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Looks decent but does it have what it takes?
SWGforreva
Member Posts: 194
You've gotta understand, after WoW happend the race was on to see who else could make a majorly succesful mmo. This 2007 there are gonna be many new, advanced, and different mmos coming out. AGe of conan for example or Warhammer online, both these games are going all out to attract people, like WoW did, by doing something new, either through a PvP centered game, like Warhammer, or a new combat system like Age fo Conan (which will run on DX10 BTW). So let me ask you, what is LOTR doing new?
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Comments
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i dont see whats so good about AOC and i would get bored in about 2 seconds playing WAR cause there is way to much PvP which is alright for a bit and stargate i havnt really looked at but im not to much into sci-fi and Vanguard with the way theyre talking about them selves it looks like the only thing they have is those stupid flying mounts and LOTRO said they will probally be getting mounts in a new expansion probally of rohan
but LOTRO looks the best upcoming MMO
I think in no way will this game compete with WoW. Honestly, unless something comes out with extremely low system requirements and the ease of play you find in that game, it's going to stick at the top of the popularity list for a LONG time. The only games even on the horizon I could think of who could POSSIBLY challenge it would be Age of Conan, and more likely Warhammer Online.
BUT, LotRO will definately have a fair and likely stable subscriber base. It's a good setting, and assuming the game is released with a fair amount of content and playability, many people will want to pick it up. I doubt it will even break a million subscribers though... Heck, maybe not even half that.
(Oh, and don't forget, the only reason WoW is so high is that half of those subscribers are Chinese farmers.)
I'm definately looking forward to this spring though when LotRO comes out. (EB Games says April, but you know how reliable that is)
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I can't wait to play
Turbine has a particular target audience in mind. They will design this game to that audience. That audience might be 50K, 100K, 300K, 500K, maybe even 1 million. We don't know yet. What's more important to Turbine (and any of these companies) is that they be able to establish and sustain a solid cash flow that meets a number of criteria. The first is to payback the original investment costs in a reasonable time frame (probably 12-24 months if not less). Given the older financing numbers floated for Turbine and that DDO is done and out (and a far smaller game in comparison), Turbine probably spent between $25 million and $40 million on this one. My own guess (and it is purely a guess) is around $30 million. So they've got enough money to make a good game. A WOW? Hardly! That's a $90+ million dollar deal if you can swing it and Turbine doesn't need to swing that hard this time anyway.
The second criteria is for a game to make enough money to finance itself. This means enough to pay for operations, ongoing (free/periodic) content, and expansions. And the third criteria after meeting those first two is to make a profit.
Now, a $30 million dollar game can easily reach 300K subs. SWG did. And EQ1 hit 450K with original budget money of about $7 million. So it's not all just money either. Part of it is art. The screenshots for LOTRO show a distinct art style for LOTRO developed by Turbine and frankly, I like it. It's not as "realistic" as EQ2 or Vanguard but this is a game and the art style appears to achieve a very Tolkienesque feel to the game while probably allowing solid performance on modern computers. Remember, this is graphics engine is a descendant of AC2's engine and despite AC2's other flaws one of its strengths was its graphics.
What little I've read about quests, they appear to be superficially similar to other games like EQ2 or WOW. If this is too simplistic for you, go play Vanguard. It's the "hardcore" game coming out this year and if those are your expectations, foist them upon a game designed for that. Everything I've read Turbine say so far indicates that this is a game aimed at the more casual player, which the powergamer will probably eat alive in a few weeks. Big deal. Power gamers are not the be-all/end-all of gaming. In fact, LOTRO may provide a common outlet for RPers since this story is the basis for almost all modern fantasy anyway. Much of that will depend on how fully Turbine fleshes out the game systems to encourage RPers but Turbine could have a "lock" on that community if they made the effort.
All in all, LOTRO appears to be a game aimed at probably 250K to 500K subs and I can easily see a title like this doing those numbers if done reasonably well. Remember that 450K EQ1 brought in over a billion dollars to SOE over 5 years so a 250K to 500K sub game for Turbine would make them a nice tidy profit from which to (a) continue expanding LOTRO and (b) consider doing other games.
So the real concern should never ever be beating WOW. The real concern should be meeting your business goals and doing it with style so that your customers remember you (which is what Blizzard has done for years). Do that often enough and players will look forward to your productions. This is a big opportunity for Turbine. I wish them nothing but success. Besides hoping that a LOTR MMOG works out well, I still also hope to see another AC derived game someday as well. And for that to happen, Turbine has to make money first.
The adventure is in the journey itself.
