ok you all say that wow wount be going anywhere.. i agree but.. wow is an old game kind of outdated but war has better graphics probable better gameplay (they are gona revulutionize it ) and ofcourse RvR gameplay, In war you will kinda need some skill not like wow weere u dont need so much skill (but u do need some thats why i get piessed of of people that say that u dont need it ) in dont play wow on retail but on private(so i know how wow is ) i think that wow will still be numero uno but war will probable get about 2 milion subs in two years or in one year (AoC about the same maybe a litlle more )
WoW is probably the only mmorpg that was overhyped and met pretty much everyone's expectations that ladies and gentlemen is the impact of first impression.
People who start WoW at lvl1, never trying it befoe will be amazed and will be having fun right off the bat, they stepping stone is made perfectly to increase in level as you level up. Only as a player who has already played to cap level ect will the first level areas feel a little boring since you ain't the new guy, you know what you are doing but you don't have that many abilities to make off, which you slowly got more and more of to handle.
WoW is just the mmorpg able to catch so many new comers so quickly because the first impression WoW gives is incredible well made.
You never get a second chance for a first impression.
lol you think AoC is going to get more subs than WAR? I dont have anything agianst AoC but its not even going to come close. WoW will stay on top with WAR right below it.
ok you all say that wow wount be going anywhere.. i agree but.. wow is an old game kind of outdated but war has better graphics probable better gameplay (they are gona revulutionize it ) and ofcourse RvR gameplay, In war you will kinda need some skill not like wow weere u dont need so much skill (but u do need some thats why i get piessed of of people that say that u dont need it ) in dont play wow on retail but on private(so i know how wow is ) i think that wow will still be numero uno but war will probable get about 2 milion subs in two years or in one year (AoC about the same maybe a litlle more )
that is a wild guess to say the least....
WAR is a pvp RvR centric game, it's not broad or wide in the customer target group compared to WoW.
AoC is also more or less in a direction of selective people, so it won't be having that many subs by far either, even though i'll most likely get AoC i honestly doubt it will go beyond 400k.
WAR is built around something many people normally laughed about.... board game, card game, and roleplaying? I am sorry, even though WAR will probably be a success and have 200k+ subs i hardly believe it will ever reach 2 million, just look at LOTR, i am pretty sure that lore and universe is better known around the world than WAR lore is, so to that "logic" LOTR should have had atleast 2-3 million or more subs but it don't. It barely has 200k
You never get a second chance for a first impression.
So true - thats why the first impressions of WAR and AOC will determine the popularity of those games. If they manage to get it right then we are in for a ride Then Blizzard will have to work overtime.
But tbh - I feel only WAR will have chance to make good first impression. AOC has new fighting system that has already frustrated quite abit of the Beta testers, causing FC to remake it. It still has pretty high annoyance lvl Im told.
First impression brings you players. Good longterm gameplay and balanced game is what keeps players playing - and paying. WoW has done that brilliantly until now. Will they be able to balance the game again ? If not then it will be AstaLavista for many.
I would have never predicted WOW to be the gigantic success that it is. Yeah, I thought it was fun, but 10m + subs and a billion a year in revenue? No, never expected that. So any guesses I make about the success of the upcoming MMO crop is likely to be just as inaccurate.
But I'd say WOW will be around for many more years to come, making tons of money for Blizzard until they release their next game.
Who the hell are you, and why should I care? Congrats! You are a victim of Trollstar!
ok you all say that wow wount be going anywhere.. i agree but.. wow is an old game kind of outdated but war has better graphics probable better gameplay (they are gona revulutionize it ) and ofcourse RvR gameplay, In war you will kinda need some skill not like wow weere u dont need so much skill (but u do need some thats why i get piessed of of people that say that u dont need it ) in dont play wow on retail but on private(so i know how wow is ) i think that wow will still be numero uno but war will probable get about 2 milion subs in two years or in one year (AoC about the same maybe a litlle more )
that is a wild guess to say the least....
WAR is a pvp RvR centric game, it's not broad or wide in the customer target group compared to WoW.
AoC is also more or less in a direction of selective people, so it won't be having that many subs by far either, even though i'll most likely get AoC i honestly doubt it will go beyond 400k.
WAR is built around something many people normally laughed about.... board game, card game, and roleplaying? I am sorry, even though WAR will probably be a success and have 200k+ subs i hardly believe it will ever reach 2 million, just look at LOTR, i am pretty sure that lore and universe is better known around the world than WAR lore is, so to that "logic" LOTR should have had atleast 2-3 million or more subs but it don't. It barely has 200k
haha 200k subs when they have almost 600,000 people trying to get into beta? You are in for a suprise as well. I would say they will break well over 1 million with in the first year.
