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Age of Conan Subscriber Numbers
neya
Member Posts: 44
http://www.newsweb.no/newsweb/atmnt/080606_Funcom+Update.pdf?id=56103
The above link is a link to Funcoms reports to it's shareholders on the progress of AoC.
Currently the game has 500,000 registered copies of AoC to date; but with the current problems and the dissapointment experienced by players we can only expect the number of actual subscribers to drop significantly during this quarter.
Funcom also reported that it had hit the 1 million copies shipped mark; translating this into actual subscribers is going to be difficult due to the current trend in dissapointment with the game; it's bugs and its lack of immersion and a "massive world".
Could Funcom be in trouble?
Here is their risk document: http://www.funcom.com/funcom/frontend/files/CONTENT/FuncomRiskFactors.pdf
This clearly states that AoC is the now main source of income for Funcom and if AoC fails; it will have a severe impact on the future for Funcom.
I like some of the statements made in some of the other documents too in which they say that allowing players to buy in-game items with real life money is an important aspect for the future of MMO's and that they expect a negative community to have a negative impact on the sales of AoC hence the massive PR wagon at the moment with MMORPG kissing Funcoms arse.
Sad really; but fact.
Comments
Based entirely on this information alone I would say the most important questions are:-
How many of the 500k users who have registered their copy’s will subscribe after their free month.
How many months will the majority of those that choose to subscribe continue to subscribe
How long will it take for the other 500k boxes sitting on shelves to get sold.
How many box sales and more importantly subscriber numbers does Funcom need to recoup its investment costs within a reasonable time frame.
How many subscribers does Funcom need to financially justify actively maintaining the game or more importantly continuing to improve it.
Wonder if we will see Sony pick up this game for station pass. That would be kinda cool although I'd hate to have them split development resources to supporting this game and take away from other games....
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Ethion
AGAIN
who cares about subscriber numbers!
we are players not stock holders. we are players and should care about game play. and the reviews prove its a incomplete but very fun game.
Dear Game Developers,
Nerf Rock.
Paper is fine though.
Regards,
Scissors.
In other press releases in the past they posted they were expecting around 400-500k subs. What do they need from this game? Probably quite a bit less. maybe 200k would be good. The question outstanding is what will they have and what will they do if it isn't enough. At this point I'm thinking they are in trouble and if they don't deliver on their promisses for the month of June then it will be really bad..
So far I'm pretty unimpressed with their patches. They have them frequently for sure but they don't do much and it seems like each patch takes a step back in terms of bugs and issues.
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Ethion
Well i don't think it was hard to figure. Funcom is playing big with AOC, of course if it fails it will hurt the company a lot. Unfortunatly it seems the game wont be as succesful as they tought. Like the previous posters says, how many of the 500k will stay past the free month ? With the amount of whining i'm hearing, not many i would guess, and to have a succesful mmo you need month to month subscribers.
oooh it burns lol
you have no idea at all, have you?
no subscription numbers = no revenue.
no revenue = no updates, free content and limited scope of expansions
the more subscriptions an MMO has, the more content you can generate, as you can afford to have more developers.
I think many of those remaining 500,000 copies are going to be hard to sell, since a lot of gamers would have to spend a decent amount of money to upgrade their rig to play AoC nice and smooth, as opposed to most current games which can be run fine on slightly outdated PCs. Add in all the negative press about bugs, full servers, and others it is going to be a tough sell to those who didn't pre-order.
I absolutely LOVE the IP and have been a devoted Robert E Howard fan for years, so I will be patient with Funcom. It's not easy balancing the desire of gamers vs staying true to the IP.
I will wait to see how the development and support continues for a couple months. I can't remember the last MMO that was awesome right from launch. Does anyone have an example of a great MMO right from launch? Usually I see games really hit their stride (if they do at all) after 3-6 months. I'm sure FunCom is painfully aware of all the important MMOs and other projects coming down the pipeline from other companies (WAR, Wrath expansion for WoW, StarCraft 2, etc). They know a lot of their future profitiability is resting with AoC, so they can't afford to blow it with all the other choices competing for a gamer's dollar.
It feels like watching a car trying to beat the train to get across the tracks. Funcom is too invested in this game to hit the brakes, so they just have to plow forward. They need to get enough subscribers in the next 6 months to ensure a solid fanbase to defend against draws from other products. IF they don't, they won't make a profit, and that spells trouble. Can the Funcom car outrun the debt train and make it through the turbulent first couple months? I hope so. I'd like to see AoC be here for the long run.
If the next 500k box’s sell considerably slower then the first (which I presume they will), then the number of players who have decided not to subscribe past their free month that can be convinced to re-subscribe by Funcom will definitely be of significance to increasing AOC’s maximum potential subscriber numbers for the short to medium term.
Of course the most important factor is exactly what percentage of people will subscribe after their free month, if its 50% then we are looking at a maximum of around 250-350k subscribers in the short term.
It could be higher (I personally cant see it being much higher), or it could be lower, if its 25% then we are looking at 125-175k subscribers over the short term.
But exactly how many months the average subscribers subscribes is just as important as the total number of subscribers, 250k for 1 month is a lot worse then 125k for 6 months.
I saw this and found it rather interesting
http://wowriot.gameriot.com/blogs/Epidemic-Obesity/Age-of-Conan-Desperate-for-Subscribers
if those figures are true AoC is doomed.
so according to those figures we are looking at more around 10% subscription rate.
