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Summer of 2009
alyndale
Member UncommonPosts: 936
This time next year, (Summer 2009), we'll have these games to choose from;
- WoW: Wrath of the Lich King
- Warhammer Online
- Age of Conan
- The Chronicles of Spellborn
- Aion
- Stargate Worlds
- Huxley (unsure of this one's release date?)
- Darkfall...sighs..nuff said 'bout this one's release
- Earthrise, (again unsure about true release date?)
In truth, folks where do you actually believe AoC will fall in overall popularity by Summer of 2009 with all these upcoming choices? My guess is that Aion is going to be the sleeper actually giving both WAR and WoW a good run for it's money, based on the world-wide fan base for the similar,but different Lineage 2. TCoS will have something to say as well in this mix as it will be popular to many, especially in Europe. Stargate Worlds could grab many sci-fi fans if it works as hoped. The rest on the list, I simply don't know enough about.
We must remember what over-hyping does to a game and it's company. Sigil/SoE's Vanguard had this to deal with at release and it was an "EPIC failure", only now becoming playable and interesting after over one year of release. Both AoC and Warhammer have slammed us with hype and commercial offers for at least a year now. Are we witnessing what a player base's expectations are based on over-hype with FunCom's AoC? Possibly not as bad a failure as Vanguard, but a close second, I wager.
NCSoft and TCoS have been very, very conservative with the amount of information released about their upcoming offerings. This bodes well I have to say. Less of those overwhelming and sometimes unrealistic expectations upon release. Thus, it could be that these two MMO's may possibly be very successful and compete very well with WoW and WAR. Warhammer most certainly will have a faction imbalance, possibly and is so very similar in style to WoW. I said similar, NOT exactly! NCSoft produce Lineage and later Lineage 2. Arguably L2 was the world's most popular MMO from April to December of 2004 before the release of EQ 2 and WoW. It remained a close competitor even into 2005. Not until 2006 did L 2 begin to wane in popularity. I base my attitude of Aion based on these past historical observations. Aion may not be on top by Jan 2010, but I'll bet it will be in the top 3. TCoS could very well be right up there with the top guns as well, based on what I have read on their official forums and the following they have built from the past several years of development.
Will be very interesting to watch all this transpire going into next year. We shall see, won't we?
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth
John Lennon
Comments
can add a few more
DC Universe MMO is expected for 2009
www.massively.com/2008/06/27/dc-universe-online-details-emerge/
Lego Universe is 2009
www.massively.com/2008/07/06/lego-universe-revamps-website-and-opens-the-creation-lab/
and who knows what else
that said --- MMO tastes are different for everyone
EQ2 fan sites
IF all these titles meet their release dates, or even come close it will be a great thing. To long has there been little to no new quality MMOs realease.
That said, I think the game(s) that hold off on rushed releases to meet artificial or marketing inspired release dates will be the most popular. If there is one thing we have seen with the AOC release, people no longer are willing to accept unfinished games. Honestly, I think the biggest reason for the AOC unrest is the fact that the features hyped and even ON THE BOX are not in the game. To me that is completely false advertising boarding on fraud. Not working quite right, expected. Some unforeseen bugs and balance fixes needed, expected.
But to release a retail box with all these fabulous features and then load up the game and they are not included is, as I said, Fraud. If I went down to BEst Buy and made picked out say a DVD player based on the features listed on the box, then got it home and low and behold it actually didn't have those features, ya I would be returning it to the store, demanding my money back and probably never trust in that company again. Because it is a video game makes no difference in my mind. Its a consumer product. The ad features need to be in the game at launch.
Realistically, no one expects a game at launch to be bug free and polished like a 4 year old game. Some things do not come to light until a players base on mass has at it. But to use AOC as an example. Unacceptable IMO.
1) WoW will destroy AoC in both sales and subs
2) WAR will also destroy AOC in subs, dunno about sales. Probably WAR will initially sell similar maybe slightly less to AoC but its retention will be double AoC and will not have the truly gigantic drop in sales/subs that AoC is now having
3) Chronicles, Aion, earthrise - meh some buzz on these but I just don't see them catching on that much. Probably similar to AoC's eventual ~200k subs
4) I really do not think Stargate worlds will do well
5) Huxley - I dunno isn't that an FPS and not a RPG? that makes comparison hard. Also itsbeen in development and pushed back and such eh meh
6) Darkfall is vaporware not even gonna speculate
darkfall vapurware... earthrise coming out in sum 09, my balls it is. only interesting one is huxley which is an instanced FPS. war will be popular but then we all know why.