LoTRO didnt do very well because the only pvp they had was monster play. WAR is being made by Mythic who made RvR and one of the best gen one MMOs and LoTRO was made by Turbine or something like that. No offence but you are so far off on this. If half the people signed up for beta pick up WAR at release which Im sure it will be a lot higher than that. That would be 300k subs in the first month and thats just the people who follow MMOs not the general MMO population a very small percent. On top of all that the game is still 6 months out that number is just going to grow.
ok you all say that wow wount be going anywhere.. i agree but.. wow is an old game kind of outdated but war has better graphics probable better gameplay (they are gona revulutionize it ) and ofcourse RvR gameplay, In war you will kinda need some skill not like wow weere u dont need so much skill (but u do need some thats why i get piessed of of people that say that u dont need it ) in dont play wow on retail but on private(so i know how wow is ) i think that wow will still be numero uno but war will probable get about 2 milion subs in two years or in one year (AoC about the same maybe a litlle more )
that is a wild guess to say the least....
WAR is a pvp RvR centric game, it's not broad or wide in the customer target group compared to WoW.
AoC is also more or less in a direction of selective people, so it won't be having that many subs by far either, even though i'll most likely get AoC i honestly doubt it will go beyond 400k.
WAR is built around something many people normally laughed about.... board game, card game, and roleplaying? I am sorry, even though WAR will probably be a success and have 200k+ subs i hardly believe it will ever reach 2 million, just look at LOTR, i am pretty sure that lore and universe is better known around the world than WAR lore is, so to that "logic" LOTR should have had atleast 2-3 million or more subs but it don't. It barely has 200k
haha 200k subs when they have almost 600,000 people trying to get into beta? You are in for a suprise as well. I would say they will break well over 1 million with in the first year.
LoTRO didnt do very well because the only pvp they had was monster play. WAR is being made by Mythic who made RvR and one of the best gen one MMOs and LoTRO was made by Turbine or something like that. No offence but you are so far off on this. If half the people signed up for beta pick up WAR at release which Im sure it will be a lot higher than that. That would be 300k subs in the first month and thats just the people who follow MMOs not the general MMO population a very small percent. On top of all that the game is still 6 months out that number is just going to grow.
If they have 600k expressing an interest in Beta at this time, then it doesn't bode particularly well for the game coming anywhere near WoW. With 600k Beta applicants, you may just get a 100% return of them if your game is rock solid, polished and completely without issues during the beta phase. Any deviation from that will cost you subscribers at a rapid rate.
Currently they have 600k beta applicants. They already had one beta which they then closed for an extended amount of time. For those initial beta testers that first impression has already beed made. Obviously the game was not at the polished level needed at that time, and the extended closing of beta seems to indicate there was alot left to fix. So strike a ton of those early testers from the list of paid subscribers. Which means the game will probably get around 75% return on those interested in the bets. Thats about 450k... which is probably pretty close to what WAR is going to settle into. It's basic target market and gameplay style is as a vastly improved DAoC style gameplay. Thats a good and succesful model for a game. But it is not the all inclusive one that Blizzard has been using.
WAR will be fun, WAR will be profittable, WAR will probably not come anywhere near WoW's numbers unless there is a huge alement to the game that they have been hiding from everyone all of this time.
Yeah I never said it would over take WoW. I said WoW will stay on top with WAR second. WoW = Beatles and WAR is trying to be led zeppelin. Its funny though your numbers are off but only time will tell but WAR will break over 1 million subs in the first year. To say the beta testers werent happy is just something you made up I thought the beta was fun and enjoyed it more than I do WoW and almost everyone I talked to in beta cant wait to get it, had a hater or two but they thought it should of been a finished game and forgot they were in beta or something. Hell Lineage 2 carried 4.5 millions subs and that was one of the most hardcore pvp games. DAoC a gen 1 game had more than 450k so to say that WAR is only going to have 450k total subs is just way off to say the least.
Yeah come on I mean I know its the WoW forums and all but come on. 200k lol? 450k? They will do more than that on release and they are going to do better than DAoC and Lineage 2 which I remeber having 5.4 or something at its peak about the time WoW came out (L2 a big grind, hard econ and insane pvp based game). They will take more than 450k away from WoW alone (more around 1-2 million away from WoW). I would say they will break well over 5-7 million subs before its all said and done. You guys either dont know the market or just pulling numbers out of the air. They would of never even started working on the game if they believe they would only get that many subs lol.
I would have never predicted WOW to be the gigantic success that it is. Yeah, I thought it was fun, but 10m + subs and a billion a year in revenue? No, never expected that. So any guesses I make about the success of the upcoming MMO crop is likely to be just as inaccurate. But I'd say WOW will be around for many more years to come, making tons of money for Blizzard until they release their next game.
I did predict WoW to have subs in the MILLIONS, however I also predict it would have crumbled by now.
I am disappointed at my fellow gamers and the human race as a whole. :P Guess they need more time.
