I'm factoring in all of NA, Oceanic and Euro servers and going to go with 50+.
Couldn't be releasing at a better time to get people playing imho since they're trying to draw a large amount of bored and disgruntled players from wow.
There has been no other time like this time to be a bored and disgruntled wow player believe me. They've said no new content either pvp or pve until the expansion, which is still a few months out. So the population of people wanting to seek something else to kill time with in the meantime will definately seek greener pastures over at this title.
Not to mention the droves of disenchanted AoC players and enthusiastic DAoC fans as well as fans of the Warhammer franchise coming on board. Right now, at this current time is a great time for a massive game like this to open and I expect a large server population to support all of this interest.
Now if the game flops after all this and loses interest of those coming from wow when Wotlk hits the shelves all remains to be seen. But in the 3 month time frame of this poll, I'll say it's going to be huge during that time. Hopefully it's a good game and keeps a healthy population over time as well, I look forward to playing many expansions in this game world, alot of lore to draw on for future content.
There wont be 50+at release no way....Have you any idea how much it costs for to have just 1 server up?
I think somewhere around 25 and they will add different server types as they feel they should.
If someone had came up to me in 1980 when I was on my Atari 2600 and said we will be playing games with thousands of people at the same time.I guess my response would have been,"but I only have 2 joysticks"
Id say thats a good guess. Im leaning closer to 40 though. I dont think they're going to get to huge of a rush initially. Maybe 100- 300k players. Depending on how the buyers like the game Im guessing about 150k stable subscribers. Thats just a guess based off how I like the game though. Sure as hell beats AOC though. Much more stable.
I am going to keep hush on my choice, dont know if this violates NDA rules since I am in beta.
Anyways, I must be on one of the luckiest servers, cause I dont see anyone really bitching about the game, everyone is too busy pouncing on everyone else in game and leveling.
Id say thats a good guess. Im leaning closer to 40 though. I dont think they're going to get to huge of a rush initially. Maybe 100- 300k players. Depending on how the buyers like the game Im guessing about 150k stable subscribers. Thats just a guess based off how I like the game though. Sure as hell beats AOC though. Much more stable.
Hmm... I'm thinking more. Over 800k signed up to beta. I would assume that there will be more than 100-300k players at release.
Originally posted by Techleo Id say thats a good guess. Im leaning closer to 40 though. I dont think they're going to get to huge of a rush initially. Maybe 100- 300k players. Depending on how the buyers like the game Im guessing about 150k stable subscribers. Thats just a guess based off how I like the game though. Sure as hell beats AOC though. Much more stable.
If it beats AOC why would the numbers be so low compared to AOC. I'm guessing 500K in the first week easily.
I believe NA will get 20 servers alone at launch. EU will get 15, and Oceanic will get 5. 40 servers off the start and it will double over the first month.
I just got done reading a quote from...Mark Jacobs he made earlier this afternoon, here's a snip from the quote:
"... And by the end of OB, I think we will have more people simultaneously playing WAR than almost any other MMO."
That's quite a bold statement.
I don't think he would say something like that publicly without some real interesting data to back it up. Sounds like they''re betting on more, alot more than some of the conservative estimates here.
When DAoC was released and the servers were full, someone asked Mythic "Why there are so few servers?" A Mythic-dev answered: "We didn´t expect so many players."
How many servers at release?
AoC has 50+ worldwide (?) WoW has 50+ here in Germany
I think it will be somewhere between these 2 statements.
From what I assume, this weekend will be the tell-all on how many players can occupy a server. That will give them a population cap and build enough from there before release.
"... And by the end of OB, I think we will have more people simultaneously playing WAR than almost any other MMO."
That's quite a bold statement.
its not as bold as you think. the preview weekend is going to be 100k+ people getting access to the game for 1 weekend, that means pretty much EVERYONE will be online. as the game moves on of course people won't play every day, so you'll get peaks ect. the biggest peaks are right when things are released, and a 1 weekend open is going to create a pretty big peak.
My guess is headstart will be the largest peak, because when given a few days people WILL get in game. sorta like how the launch date of BC was one of the largest peaks in WoWs history. (the largest?)
Everything creates huge amounts of negativity on the internet, that's what the internet is for: Negativity, porn and lolcats.
I wouldn't begin to be a server number prognosticator because that means you have to also predict the number of active accounts the game is going to be supporting.