I woudl say the game would last will summ 09 but the current patchs are a pile of crap that break more things than fix.
My blog:
You know....I would do anything....anything(well anything within reason of course) to have a good sci-fi game come along.
So we'd figure out a way to fix that! ^_^
With massive seamless worlds to explore. Start with like 5 worlds and build from there. Whole worlds. Not half-baked ones. With their own mobs, races, cultures. Try to add at least 2 new worlds every six months. The tech is here to do this. With the right people and proper tools I believe it can be done.
Instances - like your own house, apartment to keep unwelcome visitors out - toggable - so people can enter whenever they want.
FPS style combat for ranged attacks.
Yes melee would be viable since players would have to aim with their ranged weapons.
Trading.
Crafting.
Resource gathering.
Ships we can fly in the atmosphere as well as in space - and you don't ahve to wait till 40 to get one! Get the money, train the skill and buy one!
Mounts! You don't would have to be 40 to get one! Just get the money train the skill and buy one!
Full on PvP...with the ability to loot corpses(to some extent).
PvP rulesets that would discourage and punish griefers (harshly).
New voice tech added for chat - like proximity and morphing abilities. Ugh I can't stand looking at a PC that is a girl and hearing a guys voice come on vent for it.
It would be a leveless game.
Skill based. The more your character uses a skill the better they get at it - never caps...but eventaully will be almost impossible to get enough points to raise it.
No classes per se, but your skills determine your class.
Stats that determine what skills you can get.
Graphics would be like WoW's just a little better in the realism.
Lots of cool emotes.
The game would provide lots of tools for RP'ers.
Housing. Becoming a part of a city in game.
PC owned shops, that have NPC vendors when you're not online or off doing other things in game.
I'd elimante the grind by having the game randomly generate quest and missons.
Missions and quest would scale to the abilities of the player/s involved - (no more "Oh damn I cannot do that quest because I out leveled it!)
Some story driven content that would be added on a monthly basis.
Players can have an impact on the game and how it progresses.
There would be no raids!
No PvP gear. Gear is gear. Lots of cool gear mind you though.
I'd have loot that drops with randomly generated stats like the way AC's did.
Crafted gear has the potential to be better than looted gear (key word potential).
MoBs would have better AI then we see in current games and they would scale with the player in some cases.
Content would be added and the players would not know until they discovered it.
Good players that frequently report flaws or bugs would be rewarded and might even be asked to become members of a special team of game testers to try out new content.
Excellent customer service. Not half arsed. But excellent.
Above all else - the game would reek of fun!
If I had the money and the means I would make such a game.
I actually think i will step off The MMorpg train, and cruise abit in a smart little MiMorpg. Mini multiplayer online role playing game(!!). Or in other words; i think im going to play Diablo 3.
I miss the old isometrich view. Most of the 3d mmo`s just dosnt tickle my dream away parts. They are like crappy, uninspiring IRL simulations. Isometrich 2d games are like fine toys. They leave abit to the imagination. And they focus more on gameplay, then game engine. And are better at creating atsmopheres. Like kids who enjoy playing with small toycars more then sitting in those noisy, Police cars with nauseating movements, toystores placed at theier fronts. Short version; im abit tired of beeing forced into a 3d world, mainly created by geeks.
But if i had to estimate....
1.Wow will climb to 14-15 mill
2.Warhammer will have around 6-700k -they will prolly have to much blizz competetion.
3. Aion can end anywhere between 150k and 2mill sub`s
4. Star gate World. Prolly like Tabula rasa when it was on its highest ( at launch?)
5. Chronicle. I think this game will end up with a small but tight and fanatic community.
6. Aoc will float away with very low subs for a periode. After a year it might become popular again; when ppl have forgot most of the troubles they had...
