This is what we call "argumentum ad ignorantiam," or, "appeal to ignorance." It is a logical fallacy that a premise is false simply because it has not been proved true.
Sophistry at its finest: "I have proffered a counter to every ground upon which you could base your argument, ergo, your argument must be wrong." In correct. The existence of a counter does not necessitate a finding that the assertion is wrong.
It is a given that anyone making an assertion based on anecdotal evidence is merely speculating. However, since SOE does not release the actual server numbers, speculation is all that is available and anecdotal evidence is all that can be used. There is nothing wrong with speculating based on anecdotal evidence in the absence of any other reliable evidence. If humans stopped speculating on subjects simply because they lacked solid empirical evidence, intellectual development would be ground to a screeching halt.
Also, your argument as to why SOE would not release its numbers is wholly unconvincing. Many MMOs with significantly smaller numbers than WoW release their numbers. It is pretty well known that ALL other MMOs pale in comparison to WoW's numbers, so there's no reason that would deter SOE from releasing its numbers to chart itself. The fact is that SOE used to release numbers, which were around 200k, when WoW was at 5 million. So clearly they had no problem then. It is not illogical to SPECULATE that their change in policy may have been brought about by a significant decline in numbers.
Pile up enough anecdotal evidence and logical conclusions can emerge.
Thank you, thats exactly what I was thinking but couldn't put it into words as well as you.
The lack of players is like gravity. We can't "see" it (according to you're 'constant motion' statements), but we know that its there, and we see the effects. If you throw a ball up, it will come back down. If you try to get an ent buff (without being in a guild), you won't get it.
And just walk around the different player cities. You'll see a red "abandoned" on practically every sign. Is that not evidence? Do people not plant houses anymore?
This is what we call "argumentum ad ignorantiam," or, "appeal to ignorance." It is a logical fallacy that a premise is false simply because it has not been proved true.
Sophistry at its finest: "I have proffered a counter to every ground upon which you could base your argument, ergo, your argument must be wrong." In correct. The existence of a counter does not necessitate a finding that the assertion is wrong.
It is a given that anyone making an assertion based on anecdotal evidence is merely speculating. However, since SOE does not release the actual server numbers, speculation is all that is available and anecdotal evidence is all that can be used. There is nothing wrong with speculating based on anecdotal evidence in the absence of any other reliable evidence. If humans stopped speculating on subjects simply because they lacked solid empirical evidence, intellectual development would be ground to a screeching halt.
Also, your argument as to why SOE would not release its numbers is wholly unconvincing. Many MMOs with significantly smaller numbers than WoW release their numbers. It is pretty well known that ALL other MMOs pale in comparison to WoW's numbers, so there's no reason that would deter SOE from releasing its numbers to chart itself. The fact is that SOE used to release numbers, which were around 200k, when WoW was at 5 million. So clearly they had no problem then. It is not illogical to SPECULATE that their change in policy may have been brought about by a significant decline in numbers.
Pile up enough anecdotal evidence and logical conclusions can emerge.
What you have just done is set up a strawman argument. What you said would be true, if I said what you claim I did. However, I didn't say that the absence of evidence proves SWG isn't loosing subscribers. I stated why one cannot rely on anecdotal evidence and turn around and use it to claim that it represents the population numbers.
I read the article you linked to. The author cited the unverified population numbers that were posted by an anonymous internet user a while back and cited them in such a way that leads the reader to believe them as a fact. This casts serious doubt as to the journalistic integrity of the author.
Jeez, I don't think anyone here has tried to extrapolate subscription numbers from observation in game.
That's pretty silly.
All I'm saying is that I saw fewer players in places I'd expect to find players based on long experience with the game.
This indicates to me that there are fewer players...because I see fewer players!
Direct observation. Obviously not scientific enough!
Aside from the fact that I was in a fifty person guild and only a handful of them are still playing the game, well, I guess that's not proof of anything, either.
CH, Jedi, Commando, Smuggler, BH, Scout, Doctor, Chef, BE...yeah, lots of SWG time invested.
What you said is that anecdotal evidence is useless. What I am saying is that's a categorically incorrect assertion. Anecdotal evidence is useful; ESPECIALLY when there is a lack of direct evidence (notably created by SOE) AND when you look at the aggregate of the evidence. Additionally, by challenging the anecdotal evidence upon which people have alleged that SWG's subscription numbers are down you are necessarily challenging that assertion. If you disparage someone's methodology you implicate their conclusions as well.
I did not refer you to the article for the numbers. I referred you to the article because its an interesting accumulation of anecdotal evidence which, by its sheer volume, makes for some compelling assertions.
You give lengthy explanations to debunk multiple pieces of anecdotal evidence, yet occam's razor seems to be more applicable to the situation.