I link you to the article that guy wrote after that one....
wowriot.gameriot.com/blogs/Epidemic-Obesity/Age-of-Conan-Poised-to-Dominate-WoW/
Point being. That guy has no credibility and his information is obviously extremely wrong and you can't trust a word of it.
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I live to fight, and fight to live.
I play WoW as well and enjoy it only in doses.. I would'nt take anything seriously from a WoW sight though.. The WoW community hates to see it guilds disbanded or put on hold when a new game arrives to take some player base away for a long time or temporary.
on another note..
Warhammer will have the same fanboys (including myself) and the haters of Warhammer and why it will not succeed. Get ready for a post apocalypse on Warhammer, coming soon to MMORPG.COM!
It will be the same shit, different story and game hate all together from the new Anti-Warhammer hate club.
On the subject of AoC, even though this game is under alot of heat from the hardcore playerbase, the game will still be around for time to come. No AoC is'nt going anywhere as many of you wish it to fail and leave the mmorpg market all together.
I link you to the article that guy wrote after that one....
wowriot.gameriot.com/blogs/Epidemic-Obesity/Age-of-Conan-Poised-to-Dominate-WoW/
Point being. That guy has no credibility and his information is obviously extremely wrong and you can't trust a word of it.
haha,
looks like the PR revenue dollars got to him too. That's all there is to see there.
I think most people know from playing the game that its going directly to console or their trying very hard to get it there.. The game is way too simplistic in nature to be played on a pc.. and mmo pc gamers more than likely realize thats where its heading so they didn't bother to sub for the 2nd month after the free month. I was in EA so I had the extra week of play after the non EA's were done and thog was starting to dwindle down in pop numbers.. I'd be surprised if they had 70k subs right now tbh.. and I wouldn't be surprised if it was more like 30-45k subs..
I hope the game falls flat on its face so the next company who tries to put out unfinished garbage gets kicked in the sack too on their way to the UEI lines..
no subscription numbers = no revenue.
no revenue = no updates, free content and limited scope of expansions
the more subscriptions an MMO has, the more content you can generate, as you can afford to have more developers.
If this is true, why does it take Blizzard 1.5 years between expansion releaases?
[url=http://www.flickr.com/photos/28371832@N02/2648951313/[/url]
No credit for that writer whatsoever.
It's not only unprofessional to write 2 entirely contradictory articles regarding the same game, it's unethical.
Waiting for something fresh to arrive on the MMO scene...
No one needed some blogger to tell us the game was a complete and utter failure..
They need a minimum number of subscribers to:
1) operate the game and make a profit
2) the 'profit' won't be a profit at first as they have to pay off the cost of development
3) They borrowed at least $30 million from outside the company that also has to be paid back.
4) obviously the number of subscribers matters.. if you can't understand why yet.. then there is no hope.
oh and
5) I make no attempt to claim they have any paticular number of subscribers (high or low) I was just trying to answer your question as to why it would matter.
No one needed some blogger to tell us the game was a complete and utter failure..
Er.. but someone needs to tell you that its not I guess....
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
no subscription numbers = no revenue.
no revenue = no updates, free content and limited scope of expansions
the more subscriptions an MMO has, the more content you can generate, as you can afford to have more developers.
That doesnt seem to be the case with World of Warcraft :P
If this is true, why does it take Blizzard 1.5 years between expansion releaases?
Because Blizzard is world renown for having top quality games with little or no game breaking bugs! Sure they had a few probs during their launch and I know of at least 1-2 major patches that messed several things up for a few days, but overall Blizzard just rocks with quality!
Also the way WoW is focused on end-game raiding for gear....having such large gaps in expansions allows even the casual players sufficient time to collect the set gear and use them before they're deemed obsolete in the next exp...LOL
Blizzard is likely funneling most of its profit into development on other games. We already know about diablo 3 and starcraft 2, and the latest WoW expansion. They probably wont make any more major moves with WoW than that because they have no problem keeping subs or getting new ones. The squeeky wheel gets the grease, they arent going to burn money if they don't have to.
Waiting for: A skill-based MMO with Freedom and Consequence.
Woe to thee, the pierce-ed.
They need a minimum number of subscribers to:
1) operate the game and make a profit
2) the 'profit' won't be a profit at first as they have to pay off the cost of development
3) They borrowed at least $30 million from outside the company that also has to be paid back.
4) obviously the number of subscribers matters.. if you can't understand why yet.. then there is no hope.
oh and
5) I make no attempt to claim they have any paticular number of subscribers (high or low) I was just trying to answer your question as to why it would matter.
They already made that 30 mil back on box sales. Plus if they keep half the purchased boxes as subscribers they'll be making 3.75 mil a month, minus their operating costs which I hope aren't anywhere near 3.75 mil a month.
It's already passed the first month since release and I still see plenty of players online.
They need a minimum number of subscribers to:
1) operate the game and make a profit
2) the 'profit' won't be a profit at first as they have to pay off the cost of development
3) They borrowed at least $30 million from outside the company that also has to be paid back.
4) obviously the number of subscribers matters.. if you can't understand why yet.. then there is no hope.
oh and
5) I make no attempt to claim they have any paticular number of subscribers (high or low) I was just trying to answer your question as to why it would matter.
They already made that 30 mil back on box sales. Plus if they keep half the purchased boxes as subscribers they'll be making 3.75 mil a month, minus their operating costs which I hope aren't anywhere near 3.75 mil a month.
It's already passed the first month since release and I still see plenty of players online.
Not true. 500k x $50 = 25Mil. Math FTW. (Assuming they sold half of the 1Mil shipped boxes)
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I live to fight, and fight to live.