Raiding is hurting WoW just like a DoT, and Blizzard. DoT takes time, SOE after all still hasn't realize that, obviously.
I predict WAR will be 4 times as successfull as DAoC...no idea about the lenght however. If they would manage a good PvE system they would be the top dog, but they are miserably failing PvE-wise.
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The only thing WoW is scared of is Aion. Aion could easily edge WoW out of the asian markets, and is going to be a huge competitor in Europe/US. I really only see WoW as scared of Aion. I mean lets face it, AoC and War will be lucky to get 500,000 subscribers. Aion should have four times that on launch day in the NA.
In every country and in every age, the priest has been hostile to liberty. He is always in alliance with the despot, abetting his abuses in return for protection to his own.
WoW is much larger game than WAR and by the time the expansion comes out WoW will be larger, more content and more things to do. Hardcore players of WAR will migrate their way back to WoW because there will be nothing to do besides raiding or RvR. I've seen it happen with LOTR and EQ2. Players get in it and come back. Blizzard has nothing to worry about. And to be honest, WAR looks like a complete clone of WoW, making it not worthy of my money a month.
Originally posted by Sharajat The only thing WoW is scared of is Aion. Aion could easily edge WoW out of the asian markets, and is going to be a huge competitor in Europe/US. I really only see WoW as scared of Aion. I mean lets face it, AoC and War will be lucky to get 500,000 subscribers. Aion should have four times that on launch day in the NA.
Not gonna happen, Aion may work in Asia, but it will fail completely in the West.
If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site : http://mmodata.blogspot.be/ Favorite MMORPG's : DAoC pre ToA-NF, SWG Pre CU-NGE, EVE Online
Originally posted by Oph8 This is how I see it. WoW is much larger game than WAR and by the time the expansion comes out WoW will be larger, more content and more things to do. Hardcore players of WAR will migrate their way back to WoW because there will be nothing to do besides raiding or RvR. I've seen it happen with LOTR and EQ2. Players get in it and come back. Blizzard has nothing to worry about. And to be honest, WAR looks like a complete clone of WoW, making it not worthy of my money a month.
Hehe, another mmorpg newbie, yes, please stick with WoW
If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site : http://mmodata.blogspot.be/ Favorite MMORPG's : DAoC pre ToA-NF, SWG Pre CU-NGE, EVE Online
Well heres my 2 cents. I like PVP but I like raiding even more than PVP. Since War is pretty much PVP oriented that takes raiding out of the equation. AOC seems to have some good raiding prospects and unless its like wow was before pre-BC where PVP gear was on par with PVE gear then I won't be trying it. The addition of resilience ruined pvp in WOW. Now raiding really has no point in WOW other that seeing the story unfold. That would be great if you only had to do it 1 time instead of 40. PVP gear is much easier to get and is actually better than the PVE gear. Not to mention that a majority of the content is only available to a small fraction of the community. They really need to wake up and make 10 man versions of the 25 man instances. Depending on the amount of people you take in will determine how much loot drops. That way everyone can enjoy the content they create and progress through the game. I think if Blizzard reworked a few things there wouldnt be anything that could topple them.
WoW isn't just a game anymore...it's become pop culture. I'll forgive the many of you whom are far removed from that aspect, and thus have no understanding of it. Here is a quick break down.
The larger the culture phenomenon, the longer it lives. As of right now....WoW is the gaming worlds Brittany Spears. With that in mind, Brit has all but "died" on a meaningful contribution level but REMAINS the biggest selling pop culture reference in the media. I suspect WoW shall remain for many years to come, especially since games like UO are still kicking even though they should have long died off. They aren't pop culture, this is.
That said, I understand why so many of you are now screaming about the "kids" and "newbs" that were cutting teeth on WoW. It shows just how far removed you are from society, and how much you hate natural conformity. I find that to be rather silly, and find your hatred of the game based on little more than the fact you hate pop culture to be intellectually insulting. The game is not fed from the teet of children friends...it is labored on the backs on the previously untapped massive adult population which did not previously play these games.
Also, telling these players to "stick to WoW" is a sure fire way to guarantee you will NEVER have another game to play. The industry just gained 10 million players it did not have, and the bottom line these new companies are going to base their marketing on will reflect that. You can try and be elitist all you want, and think that you have some magical "understanding" of how games SHOULD be...but frankly all you are doing is showing us that you are truly a tool and understand nothing more than how to be a jerk off on the internet at every given chance. If those players DO stick to WoW, there will be NO new MMO to survive ever again. You can bet your bottom dollar on that.
WoW isn't just a game anymore...it's become pop culture. I'll forgive the many of you whom are far removed from that aspect, and thus have no understanding of it. Here is a quick break down.
