Originally posted by TookyG Originally posted by Housam
Originally posted by TookyG
Originally posted by Housam
there are allot of new mmo coming out in the next few moths. which one do you think will make it big and which ones wont...and why JUST MY OPINIONS Age of Conan - Will draw at max, a respectable 200k Aion Closed within a year The Chronicles of Spellborn Closed within a year or purchased by SOE Fallen Earth Closed within a year Jumpgate Evolution If Jumpgate is still going somehow, this will last a while but won't get alot of players Requiem: Bloodymare Closed within a year Star Trek Online Will eventually be launched by some company but hopefully won't resemble the crap Perpetual was doing WAR (Warhammer Online) - Will draw at max, 300k in the US
lol your pretty harsh hehe
Probably a mix of being realistic and being jaded.
i think Aion and TCOS will defiantly not do as badly as he predicted...:)
I've been hearing that LOTRO has surpassed 500K and is near 1 million players. If that's true and if Mythic actually delivers on all the hype, I really wouldn't be surprised if WAR hit 1-2 million players.
AOC may hit pretty high numbers too, although the crazy high system reqs are going to be an issue IMHO.
Originally posted by BattleFelon I've been hearing that LOTRO has surpassed 500K and is near 1 million players. If that's true and if Mythic actually delivers on all the hype, I really wouldn't be surprised if WAR hit 1-2 million players. AOC may hit pretty high numbers too, although the crazy high system reqs are going to be an issue IMHO.
Doubt that any of them will bring in millions of western subscribers.
Age of Conan will probably bring in a 250-300k in the first couple months then settle down around 150k after 6 months or so after release. Probably decreasing numbers after that until the first expansion comes out. Chronicles of Spellborn I imagine will hit 150k subscribers give or take 20k. After the first month I suspect this number will decrease significantly Fallen Earth I do not believe will ever hit mainstream success and will probably go the way of Auto Assault. Jumpgate Evolution will be interesting to watch. Being that it's resuscitation is by NetDevil the people that brought us Auto Assault. I would wager 50-75k people to start with if they are lucky. Star Trek Online... well this one is definitely not "coming soon". Hype had built up quick and interest died off just as fast with the more information that Perpetual had released. Now that it is shuffled off onto a new dev house we have seen nothing. We know that they are starting over from square one and that's about it. If they handle it right could see 350k-500k subscribers but more than likely will peak at around 75k maybe 100k. Warhammer Online... over 650k beta applications to date. I would wager 325k max subscribers at launch. This of course depends on how the rest of hte beta is handled and how much work Mythic really puts into the game. I honestly believe that THQ will do better with their WH40k game. Aion will most likely bring in numbers close to that of lineage 2. In the west those numbers are pretty small but it is an eastern game and it appears that the people in Asia are voracious when it comes to their mmo games. Most likely millions of folks over there will play it lol.
These seem pretty realistic. You have to think that WAR will pull in the biggest numbers, although not as big as some expect. From what Ive seen/heard, AoC could have the classic, rushed launch that brings the hype machine to a screeching halt. And, many of the smaller titles are extremely low key right now, so who knows how that will turn out.
The two big wild card scenarios that could surprise everyone are:
1) If one of the big titles is a complete flop
2) One of the smaller titles starts off quiet (yet solid) and slowly builds steam
Ah I hate to rain on the War people, but come on now, Mythic is making War and Mark Jacobs is still in charge. He was the big reason DAoC fell from everyone's graces and why alot of the original DAoC devs left.
People don't change. So I look to see a lot of discontented people once War hits the ether.
Age of Conan - Will be the best MMO of 2008. Why ? It won't be a WOW clone and people want something different these days not to mention it will be a fun game to play long term.
Aion - It will have more success overseas than the US but it will be overlooked because more people will be interested in AOC and WAR.
WAR (Warhammer Online) - The biggest flop of 2008. It's WOW1.5 PvP version and no innovation whatsoever. If you're playing or have played DAOC and WOW I see no reason why people would switch over to subscribe long term to the game.
