Lets not forget paying the programmers for balance issues, bug repair, expansion creation, holiday events and any number of other daily activiies.
LAST flaw - its 8 million subscriptions, not active accounts. They've never admitted or denied that the free, 2-week accounts were part of those numbers (potentially grossly inflating them). They also never seem to go down, even after banning over a hundred thousand accounts at a time. So they are by NO means an active account listing.
Now, there is NO denying that Blizzard has far exceeded previous MMORPG expectations. Less than five years ago a hundred thousand units was a fantastic number sold, much less in the millions of Blizzard today. Im sure that the executives are very happy with their profits and the growth that WoW has brought to the gaming industry, but they are by no means clearing the amount of money your figures allude to.
BTW www.mmogchart.com doens't go anywhere except a off brand search engine site. Try again.
Impressive numbers yes, but we already knew they were impressive numbers. /shrug
-D^t
Currently Playing: GW2
Retired: Shadowbane, DAoC, WoW, FFXI, Eve Online, SWToR
The Aphelion MMO Blog - GW2 Initial Impressions
actually, china is 3.5 millions. 3.5 mils also from na and eu, that leave 1 million for korea and the rest.
the 6 million number released by the9 company was for ACCOUNT SOLD IN CHINA, not active subscribers, that are instead 3.5.
but yes, in china and other nations it cost a fraction then in the na/eu world for obvious reasons, so yea, surely wow do not include the whole increase in gaming.... console market, after all, is 10 time as big as the pc one and games like Gears of War , Saint's row or guitar hero had a major impact in 2006.
"If you give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, if you teach him how to fish, you feed him for a lifetime"
If you want to make an argument then show me some numbers instead of talking so much.
If there are more reliable figures, find them, instead of saying everything is unreliable, find what is so reliable in your opinion.
Income = the amount of money they made
Revenue = income - production cost (operating cost + employee salaries + loan interest + investors paid out + development cost(purchasing tools for WOW development) + more)
Way off. Take out some millions from taxes and other stuff like production and stuff and you only got some millions.
Mustache is a cat
That has to go to the vet
Do your taxes now