7. Huxley will reveal itself as a shooter.
8. No idea where Darkfall is..
9. Earthrise. Seems like the game lack like 95% production time, However if they nail that Fallout feel; count me in...
Thanks to everyone's input here. As we all realize nothing's written in stone until the games are released. We can only surmise what it will be. I suppose that's half the fun of all this.
I do believe thus far everyone has some good points in their estimations. Blizzard will be the only factor in the demise of it's current "flagship". Somewhere along the Blizz rumor mill you can find that many believe Blizz's next great offering in the MMO market will indeed be a sci-fi styled game.
At any rate, whatever that gaming giant does in the future, I hope they will improve game design/graphics, communications, tech support, and animation engine, to name a few. Upgrade for the 21st century in other words.
I might also add as a question here what are top four or five gaming developers at this time? As of now, I see three powerhouses; Blizzard, Mythic, and NCSoft. Any others that are just as well-suited to foot the bill for designing and marketing new games? I do believe we are going to start seeing more hyper-intensive commercials online as well as on Television possibly as soon as this Christmas season. Anyone have a feel for this prediction?
Thanks again ladies and gentlmen for your input, makes for an interesting thread.
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth
John Lennon
Guild Wars 2 and Diablo 3 are also possiblities for next summer as well, though their release dates haven't been announced yet. We might have to wait until 2010 for those two. Mortal probably won't be out until 2010 as well and I don't expect Darkfall to ever get off it's feet if it even is released.
I just wanted to quote you Nadia because I'm pretty sure DC Universe was canned; Champions Online on the other hand is coming out around that time though (supposedly early 2009 but these dates are always pushed back this early).
NCSoft is not a developer. Well that is not entirely true now that the CoX team is NCsoft. But baiscally that is a special case.
The best developers in order are:
#1 ArenaNet - Best design, best balance. Everything hangs together really well. They may be the only development house that truly understand how to design something as a comprehensive system from the ground up. ANet is also extremelly good at putting out quality, but what would you expect from the real powerhouses of the old Blizzard? Jeff Strain was the technical powerhouse of Blizz. With Guild Wars Anet was basically the first development house to realize that Open Beta is no longer a test. When people look back they will come to realize that Anet really had a very good understanding of how things are actually working. Highest level of quality, best understanding of what they are trying to do. Best development house bar none.
#2 CCP - similar to ArenaNet but not quite as good. Both houses understand the purpose of what they are doing. Basically CCP has some slip ups in each area. Eve and GW are vastly different games but when you look at the development ideas behind them they are very similar they just had different goals. Also CCP lacked the initial advantage of having the Blizzard culture show them the benefits the QA approach
#3 Blizzard - Blizzard's biggest strength is quality assurance, smoothness and taking out unnecessary obstacles. Otherwise they are not really all that inspired really and while they strive for QA they do not fully understand what or why they are doing things. That is why CCP and Anet are better developers. Blizzard goes through an iterative process and hopes they eventually hit the mark.
#4 Turbine - If it were solely based on LOTRO I would put Turbine above Blizzard since they are more creative and innovative, but due to various problems and bumps in the road with othr games I can't do that. Otherwise similar to Blizzard. Their quality is a little more hit or miss but they are definitely more innovative. And Even though DDO has its problems its combat is as good or better than AoC and was made years ago.
Can't really rate Mythic yet. DAOC is from another Era. We will have to wait until a couple months after WAR's release to say for sure.
The bioware mmo is also suppose to come out in 2009.
..Oh ya, thats true. Bioware ftw.
Anyone knows what happened to the devs who worked in Black Isle Studio? Small division under Bioware umbrella, who was rivaling Blizzards Diablo serie and frankly blew it away in terms of quality ( Baldurs Gate, Fallout and the gem of truly rpg art; Planescape Torment). Get those dev`s together plz, so they can make a Planescape MMO.
Some really interesting posts here. I like where this is going. Maybe we will see some changes in MMO-Players attitude which will affect the developers attitude towards their games.
In other words, we need better MMO's. More immersion, more idealistic approaches. We need to get back to the good old ideas on how MMOs should be like! Mixed with some more futuristic ideas ;-)
oh how i miss in depth MMO's.... Biowares MMO (KOTOR 3 supposedly) will be incredible if it comes out 2009, has my vote for sure. I read some of the designers ideas they have for the game and if they pull them off I will say good bye to my social life for sure
Uhh... what?
