As others have pointed out, the absolute worst case scenario for Vanguard is entirely dependent on how the other games that are set to release this year (Huxley, WAR, AoC, LOTRO, G&H, etc.) all shape up at their respective launches.
If even one of those games ends up offering a much more polished, stable, immersive, and vibrant world that draws people in, and if they start seeing massive subs, then Vanguard will suffer for it. VG launched in the direct aftermath of The Burning Crusade, and right before all these other titles see the light of day, so their actual window of opportunity to hook an audience is very narrow.
They're in a very tricky position right now. They had five years of development time, millions of dollars to spend, and two of the most recognizable names in MMO's -- Brad McQuaid and Jeff Butler-- at the helm, so expectations were very high. What they ended up releasing was unfinished, unpolished, and unstable, and all because even by their own admission, they ran out of time and money. They have to really get on the ball and start polishing up the game world and what it has to offer, or they risk getting buried under a deluge of other, newer games.
Best case scenario? All of those other games flounder and fall, and Vanguard manages to pull things together in less than a year.
But with Warhammer, LOTR, Conan, and others on the horizon, they really don't have any time to spare. They need to fix the game, fix the issues, and overhaul the feel of the world in general, or they're going to end up being the victims of either an NGE/CU style "upgrade" in their future, or being relegated to StationPass irrelevance.
Afterall, part of Vanguard's subscriber base is made up of people who play it less because it's Vanguard, but more because they're disinterested in everything else including WoW.
It was one of Brad's marketing pitches actually; the whole looking for something new and different. Right now, Vanguard has the luxury of almost solely being that, but that's about to change.
Worse case scenario: SOE decides to buy Vanguard from Sigil or buy Sigil all together. SOE then decides to put its ideology and spin into the game. It’s only a matter of time.
Best-case scenario: SOE salvages Brad & Sigil by buying them out, SOE puts its spin on the game and the Vanguard Faithful revolt because they think the move by SOE is a hostel takeover. It’s only a matter of time.
Completely outlandish scenario: Vanguard fixes all the bugs, everything works great, all the players are happy, SOE buys out Vanguard, its only a matter of time.
The Old Timers Guild Laid back, not so serious, no drama. All about the fun!
www.oldtimersguild.com An opinion should be the result of thought, not a substitute for it. - Jef Mallett
Afterall, part of Vanguard's subscriber base is made up of people who play it less because it's Vanguard, but more because they're disinterested in everything else including WoW.
It was one of Brad's marketing pitches actually; the whole looking for something new and different. Right now, Vanguard has the luxury of almost solely being that, but that's about to change.
Exactly.
There are people who are playing Vanguard because they deeply believe in The Vision, and there are people playing Vanguard because nothing else out there interests them for the moment. Those are two very different groups, and only time will tell which one is larger.
That's what makes it so important to polish things up, fix the bugs, fix the performance issues, and overhaul the world so it feels more alive. Time is short, and with all of these other games on the horizon, they don't have a lot of wiggle room.
Best Case Scenario: Sigil succeeds in fixing the glaring problems that VG has and maintains a modest sized population like EQ2. MMOs live and die by their launches and unfortunately VG is going to pay the price. It still has time to rebuild like EQ2 did but it will never be a monster hit.
Worst Case Scenario: This scenario is very possible. VG gets shut down. Now I know a lot of people argue that there are a lot of crappy MMOs out there that are still running and I agree. What isn't taken into consideration is the cost. VG is currently the second most expensive MMO to date with estimates running beyond $30 million. Other MMOs may be able to sustain themselves with a tiny subscriber base but I don't think VG has that luxury. $30 million in the black may be too much to overcome without a solid large playerbase. I know some people want to believe it but VG cannot be a niche game. It cost too much for that to be acceptable.
I don't think it matters anymore what they do. Historically most mmos reached their peak user base after 2 months or so (with a few exceptions like wow and lineage) and then slowly declined. The best they can hope for is to try and keep their existing users happy as long as possible.
There is no BEST CASE SENARIO for Vanguard..They have blown it and Brad is Shitting in his boots now.You had a chance to but you chooes EQ1 elites the public and now you have to play the piper.