Ah I hate to rain on the War people, but come on now, Mythic is making War and Mark Jacobs is still in charge. He was the big reason DAoC fell from everyone's graces and why alot of the original DAoC devs left. People don't change. So I look to see a lot of discontented people once War hits the ether.
When there's money involved, hundreds of thousands, millions, most people can change pretty damn fast.
AoC - 200k CONSISTENT subs, I cannot and will not predict how many it will have at release because it's so hyped up.
WAR - Similar to AoC, though with around 500k consistent subs, approx. If it has a good release.
Aion - Glanced at this but haven't been following it, it's the only other one I might be interested in if it works out, but no predictions.
-------------------------------------- A human and an Elf get captured by Skaven. The rat-men are getting ready to shoot the first hostage with Dwarf-made guns when he yells, "Earthquake!" The naturally nervous Skaven run and hide from the imaginary threat. He escapes. The Skaven regroup and bring out the Elf. Being very smart, the Elf has figured out what to do. When the Skaven get ready to shoot, the Elf, in order to scare them, yells, "Fire!"
AoC - Unsure, has potential, but I need to actually play it to get a general feel for if it will be interesting to players, especially the growing population of experienced MMO players.
TCOS - From the beta video released, I believe this has the strong potential to being a sleeper hit. It has a decent AI, it is not gear centric, and the combat is much like AoC with a focus on some sort of intuitive design.
Aion - Another sleeper hit I suspect, which I hope as well since NCSoft has gotten a blackeye from Tabula Rasa.
Fallen Earth - Again, sleeper hit, lots of potential, but it's more tech demo than an actual AAA title.
Jumpgate Evolution - I suspect it will be profitable for NetDevil and promote the team from crap to 'okay' in many people's eyes, especially VCs.
Requiem - from what has been rumor'd, not much different than the rest of the F2P grinders (or P2P grinders for that matter).
STO - It's dead, Jim.
WAR - Unsure, heard rumors that the developers have been trying to balance each class against its counterpart in the opposing side of the conflict, which I believe is against the spirit of the Warhammer (and WH40k) franchise(s) since they're mostly about asymmetrical armies. Chaos should *not* mirror Order and vice versa. And it could be a problem for the title if it does.
AoC and WAR will not only survive, they will thrive. I give Aion a puncher's chance but nothing more. The rest will be relegated to making a living at best.
Nothing will single handedly kill WoW, it will be a succession of blows over time. 2008 will be the start of the assault and I would bet big that by the end of 2009 WoW's population won't be growing anymore and will probably take a hit.
No great cataclysmic event where WoW drops to #2 game, but rumours abounding that better games exist and even WoW faithful will hear them and watch as friends leave for AoC and WAR.
I still don't see why people are considering Aion and Requiem small titles. NCSoft and Gravity are 2 of the most profitable mmo companies of all time. Greater then Mythic, Funcom, and Turbine. They have funds that they just haven't been using. NCSoft in the Billions.
One more interesting thing about Requiem is that the publisher is doing something they really haven't before. They opened a US development studio, and have been making wild promises. Not only on Requiem, but its other titles Ragnarok Online 1 and 2. If they actually pull off what they promise on. Requiem could possibly be the sleeper hit of 2008.
I've been hearing that LOTRO has surpassed 500K and is near 1 million players. If that's true and if Mythic actually delivers on all the hype, I really wouldn't be surprised if WAR hit 1-2 million players.
AOC may hit pretty high numbers too, although the crazy high system reqs are going to be an issue IMHO.
hmm i think lotro only has between 300k-500k subs
If you believe sir bruce's charts LOTRO has less than 200k.
I personally just don't see WAR, or AoC, or any other (western style) game in development breaking 350k subs. Having said that, I think WAR has the best shot at it but I could be wrong. We'll see.
Until you cancel your subscription, you are only helping to continue the cycle of mediocrity.
there are allot of new mmo coming out in the next few moths. which one do you think will make it big and which ones wont...and why Age of Conan
Aion
The Chronicles of Spellborn
Fallen Earth
Jumpgate Evolution
Requiem: Bloodymare
Star Trek Online
WAR (Warhammer Online)
Way back when there was lots of EQ2 vs. WoW debates. I don't think anyone predicted that WoW was going to decimate. So it's hard to tell.