The larger the culture phenomenon, the longer it lives. As of right now....WoW is the gaming worlds Brittany Spears. With that in mind, Brit has all but "died" on a meaningful contribution level but REMAINS the biggest selling pop culture reference in the media. I suspect WoW shall remain for many years to come, especially since games like UO are still kicking even though they should have long died off. They aren't pop culture, this is.
That said, I understand why so many of you are now screaming about the "kids" and "newbs" that were cutting teeth on WoW. It shows just how far removed you are from society, and how much you hate natural conformity. I find that to be rather silly, and find your hatred of the game based on little more than the fact you hate pop culture to be intellectually insulting. The game is not fed from the teet of children friends...it is labored on the backs on the previously untapped massive adult population which did not previously play these games.
Also, telling these players to "stick to WoW" is a sure fire way to guarantee you will NEVER have another game to play. The industry just gained 10 million players it did not have, and the bottom line these new companies are going to base their marketing on will reflect that. You can try and be elitist all you want, and think that you have some magical "understanding" of how games SHOULD be...but frankly all you are doing is showing us that you are truly a tool and understand nothing more than how to be a jerk off on the internet at every given chance. If those players DO stick to WoW, there will be NO new MMO to survive ever again. You can bet your bottom dollar on that.
This is why I find this whole post funny. You guys dont even know the facts or the market at all. WoW has 4.5 million active subs in NA and EU which you buy boxes. They have 5.5 million subs in Asia where you dont buy the box. Now in the NA and EU they have sold over 20 million copies of WoW. That would mean that there are almost 3 times as many people who played WoW and quit than playing the game right now. Over 15.5 million players have quit WoW in NA and EU. So that is why most people want WoW players to stay with WoW because not only does a new game not need them by looking at the marketing and game play they dont even want them. If WAR wanted WoW players dont you think they would of made a raiding gear centric game and not a pvp game? You guys act like 10 million is some number no one has ever came close to. Fact is there are a number of games with 4.5 million subs and all the way up to 7 million subs.
This is why I find this whole post funny. You guys dont even know the facts or the market at all. WoW has 4.5 million active subs in NA and EU which you buy boxes. They have 5.5 million subs in Asia where you dont buy the box. Now in the NA and EU they have sold over 20 million copies of WoW. That would mean that there are almost 3 times as many people who played WoW and quit than playing the game right now. Over 15.5 million players have quit WoW in NA and EU. So that is why most people want WoW players to stay with WoW because not only does a new game not need them by looking at the marketing and game play they dont even want them. If WAR wanted WoW players dont you think they would of made a raiding gear centric game and not a pvp game?
That is a bold assumption you make there. Let me ask you this, what other game has sold 20 million copies? MMO's, I mean. None. Not a single one.
So lets just play with that logic for a minute here. 15 million people (of which whom likely never played an MMO before) bought WoW and dropped it. Do you honestly think these people are looking for another MMO? HONESTLY?
When reviewing a market, you don't review oddball random highs. You watch consistency. For example, if I wanted to make a sure analysis of the fast food market in a given town I would look at the consistent business over the years. I would not just take a sampling based on one magical year where some massive "once-in-a-lifetime" festival happened and the market saw a massive increase for that moment.
That said, WoW has a consistent 8-10 million strong playerbase. Outside of SWG, the other major market MMO's have not dumped a ton of players into that game either. EQ is still very strong, as is EQ2. EVE has 250,000 players and still growing. What that means is that, on average, WoW has pulled a massive new consumer base into the market. The ones they lost are VERY likely not going to be consumers who are coming back to this genre. If they were...you would already have seen a MASSIVE increase in other MMO's population to compensate for what 15 million boxes they lost.
Another thing to note is that current US economy is on the "suck and fail". That means that if willing players aren't ALREADY in this market, they don't have the money to be there when WAR of AoC come out either.
You very literally ARE looking at the WoW playerbase if you want to see the game succeed. There are not new players jumping out of the woodwork right now. Those that do are just jumping into WoW anyway. There is no magical stash of players just waiting for your elitism to strike them. To succeed now, the games must take players from WoW or flounder. This point is just going to get worse as this market is flooded with tons of new P2P MMOs coming out. I suppose you can hope for some of the older games to shut down, but most of them are living off die-hards and that type of player isn't likely to leave anytime soon. No, the new wave of MMO's is very much going to rely on new player interest gained from the influx of players to WoW. When they launch, their success will be defined by how many current MMO players they impress. There just are not enough "loose" ones left.
Haha yeah this is pointless. Your right none of those 15.5 million will play another MMO because if they didnt like WoW god knows they wont like anything and it was a one time thing for all of them.
Haha yeah this is pointless. Your right none of those 15.5 million will play another MMO because if they didnt like WoW god knows they wont like anything and it was a one time thing for all of them.
Perhaps then you could enlighten me as to where these 15 million players are now? They certainly aren't playing any of the other few hundred MMO's out there. I haven't noticed an incredible change in subscribers to any of them, which leads me to believe they aren't even looking or bothering to try them. In fact....the vast majority of testers I've seen have come from WoW directly, some from the EQ series.