Vanguard does not have anything really going for it other than-Broken ClasesBroken -Bugs Galore -Dead and Empty Worldl Everything just feels dead-Graphics are not the best as people like to think.Vanguard is anOver hYped
mmorpg by people who think Brad is god loll.He may have bought you EQ1 and yeah i played and loved it AT THE TIME..Eight Years later things have changed and people want More than randomly KILLING MOBs..pPeple will tell you that Vanguard has the best crafting system yet RYZOM has one just as good if not better.
Do you really think that vanguard can HOLD a 100k subs when this year MMORPG are everywhere.
WAR..07..
AOC...07
TCOS(The Chronicles Of Spellborn)07
Gods And Heroes..07
Spellborn7
Tubala Rasa..07..
POTBS..07
StTubalaTreakRasa..
Brad you had your chance and you blow it with the Most Boreing-Dead-Nothing 3rd Gen about it mmorpg.
Here are Screenshots of WOW-VANGUARD-LOTR..Vanguard looks a little better than WOW lol....How can anyone say Vanguardl leads the way in Graphics lol.I would seriously sack my ART team lol Brad as its a Joke lol.
The worst thing in all this is LOTR takes half the pain on your PC than Vanguard does,,,WHY is That?
Here are Screenshots of WOW-VANGUARD-LOTR..Vanguard looks a little better than WOW lol....How can anyone say Vanguard Leads the way in Grathics lol.I would seriously sack my ART team Brad as its a Joke lol.
The worst thing in all this is LOTR takes half the pain on your PC than Vanguard does,,,WHY is That?
I'm not sure there is a best case scenario. I guess a least worst case scenario for Vanguard would be merely to survive with a player-base large enough to justify its maintainance costs. Say, maybe around 25,000-50,000 subscribers. Plenty of MMORPGs have limped along for years with numbers like that.
As others have mentioned in this thread, there are just too many factors working against Vanguard ever establishing itself as a major player in the MMORPG market, but the two biggest are:
1) The veritable avalanche of highly anticipated MMORPGs coming very soon down the pike, most of them backed by heavyweight distributors and developed by industry veterans.
2) For the most part, the poor word of mouth Vanguard has garnered among gamers and reviewers. Once the aforementioned "highly anticipated MMORPGs" start rolling out, Vanguard will very likely be completely forgotten.
Some factors working for Vanguard and preventing a total and absolute collapse:
1) MMORPGs are very, very hard to kill off. Once a game goes live, a skeleton crew can run and maintain the servers on the cheap. It may take years and years for a company to recoup its development costs, but just by being on-line and accessible, they are making money.
2) Being allied with Sony. Yes, many see this as a negative, but Sony is a corporate behemoth capable of absorbing any potential loss Vanguard may incur (so long as they aren't catastrophic). Vanguard, in Sony's eyes, is merely another avenue into the MMORPG market. If it's not a big success, so be it. Its very existance maintains a presence in the market for Sony.
In a year from now IMO Vanguard will be in neither a BEST CASE nor a WORST CASE scenario. But the reasons which could make either of these situations occur need to be addressed. Vanguard will survive grow and improve, but it will never be what it could have been due to its early release (which means 6+ months of catch-up).
Its fate has already been sealed, it will eventually be (MAYBE in a year) the game it should have been when Brad had his 'vision' but by then the loyalty of its followers will have been tested to the limit. Too many games are coming out in the mean time and people can only forgive so much.
And to those playing now who will still be playing in a years time i hope when i read your posts in a year from now that somehow they turn it round, spending a year in a game then realising its never going to be your new second home as you wished, would be a shame.
The best case scenario would be a magical power-house programming extravaganza the likes of which the world has never seen. And Vanguard: Sofa Rage Hos appears on the horizon as the most uber game of all time with RTS ship-to-ship and team pvp aerial battles inside giant arenas over naked dancing girls to fill our giant castles.
Or
A mob breaks down the doors of Sigil, burns the building, and drags brad themanthemantheman out into the courtyard and strappedos him until his arms pop from their sockets and feeds him feet first to rabid boars. To which they post the videos on youtube.
Of course, when I read those, I can't really figure out which one is the best case. I think they both have some positivity to them.