I will try AoC, WAR and tCoSB. From what I've seen WAR will be my main game because I can pvp when ever I want and there are lots of class options.
A big factor for me is number of skill choices. This is what kills WoW for me, most builds are the same. I want an RPG where I can work out builds all day long.
i think AION will be huge, it has the graphics to attract the ppl to give it at least a chance. i wasnt really into the gamefeatures but after the first video i thought damn i wanna play that. and its the main NC title for the next years, i doubt they will let it fail.
Age of Conan - Will match WAR numbers maybe beat depending on performance in mass PVP
WAR (Warhammer Online) - They'll lose some to AoC but they have a following that should put them 2nd in the ratings
I somehow doubt that. System reqs of AoC are pretty high, and I think you might overestimate the kind of PC system the majority of gamers have. Purely based on the requirements, AoC will have a much smaller potential market to work with, at least in the first year(s).
------------------------------------------------
Playing: Final Fantasy Online: ARR, Destiny Most memorable games for me: UO, GW1, LoTRO
there are allot of new mmo coming out in the next few moths. which one do you think will make it big and which ones wont...and why Age of Conan
Aion
The Chronicles of Spellborn
Fallen Earth
Jumpgate Evolution
Requiem: Bloodymare
Star Trek Online
WAR (Warhammer Online)
age of conan - will most likely come out in a state that screams it should have been worked on for another 6 months. i see a good number of people trying it out before the fail sets in with aoc.
aion - most likely like aoc will get a good number of people before dropping off.
spellborn - doesn't have anyone in the us to push it yet. not a good sign.
fallen earth - from what i have heard it uses a system much like swg pre-cu and will play like swg pre-cu if it does then it will be a big hit. i know 250k people from swg and more who will sign up.
jumpgate - will lose to eve.
requiem - i don't think we will see this.
sto - i really don't think we will see this.
war - being ea is runing it chances at it will fail out of the door.
still i think the game that will take over this year is eve. it is a game everyone loves and wants.
Age of Conan - Will match WAR numbers maybe beat depending on performance in mass PVP
WAR (Warhammer Online) - They'll lose some to AoC but they have a following that should put them 2nd in the ratings
I somehow doubt that. System reqs of AoC are pretty high, and I think you might overestimate the kind of PC system the majority of gamers have. Purely based on the requirements, AoC will have a much smaller potential market to work with, at least in the first year(s).
Never ceases to amaze me how many people call themselves gamers but don't make the effort to get a decent PC.
Age of Conan - will not meet the hype, but won't necessarily flop
Aion - will continue to receive ignorant responses that drags down conversation, but will do "OK"
The Chronicles of Spellborn - Will have a comparatively small following, but still be "successful"
Fallen Earth - Looks hella cool, but it's still too early to say
Jumpgate Evolution - meh, it'll continue to be niche
Requiem: Bloodymare - It'll go F2P if it isn't already and will be largely forgotten
Star Trek Online - DOA
WAR (Warhammer Online) - Probably has the most hope of being successful, though I personally don't expect it to meet expectations.
The longer ramble:
I've been following Aion for awhile and it's the title that I'm most looking forward to, but I've attempted to not let my bias get in the way of my assessment of the game's performance. I think that it could do quite well, but realistically there are too many people who are far too uninformed yet trash talk it as though they are. So it's going to have a rough time getting over this stereotyping and the related misinformation, which will affect its adoption.
AoC I've never expected to do well. I have nothing against it, I just don't expect it to have many PC players three or four months after its launch. However, I would not be surprised if the XBox 360 becomes its primary audience, but I couldn't care less.
Chronicles, I haven't read much about this one, but it has a decent feel to it from what I have seen. It doesn't seem talked about nearly as often as the others, so I don't expect it to initially ship many boxes. It seems to have promise though. It could make up for the slow start and be successful despite a comparatively smaller number of subscriptions.