Maybe Ryzom comes back
Aoc is ( still play and pay ) a big censored ( but in the name you want ) . And hej i don't hate the game , but i hate censorship !
Based on the choices the OP listed, I'd say the list would look something like this:
I think once Aion comes out it'll overtake AoC in popularity, its looking to be one hell of a game. I think that by this time next year Warhammer will be huge in terms of retained subs, and all the others (Huxley, Earthrise, Darkfall, etc) will have 50-100k subs if they manage to launch.
Waiting for Fallen Earth, World of Darkness, Old Republic, FFXIV
Here's my instant-approval for a Planescape MMORPG - Torment has to be my favourite CRPG of all time.
As for the likely releases of 2009, I'm in for anything. Will play them all: Aion, WAR, TCOS... Each seem like they could be a lot of fun, though I have to say none really seem to be moving the genre into new ground.
Maybe Hero's Journey could be something fresh, but I doubt we'll see it released in 2009. I hope Bioware thinks out of the box with their MMO - they always value setting, story and character and that's already a huge plus in my book.
What I'd really like to see is a sci-fi MMORP with huge megalopoli... Something along the lines of Blade Runner or Neuromancer would do. Not purely combat based, with lots of story elements, background and puzzle-solving.
If NCsoft isn't developer so who created Lineage, Lineage 2 and creating Aion, Lineage 3??
In will try Aion and WAR, but probably in 2009 summer will be playing Aion. I think Aion gonna be good because it have very expierence developer team ( more than 10years developing mmos), big budget,isn't being pushed by company to release game faster and ofcourse has very much features.
1. WoW vs. AION
WoW is polished game already and going for all it's features in WotLK. AION on other side is innovative, has great gfx and if devs do it like NON-grindfest, like they say they'd do, then it could be greatest game. Adding new content and making game world/history richer is no problem for NCsoft (or their devs companies) - we can see it from their other fanchaises, and they did it quick and good so far.
2. AoC vs. WAR
Because these to games got big problems already. WAR will be relesed with big part of content missing (and no matter what beta testers saing - 'cause u play that game in test mode when bugs and mistakes are normal and u play it for free. I dont think it's great idea to pay money for the game u'd like to get fun from full-heat and to get only part of it. AoC.. everybody already knows what's going on... So i don't think any of those going to top till summer 2009, because many improvments will need to be done.. but in summer 2010 - maybe, if devs'll do what is need to be done right.
3. Stargate vs. Earthrise (if it's live) vs. TCoS
Stargate and Earthrise could give many MMO players what they strive for - New Great Sci-Fi Setting MMO with Great Ideas, but i don't think non of them will come till summer 2009, atleast in playeble state. TCoS has some nice things, good gfx (if u like the sort), but with other titles comming - like was said, it would have "a small but tight and fanatic community" - so just a good game for good ppl ;P
4. New Bioware MMO vs. New CCP MMO vs. everything else
I don't think KotOR 3 would be "new MMO". It would be single player game. And I hope that new Bioware MMO would be in KotOR Universe. New CCP (White Wolf) MMO in horror Vampire/Warewolf world is great thing
always wanna try smth like that 
But i don't think non of them will come till summer 2009... sadly but true... Everything else.. I dont interested in any other mmo yet, so can't say 'bout them anything :P
Originally posted by Zhqrxt
..Oh ya, thats true. Bioware ftw.
Anyone knows what happened to the devs who worked in Black Isle Studio? Small division under Bioware umbrella, who was rivaling Blizzards Diablo serie and frankly blew it away in terms of quality ( Baldurs Gate, Fallout and the gem of truly rpg art; Planescape Torment). Get those dev`s together plz, so they can make a Planescape MMO.
Planescape Torment is the Best RPG Ever !!!
i don't remember any other game that i've completed 3 times and enjoyed everytime nontheless than first one 
(only Fallout got close to it, and BG with NWN somewhere near it). And this is really sad that P:T 2 was closed not even started, and it doesn't look like there is gonna be P:T MMO - but it could be most antisipated by me and many others I think 8)
Old Black Isle team had quited.. Most of them went to Troika Games (Vampires the Maskarade - Bloodlines) and after the fall of their too buggy bot good nontheless game, they all had quited in differend dirrections... i don't know more about it...