Best case scenario for vangaurd is to just complete it, i would love for the game not be so linear. It does not follow the eq1 style with its leveling. It is a little too quest based for me. I am not a big fan of SoE nor am i hater, even though they ruined eq1 with shadows of luclin (was the begining of the end for eq). Games like vangaurd can't stay because too many freaking other MMO's i dont understand how companies can keep making MMO's and not realize that there is only so big of a base. WoW in the end will always come out winning because it just has a ridiculous amount of people, i can't understand it but i guess people like a game like that. Anyways, to the point, the best scenario for them is to get in gear in a BIG WAY. If they want EQ players back they need to make it seem like EQ and not put all the BS into the game, i think the game is beautiful in the graphic aspect and that adds a lot to an MMO, but right now its like eq1 currently is- Giant empy freaking zones with noone in them.
Worst case scenario: they release an expansion within the next year. SoE and their obsession with zerging expansions, i quit eq1 at Gates of discord , because they started getting ridiculous with items and paying 20 or so dollars an expansion started to put a big dent in the ol' wallet.
Best case scenario for vangaurd is to just complete it, i would love for the game not be so linear. It does not follow the eq1 style with its leveling. It is a little too quest based for me. I am not a big fan of SoE nor am i hater, even though they ruined eq1 with shadows of luclin (was the begining of the end for eq). Games like vangaurd can't stay because too many freaking other MMO's i dont understand how companies can keep making MMO's and not realize that there is only so big of a base. WoW in the end will always come out winning because it just has a ridiculous amount of people, i can't understand it but i guess people like a game like that. Anyways, to the point, the best scenario for them is to get in gear in a BIG WAY. If they want EQ players back they need to make it seem like EQ and not put all the BS into the game, i think the game is beautiful in the graphic aspect and that adds a lot to an MMO, but right now its like eq1 currently is- Giant empy freaking zones with noone in them.
Worst case scenario: they release an expansion within the next year. SoE and their obsession with zerging expansions, i quit eq1 at Gates of discord , because they started getting ridiculous with items and paying 20 or so dollars an expansion started to put a big dent in the ol' wallet.
Just my two cents.
I disagree. I think the market for MMO's is even bigger than WoW's base. It is not bigger for what I think you want which is a graphically better EQ1 but the market for a really good MMO is almost unlimited. If either of the companies that are combining FPS with RPG are able to pull it off you will see that Blizzard's 8 million is nothing. Think of combining Second Life, Battlefield 2142, and WoW in one package somehow. Someone will do it. It is just a matter of time.
Vanguard failed because it was dead on arrival (DOA) at launch and it is a 1999 game with 2004 poorly running graphics. I give it a base of 25k - 50k max.
Best Case Scenario: Sigil gets everything fixed and all content added that should have been there on day 1. Then they offer free 14 day trials to everyone (new and returning playrers) coupled with double experience weekends to try and relaunch the game. Current VG community drops eltiist attitude and welcomes new players with open arms (even if they used to play WOW) Worst Case Scenario: SONY pulls the plug, fires most of the devs and just tosses the game in the Station scrapheap...
Umm, it is *already* in the Station All Access Pass 'scrapheap'. In fact, it launched there.
WoW was not innovative either and it was horrible at launch and it seems to be doing fine at the moment. I remember not being able to log into WoW for days, and three times being refunded my play time for an entire month.
* It was innovative. Proof is in the Subs that NO ONE had even come close to achieving.
* It was playable at launch, and an order of magnitude better than EQ2 or V:SoH. The problems were due to the unnexpected success of the game causing Server Overloading. Then, they put in Queues to prevent that and everyone complained about that. Now, they have upgraded the hundreds (thousands) of server systems to better hardware and pretty much no more Queues or other problems.
* And how many times has Sigil / SoE given free play time because of Crashes, Rollbacks, Item Loss, Unplayable Lag? None? Sounds like Blizzard was at least trying to compensate their customers.
In my view, SoE and Sigil should look at Blizzard and WoW as models of how do do successful games. Not saying V:SoH should be a WoW clone. But it should be a Quality, Content, Reliability, Business Model, clone.
But, to late for that. V:SoH place in MMORPG land is fixed.
Obviously, the fans will say the game will be great in a year, and everyone else will disagree.
P.S. No game ever was ever called a success for its "ambition if for nothing else." In fact, it could be argued that its over-reaching ambition is what got Vanguard into this mess.
Worst case scenario: VG survives with a sub base of 100-150k, and never gets better. Fans will continually force themselves to believe they really enjoy this game, and will consider BMQ a misunderstood messiah.
