Howdy, Stranger!
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Quick Links
The biggest 08 title will be WAR not AOC POLL you guess the subscribers.
bezado
Member UncommonPosts: 1,127
The fact is WAR has a lower system requirement and is WOW like. Many of the WOW community have already said they are moving to WAR and you can't underestimate the many millions of people who currently play low end MMORPG's that can run on their older PC's.
We will probably see AOC get maybe 500k subscribers, perhaps less but WAR on the other hand will get over a million subscribers on the first month of release. This has everything to do with how good of a PC do you have. We already know WOW can run on a 8year old PC smoothly with a low end AGP video card, and so will WAR at launch. This gives a huge advantage to WAR and also because of what WOW did to path the road for WAR's launch.
Advantage WAR. AOC will struggle with finding that many people who can run the game decently with all that eyecandy turned on. Nobody wants to play a game like AOC on the lowest graphical setting and see how ugly the game will look, a game like AOC needs to have everything looking good or else you take away from the immersion aspect that game creates. I could run AOC max settings on my 30'' LCD but I prefer WAR over AOC for the simple fact of pure enjoyment of seeing the millions of players that will be playing. More players = better PVP.
So here is the major POLL at which we will revisit after 1month of launch of each title and try and see if any info has been released on numbers yet.
Post your predictions and also use the polls below. Whoever is closer to the subscriber numbers for the 1month period will get nothing from me 
but perhaps a forum title could be rewarded for the winner???
My guess is 2.5mill War, AOC 500k
Comments
AOC poll below
You have an interesting definition of the word "fact".
Yeah to late to take it out, I wanted to say something else then Fact. Fact being my definitive on WAR being the more popular with the most subscribers. If you look at the history of the last 4 top MMORPG's you see how WOW went from 600k subs at it's first month to over 3mill in a few months. Now that people know what to expect from WAR and how it will run and how similar it is you can only guess they will have a huge advantage over AOC on subscribers in it's first month.
Edit: I was able to take that off the title for the thread, I never changed a title word before guess you can
lol 500k subscribers in the first month? name ONE game that managed that. 500k in 2 or 3 months thats believable but not in 1month
MMO wish list:
-Changeable worlds
-Solid non level based game
-Sharks with lasers attached to their heads
"Fact"? ...what ever
Yeah thats why it is a guess. AOC is by far one of the most global marketed advanced MMORPG to come out. Look at the European forums, there are some forums with over 2million people visiting them. I think AOC is got a leg up on over hype from day one and so has WAR, this is what I am basing my findings on and WOW did have a impressive 600k subscribers on it's first month if I do recall that press release.
I can confirm that the 'crap-o-meter' has offically blown a fuse when fed this threads contents...
I think AoC particularly, and possibly both games will actually see a drop from month 1 to month 2 and beyond. It just doesn't deliver what has been promised and is expected by a lot of people.
Mark my words War will be far better game. Oh wait thats my opinion and it doesn t play like WOW my god enough of the WAR=WOW crap hell AOC probably has more similarities with WOW then WAR does.
I'm pretty sure WAR will be good. AOC will be either really revolutionary or really bad. I'm looking forward to both really, and will give them both a try unless one gets terrible reviews.
Will
Playing: Xsyon.
Played:
Tried: Ultima Online, Everquest 2, Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures, Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning, Flyff, Perfect World, Silkroad Online, EVE Online, Ryzom.
sorry but even the giant that WoW turned out to be did not rake in over 500k subscribers in the 1st month. its unrealistic especially now with all the cautious MMO players around (ex SWG, ex Vanguard and so on).
WAR will have a larger following but AoC is definatly the more intellectual game. WAR is for those who want to get into PvP or have fun asap. long term appeal is very small atm unless u love PvP and live for constant fighting (which is what Warhammer is all about so good job Mythic). AoC on the other hand is a slower game to play but has a much better endgame prospect and long term appeal.
i will play both and i predict i will stay with AoC longer
MMO wish list:
-Changeable worlds
-Solid non level based game
-Sharks with lasers attached to their heads
Youre an idiot if you think AoC will have more subscribers than Warhammer. Warhammer is coming out after AoC, the people who dont like aoc will move to war.. common sense... im not playing either so its not bias
HOGG4LIFE
Maybe so but i don t think WAR will be a short term game i m sure it will have a very lasting appeal to alot other then just rvr this is my opinion of course.
