You really want to know what will happen come Q1 of 2008 assuming all scheduled mmo's come out? WoW will just be getting patch 2.3 out that introduces some 5-10 man and STILL has another 4 month patch after that before even considering an expansion launch. Raiders will be bored, PvPers will be PvPed out from the mind numbingly pointless arenas. MMO players will be looking for something new or to keep them busy. WAR, AoC, PotBS, TR, and a bunch of other MMO's will have released and the mmo community will be fractured into different groups. Many that played EQ/EQ2/WoW will be playing AoC or WAR. PvE'rs mostly going to AoC since I do believe they will have 25 man raids(correct me if I am wrong). WAR will get somewhere in the range of 500,000 players in the first few months between EU and NA. Asssuming that WAR delivers on what they have promised (unlike WoW), people will follow their friends and try it out. 4-8 months down the line AoC and WAR have a decline in population due to WotLK fanbois returning to try it out. Weeks later they return to AoC and WAR. Assuming also at this point that no one has an expansion out yet, hey these companies aren't blizzard! They don't take 2 years to make one small expansion. During this time there will be a large battle between AoC and WAR like EQ2 and WoW. The winner at this time will be hard to determine simply because it is too soon. If WAR releases EARLY Q1, has a stable game that is polished it will have a big advantage over AoC. Many will buy WAR to pass the time and possilby get hooked or won't be able to justify spending another $60 for AoC +computer upgrades should they be neccessary. Hardware reqs will be another factor so AoC better make sure that it will run on some average PC's. AoC does have the PvE advantage though and it will draw people, as well as the kids that want SEX OMG SEX! WoW players will migrate to EVERY newly released game since the largest population of gamers have collected there. I will venture a guess to say that most MMO players didn't join WoW because they were Warcraft fans, but rather that it was the next big mmo. This will again happen with WAR and AoC. The big winner will be the big loser because of WoW players infiltrating the ranks! Hopefully though the wow fanbois will return for the expansion. Numbers for both games will grow and I could see WAR and AoC both breating WoW for player numbers in NA/EU but not in Asia....yet. The biggest draw I think is peer pressure from friends, guilds, hype, etc. So let the games begin!
Personally I will be getting Hellgate London on Oct 31 and playing that until WAR comes out. Assuming that in between I don't get into any betas (AoC or WAR) to get an advanced look at things that will have a big impact on my judgement.
You are assuming a lot about WoW players. I know a lot of them, and I asked like 12 of them which new MMO's they thought sounded good. 10 of them hadn't even heard of WAR, AoC, TR, or PotBS. One of them said that he had heard of WAR from a friend on WoW, but that it had a bunch of stuff that he didn't like (all of it turned out to be stuff that the devs never said would be in the game), he I managed to convert over to a new MMO. And the last guy had heard of AoC and WAR but said he was sticking with WoW. They all seemed perfectly content to just play WoW. It's because the thing with WoW is that it's designed to never let the people who are playing know that it's boring. It keeps people busy grinding to get to 70 (80 soon), then raiding to get that epic gear. Then to PvP endlessly and without point until you become top rank or however it works now. And then more to keep that rank. This takes long enough that another expansion comes out making people start all over again. Most of my friends that play WoW, aren't in the market for a new MMO because they are completely entertained with WoW. The people who quit like me are the ones that saw just where the game was going and left. I left just before the burning crusade because I said I have to go 10 more levels then before and I haven't even gotten to level 60 yet (I messed around a lot and was usually in a BG), screw this I'm out. Not to mention that the whole WAR, AoC, etc hadn't atracted(sic) any of those 12's WoW friends either. So this new generation of MMOs is going to be pulling mostly from people who have already left WoW, or whichever game their coming from. No doubt that some more people will leave WoW, plenty of them from WotLC, but there is going to be less of an exodus than that BC because WotLC are the people that saw BC's 10 new level as either good or not that bad. Some will see where it's actually going, and some will leave for a new MMO just because they think that it looks better but I doubt that their numbers will go down that much.
Sorry for the writing. I have a tendency to go back and forth with my opinion and just generally around in circles. It probably has something to do with me being all 6's and 7's. Oh ya and sorry for the babbling too. Now if you'll excuse me, it's time for me to hit the old dusty trail.