BEst case scenario: VG flops, and everyone is there to see, and learn. The industry gets it through their skull, that people want quality, and redefined notions. Along with VG BMQ also flops, and sends the clear message, that people who can't evolve with the rest of us have no place in the future. MMOs need to be functional, not time sinks. VG is a classic time sink, not in the very least hard, it's boring.
Comments
It was one of Brad's marketing pitches actually; the whole looking for something new and different. Right now, Vanguard has the luxury of almost solely being that, but that's about to change.
Worse case scenario: SOE decides to buy Vanguard from Sigil or buy Sigil all together. SOE then decides to put its ideology and spin into the game. It’s only a matter of time.
Best-case scenario: SOE salvages Brad & Sigil by buying them out, SOE puts its spin on the game and the Vanguard Faithful revolt because they think the move by SOE is a hostel takeover. It’s only a matter of time.
Completely outlandish scenario: Vanguard fixes all the bugs, everything works great, all the players are happy, SOE buys out Vanguard, its only a matter of time.
The Old Timers Guild
Laid back, not so serious, no drama.
All about the fun!
www.oldtimersguild.com
An opinion should be the result of thought, not a substitute for it. - Jef Mallett
There are people who are playing Vanguard because they deeply believe in The Vision, and there are people playing Vanguard because nothing else out there interests them for the moment. Those are two very different groups, and only time will tell which one is larger.
That's what makes it so important to polish things up, fix the bugs, fix the performance issues, and overhaul the world so it feels more alive. Time is short, and with all of these other games on the horizon, they don't have a lot of wiggle room.
Worst Case Scenario: This scenario is very possible. VG gets shut down. Now I know a lot of people argue that there are a lot of crappy MMOs out there that are still running and I agree. What isn't taken into consideration is the cost. VG is currently the second most expensive MMO to date with estimates running beyond $30 million. Other MMOs may be able to sustain themselves with a tiny subscriber base but I don't think VG has that luxury. $30 million in the black may be too much to overcome without a solid large playerbase. I know some people want to believe it but VG cannot be a niche game. It cost too much for that to be acceptable.
Vanguard does not have anything really going for it other than-Broken ClasesBroken -Bugs Galore -Dead and Empty Worldl Everything just feels dead-Graphics are not the best as people like to think.Vanguard is anOver hYped
mmorpg by people who think Brad is god loll.He may have bought you EQ1 and yeah i played and loved it AT THE TIME..Eight Years later things have changed and people want More than randomly KILLING MOBs..pPeple will tell you that Vanguard has the best crafting system yet RYZOM has one just as good if not better.
Do you really think that vanguard can HOLD a 100k subs when this year MMORPG are everywhere.
WAR..07..
AOC...07
TCOS(The Chronicles Of Spellborn)07
Gods And Heroes..07
Spellborn7
Tubala Rasa..07..
POTBS..07
StTubalaTreakRasa..
Brad you had your chance and you blow it with the Most Boreing-Dead-Nothing 3rd Gen about it mmorpg.
Here are Screenshots of WOW-VANGUARD-LOTR..Vanguard looks a little better than WOW lol....How can anyone say Vanguardl leads the way in Graphics lol.I would seriously sack my ART team lol Brad as its a Joke lol.
The worst thing in all this is LOTR takes half the pain on your PC than Vanguard does,,,WHY is That?
lotrovault.ign.com/View.php
This question is becoming increasingly popular: http://www.silkyvenom.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15827
The answer of course is amateurish programming, poor art direction and terrible resource wastage.
Sadly, a robost and capable engine as Unreal has become the scapegoat in the eye of the public
CONTRIBUTE INTO THE GAMING INDUSTRY! STOP PAYING FOR BORING COPYCATS, UNFINISHED BUGFESTS AND CRANKY JUNKWARE. BE A RESPONSIBLE GAMER!
Best case scenario, Vanguard gets dropped.
Worst case scenario, Vanguard gets dropped.
I'm not sure there is a best case scenario. I guess a least worst case scenario for Vanguard would be merely to survive with a player-base large enough to justify its maintainance costs. Say, maybe around 25,000-50,000 subscribers. Plenty of MMORPGs have limped along for years with numbers like that.
As others have mentioned in this thread, there are just too many factors working against Vanguard ever establishing itself as a major player in the MMORPG market, but the two biggest are:
1) The veritable avalanche of highly anticipated MMORPGs coming very soon down the pike, most of them backed by heavyweight distributors and developed by industry veterans.