I think you assume far too much about WHY 20 million boxes sold. I know that almost all of my friends had multiple accounts that they eventually dropped because they didn't either want to have them or because they didn't have the money any longer. I also know that alot of the people we got to try the game that DIDN'T stay also reported that they just didn't like MMO's at all.
And even if a few of those "missing" boxes somehow find their way to new MMO's, do you honestly think it will garner a strong consistent player base without touching pre-existing ones? Honestly....are you really that daft? If these games don't get WoW players, there is virtually no chance at all they will survive. ESPECIALLY AoC and WAR, because those two games are offering similar gameplay with different focuses. If someone didn't like WoW, I can understand them playing EQ or EVE instead. Those games offer something really different. WAR and AoC are just refining the market, offering a twist to a plan which has already proven successful. There is nothing wrong with that, and I feel its the best move. Make a game as easy to play and fun as WoW, but with different design focus.
But if they HATED WoW, and aren't playing anything else...what in the hell makes you think they are waiting on WAR?
That said, WoW has a consistent 8-10 million strong playerbase. Outside of SWG, the other major market MMO's have not dumped a ton of players into that game either. EQ is still very strong, as is EQ2. EVE has 250,000 players and still growing. What that means is that, on average, WoW has pulled a massive new consumer base into the market. The ones they lost are VERY likely not going to be consumers who are coming back to this genre. If they were...you would already have seen a MASSIVE increase in other MMO's population to compensate for what 15 million boxes they lost.
Another thing to note is that current US economy is on the "suck and fail". That means that if willing players aren't ALREADY in this market, they don't have the money to be there when WAR of AoC come out either.
You very literally ARE looking at the WoW playerbase if you want to see the game succeed. There are not new players jumping out of the woodwork right now. Those that do are just jumping into WoW anyway. There is no magical stash of players just waiting for your elitism to strike them. To succeed now, the games must take players from WoW or flounder. This point is just going to get worse as this market is flooded with tons of new P2P MMOs coming out. I suppose you can hope for some of the older games to shut down, but most of them are living off die-hards and that type of player isn't likely to leave anytime soon. No, the new wave of MMO's is very much going to rely on new player interest gained from the influx of players to WoW. When they launch, their success will be defined by how many current MMO players they impress. There just are not enough "loose" ones left.
EXACTLY!
I keep hearing about massive amounts of people quitting WoW because it's going downhill. Well, if that is the case, they are not going to other games.
People need to understand that a good many people who play WoW are not just into mmo's. They are into WoW.
WoW has become more of a game, it is a social happening. Some of those players might go to other games but given that other games aren't really set up like WoW it is more than possible that they would either wait for a "WoW like" game or discontinue mmo's.
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ok you all say that wow wount be going anywhere.. i agree but.. wow is an old game kind of outdated but war has better graphics probable better gameplay (they are gona revulutionize it ) and ofcourse RvR gameplay, In war you will kinda need some skill not like wow weere u dont need so much skill (but u do need some thats why i get piessed of of people that say that u dont need it ) in dont play wow on retail but on private(so i know how wow is ) i think that wow will still be numero uno but war will probable get about 2 milion subs in two years or in one year (AoC about the same maybe a litlle more )
BTW....
WoW is probably the only mmorpg that was overhyped and met pretty much everyone's expectations that ladies and gentlemen is the impact of first impression.
People who start WoW at lvl1, never trying it befoe will be amazed and will be having fun right off the bat, they stepping stone is made perfectly to increase in level as you level up. Only as a player who has already played to cap level ect will the first level areas feel a little boring since you ain't the new guy, you know what you are doing but you don't have that many abilities to make off, which you slowly got more and more of to handle.
WoW is just the mmorpg able to catch so many new comers so quickly because the first impression WoW gives is incredible well made.
You never get a second chance for a first impression.
Take the Magic: The Gathering 'What Color Are You?' Quiz.
lol you think AoC is going to get more subs than WAR? I dont have anything agianst AoC but its not even going to come close. WoW will stay on top with WAR right below it.
that is a wild guess to say the least....
WAR is a pvp RvR centric game, it's not broad or wide in the customer target group compared to WoW.
AoC is also more or less in a direction of selective people, so it won't be having that many subs by far either, even though i'll most likely get AoC i honestly doubt it will go beyond 400k.
WAR is built around something many people normally laughed about.... board game, card game, and roleplaying? I am sorry, even though WAR will probably be a success and have 200k+ subs i hardly believe it will ever reach 2 million, just look at LOTR, i am pretty sure that lore and universe is better known around the world than WAR lore is, so to that "logic" LOTR should have had atleast 2-3 million or more subs but it don't. It barely has 200k
Take the Magic: The Gathering 'What Color Are You?' Quiz.
