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More than 1 million people signed up for the Age of Conan beta
Czzarre
Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 3,742
Source: http://forums.ageofconan.com/showthread.php?t=91025
I wager this has been discussed before. I have no reason to disputte this number, but I wonder why so much emphasis is placed on the number of beta applicants. I wager a large majority of that pool also applied for WAR and heck any other beta that was out.
Still, It just goes to show that AoC has a healthy following. I expect easily 250K subs within the first 3 months and a million by years end
Comments
That would be great, I personally think this is true as well its a good game.
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-Currently playing FFXIV, and BDO.
I hope you are right, but I seriously doubt there are even 1 million gamers with rigs that can handle AoC. We are talking about a rather small market segment for adults, here are exapmles: high end PC's, people who like gore & nudity, people who like Conan and people who are willing to leave WoW. After you filter all of these down, I think you are left with about 250k potential subs.
WoW is only succesful since eMachines and low end PC's can run it. MapleStory and other browser games are only succesful because crappy computers can run them as well. AoC can't compete with either of these two, they are dealing with separate segments.
And I read a post where a guy signed up for a beta, then signed his grandmother up, his wife, even his dog.. So beta sign ups prove nothing really.
You really are pretty gullible to believe that number. One thing you learn on the net, question everything. There is more nonsense published on the web than any other medium, by a huge margin.
If they actually had that many, then about 750,000 found out they don't have the computer to run the game, but then I extremely doubt they had even half that many if that. Whatever the number this game is going to have a huge drop off after 30 days, the client needs ALOT of work.
Consider this...
Age of conan ranks 5th in amazon.com VIDEO GAMES sales rank, givin this was the un-favorable pre-order says alot... 5th....and thats just the regular edition.
http://www.amazon.com/Age-of-Conan-Hyborian-Adventures/dp/B000RZPW9W/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=videogames&qid=1210721165&sr=8-1
Gamestop now shows that AoC is ranked as the number 1 best seller.... above GTA IV... thats for the online store... http://www.gamestop.com just scroll to the bottom you'll see it.
So if you consider more traditional store like Best buy and Circut city... they must be seeing simular numbers if not better.
A Part of me worries that the first few days may be bumpy... but then again... if the servers stay stable and the game can handle that amount...
I can say we could see about 1 million subs at start. Not sure by 3 months, all depends on how stable the game is... but if they produce a solid effort i could see that number sticking for a while, at least till warhammer, face it some are going to go no matter what.
the game can handle 650k people at best, even the devs announced this. No game will ever start with 1 mil people (WAR, maybe, considering it's aim). The game will have 500k at the top how I see it, at the very best, which for any game is considered amazing. The numbers will dip quickly to about 150k - 250k (I do suspect no less than 200k, but we will see how many of the customers are those unknowing of system specs...). From here I can see them slowly growing, seeing how intelligently FC has been marketting their game so far. They've grown dramatically since the launch of AO and have become a respected and knowledgeable company. They have potential to make this game a hit (not a "WoW" hit, but eventually the possibility of 1 mil). No way will this happen any time soon, though.
Has a lot of people signed up several times? Yes of course. Hell I did it myself. Do people sign up for everything and every crappy gamebeta they hear about? No they don't. People doesn't show an interest in something they believe to be junk. It's not like people like to bore themselves unnecessarily. Besides the rules that applies to AoC also applied to WoW, LoTRO, WAR and so on. That means you better believe that people has signed up several times for those games betas as well, and AoC still had more applicants.
So we can all assume the numbers are flawed, but even so it shows an unprecedented number and interest in the game. This is a fact it's hard to evade even for the most rabid AoC-hater.
As I said in my original post, yea I dont give that much credit to a beta app number. However I will put money down that they will have 250K subs by 3 months from release.
I well know the issues of the AOC game requirements. I wrote about it prominantly in my review. Read it HERE. however, gamers will adapt. I expect the desire to move on from WoW is great enough, players will inddeed invest in their computers for upgrading RAM or graphics card. Not everyone, but I expect those who can, likely will.
Torrential: DAOC (Pendragon)
Awned: World of Warcraft (Lothar)
Torren: Warhammer Online (Praag)
i guarantee you once open beta for WAR opens up...it going to put AoCs beta numbers to shame. Don't forget that funcom posted this yesterday..so it is taking into fact people who have attempted to get the OB
I can speculate that WAR will crash and burn, that it's graphics will be too 2001 in 2010 when it releases and that the publisher will rename it to World of WAR to reflect it's inspiration. I can speculate that the devs will rewrite 75% of the game to accomodate most of the beta testers wishes, and the fact that a leading gamemag said the first 10minutes they played was abysmal. All you do is speculate. You can't guarantee anything. If you can speculate then so can I.
I can speculate that WAR will crash and burn, that it's graphics will be too 2001 in 2010 when it releases and that the publisher will rename it to World of WAR to reflect it's inspiration. I can speculate that the devs will rewrite 75% of the game to accomodate most of the beta testers wishes, and the fact that a leading gamemag said the first 10minutes they played was abysmal. All you do is speculate. You can't guarantee anything. If you can speculate then so can I.
