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I have a huge what IF..

Random_mageRandom_mage Member UncommonPosts: 1,093

What if DF was released RIGHT NOW, TODAY. (Won't happen.. the devs are probably at the pub having a drink on their way home..)

 

IF the game was TERRIBLE.. How long would it last before it dried up?

and

IF the game was AMAZING, do you think it would pull in subscriptions from the other big games?

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Comments

  • Biohazard931Biohazard931 Member UncommonPosts: 196

    If your talking about how long it would last to dry up on a long term, I'd say about a couple of weeks to 3-6 months. I mean it takes people time to get into the game and get ready. New people would be coming in all the time. It would have player's who find the game fun and stick to it. You always have some players in any old dried up game.

  • Random_mageRandom_mage Member UncommonPosts: 1,093
    Originally posted by KalTheo


    { Mod Delete }

    To answer..

    I agree with the above poster.

    Games like Vanguard, which in all aspects, failed still have quite a few players (enough to warrant keeping the game around) I'm unsure if planet side is doing as well (both are ran by SOE now..) AC still has around 1500 subs or so.. and DAoC has 20k..   So, yeah.. even if it doesn't do well.. they'll end up having to kick the fans off of the servers.

    And if the game does well, I can see it building enough hype to pull subs from games like WoW, AoC, WAR and the like, at least until it hits an asian release.. than it could possibly pull subs from FF and Lineage 2..

    { Mod Edit }

    Currently playing Real Life..

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  • SignusMSignusM Member Posts: 2,225

     This doesn't seem like a troll post to me...

  • TeganxTeganx Member Posts: 401
    Originally posted by SignusM


     This doesn't seem like a troll post to me...

     

    Same.

    I think if it released today and wasn't good it would end up like Vanguard.

    If it released and was good it will probably end up like eq2.

    If it releases in a few months following some much needed press and advertising it could end up like WAR.

     

    I am referring to the population size...all 3 sound like good enough options to me : ) I'd probably still play this game with Ryzom subs...

    playing: darkfall
    waiting: earthrise

  • Random_mageRandom_mage Member UncommonPosts: 1,093
    Originally posted by Teganx

    Originally posted by SignusM


     This doesn't seem like a troll post to me...

     

    Same.

    I think if it released today and wasn't good it would end up like Vanguard.

    If it released and was good it will probably end up like eq2.

    If it releases in a few months following some much needed press and advertising it could end up like WAR.

     

    ....all 3 sound like good enough options to me : )



     

    Hahaha.. all three sound terrible..

    I've played all 3, and the only one I played for more than a month was VG.

    EQ2 felt sort of "blah".. I didn't like the repeditive spell system, although I did like learning them automatically with the ability to buy "superior spells" later on.

    Oh.. God.. and like WAR?? Please.. NO..  The following of the game declined almost as bad as AoC...

    But, of all 3 choices, I would be happy with a VG like following.  Close group of players that know each other and like the game they are playing.  Doesn't sound so bad..

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  • KfuchsKfuchs Member Posts: 6

    If it is released now and everything they promised is true then they will defintly pull subs from other games. Specaily any old UO player whos playing something else now will switch. I have not met a single UO player not waiting for this game.

  • TheHowellerTheHoweller Member Posts: 407
    Originally posted by Random_mage

    Originally posted by Teganx
    Same.
    I think if it released today and wasn't good it would end up like Vanguard.
    If it released and was good it will probably end up like eq2.
    If it releases in a few months following some much needed press and advertising it could end up like WAR.
     
    ....all 3 sound like good enough options to me : )



     

    Hahaha.. all three sound terrible..

    I've played all 3, and the only one I played for more than a month was VG.

    EQ2 felt sort of "blah".. I didn't like the repeditive spell system, although I did like learning them automatically with the ability to buy "superior spells" later on.

    Oh.. God.. and like WAR?? Please.. NO..  The following of the game declined almost as bad as AoC...

    But, of all 3 choices, I would be happy with a VG like following.  Close group of players that know each other and like the game they are playing.  Doesn't sound so bad..

    I think you missed his point, random.  I  believe what Teganx was hinting at, was that Darkfall wouldn't be like them...It would match their subscription sizes.

     

    However, I could be wrong

    -------------------------------
    It's honestly like everyone logs onto WoW, and games like WoW, just to masturbate. Everyone plays by themselves, and when they don't, they get what they want and get off.
    -------------------------------
    Originally posted by atziluth...
    Ah yes when the unreasonable are faced with reason they must resort to personal attacks...When you are ready to move up from the kids table you can talk with the grown ups.