No truer words. But it's hard for some people to understand that concept. Sure, companies want to make a successfull MMO, but all devs and most gamers understand the reality that WoW was a fluke. That kind of subscribership won't happen again. Blizzard entered a solid game that didn't do anything new but instead took alot things already done and tweaked them and introduced it to a genre that was on the up-swing in popularity. Add to that using a license that was popular world wide and voila, WoW. I stand by that if Blizzard had created a new setting for their MMO I don't think it would have done as it has.
But, you have to realize, not many people think along the lines you have written. They are still stuck on "Mine is bigger than yours, nah nah".
"Many nights, my friend... Many nights I've put a blade to your throat while you were sleeping. Glad I never killed you, Steve. You're alright..."
Chavez y Chavez
No truer words. But it's hard for some people to understand that concept. Sure, companies want to make a successfull MMO, but all devs and most gamers understand the reality that WoW was a fluke. That kind of subscribership won't happen again. Blizzard entered a solid game that didn't do anything new but instead took alot things already done and tweaked them and introduced it to a genre that was on the up-swing in popularity. Add to that using a license that was popular world wide and voila, WoW. I stand by that if Blizzard had created a new setting for their MMO I don't think it would have done as it has.
But, you have to realize, not many people think along the lines you have written. They are still stuck on "Mine is bigger than yours, nah nah".
I dont disagree with your post in any way, but good grief, I had to quote it just to read the text, might I humbly suggest a more readable text colour? You put across some good points but its useless if no one can see it
For my own 2cp worth, I think it will be a solid game, possibly the surprise hit of the new 2007 launches and could give Turbine some respect back after the DDO letdown.
I miss DAoC
What LotRO is lacking big time in my humble opinion is this right here:
http://images.mmorpg.com/images/screenshots/022006/6094.jpg
Any MMO that doesn't offer a full fledged character creation capability, does not deserve to come out until it does. We're not in the age of first generation MMO's here anymore, we're on what, the third age? fourth? People are expecting more bang for their buck. I know I sure am.
Don't get me wrong, I have plenty of great things to say about the game... but when I see an MMO these days with weak character creation, it just makes me think
not smart. Not smart.
Ever since the character creation in Star Wars Galaxies [which is where I first experienced such extensive customization features in an MMO] it should have become an industry standard...
BOYCOTTING EA / ORIGIN going forward.
You are wise not to put much faith in the one-line bumper-sticker "reviews" of disgruntled NDA-breakers.
The reason -- hypothetically, of course -- that you do not see beta-testers rising to refute the silly comments of NDA-breakers is because they do not wish to be removed from the beta process.
There is nothing else to add at this point.
When the NDA is lifted, you will have all your questions answered in full.
~ Ancient Membership ~
No truer words. But it's hard for some people to understand that concept. Sure, companies want to make a successfull MMO, but all devs and most gamers understand the reality that WoW was a fluke. That kind of subscribership won't happen again. Blizzard entered a solid game that didn't do anything new but instead took alot things already done and tweaked them and introduced it to a genre that was on the up-swing in popularity. Add to that using a license that was popular world wide and voila, WoW. I stand by that if Blizzard had created a new setting for their MMO I don't think it would have done as it has.
But, you have to realize, not many people think along the lines you have written. They are still stuck on "Mine is bigger than yours, nah nah".
I dont disagree with your post in any way, but good grief, I had to quote it just to read the text, might I humbly suggest a more readable text colour? You put across some good points but its useless if no one can see it
For my own 2cp worth, I think it will be a solid game, possibly the surprise hit of the new 2007 launches and could give Turbine some respect back after the DDO letdown.
Sorry about that. I'm very partial to dark green as it's my favorite color.
I agree, I think it will be a solid game. Solid = success. As another poster mentioned, the investors will be happy, Turbine will continue the tradition of pumping out periodic free content, supplementing that with expansions, and the recipe for a stable, long term game is complete. Sure, I understand why some folks do not like the game because it may not do X item in the exact way they want it to. I'm also not saying that the game will do every single thing right. I am saying it certainly isn't vaporware and that it will certainly achieve around the same success that DAoC, AC or UO did. All three of those games are still going.
"Many nights, my friend... Many nights I've put a blade to your throat while you were sleeping. Glad I never killed you, Steve. You're alright..."
Chavez y Chavez
Please do not take this question as a flame because honestly that is not how it is intended. But why? 99% of teh time I am staring at my characters ass from behind. Once I put armor and a helm on him/her he/she could have purple hair and 3 eyes for all I care and can see of him/her. Don't get me wrong I had fun with CoH's character creator but honestly once in the game wtf does it matter? Like I said I don't mean this as a flame I would really like to try and understand why a crappy character creater would equal game breaker.