Fallen Earth - see above.
Requiem: Please. This is destined straight for the bargain bin. Gameplay footage is enough to tell me what I need to know about this title.
Star Trek... a dead horse. Isn't going to happen. If it does actually manage to launch... ah hell, this is a dead horse. There's not need to go there.
Age of Conan : If the launch goes smoothly and they give all that promised, It will do fine.
Aion: Maybe
The Chronicles of Spellborn : This game is either going to be a sleeper hit , of fail miserably.
Fallen Earth: Not to sure about this one. will have to see more.
Jumpgate Evolution: going to be hard to steal EVE's thunder here.
Requiem: Bloodymare: I don't think it will make it.
Star Trek Online: I REALLY would like to see this one make it and be great, but Its in complete limo atm.
WAR (Warhammer Online): Has the best potential to really pull people from WoW and EQ2 as well. The game style and content seems like it would appeal to both.
I doubt any of these games are gonna be a "WoW killer" by themselves, but together they will collectively take alot of subs from WoW (especially WAR and AoC).
Never ceases to amaze me how many people call themselves gamers but don't make the effort to get a decent PC.
Maybe so but the developers that capitalise on those cheat gamers win.
AoC - too many things going against it to be a big hit. Will probably have a bunch of sales at launch because of people not knowing about the system requirements. The Mature rating will also hinder it as the 16 year olds which comprise a good portion of the MMO demographic will be unable to purchase it themselves.
WAR - by far the biggest title since WoW, however still dont expect it to retain more than 500,000.
Aion - the PvP based Korean grinder MMO genre has done very poorly outside of Asia so far especially when combined with a monthly fee. The biggest success has been Lineage 2 and that is hanging around 100,000 subscribers between the US and Europe. The best Aion can hope for is to not be forced go free to play/Item Mall like Archlord, RF Online and SotNW.
STO - the only question here is: will it be cancelled before or during Closed Beta.
Age of Conan: Will have a few very dedicated fans. The rest of us will go 'meh.' Expect a subscription arc similar to Vanguard's.
Aion: Will be big enough in Asia to carry it long enough that western gamers might catch on to the hype. Whether it becomes popular in the west will depend on the amount and variety of the content, and I'm honestly not sure NCSoft is up to that challenge.
Chronicles of Spellborn: Again, depends on their ability to deliver content. If it turns out that PvP is the best part of the game, it will NOT be able to compete with Guild Wars or WAR. If the PvE content is good, I expect a severe redesign of some of the game systems within the first year. It may do as well as EQ2 at that point. If the content is boring and/or poorly executed, the game will go down in flames.
Jumpgate Evolution: As others have said, this is not going to beat EVE.
Requiem: Is this a joke?
Star Trek Online: Not going to happen.
Warhammer Online: Might pull a few Horde players from WoW. And I do mean few. EA/Mythic will be glad for the business, but Blizzard will barely notice. If the PvP is good, maybe it will shut up some of the PvP whiners on these boards. Initially this will do best out of the games on this list. Over time, Aion and Spellborn might pull ahead.
Uhh Aion is a PvE game. The only upcoming PvE games are coming out of Asia.
Aion is RvR with endgame based mostly on a ffa PvPvE area where you have to kill , open world and raids on them for competition, raid bosses that will act as NPCs for the opposite faction, so you have to defend them from your enemies, sieges, artifacts that cause devastating attacks against your enemy race, siege weapons, hero system based on pvp points, gear and upgrades based on that pvp system and rifts which spawn randomly for short periods of time connecting both main lands, in order to get some casual pvp or daily havoc if the races are organized enough to go in masses once those rifts open.
It's true it will have raids, an AI controled faction which will fight against both races, and many pve features, but saying Aion is a PvE game isn't accurate at all.
Comments
lol your pretty harsh hehe
Probably a mix of being realistic and being jaded.
i think Aion and TCOS will defiantly not do as badly as he predicted...:)
I've been hearing that LOTRO has surpassed 500K and is near 1 million players. If that's true and if Mythic actually delivers on all the hype, I really wouldn't be surprised if WAR hit 1-2 million players.
