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Population modelling - Server balance
Javaira
Member Posts: 38
Recently I have learnt how to do population modelling, using linearisation of differential equations (math) and because I am about to go on holiday I thought I might try to do some population modelling for WAR.
What I might be able to produce would be a set of graphs that show the effect of different factors on the population and maybe we can see what it is that Mythic can do to help balance the populations.
So what I need is a list of things that people think effect their choice of realm or why they might leave to play another side.
Some of the things I have thought of are.
Ease of levelling in one faction over another.
People joining to be with friends.
People leaving due to being the underdogs.
People joining to be the underdogs.
initial population - coolness factor
General growth.
General loss.
Population limit/Server limit.
Hopefully factors like FOTM class and nerfing will balance out equally between each faction and effect the relative populations equally. Obviously though if you nerf a whole lot of classes in one faction, that faction will suffer a drop compared to the other faction.
I won't know how much each of these factors will effect the population but I can develop a system that means you could hypothesise the effect and see how much it changes the balance. Some factors may not have huge effect as they will have damping factors built in.
Anyway I am inspired, does anyone have any things they think has a big impact on faction population, or server balance?
WAR is not WOW - http://javairasfolly.jandell.net/?page_id=377
www.afkcafe.com
Comments
People may also change servers based on a certain guild.
i think it is the size of your genitals that determine which server you belong to.
Actually I was trying to limit the model to faction populations, not server vs server.
Still it would effect the total server population as would the different server rulesets.
I might include it.
Large genitals = good roleplaying. Truth!
I wonder if the roleplaying server will be well populated?
WAR is not WOW - http://javairasfolly.jandell.net/?page_id=377
www.afkcafe.com
In that case people may still go to s specific faction based on a guild. I have seen many situations where people will reroll on a different faction to be a part of a certain guild.
I thought I had sort of covered that with joining to be with friends, but the number of major guilds could effect population balance.
If for instance one faction had several large well organised guilds, then people would be interested in joining them for an improved gaming experience. Not to mention being part of a well organised guild normally leads to better gear, easier leveling and winning more often RVR.
Yes, it most certain could effect population balance.
WAR is not WOW - http://javairasfolly.jandell.net/?page_id=377
www.afkcafe.com
I would add how good the toons look. Everyone want their toon to look good.
There are a million and one reasons why people chose one side or the other. Some obvious, some extremely obscure. Example:
I'm leaning towards Chaos because i've always loved orcs and goblins as character races. Pretty common reason why folk might choose Chaos. However, i HATE dark elves. We're talkin the fury of a thousand suns here. Nothing against the race themselves you understand, but the hordes of morons that ejaculate at the ver thought of them and play them at every opportunity because 'they just look so cool and sinister'. To me, those people rank right up there with folk who name their elf 'Legolaz' or their shaman 'Herbmaster420'. They have absolutely no imagination. So for that reason i'll play Order JUST to have the opportunity to kill kill kill every dark elf i see. Obscure reason for playing on the side of Order (least i think it is. if there are any anit-dark elf guilds forming out there please lemme know
)
So in the end i'll probably end up siding with the Order. My hatred of the dark elf community simply overrides all else. Computing all the reasons for choosing one side or another seems daunting to me, but good luck to ya! Am interested to see what you come up with
I think that could be part of the general growth factor. General growth is new people who join up or move from another server.
For instance Order might have a slightly lower growth co-efficient if we want to see what happens when people find Order less cool. Obviously we won't actually know if more people find destruction more attractive than Order, but we can see what effect one being more attractive than the other has on the entire server population and faction balance.
If it has a big influence then this would be what Mythic would need to concentrate on to make server population balanced, but if over time these things balance out due to other effects, then it isn't such a big deal.
In my thinking though, it would make sense to have a class on each faction that appeals to the same type of person. Then there is a 50/50 chance of them picking either side.
For instance Destruction has the big ugly side all sewn up, there isn't anything on the Order side that is similar. My son wants to play an orc, no matter how cool any of the Order classes are, none of them will satisfy him the same way an orc will.
Both sides seem to offer the sexy cool thing though, so that should keep things pretty even as those sort of classes seem to be very popular.
WAR is not WOW - http://javairasfolly.jandell.net/?page_id=377
www.afkcafe.com
It may be interesting to see plots of population modeling where every single factor is estimated. You could save time and just draw some lines with crayon and paper like the fed statisticians do. No one knows the difference.
And remember: Statistics are like bikinis, what they reveal is considerable but what they conceal is vital.
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"Everything is awesome. Fundamentally."
Yes, the perceived size of your avatar's dancing banana will be one big (or average or small or nonexistent) factor.
Good cyber-boobs and butts will be another.
~~~
Never mind. I am just enjoying my insanity way too much today.
~ Ancient Membership ~