Not saying that I don't assume anything about WoW players but I was talking more about MMO players than WoW players. The difference being people that play WoW because it is Warcraft or made by blizzard. MMO players are people who look for an MMO that is good. Most of the people that frequent this site are mmo players. WoW players don't view anything outside of wow and if they do they target it as a threat and say it is a copy, it sucks, they played the beta and it was horrible etc.
People that are currently content with their mmo aren't looking for another game so of course they wouldn't have any idea with what is up and coming for the Q1 lineup. What happens however is the trickle down effect. Someone they know will play another game and like it. That person tells a friend to try and they like. So they tell more friends and quit the other game for the new game. Soon the populations drop raids are hard to come by and people are no longer content. So they either look for a new server or a new game. Since all their friends are already playing a new game they generally go there. Granted the hardcore WoW fanbois or WoW players will stay because they like blizzard or warcraft.
The reason I started playing SWG was because of this principle. A friend got a friend that got a friend etc. Same for WoW. In all actuality my friend that beta tested both WoW and EQ2 at the time thought WoW was awful and picked EQ2 as the game to get. However as luck would have it his girlfriend bought him WoW for christmas so he played that instead. He then recruited everyone from our SWG guild and I soon followed suit. Peer pressure is one hell of a marketing technique and it will be THE determining factor in the fight between WAR, AoC and whatever other mmo you wanna put into the mix. All the WoW players that I know (granted that I quit back in Nov) have are organizing for the next game. I know a few people that will pick up Hellgate London so I will give that a shot for awhile then plans are for WAR. AoC just gives me the heebee geebees like it will be a Super guild/raiding game.
Well, I heard from alotta mor... hmm... people here they didnt want to see all those wowers in WAR. Great. They got a right to think this way. But what about Electronic Arts? WoW got a developing budget close to $50M. And I've heard EA is gonna spend around $30M for promotional purposes only. So we can asume the whole WAR budget will be even more than a WoW one. And now the question - how many subscribers will WAR need to cover all those expenses? My estimation - a few millions (purhaps 3-4 millions would be ok). Will EA be able to get all these millions w/o attracting wowers? I highly doubt. So WAR will have to meet somewhen wow players' expectation. And it looks like so far it's not gonna happen... What will EA do if its WAR expectation wont come true? God knows... But not any good for the game that's for sure...
Not attracting WoWers? What are you talking about? Since when have we excluded anyone from making a choice of what game they play. US citizen have a Bill of Rights, we have freedom of choice. Excluding anyone is wrong, now isn't it. Sounds rather immature coming from folks that want an "adult" game.
All I want is the truth Just gimme some truth John Lennon
test the MMO market. if it pays off ($$$ and a long life for the game) then we can expect to see more and more MMO's comming from this giant. if it fails...they retreat behind the thick walls of fps, rts and rpgs they are known for.
MMO wish list:
-Changeable worlds -Solid non level based game -Sharks with lasers attached to their heads
If EA were the only publisher of MMO's I would quit this genre alltogether.
I would never invest time into something they were involved with because I know that the very same second the game would turn less then a 30% profit they WILL shut it down, no attempts will be made to keep it alive, nor will any changes.
Not saying that it will do bad, chances are slim to be honest, but they are there.
In an ironic way EA is very predictable this way.
They are the Bloody monsanto corporation of gaming.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Originally posted by Jerek_
I wonder if you honestly even believe what you type, or if you live in a made up world of facts. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Except for the fact that EA doesn't own Warhammer. They own Mythic. This basically means, that the quality check is not done by *rushed 1 year development crappy movie-games* EA.
Which is good and the prospect of investing in this monster of a game is probably what turned EA over. They don't want to control, they simply offer money, to gain money.
(Bonus for both companies I'd say) But yes, as soon as EA starts messing with the content, you can pretty much say the game has died.
As it stands right now ...WAR will more than cover the costs so long as the product is good. They already have more than enough people interested in playing including many from WOW itself. If the finished product is good then they may gain even more subscribers after initial release just as WOW did. If they do not release a good finished product, you will see many coming from WOW going back to WOW. As for other customers, they may ride it out to see where it goes and give it a little time.