AOC may hit pretty high numbers too, although the crazy high system reqs are going to be an issue IMHO.
D&D Home Page - What Class Are You? - Build A Character - D&D Compendium
These seem pretty realistic. You have to think that WAR will pull in the biggest numbers, although not as big as some expect. From what Ive seen/heard, AoC could have the classic, rushed launch that brings the hype machine to a screeching halt. And, many of the smaller titles are extremely low key right now, so who knows how that will turn out.
The two big wild card scenarios that could surprise everyone are:
1) If one of the big titles is a complete flop
2) One of the smaller titles starts off quiet (yet solid) and slowly builds steam
Ah I hate to rain on the War people, but come on now, Mythic is making War and Mark Jacobs is still in charge. He was the big reason DAoC fell from everyone's graces and why alot of the original DAoC devs left.
People don't change. So I look to see a lot of discontented people once War hits the ether.
Age of Conan - Will be the best MMO of 2008. Why ? It won't be a WOW clone and people want something different these days not to mention it will be a fun game to play long term.
Aion - It will have more success overseas than the US but it will be overlooked because more people will be interested in AOC and WAR.
WAR (Warhammer Online) - The biggest flop of 2008. It's WOW1.5 PvP version and no innovation whatsoever. If you're playing or have played DAOC and WOW I see no reason why people would switch over to subscribe long term to the game.
Champions Online will be the most profitable MMO title in the near future. (Investments vs profits)
WAR, AoC and Aion will be profitable, but I doubt they would be up to what they should have been.
Stargate World is promising, could be a sleeper hit.
- "If I understand you well, you are telling me until next time. " - Ren
When there's money involved, hundreds of thousands, millions, most people can change pretty damn fast.
AoC - 200k CONSISTENT subs, I cannot and will not predict how many it will have at release because it's so hyped up.
WAR - Similar to AoC, though with around 500k consistent subs, approx. If it has a good release.
Aion - Glanced at this but haven't been following it, it's the only other one I might be interested in if it works out, but no predictions.
--------------------------------------
A human and an Elf get captured by Skaven. The rat-men are getting ready to shoot the first hostage with Dwarf-made guns when he yells, "Earthquake!" The naturally nervous Skaven run and hide from the imaginary threat. He escapes. The Skaven regroup and bring out the Elf. Being very smart, the Elf has figured out what to do. When the Skaven get ready to shoot, the Elf, in order to scare them, yells, "Fire!"
Order of the White Border.
heh, weren't all these meant to be out in 2007?
AoC - Unsure, has potential, but I need to actually play it to get a general feel for if it will be interesting to players, especially the growing population of experienced MMO players.
TCOS - From the beta video released, I believe this has the strong potential to being a sleeper hit. It has a decent AI, it is not gear centric, and the combat is much like AoC with a focus on some sort of intuitive design.
Aion - Another sleeper hit I suspect, which I hope as well since NCSoft has gotten a blackeye from Tabula Rasa.
Fallen Earth - Again, sleeper hit, lots of potential, but it's more tech demo than an actual AAA title.
Jumpgate Evolution - I suspect it will be profitable for NetDevil and promote the team from crap to 'okay' in many people's eyes, especially VCs.
Requiem - from what has been rumor'd, not much different than the rest of the F2P grinders (or P2P grinders for that matter).
STO - It's dead, Jim.
WAR - Unsure, heard rumors that the developers have been trying to balance each class against its counterpart in the opposing side of the conflict, which I believe is against the spirit of the Warhammer (and WH40k) franchise(s) since they're mostly about asymmetrical armies. Chaos should *not* mirror Order and vice versa. And it could be a problem for the title if it does.
-- Brede
AoC and WAR will not only survive, they will thrive. I give Aion a puncher's chance but nothing more. The rest will be relegated to making a living at best.
Nothing will single handedly kill WoW, it will be a succession of blows over time. 2008 will be the start of the assault and I would bet big that by the end of 2009 WoW's population won't be growing anymore and will probably take a hit.