It will gain much more popularity than AoC simply for the reasons that you say it will fail. WAR is appealing to the WoW crowd, if anyone. Whether that is a step forward, in my opinion, isn't, but is the best marketting ploy.
I can guarantee you as well, along with any intelligent MMO veteran who knows how these things work, WAR will surpass AoC in subscriptions. Not because it is better, per say, but pertains to a larger and more accessible crowd. Keep in mind that just because it will win with subscriptions doesn't mean it will be a horrible game. This rivalry is similar in comparison with EQ and WoW, as in EQ being the option for those that want the "better" game, and WoW being the option for people who want a "playable" and social game. Look which one won. The only difference between that rivalry and this is that it has a potential eventually to reach an equal amount with WAR, over time. EQ failed to do this simply by the company it was run under.
I can speculate that WAR will crash and burn, that it's graphics will be too 2001 in 2010 when it releases and that the publisher will rename it to World of WAR to reflect it's inspiration. I can speculate that the devs will rewrite 75% of the game to accomodate most of the beta testers wishes, and the fact that a leading gamemag said the first 10minutes they played was abysmal. All you do is speculate. You can't guarantee anything. If you can speculate then so can I.
With all this speculating did you forget that beta apps really mean crap? Lets say I'm a typical guy who has a sub-standard rig that can't really run AoC. I go to the site because a friend suggested it. "Hey, Conan r cool!" So I sign up for the beta. Great! That means I'm part of that 1 million. Does it mean anything? I showed a slight interest in the game, so what? If they said they had 1 million beta testers, then wow, I'd be extremely impressed. As of now WAR has...692k I believe for the CLOSED beta. I don't know about putting AoC's numbers to shame, but I think it will match it or exceed when Open Beta comes. And yet, when beta app. numbers mean almost nothing, this thread only matters to those who think they DO mean something.
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A human and an Elf get captured by Skaven. The rat-men are getting ready to shoot the first hostage with Dwarf-made guns when he yells, "Earthquake!" The naturally nervous Skaven run and hide from the imaginary threat. He escapes. The Skaven regroup and bring out the Elf. Being very smart, the Elf has figured out what to do. When the Skaven get ready to shoot, the Elf, in order to scare them, yells, "Fire!"
Order of the White Border.
I can speculate that WAR will crash and burn, that it's graphics will be too 2001 in 2010 when it releases and that the publisher will rename it to World of WAR to reflect it's inspiration. I can speculate that the devs will rewrite 75% of the game to accomodate most of the beta testers wishes, and the fact that a leading gamemag said the first 10minutes they played was abysmal. All you do is speculate. You can't guarantee anything. If you can speculate then so can I.
It will gain much more popularity than AoC simply for the reasons that you say it will fail. WAR is appealing to the WoW crowd, if anyone. Whether that is a step forward, in my opinion, isn't, but is the best marketting ploy.
I can guarantee you as well, along with any intelligent MMO veteran who knows how these things work, WAR will surpass AoC in subscriptions. Not because it is better, per say, but pertains to a larger and more accessible crowd. Keep in mind that just because it will win with subscriptions doesn't mean it will be a horrible game. This rivalry is similar in comparison with EQ and WoW, as in EQ being the option for those that want the "better" game, and WoW being the option for people who want a "playable" and social game. Look which one won. The only difference between that rivalry and this is that it has a potential eventually to reach an equal amount with WAR, over time. EQ failed to do this simply by the company it was run under.
People see beautiful graphics and a new combat system and they think AoC's pushing the genre forward. In the long term, maybe. But then they forget that WAR and WoW are both higher fantasy games (which means they have elves, orcs, dwarves, whatnot) and I bet you at least 50% of people are just tired of that setting. Whether they enjoy gameplay or not, they'll probably try it just to experience something a little bit different. Saying WAR looks similar to WoW is okay; saying it's a WoW clone is not.
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A human and an Elf get captured by Skaven. The rat-men are getting ready to shoot the first hostage with Dwarf-made guns when he yells, "Earthquake!" The naturally nervous Skaven run and hide from the imaginary threat. He escapes. The Skaven regroup and bring out the Elf. Being very smart, the Elf has figured out what to do. When the Skaven get ready to shoot, the Elf, in order to scare them, yells, "Fire!"
Order of the White Border.
If they really had a million beta applications, that just means they ticked off over 900,000 applicants by passing them over for a Fileplanet Subscriber Only Open Beta!
They are already on the wrong foot with at least 90% of their potential audience. Subtract from the remaining those who's systems can't run the game and those who played Open Beta, but abandoned the game in frustration; You aren't left with much!
A little tongue-in-cheek, my apologies.
A million Beta applicants just proves there was substantial interest in the project. If AoC fails to be a success, Funcom will have a lot of explaining to do to their shareholders.
Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
isn't it like 70% of all statistics are made up?
Plenty of people can run the game on low settings just fine.
400k Subs launch -> first three months
Depending on how well the game turns out past the first three months it could go up or down, then beyond that they will have stiff competition in War and WOTLK, so I'm predicting it will hold steady around 300k subs by 2009.
Lol...i was going to make a title like this for the pre order >.<
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