I believe WAR will have a good release though, they know they cant afford not to. Not having a good release will lose too many customers. They know the position there in right now and I see them cashing in and not making any mistakes. Next year I see WAR falling into the top 3 MMORPG's by active subscriber numbers ....not counting F2P and item shop games. Beat WOW though? Most likely not, but I think as far as games go, this will end up putting up numbers above that of Lineage 2.
I believe EA does have very high expectations of WAR. Higher financial expectations than will probably not be met
EA has a track record for being the"Darwin theory incarnate"of computer gaming. They buy companies, and if those companies don't make an immediate profit, no matter how good the game is, the company gets to learn first hand what "Natural Selection" is...the hard way. Just look at Westwood and Troika.
Mythic knew of this reputation of EA, as the Grim Reaper of promising companies, so they prepared and made very specific what THEIR EXPECTATIONS WERE before they were bought. They also made very sure in their contracts that EA would not go "Natural Selection" on them.
EA cant just break up Mythic and scatter their employee's if they don't meet or exceed the financial expectations the board members have set. EA has no direct control over Mythic or the WARHAMMER IP. Which puts EA in a very odd position for once. They must SUPPORT Mythic and cannot directly intervene with either Mythic or Games Workshop.
That being said, I believe EA is hoping for a WoW killer, they wont get it, but they are hoping for it. The amount of money they are spending on promotions alone bare proof of this statement. All EA's actions in the past have been to further their monopolies on markets and to increase the popularity of those games while destroying (not just beating) their competiton. Take the exclusive purchase of the football lisense as an example.
Paul, Richard and the rest of Mythic know better though, I am quite sure that they have high expectations as well but not as high as EA.
I believe the best EA can hope for is a lucrative monthly game to earn steady income. I am sure EA would love to set their sights on dominating the market. But this is not the game that will do so.
Honestly, none of the above matters, EA has no direct control over either Mythic or Games workshop. So in this case they just have to take what they can get.
But either way EA comes out winners: At the very least, they will get a steady month based income from this game for years to come. So someone in EA must have been thinking about the long term, for once, when they brokered this deal.
To beat WoW, Mythic doesn't have to beat the 9 mil. They just have to half WoW's subscribers. And in the current light, I even doubt that's going to be hard.
Comments
Sorry for the writing. I have a tendency to go back and forth with my opinion and just generally around in circles. It probably has something to do with me being all 6's and 7's. Oh ya and sorry for the babbling too. Now if you'll excuse me, it's time for me to hit the old dusty trail.
Not saying that I don't assume anything about WoW players but I was talking more about MMO players than WoW players. The difference being people that play WoW because it is Warcraft or made by blizzard. MMO players are people who look for an MMO that is good. Most of the people that frequent this site are mmo players. WoW players don't view anything outside of wow and if they do they target it as a threat and say it is a copy, it sucks, they played the beta and it was horrible etc.
People that are currently content with their mmo aren't looking for another game so of course they wouldn't have any idea with what is up and coming for the Q1 lineup. What happens however is the trickle down effect. Someone they know will play another game and like it. That person tells a friend to try and they like. So they tell more friends and quit the other game for the new game. Soon the populations drop raids are hard to come by and people are no longer content. So they either look for a new server or a new game. Since all their friends are already playing a new game they generally go there. Granted the hardcore WoW fanbois or WoW players will stay because they like blizzard or warcraft.
The reason I started playing SWG was because of this principle. A friend got a friend that got a friend etc. Same for WoW. In all actuality my friend that beta tested both WoW and EQ2 at the time thought WoW was awful and picked EQ2 as the game to get. However as luck would have it his girlfriend bought him WoW for christmas so he played that instead. He then recruited everyone from our SWG guild and I soon followed suit. Peer pressure is one hell of a marketing technique and it will be THE determining factor in the fight between WAR, AoC and whatever other mmo you wanna put into the mix. All the WoW players that I know (granted that I quit back in Nov) have are organizing for the next game. I know a few people that will pick up Hellgate London so I will give that a shot for awhile then plans are for WAR. AoC just gives me the heebee geebees like it will be a Super guild/raiding game.
im a wower. and im likely going to quit wow for this.
this game > all else
Not attracting WoWers? What are you talking about? Since when have we excluded anyone from making a choice of what game they play. US citizen have a Bill of Rights, we have freedom of choice. Excluding anyone is wrong, now isn't it. Sounds rather immature coming from folks that want an "adult" game.