No great cataclysmic event where WoW drops to #2 game, but rumours abounding that better games exist and even WoW faithful will hear them and watch as friends leave for AoC and WAR.
I still don't see why people are considering Aion and Requiem small titles. NCSoft and Gravity are 2 of the most profitable mmo companies of all time. Greater then Mythic, Funcom, and Turbine. They have funds that they just haven't been using. NCSoft in the Billions.
One more interesting thing about Requiem is that the publisher is doing something they really haven't before. They opened a US development studio, and have been making wild promises. Not only on Requiem, but its other titles Ragnarok Online 1 and 2. If they actually pull off what they promise on. Requiem could possibly be the sleeper hit of 2008.
If you believe sir bruce's charts LOTRO has less than 200k.
I personally just don't see WAR, or AoC, or any other (western style) game in development breaking 350k subs. Having said that, I think WAR has the best shot at it but I could be wrong. We'll see.
Until you cancel your subscription, you are only helping to continue the cycle of mediocrity.
Way back when there was lots of EQ2 vs. WoW debates. I don't think anyone predicted that WoW was going to decimate. So it's hard to tell.
I will try AoC, WAR and tCoSB. From what I've seen WAR will be my main game because I can pvp when ever I want and there are lots of class options.
A big factor for me is number of skill choices. This is what kills WoW for me, most builds are the same. I want an RPG where I can work out builds all day long.
and its the main NC title for the next years, i doubt they will let it fail.
I somehow doubt that. System reqs of AoC are pretty high, and I think you might overestimate the kind of PC system the majority of gamers have. Purely based on the requirements, AoC will have a much smaller potential market to work with, at least in the first year(s).
------------------------------------------------
Playing: Final Fantasy Online: ARR, Destiny
Most memorable games for me: UO, GW1, LoTRO
aion - most likely like aoc will get a good number of people before dropping off.
spellborn - doesn't have anyone in the us to push it yet. not a good sign.
fallen earth - from what i have heard it uses a system much like swg pre-cu and will play like swg pre-cu if it does then it will be a big hit. i know 250k people from swg and more who will sign up.
jumpgate - will lose to eve.
requiem - i don't think we will see this.
sto - i really don't think we will see this.
war - being ea is runing it chances at it will fail out of the door.
still i think the game that will take over this year is eve. it is a game everyone loves and wants.
I think the biggest hit of the year will be Warhammer. I think it'll be the first sub based MMO that will hit 1 Million subscribers since WoW.
And I think it'll hit 3-4 million if it ever launches in Asia.
And no- I am not gonna play it because I am not a PvP fan. I just got a gut feeling it's gonna be a huge success.
I somehow doubt that. System reqs of AoC are pretty high, and I think you might overestimate the kind of PC system the majority of gamers have. Purely based on the requirements, AoC will have a much smaller potential market to work with, at least in the first year(s).
Never ceases to amaze me how many people call themselves gamers but don't make the effort to get a decent PC.
For the tl;dr types (such as myself):
Age of Conan - will not meet the hype, but won't necessarily flop
Aion - will continue to receive ignorant responses that drags down conversation, but will do "OK"
The Chronicles of Spellborn - Will have a comparatively small following, but still be "successful"
Fallen Earth - Looks hella cool, but it's still too early to say
Jumpgate Evolution - meh, it'll continue to be niche
Requiem: Bloodymare - It'll go F2P if it isn't already and will be largely forgotten
Star Trek Online - DOA
WAR (Warhammer Online) - Probably has the most hope of being successful, though I personally don't expect it to meet expectations.
The longer ramble:
I've been following Aion for awhile and it's the title that I'm most looking forward to, but I've attempted to not let my bias get in the way of my assessment of the game's performance. I think that it could do quite well, but realistically there are too many people who are far too uninformed yet trash talk it as though they are. So it's going to have a rough time getting over this stereotyping and the related misinformation, which will affect its adoption.
AoC I've never expected to do well. I have nothing against it, I just don't expect it to have many PC players three or four months after its launch. However, I would not be surprised if the XBox 360 becomes its primary audience, but I couldn't care less.