I may have needed a dictionary to read some of this but it seems simple. Anyone who was playing during the games prime that logs in now will automatically notice a huge difference outside of the newbie starting area in tatooine. No one may know exact numbers at peak time for each server but its a noticeable difference when you just move around the world. the random encounters are far fewer in between. When I first played almost every city was crowded at almost anytime. Theed so much so that I could barly get thru the lag with a high end computer and a very fast connection. Who cares for raw numbers just use your eyes when you play.
I may have needed a dictionary to read some of this but it seems simple. Anyone who was playing during the games prime that logs in now will automatically notice a huge difference outside of the newbie starting area in tatooine. No one may know exact numbers at peak time for each server but its a noticeable difference when you just move around the world. the random encounters are far fewer in between. When I first played almost every city was crowded at almost anytime. Theed so much so that I could barly get thru the lag with a high end computer and a very fast connection. Who cares for raw numbers just use your eyes when you play.
QFE!
If it takes a full page to try and explain where all these players are, then there's a problem. I don't need an 8 page report to tell me gas prices are high, I can see it for myself. I've heard everything from they're all busy "questing" to the whole "You're logging in during down time."
Does this mean that pre-NGE, no one ever quested? And since I log in the same times I did 2 years ago, did my house switch time zones? I'm not trying to be a smart a$$, but the fact is that MOST servers are extremely under populated and sub-par for a MMORPG. The Dev's are trying, but they are just digging a new hole to fill the one they already have.
People can defend and explain all they want, but this game is in serious need of help. Maybe instead of trying to come up with formulas and essays about how the servers are populated, they should concentrate on solving Global Warming?
Maybe swg players are all hiding out in the same places Vanguard players are. In fact, they found such good hiding spots in the "huge game world" that VG is having its servers merged down to only 4.
Seriously, anyone that thinks or says there are the same or more people swg than before the nge are either flat out lying or delusional. I played swg a few months ago on the vet trial thing and one of my goals was to find as many players as I could. Apart from Mos Eisly and Restus I ran across very few people. Certainly a lot less than when I played before the nge. I guess everyone was in space/on mustafar/on kash/out in the wilds.
Is a man not entitled to the herp of his derp?
Remember, I live in a world where juggalos and yugioh players are real things.
Comments
Thank you, thats exactly what I was thinking but couldn't put it into words as well as you.
The lack of players is like gravity. We can't "see" it (according to you're 'constant motion' statements), but we know that its there, and we see the effects. If you throw a ball up, it will come back down. If you try to get an ent buff (without being in a guild), you won't get it.
And just walk around the different player cities. You'll see a red "abandoned" on practically every sign. Is that not evidence? Do people not plant houses anymore?
I read the article you linked to. The author cited the unverified population numbers that were posted by an anonymous internet user a while back and cited them in such a way that leads the reader to believe them as a fact. This casts serious doubt as to the journalistic integrity of the author.
Jeez, I don't think anyone here has tried to extrapolate subscription numbers from observation in game.
That's pretty silly.
All I'm saying is that I saw fewer players in places I'd expect to find players based on long experience with the game.
This indicates to me that there are fewer players...because I see fewer players!
Direct observation. Obviously not scientific enough!
Aside from the fact that I was in a fifty person guild and only a handful of them are still playing the game, well, I guess that's not proof of anything, either.
CH, Jedi, Commando, Smuggler, BH, Scout, Doctor, Chef, BE...yeah, lots of SWG time invested.
Once a denizen of Ahazi
Wrong Forum...should be in Refuge IMO.
+1
MMO History: 2528 days in SW:G
I did not refer you to the article for the numbers. I referred you to the article because its an interesting accumulation of anecdotal evidence which, by its sheer volume, makes for some compelling assertions.
You give lengthy explanations to debunk multiple pieces of anecdotal evidence, yet occam's razor seems to be more applicable to the situation.
QFE!
If it takes a full page to try and explain where all these players are, then there's a problem. I don't need an 8 page report to tell me gas prices are high, I can see it for myself. I've heard everything from they're all busy "questing" to the whole "You're logging in during down time."
Does this mean that pre-NGE, no one ever quested? And since I log in the same times I did 2 years ago, did my house switch time zones? I'm not trying to be a smart a$$, but the fact is that MOST servers are extremely under populated and sub-par for a MMORPG. The Dev's are trying, but they are just digging a new hole to fill the one they already have.
People can defend and explain all they want, but this game is in serious need of help. Maybe instead of trying to come up with formulas and essays about how the servers are populated, they should concentrate on solving Global Warming?
Seriously, anyone that thinks or says there are the same or more people swg than before the nge are either flat out lying or delusional. I played swg a few months ago on the vet trial thing and one of my goals was to find as many players as I could. Apart from Mos Eisly and Restus I ran across very few people. Certainly a lot less than when I played before the nge. I guess everyone was in space/on mustafar/on kash/out in the wilds.
Is a man not entitled to the herp of his derp?
Remember, I live in a world where juggalos and yugioh players are real things.