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth
John Lennon
I currently play WoW. I too will definetly be leaving it for WAR.
Played: SWG 2.5 years, WoW 4 years
Tried: RF Online, Ryzom, Daoc, CoH/CoV, Lotro, Vanguard, Guild Wars
Beta Tested: SWG, RF Online, Lotro, Potbs, Tabula Rasa, G&H, Perfect World
what do they want? a test subject.
test the MMO market. if it pays off ($$$ and a long life for the game) then we can expect to see more and more MMO's comming from this giant. if it fails...they retreat behind the thick walls of fps, rts and rpgs they are known for.
MMO wish list:
-Changeable worlds
-Solid non level based game
-Sharks with lasers attached to their heads
If EA were the only publisher of MMO's I would quit this genre alltogether.
I would never invest time into something they were involved with because I know that the very same second the game would turn less then a 30% profit they WILL shut it down, no attempts will be made to keep it alive, nor will any changes.
Not saying that it will do bad, chances are slim to be honest, but they are there.
In an ironic way EA is very predictable this way.
They are the Bloody monsanto corporation of gaming.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by Jerek_
I wonder if you honestly even believe what you type, or if you live in a made up world of facts.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Except for the fact that EA doesn't own Warhammer. They own Mythic. This basically means, that the quality check is not done by *rushed 1 year development crappy movie-games* EA.
Which is good and the prospect of investing in this monster of a game is probably what turned EA over. They don't want to control, they simply offer money, to gain money.
(Bonus for both companies I'd say) But yes, as soon as EA starts messing with the content, you can pretty much say the game has died.
As it stands right now ...WAR will more than cover the costs so long as the product is good. They already have more than enough people interested in playing including many from WOW itself. If the finished product is good then they may gain even more subscribers after initial release just as WOW did. If they do not release a good finished product, you will see many coming from WOW going back to WOW. As for other customers, they may ride it out to see where it goes and give it a little time.
I believe WAR will have a good release though, they know they cant afford not to. Not having a good release will lose too many customers. They know the position there in right now and I see them cashing in and not making any mistakes. Next year I see WAR falling into the top 3 MMORPG's by active subscriber numbers ....not counting F2P and item shop games. Beat WOW though? Most likely not, but I think as far as games go, this will end up putting up numbers above that of Lineage 2.
I believe EA does have very high expectations of WAR. Higher financial expectations than will probably not be met
EA has a track record for being the "Darwin theory incarnate" of computer gaming. They buy companies, and if those companies don't make an immediate profit, no matter how good the game is, the company gets to learn first hand what "Natural Selection" is...the hard way. Just look at Westwood and Troika.
Mythic knew of this reputation of EA, as the Grim Reaper of promising companies, so they prepared and made very specific what THEIR EXPECTATIONS WERE before they were bought. They also made very sure in their contracts that EA would not go "Natural Selection" on them.
EA cant just break up Mythic and scatter their employee's if they don't meet or exceed the financial expectations the board members have set. EA has no direct control over Mythic or the WARHAMMER IP. Which puts EA in a very odd position for once. They must SUPPORT Mythic and cannot directly intervene with either Mythic or Games Workshop.
That being said, I believe EA is hoping for a WoW killer, they wont get it, but they are hoping for it. The amount of money they are spending on promotions alone bare proof of this statement. All EA's actions in the past have been to further their monopolies on markets and to increase the popularity of those games while destroying (not just beating) their competiton. Take the exclusive purchase of the football lisense as an example.
Paul, Richard and the rest of Mythic know better though, I am quite sure that they have high expectations as well but not as high as EA.
I believe the best EA can hope for is a lucrative monthly game to earn steady income. I am sure EA would love to set their sights on dominating the market. But this is not the game that will do so.
Honestly, none of the above matters, EA has no direct control over either Mythic or Games workshop. So in this case they just have to take what they can get.
But either way EA comes out winners: At the very least, they will get a steady month based income from this game for years to come. So someone in EA must have been thinking about the long term, for once, when they brokered this deal.
To beat WoW, Mythic doesn't have to beat the 9 mil. They just have to half WoW's subscribers. And in the current light, I even doubt that's going to be hard.