Chronicles, I haven't read much about this one, but it has a decent feel to it from what I have seen. It doesn't seem talked about nearly as often as the others, so I don't expect it to initially ship many boxes. It seems to have promise though. It could make up for the slow start and be successful despite a comparatively smaller number of subscriptions.
Fallen Earth - see above.
Requiem: Please. This is destined straight for the bargain bin. Gameplay footage is enough to tell me what I need to know about this title.
Star Trek... a dead horse. Isn't going to happen. If it does actually manage to launch... ah hell, this is a dead horse. There's not need to go there.
G'day folks.
Age of Conan : If the launch goes smoothly and they give all that promised, It will do fine.
Aion: Maybe
The Chronicles of Spellborn : This game is either going to be a sleeper hit , of fail miserably.
Fallen Earth: Not to sure about this one. will have to see more.
Jumpgate Evolution: going to be hard to steal EVE's thunder here.
Requiem: Bloodymare: I don't think it will make it.
Star Trek Online: I REALLY would like to see this one make it and be great, but Its in complete limo atm.
WAR (Warhammer Online): Has the best potential to really pull people from WoW and EQ2 as well. The game style and content seems like it would appeal to both.
I doubt any of these games are gonna be a "WoW killer" by themselves, but together they will collectively take alot of subs from WoW (especially WAR and AoC).
AoC - too many things going against it to be a big hit. Will probably have a bunch of sales at launch because of people not knowing about the system requirements. The Mature rating will also hinder it as the 16 year olds which comprise a good portion of the MMO demographic will be unable to purchase it themselves.
WAR - by far the biggest title since WoW, however still dont expect it to retain more than 500,000.
Aion - the PvP based Korean grinder MMO genre has done very poorly outside of Asia so far especially when combined with a monthly fee. The biggest success has been Lineage 2 and that is hanging around 100,000 subscribers between the US and Europe. The best Aion can hope for is to not be forced go free to play/Item Mall like Archlord, RF Online and SotNW.
STO - the only question here is: will it be cancelled before or during Closed Beta.
Age of Conan: Will have a few very dedicated fans. The rest of us will go 'meh.' Expect a subscription arc similar to Vanguard's.
Aion: Will be big enough in Asia to carry it long enough that western gamers might catch on to the hype. Whether it becomes popular in the west will depend on the amount and variety of the content, and I'm honestly not sure NCSoft is up to that challenge.
Chronicles of Spellborn: Again, depends on their ability to deliver content. If it turns out that PvP is the best part of the game, it will NOT be able to compete with Guild Wars or WAR. If the PvE content is good, I expect a severe redesign of some of the game systems within the first year. It may do as well as EQ2 at that point. If the content is boring and/or poorly executed, the game will go down in flames.
Fallen Earth: Interesting ideas, but severely underfunded. Quite doomed, I'm afraid.
Jumpgate Evolution: As others have said, this is not going to beat EVE.
Requiem: Is this a joke?
Star Trek Online: Not going to happen.
Warhammer Online: Might pull a few Horde players from WoW. And I do mean few. EA/Mythic will be glad for the business, but Blizzard will barely notice. If the PvP is good, maybe it will shut up some of the PvP whiners on these boards. Initially this will do best out of the games on this list. Over time, Aion and Spellborn might pull ahead.
Uhh Aion is a PvE game. The only upcoming PvE games are coming out of Asia.
Aion is RvR with endgame based mostly on a ffa PvPvE area where you have to kill , open world and raids on them for competition, raid bosses that will act as NPCs for the opposite faction, so you have to defend them from your enemies, sieges, artifacts that cause devastating attacks against your enemy race, siege weapons, hero system based on pvp points, gear and upgrades based on that pvp system and rifts which spawn randomly for short periods of time connecting both main lands, in order to get some casual pvp or daily havoc if the races are organized enough to go in masses once those rifts open.It's true it will have raids, an AI controled faction which will fight against both races, and many pve features, but saying Aion is a PvE game isn't accurate at all.
But yeah, xiaoki's reply was quite uneducated.