What I can do is represent the number of game servers as a formula where:
S is number of servers
P is number of active players
C is max number of players per server
thus:
P / C = S
Since the server cap in beta seems to be around 2 to 2.5 K and the Beta signups are approximately 800 k you could speculate an approximate minimum at
800K / 2.5K = 320
Of course that result assumes the following
1) a concurent number of player sign-ins,
2) that the actual number of concurrently active players equals the beta sign-up amount,
3) the beta server populartion caps will be carried into release
If any of these assumptions change, then the number of game servers will need to change accordingly.
Other factors such as the amount of internet bandwidth, the load capacity of the Mythic internal network, the load capacity of the account servers, etc. will all moderate this number as well. I'm sure that Mythic has studied the contingencies involved, and is prepared to field a reasonable number of servers to support the anticipated player population. The question for them is what happens if the anticipated player population exceeds or is below their expected thresholds. Ways to mitigate this to a degree are to rent servers from a hosting facility that allows scaling, this way they can quickly expand to meet demand without making a large capital investment in potentially underpopulated servers.
defiently going to bump my post, after being in this 2nd Pre-View weekend.. 50+ servers within the 1st 3 months is going to be no problem.. then again.. I do intend to over speculate..
Aren't there around 12-15 servers up now? And it's not even Open Beta?? Considering only 50k SE subs got into the Preview Weekend, i think they'll be at 10-30 just during Open Beta just for the influx of all the other SE subs.
--------------------------------------------- I live to fight, and fight to live.
50+ easily. WAR will break 1 mil subs within the first 3 months (assuming the have enough boxes to sell).
I laugh at people who voted 1-9. Reality check! There are 10ish servers (didn't actually count) in Beta right now and they are packed with login queues.
MJ has it right I think. The day WAR launches it will have the 2nd highest subscriber rating of any MMO in North America/Europe.
While I doubt it will ever touch 10mil like WoW it will settle in nicely anywhere between 1 and 5 mil (my guess) and establish itself as the 2nd MMO to have "real" success.
Comments
I'm factoring in all of NA, Oceanic and Euro servers and going to go with 50+.
Couldn't be releasing at a better time to get people playing imho since they're trying to draw a large amount of bored and disgruntled players from wow.
There has been no other time like this time to be a bored and disgruntled wow player believe me. They've said no new content either pvp or pve until the expansion, which is still a few months out. So the population of people wanting to seek something else to kill time with in the meantime will definately seek greener pastures over at this title.
Not to mention the droves of disenchanted AoC players and enthusiastic DAoC fans as well as fans of the Warhammer franchise coming on board. Right now, at this current time is a great time for a massive game like this to open and I expect a large server population to support all of this interest.
Now if the game flops after all this and loses interest of those coming from wow when Wotlk hits the shelves all remains to be seen. But in the 3 month time frame of this poll, I'll say it's going to be huge during that time. Hopefully it's a good game and keeps a healthy population over time as well, I look forward to playing many expansions in this game world, alot of lore to draw on for future content.
There wont be 50+at release no way....Have you any idea how much it costs for to have just 1 server up?
I think somewhere around 25 and they will add different server types as they feel they should.
If someone had came up to me in 1980 when I was on my Atari 2600 and said we will be playing games with thousands of people at the same time.I guess my response would have been,"but I only have 2 joysticks"
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/235780/page/8
Id say thats a good guess. Im leaning closer to 40 though. I dont think they're going to get to huge of a rush initially. Maybe 100- 300k players. Depending on how the buyers like the game Im guessing about 150k stable subscribers. Thats just a guess based off how I like the game though. Sure as hell beats AOC though. Much more stable.
I am going to keep hush on my choice, dont know if this violates NDA rules since I am in beta.
Anyways, I must be on one of the luckiest servers, cause I dont see anyone really bitching about the game, everyone is too busy pouncing on everyone else in game and leveling.
This game will eat yours hours away....
Hmm... I'm thinking more. Over 800k signed up to beta. I would assume that there will be more than 100-300k players at release.
I know what the server cap is. And guessing how many will be playing after 3 months I say 400.
They will start with 20-30 total.
If you are making a reference to what server cap is in beta now, i can guarantee you it won't be that low at launch.
If it beats AOC why would the numbers be so low compared to AOC. I'm guessing 500K in the first week easily.
20-25
Played > UO AC AC2 AO SWG FFXI DAOC GW WOW L2 EQ2 LOTRO EVE CoX DDO EAB Neo MXO TR AOC War Aion
Playing > Nothing
Awaiting > Sigh..