  • TeganxTeganx Member Posts: 401
    Originally posted by TheHoweller

    Originally posted by Random_mage

    Originally posted by Teganx
    Same.
    I think if it released today and wasn't good it would end up like Vanguard.
    If it released and was good it will probably end up like eq2.
    If it releases in a few months following some much needed press and advertising it could end up like WAR.
     
    ....all 3 sound like good enough options to me : )



     

    Hahaha.. all three sound terrible..

    I've played all 3, and the only one I played for more than a month was VG.

    EQ2 felt sort of "blah".. I didn't like the repeditive spell system, although I did like learning them automatically with the ability to buy "superior spells" later on.

    Oh.. God.. and like WAR?? Please.. NO..  The following of the game declined almost as bad as AoC...

    But, of all 3 choices, I would be happy with a VG like following.  Close group of players that know each other and like the game they are playing.  Doesn't sound so bad..

    I think you missed his point, random.  I  believe what Teganx was hinting at, was that Darkfall wouldn't be like them...It would match their subscription sizes.

     

    However, I could be wrong

     

    Yup thats exactly what I meant! Sorry, Ill edit to make it more clear.

    playing: darkfall
    waiting: earthrise

  • Superman0XSuperman0X Member RarePosts: 2,292

    This is a simple Best Case/Worst Case scenario, based on what we DO know.

    Adventurine is a small developer. They have gone with a first time publisher for games. They have a very limited exposure, but a dedicated fan base.

     

    1. If the game were to have a terrible launch, it would most likely last 3 months (one quarter) before the developer and publisher had a 'settling' and the game became financially problematic. It would take at least another quarter of foot dragging before it were killed.

    2. If the game were to have a great launch, it would most likely take a month or two (Jan/Feb) before it started drawing players from other games. It would not be a 'major' game until next summer, when its base was built from its good reputation.

    So, good or bad, it will take about 3 months to find out where its destiny lies, and about another three to start materializing it.

  • HazmalHazmal Member CommonPosts: 1,013

    The black marker of the Thought Police has cleansed the thread!

    If it were amazing it would pull trials, once people realize just how harsh and rude people will be in a FFA pvp game many will decide it isn't for them.  IMO.

    If it were terrible they would scramble to fix it and it would have to make due with a small community.  Much like Vanguard I would say, good game bad launch and still feeling the effects.

    ------------------
    Originally posted by javac

    well i'm 35 and have a PhD in science, and then 10 years experience in bioinformatics... you?
    http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/218865/page/8

  • TheHowellerTheHoweller Member Posts: 407
    Originally posted by Superman0X


    This is a simple Best Case/Worst Case scenario, based on what we DO know.
    Adventurine is a small developer. They have gone with a first time publisher for games. They have a very limited exposure, but a dedicated fan base.
     
    1. If the game were to have a terrible launch, it would most likely last 3 months (one quarter) before the developer and publisher had a 'settling' and the game became financially problematic. It would take at least another quarter of foot dragging before it were killed.
    2. If the game were to have a great launch, it would most likely take a month or two (Jan/Feb) before it started drawing players from other games. It would not be a 'major' game until next summer, when its base was built from its good reputation.
    So, good or bad, it will take about 3 months to find out where its destiny lies, and about another three to start materializing it.



    Yeah, those 3 months will be a blast.  Afterwards it will be a massacre......for the newbies...

    -------------------------------
    It's honestly like everyone logs onto WoW, and games like WoW, just to masturbate. Everyone plays by themselves, and when they don't, they get what they want and get off.
    -------------------------------
    Originally posted by atziluth...
    Ah yes when the unreasonable are faced with reason they must resort to personal attacks...When you are ready to move up from the kids table you can talk with the grown ups.

  • Random_mageRandom_mage Member UncommonPosts: 1,093

    Yeah.. I guess I looked at in relation to the games.. and how good they actually are.

    Although, I believe WAR shouldn't  be the best for "successful" I think an EVE would be a good spot to start.. as the FFA pvp MMO will never be as successful as a MMO with that must exposure.

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  • berniebearberniebear Member Posts: 228

    Im gonna be honest I dont think DF is going to do OMGZ great subscription wise. Carebears are the main video game buying demographic these days and DF isnt a carebear game its too niche. But if it can pull in a few hundred thousand id be happy

  • xaldraxiusxaldraxius Member Posts: 1,249


    Originally posted by berniebear
    Im gonna be honest I dont think DF is going to do OMGZ great subscription wise. Carebears are the main video game buying demographic these days and DF isnt a carebear game its too niche. But if it can pull in a few hundred thousand id be happy


    Somebody missed his bus stop and ended up in 'fantasy-land'.