2) For the most part, the poor word of mouth Vanguard has garnered among gamers and reviewers. Once the aforementioned "highly anticipated MMORPGs" start rolling out, Vanguard will very likely be completely forgotten.
Some factors working for Vanguard and preventing a total and absolute collapse:
1) MMORPGs are very, very hard to kill off. Once a game goes live, a skeleton crew can run and maintain the servers on the cheap. It may take years and years for a company to recoup its development costs, but just by being on-line and accessible, they are making money.
2) Being allied with Sony. Yes, many see this as a negative, but Sony is a corporate behemoth capable of absorbing any potential loss Vanguard may incur (so long as they aren't catastrophic). Vanguard, in Sony's eyes, is merely another avenue into the MMORPG market. If it's not a big success, so be it. Its very existance maintains a presence in the market for Sony.
In answer to some replys and my original post.
In a year from now IMO Vanguard will be in neither a BEST CASE nor a WORST CASE scenario. But the reasons which could make either of these situations occur need to be addressed. Vanguard will survive grow and improve, but it will never be what it could have been due to its early release (which means 6+ months of catch-up).
Its fate has already been sealed, it will eventually be (MAYBE in a year) the game it should have been when Brad had his 'vision' but by then the loyalty of its followers will have been tested to the limit. Too many games are coming out in the mean time and people can only forgive so much.
And to those playing now who will still be playing in a years time i hope when i read your posts in a year from now that somehow they turn it round, spending a year in a game then realising its never going to be your new second home as you wished, would be a shame.
The best case scenario would be a magical power-house programming extravaganza the likes of which the world has never seen. And Vanguard: Sofa Rage Hos appears on the horizon as the most uber game of all time with RTS ship-to-ship and team pvp aerial battles inside giant arenas over naked dancing girls to fill our giant castles.
Or
A mob breaks down the doors of Sigil, burns the building, and drags brad themanthemantheman out into the courtyard and strappedos him until his arms pop from their sockets and feeds him feet first to rabid boars. To which they post the videos on youtube.
Of course, when I read those, I can't really figure out which one is the best case. I think they both have some positivity to them.
Worst case scenario: they release an expansion within the next year. SoE and their obsession with zerging expansions, i quit eq1 at Gates of discord , because they started getting ridiculous with items and paying 20 or so dollars an expansion started to put a big dent in the ol' wallet.
Just my two cents.
I disagree. I think the market for MMO's is even bigger than WoW's base. It is not bigger for what I think you want which is a graphically better EQ1 but the market for a really good MMO is almost unlimited. If either of the companies that are combining FPS with RPG are able to pull it off you will see that Blizzard's 8 million is nothing. Think of combining Second Life, Battlefield 2142, and WoW in one package somehow. Someone will do it. It is just a matter of time.
Vanguard failed because it was dead on arrival (DOA) at launch and it is a 1999 game with 2004 poorly running graphics. I give it a base of 25k - 50k max.
* It was innovative. Proof is in the Subs that NO ONE had even come close to achieving.
* It was playable at launch, and an order of magnitude better than EQ2 or V:SoH. The problems were due to the unnexpected success of the game causing Server Overloading. Then, they put in Queues to prevent that and everyone complained about that. Now, they have upgraded the hundreds (thousands) of server systems to better hardware and pretty much no more Queues or other problems.
* And how many times has Sigil / SoE given free play time because of Crashes, Rollbacks, Item Loss, Unplayable Lag? None? Sounds like Blizzard was at least trying to compensate their customers.
In my view, SoE and Sigil should look at Blizzard and WoW as models of how do do successful games. Not saying V:SoH should be a WoW clone. But it should be a Quality, Content, Reliability, Business Model, clone.
But, to late for that. V:SoH place in MMORPG land is fixed.
Obviously, the fans will say the game will be great in a year, and everyone else will disagree.
P.S. No game ever was ever called a success for its "ambition if for nothing else." In fact, it could be argued that its over-reaching ambition is what got Vanguard into this mess.
BEst case scenario: VG flops, and everyone is there to see, and learn. The industry gets it through their skull, that people want quality, and redefined notions. Along with VG BMQ also flops, and sends the clear message, that people who can't evolve with the rest of us have no place in the future. MMOs need to be functional, not time sinks. VG is a classic time sink, not in the very least hard, it's boring.