So true - thats why the first impressions of WAR and AOC will determine the popularity of those games. If they manage to get it right then we are in for a ride
But tbh - I feel only WAR will have chance to make good first impression. AOC has new fighting system that has already frustrated quite abit of the Beta testers, causing FC to remake it. It still has pretty high annoyance lvl Im told.
First impression brings you players. Good longterm gameplay and balanced game is what keeps players playing - and paying. WoW has done that brilliantly until now. Will they be able to balance the game again ? If not then it will be AstaLavista for many.
I would have never predicted WOW to be the gigantic success that it is. Yeah, I thought it was fun, but 10m + subs and a billion a year in revenue? No, never expected that. So any guesses I make about the success of the upcoming MMO crop is likely to be just as inaccurate.
But I'd say WOW will be around for many more years to come, making tons of money for Blizzard until they release their next game.
Who the hell are you, and why should I care?
Congrats! You are a victim of Trollstar!
that is a wild guess to say the least....
WAR is a pvp RvR centric game, it's not broad or wide in the customer target group compared to WoW.
AoC is also more or less in a direction of selective people, so it won't be having that many subs by far either, even though i'll most likely get AoC i honestly doubt it will go beyond 400k.
WAR is built around something many people normally laughed about.... board game, card game, and roleplaying? I am sorry, even though WAR will probably be a success and have 200k+ subs i hardly believe it will ever reach 2 million, just look at LOTR, i am pretty sure that lore and universe is better known around the world than WAR lore is, so to that "logic" LOTR should have had atleast 2-3 million or more subs but it don't. It barely has 200k
haha 200k subs when they have almost 600,000 people trying to get into beta? You are in for a suprise as well. I would say they will break well over 1 million with in the first year.
LoTRO didnt do very well because the only pvp they had was monster play. WAR is being made by Mythic who made RvR and one of the best gen one MMOs and LoTRO was made by Turbine or something like that. No offence but you are so far off on this. If half the people signed up for beta pick up WAR at release which Im sure it will be a lot higher than that. That would be 300k subs in the first month and thats just the people who follow MMOs not the general MMO population a very small percent. On top of all that the game is still 6 months out that number is just going to grow.
that is a wild guess to say the least....
WAR is a pvp RvR centric game, it's not broad or wide in the customer target group compared to WoW.
AoC is also more or less in a direction of selective people, so it won't be having that many subs by far either, even though i'll most likely get AoC i honestly doubt it will go beyond 400k.
WAR is built around something many people normally laughed about.... board game, card game, and roleplaying? I am sorry, even though WAR will probably be a success and have 200k+ subs i hardly believe it will ever reach 2 million, just look at LOTR, i am pretty sure that lore and universe is better known around the world than WAR lore is, so to that "logic" LOTR should have had atleast 2-3 million or more subs but it don't. It barely has 200k
haha 200k subs when they have almost 600,000 people trying to get into beta? You are in for a suprise as well. I would say they will break well over 1 million with in the first year.
LoTRO didnt do very well because the only pvp they had was monster play. WAR is being made by Mythic who made RvR and one of the best gen one MMOs and LoTRO was made by Turbine or something like that. No offence but you are so far off on this. If half the people signed up for beta pick up WAR at release which Im sure it will be a lot higher than that. That would be 300k subs in the first month and thats just the people who follow MMOs not the general MMO population a very small percent. On top of all that the game is still 6 months out that number is just going to grow.
If they have 600k expressing an interest in Beta at this time, then it doesn't bode particularly well for the game coming anywhere near WoW. With 600k Beta applicants, you may just get a 100% return of them if your game is rock solid, polished and completely without issues during the beta phase. Any deviation from that will cost you subscribers at a rapid rate.
Currently they have 600k beta applicants. They already had one beta which they then closed for an extended amount of time. For those initial beta testers that first impression has already beed made. Obviously the game was not at the polished level needed at that time, and the extended closing of beta seems to indicate there was alot left to fix. So strike a ton of those early testers from the list of paid subscribers. Which means the game will probably get around 75% return on those interested in the bets. Thats about 450k... which is probably pretty close to what WAR is going to settle into. It's basic target market and gameplay style is as a vastly improved DAoC style gameplay. Thats a good and succesful model for a game. But it is not the all inclusive one that Blizzard has been using.
WAR will be fun, WAR will be profittable, WAR will probably not come anywhere near WoW's numbers unless there is a huge alement to the game that they have been hiding from everyone all of this time.