In all honesty, speculating how many subscribers a game will get is pointless. Who gives a fig if it has 10 thousand or 10 million subscribers, at the end of the day the game is a success if you enjoy playing it. Plus the OPs post is full of 'hearsay' and your opinions are based on no factual evidence what-so-ever.
So what this thread boils down to is pointless humor, to amuse the flamebaiters and flamers alike, because your pitting two games against each other when this should not be the case. Im an avid Blizzard fan and have enjoyed and enjoy all their titles but at the end of the day I want a market that has variety which at the moment the MMO sector doesnt.
So I dont care which game gets 'more subscribers' aslong as they provide variety to a stale genre.
Subscriber levels are more popular now then they ever where. It gives the company and players an idea on how well that MMO is doing. Notice my thread isn't about telling you in factual terms how many subs each will have but rather a nice thread to get people to make a guess. This is all for fun, not a flame thread where everyone can bash each person saying my title is going to be better then yours.
Yes I'm sure WAR will get 1 million subscribers. I mean the only competition they have the next WoW expansion, Age of Conan and Aion. I mean come on, it's completely normal for a western mmorpg to reach the 1 million subscriber mark [/sarcasm]
I don't follow these two IP's, Warhammer & Conan, very well so feel free to refute whatever I say.
Your numbers depend on how many fans will make the transition of the IP's primary form to video game form. For Warhammer that's a board game and Conan a novel even though they both saw video game release form. (I'm not sure on the numbers of those games)
As has been repeated in the past WoW had a large following because millions were already playing the Warcraft series and since Blizzard made the next Warcraft in MMO form playing that was the next logical step for Warcraft enthusiasts. Going into Asia, who definitely likes the Starcraft series, helped too.
LOTRO which I would think would be a strong IP in and of itself is sporting around 200k something subscribers if you believe a poster on that board. I can because they usually argue a very well though out response. EDIT: Want to make sure that is only understood as a guess and not actual fact END EDIT
Since that game was an IP from a novel form, which also saw some game releases, it will be interesting to see what the transition numbers to these IP's to MMO form will be.
AC2 Player RIP Final Death Jan 31st 2017
Refugee of Auberean
Refugee of Dereth
I dont mind debating subscription numbers because that is harmless fun but to predict which game will be better would be stupid. It is going to vary from user to user, and that is one of the things that make mmo's beautiful. There are people who will swear UO is still the best MMO out there, and others who think WoW is. There is no best, there can be no best. For people who argue subscription numbers stating that mass subs = best, look at McDonalds. Over 99 billion served and I can think of a bunch of places I would rather eat instead of that. To me it isn't the best.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Now, if we are just arguing subscription numbers I would give WAR the nod. Sub number polls like this one are fun, although I don't think either game will have 500k after just 1 month, but the X game is better stuff is nonsense.
Where is the 10k or less option?
I'm thinking double 500,000's for each. Give or take a few hundred. As a WoW clone, I think WAR has the advantage, but Conan will have a good draw for the mature aspect (olololo! teh bewbz) and the combat features.
Both games combined wont break 300,000 subsrcibers.
FUncom putting the FU in fun since 1993.
Since it's harmess fun, please allow me to share my predictions!
If release stays in Q2 of 2008, AoC will sell 40,000 to 60,000 copies within the first month of release - first player peak will be at 75,000 after three months.
If release is in Q3 of 2008, WAR will sell 130,000 to 170,000 copies within the first month of release - first player peak will be at 225,000 after three months.
What happens after three months will depend on how good the games really are!
WaR will outsell AoC, initially anyway.
Neither will sell that many copies within the first month. Neither will outgrow WoW, within a short time frame anyway (maybe within 2-3 years if WaR has enough content). AoC will not outgrow WoW mainly because it has lesser content, and many features won't be available at launch.