To me a ton of different armor and hats and fancy cloaks and dyes and enamels and guild emblems are what makes everyone different , not a bunch of sliders on the character creator. Look at Vanguard and EQII they have the sliders but a lot of the options just make you look deformed and all the sliders do on hair style and mustaches is click through a bunch of presets.
I miss DAoC
As always a good reply by Thorongil
Indeed, why would they want to make a game to 'beat' WoW? Turbine just wants to make money, not beat Blizzard. If they can pull that off and make some happy customers (especially the ones that lost faith after AC2 and/or DDO) that's a nice bonus. I certainly hope that power gamers are *not* attracted to this game and that the majority of the players will be roleplayers....
Played: AC, AC2, Anarchy Online, AoC, D&D Online, Dark+Light, EQ2, EVE Online, FF XI, Guild Wars, Lineage II, Lotro, Ragnarok, Ryzom, Star Wars Galaxies, Ultima Online, WAR, WoW, etc. Also various MUDs
/me wanders off to try to continue ignoring this forum.
Currently Playing: Dungeons and Dragons Online.
Sig image Pending
Still in: A couple Betas
i have not played it yet so i can only talk about what i have read, but MPVP is new, it has been debated weither joining group bands to make music is new because SWG had something similar with entertainers, but the two are so different that i would say that is new too. But i really think that this game is gonna be a hit, vivendi universal games are back them and that says alot, not to mention everyone else that has their finger in the pie, i doubt very much that any of them would let the dev's screw this one up. also turbine has been making this game for a long, long time and beta testing it porper, all the reports indicate that they are having a really smooth beta testing phase with no majorly huge bugs ... everything i have read has been really positive, apart from a few user posts ( EG : turbine is crap, they will waste another game etc ... ), but i hardly listen to them. try it and descide for yourself if you like it or not, i am sure they will have a 10 day trial or something ...
I think the original poster's logic is fundamentally flawed. In fact, no one I know in the game industry except John Smedley is losing sleep over beating WOW. And Smed... well he deserves to lose sleep.
Turbine has a particular target audience in mind. They will design this game to that audience. That audience might be 50K, 100K, 300K, 500K, maybe even 1 million. We don't know yet.
I remember they had this same idea in mind when they DDO...boy did that go well.
Setting a target, short and long term is a sales prediction practice that is based on one thing, a guess. whether or not turbine made this 'guess' in the short or long term in the past is no prediction on if they will make it with this game. Having a low med. and high sale prediction is just one of those things that is involved in the making of a game. We dont know what those low med. and high sale projections are, we also dont know what one of those predictions need to me met to make the game successful and profitable
What's more important to Turbine (and any of these companies) is that they be able to establish and sustain a solid cash flow that meets a number of criteria. The first is to payback the original investment costs in a reasonable time frame (probably 12-24 months if not less). Given the older financing numbers floated for Turbine and that DDO is done and out (and a far smaller game in comparison), Turbine probably spent between $25 million and $40 million on this one. My own guess (and it is purely a guess) is around $30 million. So they've got enough money to make a good game. A WOW? Hardly! That's a $90+ million dollar deal if you can swing it and Turbine doesn't need to swing that hard this time anyway.
I highly doubt Turbine spent anywhere in the 10 millions for this game or DDO because they open DDO early and VERY unfinished. They also had to close AC2, which was horrible blow to their companies finances. AC2 and very unfinished DDO is a big sign that this companies is hurt on cash flow.
This game is well into 30 million for production costs. and it shows.
The second criteria is for a game to make enough money to finance itself. This means enough to pay for operations, ongoing (free/periodic) content, and expansions. And the third criteria after meeting those first two is to make a profit.
Off the fanboys. No matter how bad this game is, you're going to have a small group of people whol will like the game. DDO, Knight Online, RYL, Vanguard, and DNL are prime examples of fanboys who are in denial of horribly made games and continue to play them.
i agree with both statements
Now, a $30 million dollar game can easily reach 300K subs. SWG did. And EQ1 hit 450K with original budget money of about $7 million.
Money has nothing to do with why people are drawn to a game, but the gameplay itself. Right now, MMORPGs are about to hit slump because the MMORPG coming out now are all clones and haven't brought anything new to the gameplay.
Pls, if gameplay was the reason a person would be drawn to a game, there would be a lot less ppl playing a few different game. why where ppl drawn to WoW when it came out? gameplay? lol, no they where drawn to the game because of Blizzard, there previous games, and the 'Name" Warcraft.
For the same reason ppl will be drawn to LOTRO, or stay away.