    A few hundred thousand would be a major success for this game. Far beyond what it has the potential for. One hundred thousand is a better estimate, and that is if it succeeds in all of the features it promises. If it doesn't? 25k max.

    My personal estimate is between 50 and 60k. That's not so bad for a niche game. PvP centric games tend to kill off their own populations, literally and figuratively.

  • berniebearberniebear Member Posts: 228
    Originally posted by xaldraxius


     

    Originally posted by berniebear

    Im gonna be honest I dont think DF is going to do OMGZ great subscription wise. Carebears are the main video game buying demographic these days and DF isnt a carebear game its too niche. But if it can pull in a few hundred thousand id be happy

     



    Somebody missed his bus stop and ended up in 'fantasy-land'.

    A few hundred thousand would be a major success for this game. Far beyond what it has the potential for. One hundred thousand is a better estimate, and that is if it succeeds in all of the features it promises. If it doesn't? 25k max.

    My personal estimate is between 50 and 60k. That's not so bad for a niche game. PvP centric games tend to kill off their own populations, literally and figuratively.



     

    Yes... and that somebody is you.

    Ever heard of Eve Online??? Nuff said

  • xaldraxiusxaldraxius Member Posts: 1,249


    Originally posted by berniebear
    Originally posted by xaldraxius  

    Originally posted by berniebear
    Im gonna be honest I dont think DF is going to do OMGZ great subscription wise. Carebears are the main video game buying demographic these days and DF isnt a carebear game its too niche. But if it can pull in a few hundred thousand id be happy
     

    Somebody missed his bus stop and ended up in 'fantasy-land'.
    A few hundred thousand would be a major success for this game. Far beyond what it has the potential for. One hundred thousand is a better estimate, and that is if it succeeds in all of the features it promises. If it doesn't? 25k max.
    My personal estimate is between 50 and 60k. That's not so bad for a niche game. PvP centric games tend to kill off their own populations, literally and figuratively.


     
    Yes... and that somebody is you.
    Ever heard of Eve Online??? Nuff said


    Eve has been around for quite a while, and has about 200k subs. At least that's what I hear. I think it's less than that, but lord knows I'm a pessimist.

    I was just kidding about the fantasy land bit, I shouldn't have started out with a jibe like that and I'm sorry. :)

  • berniebearberniebear Member Posts: 228
    Originally posted by xaldraxius


     

    Originally posted by berniebear


    Originally posted by xaldraxius
     
     

     



    Originally posted by berniebear

    Im gonna be honest I dont think DF is going to do OMGZ great subscription wise. Carebears are the main video game buying demographic these days and DF isnt a carebear game its too niche. But if it can pull in a few hundred thousand id be happy


     

     

    Somebody missed his bus stop and ended up in 'fantasy-land'.

    A few hundred thousand would be a major success for this game. Far beyond what it has the potential for. One hundred thousand is a better estimate, and that is if it succeeds in all of the features it promises. If it doesn't? 25k max.

    My personal estimate is between 50 and 60k. That's not so bad for a niche game. PvP centric games tend to kill off their own populations, literally and figuratively.



     

     

    Yes... and that somebody is you.

    Ever heard of Eve Online??? Nuff said


     

    Eve has been around for quite a while, and has about 200k subs. At least that's what I hear. I think it's less than that, but lord knows I'm a pessimist.

    I was just kidding about the fantasy land bit, I shouldn't have started out with a jibe like that and I'm sorry. :)

     



     

    250k last I checked

    and a very mature apology

    *Crosses xaldraxius off kill-list*

  • GolominGolomin Member Posts: 141

    Actually, look up Irth Online, that is the best it will get.

  • kuntakintaykuntakintay Member Posts: 44

    yes its definitely going to steal some people from other games.. and obviously the better it is the more will switch.. i know that there are more than a few people playing WoW that would love to have a full loot pvp experience

  • berniebearberniebear Member Posts: 228
    Originally posted by kuntakintay


    yes its definitely going to steal some people from other games.. and obviously the better it is the more will switch.. i know that there are more than a few people playing WoW that would love to have a full loot pvp experience



     

    its not full loot u cant loot startign weapons lol

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