Yeah I never said it would over take WoW. I said WoW will stay on top with WAR second. WoW = Beatles and WAR is trying to be led zeppelin. Its funny though your numbers are off but only time will tell but WAR will break over 1 million subs in the first year. To say the beta testers werent happy is just something you made up I thought the beta was fun and enjoyed it more than I do WoW and almost everyone I talked to in beta cant wait to get it, had a hater or two but they thought it should of been a finished game and forgot they were in beta or something. Hell Lineage 2 carried 4.5 millions subs and that was one of the most hardcore pvp games. DAoC a gen 1 game had more than 450k so to say that WAR is only going to have 450k total subs is just way off to say the least.
Yeah come on I mean I know its the WoW forums and all but come on. 200k lol? 450k? They will do more than that on release and they are going to do better than DAoC and Lineage 2 which I remeber having 5.4 or something at its peak about the time WoW came out (L2 a big grind, hard econ and insane pvp based game). They will take more than 450k away from WoW alone (more around 1-2 million away from WoW). I would say they will break well over 5-7 million subs before its all said and done. You guys either dont know the market or just pulling numbers out of the air. They would of never even started working on the game if they believe they would only get that many subs lol.
Sig by WhiskeyJack1
I feel bad for the people who think WAR is going to be good. They just don't know what Mythic is like, because they haven't played DAoC since release.
And I also feel sorry for the europeans who will play WAR and will have to suffer GOA.
I did predict WoW to have subs in the MILLIONS, however I also predict it would have crumbled by now.
I am disappointed at my fellow gamers and the human race as a whole. :P Guess they need more time.
Raiding is hurting WoW just like a DoT, and Blizzard. DoT takes time, SOE after all still hasn't realize that, obviously.
I predict WAR will be 4 times as successfull as DAoC...no idea about the lenght however. If they would manage a good PvE system they would be the top dog, but they are miserably failing PvE-wise.
- "If I understand you well, you are telling me until next time. " - Ren
The only thing WoW is scared of is Aion. Aion could easily edge WoW out of the asian markets, and is going to be a huge competitor in Europe/US. I really only see WoW as scared of Aion. I mean lets face it, AoC and War will be lucky to get 500,000 subscribers. Aion should have four times that on launch day in the NA.
In every country and in every age, the priest has been hostile to liberty. He is always in alliance with the despot, abetting his abuses in return for protection to his own.
-Thomas Jefferson
This is how I see it.
WoW is much larger game than WAR and by the time the expansion comes out WoW will be larger, more content and more things to do. Hardcore players of WAR will migrate their way back to WoW because there will be nothing to do besides raiding or RvR. I've seen it happen with LOTR and EQ2. Players get in it and come back. Blizzard has nothing to worry about. And to be honest, WAR looks like a complete clone of WoW, making it not worthy of my money a month.
"Everything is mine and your woman too"
No cause WAR will only appeal to a few hardcore fans like DAOC, i've spoke to some Warhammer tabletop fans and they don't care for it.
Not gonna happen, Aion may work in Asia, but it will fail completely in the West.
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Hehe, another mmorpg newbie, yes, please stick with WoW
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WAR will do nothing on WOW
WOW will stay where it is for manny years
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waiting for ... nothing..
Well heres my 2 cents. I like PVP but I like raiding even more than PVP. Since War is pretty much PVP oriented that takes raiding out of the equation. AOC seems to have some good raiding prospects and unless its like wow was before pre-BC where PVP gear was on par with PVE gear then I won't be trying it. The addition of resilience ruined pvp in WOW. Now raiding really has no point in WOW other that seeing the story unfold. That would be great if you only had to do it 1 time instead of 40. PVP gear is much easier to get and is actually better than the PVE gear. Not to mention that a majority of the content is only available to a small fraction of the community. They really need to wake up and make 10 man versions of the 25 man instances. Depending on the amount of people you take in will determine how much loot drops. That way everyone can enjoy the content they create and progress through the game. I think if Blizzard reworked a few things there wouldnt be anything that could topple them.
Someone earlier said it best.
WoW isn't just a game anymore...it's become pop culture. I'll forgive the many of you whom are far removed from that aspect, and thus have no understanding of it. Here is a quick break down.
The larger the culture phenomenon, the longer it lives. As of right now....WoW is the gaming worlds Brittany Spears. With that in mind, Brit has all but "died" on a meaningful contribution level but REMAINS the biggest selling pop culture reference in the media. I suspect WoW shall remain for many years to come, especially since games like UO are still kicking even though they should have long died off. They aren't pop culture, this is.
That said, I understand why so many of you are now screaming about the "kids" and "newbs" that were cutting teeth on WoW. It shows just how far removed you are from society, and how much you hate natural conformity. I find that to be rather silly, and find your hatred of the game based on little more than the fact you hate pop culture to be intellectually insulting. The game is not fed from the teet of children friends...it is labored on the backs on the previously untapped massive adult population which did not previously play these games.