So it's not all just money either. Part of it is art. The screenshots for LOTRO show a distinct art style for LOTRO developed by Turbine and frankly, I like it. It's not as "realistic" as EQ2 or Vanguard but this is a game and the art style appears to achieve a very Tolkienesque feel to the game while probably allowing solid performance on modern computers. Remember, this is graphics engine is a descendant of AC2's engine and despite AC2's other flaws one of its strengths was its graphics.
This game no where and no how captures Peter's Jackson's work or Tolkien's feel. This is an exaggaration of the games artwork because the only person who can judge whether the art is faith to LoTR is PJ or Tolkien himself. Unfortunately, Mr. T isn't alive to judge.
This game has nothing to do with Peter Jackson's work. This is solely based on the ideas and vision of the art directors, based on the books. so where do you go with that? you have knowledge of the books, and direction Mr. Tolkien would have gone with it, and try to integrate it. Forget the movies, there is nothing to do with the movies.
What little I've read about quests, they appear to be superficially similar to other games like EQ2 or WOW. If this is too simplistic for you, go play Vanguard. It's the "hardcore" game coming out this year and if those are your expectations, foist them upon a game designed for that.
Is this comment suppose to make LoTR seem better? This doesn't excuse the fact they aren't doing anything new with the game except milking money from fanboys. They aren't trying to give the players quality.
Again, this is a game that is very casual gamer friendly, period. and what have they done new? lol, your one that needs to pick up the trail, and see for your self, but for others here is the two most important ones.
Monster play.
Lord of the Rings in a mmo game !!!!!
Everything I've read Turbine say so far indicates that this is a game aimed at the more casual player, which the powergamer will probably eat alive in a few weeks. Big deal. Power gamers are not the be-all/end-all of gaming. In fact, LOTRO may provide a common outlet for RPers since this story is the basis for almost all modern fantasy anyway. Much of that will depend on how fully Turbine fleshes out the game systems to encourage RPers but Turbine could have a "lock" on that community if they made the effort.
I hope for your sake and Turbine sake, the RPers and causal players outnumber powergamers and moreover can co-exist with each other. If not, LotR is going to get face a heavy blow to their population and finances. We could be looking bankruptcy.
Pls, if your speaking of bankruptcy for turbine, just have a look at the money that is behind the company.
All in all, LOTRO appears to be a game aimed at probably 250K to 500K subs and I can easily see a title like this doing those numbers if done reasonably well. Remember that 450K EQ1 brought in over a billion dollars to SOE over 5 years so a 250K to 500K sub game for Turbine would make them a nice tidy profit from which to (a) continue expanding LOTRO and (b) consider doing other games.
You cannot predict the number of players that will play this game. Believe it or not, WoW did expect a large number of players to play the game. If this game gets 100k or below, it isn't going to last very long. If this game gets over 500k to 1m players, you are going to have some community problems similar to what has been in both WoW and GW.
True you cannot predict anything. but if there sales projections are anything close to the interest in the beta, and the trial, they will be well into the 200-300 thousand subs
So the real concern should never ever be beating WOW. The real concern should be meeting your business goals and doing it with style so that your customers remember you (which is what Blizzard has done for years). Do that often enough and players will look forward to your productions. This is a big opportunity for Turbine. I wish them nothing but success. Besides hoping that a LOTR MMOG works out well, I still also hope to see another AC derived game someday as well. And for that to happen, Turbine has to make money first.
Unfortunately, Turbine now has reputation for making not so good quality games.
you seem to forget a little thing called AC1, one of the best mmos ever. Not to mention, with the name of LOTR and the company's behind them for this project this is Turbines flagship game, and it will be. very polished, and well done.
Pick up the trial, see for your self, this game will be around for a long time.
Well said Nevenias. Sometimes I wonder what colored glasses people are looking through when they predict doom and gloom. I know they can't possibly be as informed as, at the risk of sounding elitist, myself and others. What I mean by that is there have been more than a few titles have not made retail or have done really poorly after launch. I'm not going to list them, but anyone who is a true MMO junkie knows about them or where to find info about them. LOTRO doesn't look or feel like any of those projects.
Some people may point out that AC2 was one of those games. True. But if you bring that up then you also need to look at the situation Turbine had with Microsoft, which contributed to AC2's closure, and their current relationships they have with LOTRO. You also can't discount the fact they they have an up close and personal view of what can cause a game to have to be shut down. They also know the things to do to have a game go, what is it now, 7 to 8 years?
"Many nights, my friend... Many nights I've put a blade to your throat while you were sleeping. Glad I never killed you, Steve. You're alright..."
Chavez y Chavez