Edit: I've forgot bout LotRO... and after looking closer to it - it's great game, not the best, but really Great
Devs are great too and New Expansion looks like promissing stuff - so I'll put it somewhere betwen 1st and 2nd, because i personaly, got lil'bit tired of Tolkiens stories... but the game could be even on number 1, if other titles failed 
Edited for a bid more realistic game list, why does everyone always forget Lotro?
Playing: World of Warcraft.
Played: Lord of the Rings Online, Starwars Galaxies.
Tried: Starwars the Old Republic, Everquest 2, Guild Wars, Vanguard, Age of Conan, Aion.
DCU is not canned -- they released some recent news 2 weeks ago
www.eurogamer.net/article.php
altho the article was corrected saying there has been no planned date yet, 2009 is premature
EQ2 fan sites
Really hard to say until the time is here. Aion lacks mid-end game content and is more of a grind than anyone here will lead you to believe, and it has some pretty serious issues so far which means fixing these will take priority over content.
WAR is cutting back content so they don't get reamed the way AoC did by the new WoW influenced MMO community.
WoTLK will be polished, but how many will be pissed at getting reset again? Will they just fall for the same crap and grind out epic gear just to get reset once again??
Diablo III will come out and pull in a ton of players away from MMO's for sure...
If AoC polishes it's end game it could be a serious contender. Especially if you look through the hype and see that WAR is shaping up to be a lower content mix of WoW and DaOC, and Aion is shaping up to be like WoW but with far less content and a lot more grind. I don't expect either to hold a ton of members for too long. If AoC can flesh out it's end game and make something meaningful then it could really compete.
I am keeping my eye on all of the games in my sig as i'm pretty much done with mainstream titles for at least 2 or 3 years. They aren't catering to my playstyle in any aspect.
Pray for me, and the games in my sig please!
Edited for a bid more realistic game list, why does everyone always forget Lotro?
Aww, mighty AckbarNL and wise Narshe, I am so humbled and feel badly. Yes, I'm afraid I did leave out LotRO purely because I simply forgot. I could flog myself for that!
We mustn't forget that in 2007, LotRO had the smoothest release in many a year. I would say compared even to the latest releases of this year it still compares as best overall release.
I do feel as though LotRO will continue with a staunch following of subscribers as they have today. Of course depending on some other variables might even pick up a few subscriptions as well!
Say what you will ladies and gentlemen LotRO is till a solid choice for a standard MMO.
Please forgive my lack in consideration AckbarNL and Narshe!
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth
John Lennon
Lol, i can see you don't do research or readed some wrong info.
1.Aion lacked mid-end content in PAST closed betas because developers didn't included in game all teritory now they included more teritory, more quest and main thing Abyss big zones where mid and end game happens. Now in beta Aion have near content which WoW haved at louch and end game zones aren't revealed yet. Also Aion has hundred's of quest so how can it be alot more grind than WOW.You say what Aion have serious problems name one.
War have perspective if they won't rush with release it can be pretty good game.
AoC need's much polishing to be competing with outers and it will be pretty hard convince people back to the game.
"Really hard to say until the time is here. Aion lacks mid-end game content and is more of a grind than anyone here will lead you to believe, and it has some pretty serious issues so far which means fixing these will take priority over content."
..as taken from ProfRed
_____________________________________________________________________________________
ProfRed, truly astounding news from Aion, considering they've been very secretive about anything with this game. I have seen a few snippets here and there and much assumption about the game play. I have read about patches from the current Korean beta version, however I yet to see anything that hints of these problems.
Could you please link for us the archival data that explains exactly what these issues may be? it is supposed that grinding will not be as Lineage 2 and lack of content does disturb me quite a bit. If you could send a link our way, I do believe all on this truly interesting thread would appreciate it.
Thanks, ProfRed!
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth
John Lennon
Just wanted to toss Fallen Earth into the mix. Seems they will probably release late this year or early next year.
This is the game that I will call home for a long time, I think.