Also, telling these players to "stick to WoW" is a sure fire way to guarantee you will NEVER have another game to play. The industry just gained 10 million players it did not have, and the bottom line these new companies are going to base their marketing on will reflect that. You can try and be elitist all you want, and think that you have some magical "understanding" of how games SHOULD be...but frankly all you are doing is showing us that you are truly a tool and understand nothing more than how to be a jerk off on the internet at every given chance. If those players DO stick to WoW, there will be NO new MMO to survive ever again. You can bet your bottom dollar on that.
This is why I find this whole post funny. You guys dont even know the facts or the market at all. WoW has 4.5 million active subs in NA and EU which you buy boxes. They have 5.5 million subs in Asia where you dont buy the box. Now in the NA and EU they have sold over 20 million copies of WoW. That would mean that there are almost 3 times as many people who played WoW and quit than playing the game right now. Over 15.5 million players have quit WoW in NA and EU. So that is why most people want WoW players to stay with WoW because not only does a new game not need them by looking at the marketing and game play they dont even want them. If WAR wanted WoW players dont you think they would of made a raiding gear centric game and not a pvp game? You guys act like 10 million is some number no one has ever came close to. Fact is there are a number of games with 4.5 million subs and all the way up to 7 million subs.
That is a bold assumption you make there. Let me ask you this, what other game has sold 20 million copies? MMO's, I mean. None. Not a single one.
So lets just play with that logic for a minute here. 15 million people (of which whom likely never played an MMO before) bought WoW and dropped it. Do you honestly think these people are looking for another MMO? HONESTLY?
When reviewing a market, you don't review oddball random highs. You watch consistency. For example, if I wanted to make a sure analysis of the fast food market in a given town I would look at the consistent business over the years. I would not just take a sampling based on one magical year where some massive "once-in-a-lifetime" festival happened and the market saw a massive increase for that moment.
That said, WoW has a consistent 8-10 million strong playerbase. Outside of SWG, the other major market MMO's have not dumped a ton of players into that game either. EQ is still very strong, as is EQ2. EVE has 250,000 players and still growing. What that means is that, on average, WoW has pulled a massive new consumer base into the market. The ones they lost are VERY likely not going to be consumers who are coming back to this genre. If they were...you would already have seen a MASSIVE increase in other MMO's population to compensate for what 15 million boxes they lost.
Another thing to note is that current US economy is on the "suck and fail". That means that if willing players aren't ALREADY in this market, they don't have the money to be there when WAR of AoC come out either.
You very literally ARE looking at the WoW playerbase if you want to see the game succeed. There are not new players jumping out of the woodwork right now. Those that do are just jumping into WoW anyway. There is no magical stash of players just waiting for your elitism to strike them. To succeed now, the games must take players from WoW or flounder. This point is just going to get worse as this market is flooded with tons of new P2P MMOs coming out. I suppose you can hope for some of the older games to shut down, but most of them are living off die-hards and that type of player isn't likely to leave anytime soon. No, the new wave of MMO's is very much going to rely on new player interest gained from the influx of players to WoW. When they launch, their success will be defined by how many current MMO players they impress. There just are not enough "loose" ones left.
Haha yeah this is pointless. Your right none of those 15.5 million will play another MMO because if they didnt like WoW god knows they wont like anything and it was a one time thing for all of them.
Perhaps then you could enlighten me as to where these 15 million players are now? They certainly aren't playing any of the other few hundred MMO's out there. I haven't noticed an incredible change in subscribers to any of them, which leads me to believe they aren't even looking or bothering to try them. In fact....the vast majority of testers I've seen have come from WoW directly, some from the EQ series.
I think you assume far too much about WHY 20 million boxes sold. I know that almost all of my friends had multiple accounts that they eventually dropped because they didn't either want to have them or because they didn't have the money any longer. I also know that alot of the people we got to try the game that DIDN'T stay also reported that they just didn't like MMO's at all.
And even if a few of those "missing" boxes somehow find their way to new MMO's, do you honestly think it will garner a strong consistent player base without touching pre-existing ones? Honestly....are you really that daft? If these games don't get WoW players, there is virtually no chance at all they will survive. ESPECIALLY AoC and WAR, because those two games are offering similar gameplay with different focuses. If someone didn't like WoW, I can understand them playing EQ or EVE instead. Those games offer something really different. WAR and AoC are just refining the market, offering a twist to a plan which has already proven successful. There is nothing wrong with that, and I feel its the best move. Make a game as easy to play and fun as WoW, but with different design focus.
But if they HATED WoW, and aren't playing anything else...what in the hell makes you think they are waiting on WAR?
EXACTLY!
I keep hearing about massive amounts of people quitting WoW because it's going downhill. Well, if that is the case, they are not going to other games.
People need to understand that a good many people who play WoW are not just into mmo's. They are into WoW.
WoW has become more of a game, it is a social happening. Some of those players might go to other games but given that other games aren't really set up like WoW it is more than possible that they would either wait for a "WoW like" game or discontinue mmo's.
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