Wishing > Shadowrun Online
Let's hope EA/Mythic has plotted for the worst and reserved us a small third world country full of servers...and air conditioners for said servers....
I mean, look at the state fileplanet is in.
I believe NA will get 20 servers alone at launch. EU will get 15, and Oceanic will get 5. 40 servers off the start and it will double over the first month.
I just got done reading a quote from...Mark Jacobs he made earlier this afternoon, here's a snip from the quote:
"... And by the end of OB, I think we will have more people simultaneously playing WAR than almost any other MMO."
That's quite a bold statement.
I don't think he would say something like that publicly without some real interesting data to back it up. Sounds like they''re betting on more, alot more than some of the conservative estimates here.
A truly bold statement.
Not as bad as..
Why eat McDonalds, if you can have steak.
When DAoC was released and the servers were full, someone asked Mythic "Why there are so few servers?"
A Mythic-dev answered: "We didn´t expect so many players."
How many servers at release?
AoC has 50+ worldwide (?)
WoW has 50+ here in Germany
I think it will be somewhere between these 2 statements.
30
From what I assume, this weekend will be the tell-all on how many players can occupy a server. That will give them a population cap and build enough from there before release.
I counted the servers I see so far, I wonder if that is still enough?
When we last played CB, the most I saw was about 2k players per server.
So if the invite for the preview weekend is about 50k+? We may have alot of servers.
Anyways, I see alot of ppl been choosing 20 to 29. I am still going to stick to my fanboy # of 50+ when the
servers go live Sept 18th.
its not as bold as you think. the preview weekend is going to be 100k+ people getting access to the game for 1 weekend, that means pretty much EVERYONE will be online. as the game moves on of course people won't play every day, so you'll get peaks ect. the biggest peaks are right when things are released, and a 1 weekend open is going to create a pretty big peak.
My guess is headstart will be the largest peak, because when given a few days people WILL get in game. sorta like how the launch date of BC was one of the largest peaks in WoWs history. (the largest?)
Everything creates huge amounts of negativity on the internet, that's what the internet is for: Negativity, porn and lolcats.
I wouldn't begin to be a server number prognosticator because that means you have to also predict the number of active accounts the game is going to be supporting.
What I can do is represent the number of game servers as a formula where:
S is number of servers
P is number of active players
C is max number of players per server
thus:
P / C = S
Since the server cap in beta seems to be around 2 to 2.5 K and the Beta signups are approximately 800 k you could speculate an approximate minimum at
800K / 2.5K = 320
Of course that result assumes the following
1) a concurent number of player sign-ins,
2) that the actual number of concurrently active players equals the beta sign-up amount,
3) the beta server populartion caps will be carried into release
If any of these assumptions change, then the number of game servers will need to change accordingly.
Other factors such as the amount of internet bandwidth, the load capacity of the Mythic internal network, the load capacity of the account servers, etc. will all moderate this number as well. I'm sure that Mythic has studied the contingencies involved, and is prepared to field a reasonable number of servers to support the anticipated player population. The question for them is what happens if the anticipated player population exceeds or is below their expected thresholds. Ways to mitigate this to a degree are to rent servers from a hosting facility that allows scaling, this way they can quickly expand to meet demand without making a large capital investment in potentially underpopulated servers.
I hope this helps.
I am still sticky with my #50+ 3 months.
defiently going to bump my post, after being in this 2nd Pre-View weekend..
50+ servers within the 1st 3 months is going to be no problem.. then again.. I do intend to over speculate..
Aren't there around 12-15 servers up now? And it's not even Open Beta?? Considering only 50k SE subs got into the Preview Weekend, i think they'll be at 10-30 just during Open Beta just for the influx of all the other SE subs.
---------------------------------------------
I live to fight, and fight to live.
40 at launch world wide.
50+ easily. WAR will break 1 mil subs within the first 3 months (assuming the have enough boxes to sell).
I laugh at people who voted 1-9. Reality check! There are 10ish servers (didn't actually count) in Beta right now and they are packed with login queues.
MJ has it right I think. The day WAR launches it will have the 2nd highest subscriber rating of any MMO in North America/Europe.
While I doubt it will ever touch 10mil like WoW it will settle in nicely anywhere between 1 and 5 mil (my guess) and establish itself as the 2nd MMO to have "real" success.
10-20. :P