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A niche game or huge mmo-success?

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  • safwdsafwd Member Posts: 879
    Originally posted by ethion


    If the game works as advertised I think it will be a small niche.  I doubt it will stabilize at more then 50k.  Open PvP games like this just don't succeed, they pull in a certain hard core pvp crowd but anyone new coming in gets ganked and quickly leaves.  So it will get a wave or people then just decline into obscurity or to the point where there are not enough people to gank newbies giving the game some level of churn to keep it alive.
    However, I am gonna guess based on the specs of this game and the size of the company that it will release with missing features and/or many broken features.  This combined with open pvp and no doubt exploitable bugs will flame this game out before it gets off the ground.
    Anyway I'm thinking horizons meets shadowbane :P  haha that was pretty harsh.  Anyway it won't be long now just a few more weeks till it is released.  Maybe I'll be horribly wrong.



     

    UO, AC and Shadowbane all had more then 50K so i have to think it will be more then that. But yes, we shall see.

  • SilkskinSilkskin Member Posts: 41

    WoW appeals to a different type of gamer. Casuals, and people who are new to the MMO world.

    WoW , or games like it will always be popular because it appeals to people who generally don't play games, but it gives them a sense of achievment and a time sink.

    Darkfall, on the other hand appeals to the more veterned mmo gamer, and those interested in pvp. I can see alot of people who are playing WoW waiting for something different, and less carebear friendly switching over to darkfall if it's done right. Aswell as many people not playing any mmo's because there are few left which appeal to them, picking up darkfall. there is enough real gamers out there to make Darkfall popular, just it wont hurt WoWs popularity all that much.

  • JackdogJackdog Member UncommonPosts: 6,321
    Originally posted by berniebear


    Itll be niche.... most mmo gamers are carebears not elite

     

     

    Heh heh  like I said everyone on pre release forums sees themself as the ganker not the guy taking a dirt nap and hoping he has a spare set of armor stil in the bank. You will see how, bet you will be taking more than one dirt nap mr leet. Better hope they have a good banking system.

     

    I miss DAoC

  • rageagainstrageagainst Member Posts: 618
    Originally posted by ethion


    If the game works as advertised I think it will be a small niche.  I doubt it will stabilize at more then 50k.  Open PvP games like this just don't succeed, they pull in a certain hard core pvp crowd but anyone new coming in gets ganked and quickly leaves.  So it will get a wave or people then just decline into obscurity or to the point where there are not enough people to gank newbies giving the game some level of churn to keep it alive.
    However, I am gonna guess based on the specs of this game and the size of the company that it will release with missing features and/or many broken features.  This combined with open pvp and no doubt exploitable bugs will flame this game out before it gets off the ground.
    Anyway I'm thinking horizons meets shadowbane :P  haha that was pretty harsh.  Anyway it won't be long now just a few more weeks till it is released.  Maybe I'll be horribly wrong.



     

    by your logic no one would play counterstrike b/c new players would start to leave b/c its so hard to compete (though this does happen, most of the time the difficulty hardens the newbs to get better)... and newbs have the ability to stand up to seasoned vets in this game. Sure the people who suck and whine will leave in heartbeat, but to those that realize that sucess in this game has to do with how well you play and not how long you play,  will stay. And btw, the game wouldn't "decline" b/c of lack of newcomers, if you've ever pvped before, you would know pvp means more than just pking people... if the game delivers, that big wave of people aren't going anywhere.

    and you kindly forget about the fps gamers and the rts gamers who would love to play an mmo geared towards them. This game has next gen pve too, but I'm sure the pve'rs will be scared off by the pvp. Crafters should love DF, they are the fundamentals of the economy in Agon.

    BUT all this is assuming they have a decent launch, you're figueres are appropriate if they release a pile of sh!t, but don't make sense otherwise.

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  • ArckenArcken Member Posts: 2,431
    Originally posted by Aragon100


    On a good release and with all features in it will most definetly be a huge MMO-success.
    I can see +500K subs 3-4 month after release and a million in a year.

    Oh my lord, you havent even played the game first hand, and you are already projecting this?

     

    Thats insane, insane in the membrane. Got no brain, goin insane.

  • Random_mageRandom_mage Member UncommonPosts: 1,093
    Originally posted by rageagainst

    Originally posted by Random_mage


    We have yet to see..
    I don't think we are looking at anything over 100k subs..
    ffa pvp doesn't appeal to everyone
    Boxes sell
    The market is saturated with medievil MMORPGs.

    lol great logic there, there's already 230k FORUM members and you're saying they will have less than 100k SUBS...

    The market IS saturated with medievel mmos but its also, more importantly, saturated with "single player online" "mmos" and thus I soundly conclude, unless Aventurine pulled the equivalent of WoW 2, they would have made less money making another singleplayer-online game than to break the mold.

    FFA pvp doesn't appeal to everyone sure, but does anything? Its really controvertial and wanted in this community, where no game with ffa pvp is even listed in the list of games to the left. This will net the angry Wowers, the AoCers, the angry WARers, all the UOers, and basically all who love mmo pvp and are looking for a new game. But most importantly, it will net people who normally don't play mmos. I'm talking about the fps players and the rts players.

    this is an untapped market, and could be a goldmine if a solid game ever releases based on sandbox ffa skill based pvp.



     

    .. Yep.. The '230k" is actually 219k.  That doesn't mean jack, though.  How many people registered just for the beta? How many actively post on the forums?  Okay.. so I'll throw that argument out.

    The only "single player MMO" is WoW.  You can solo in every OTHER game because.. get this.. That's WHAT SELLS!! who knew??  How it net people who don't normally play games?? They aren't advertising it.. those people WILL NOT SEE IT!!   That arguments now thrown out as trash.

    Oh.. have you heard of a game.. aimed PRIMARILY at the FPS crowd? It was called planet side.  And in planet side.. you had, get this.. an actual GUN.. I know it may be hard to believe.. but the S in FPS stands for SHOOTER.  Kind of hard to shoot with a sword or fireball.. eh?

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  • KshnikKshnik Member Posts: 57

    Darkfall will be a niche game.   It will never get in the millions for subscribers.   

    Oh, Fireball is viewed as shooting.   So is an arrow.

  • GrayGhost79GrayGhost79 Member UncommonPosts: 4,775
    Originally posted by Kshnik


    Darkfall will be a niche game.   It will never get in the millions for subscribers.   
    Oh, Fireball is viewed as shooting.   So is an arrow.

     

    FPS - has also been used as First Person Sword/sworder lol. 

  • tazarconantazarconan Member Posts: 1,013
    Originally posted by Loke666


    I don't see this as something that can compete with wow. It would be the same as if a band like type o negative would beat Madonna on the top list, ain't gonna hapen.
    The reason to why Wow is so big is that the mainstream gamer want a game like Wow. There are surely place for smaller games too but this game will never get a million players. If I would guess, I would say around 300K, which is good enough to make a steady profit.
    The gamers I see going for it all the really old timers from UO, EQ and DAoC. I don't really think it will make an impact on newer games like AoC and WAR.
    But we need niche games, Wow is kinda like listen to the radio, once in a while you hear a song you like but mostly it is the regular mainstream junk. Wow tries to please everyone and I understand why Blizzard makes it like that, money doesn't smell.
    A niche game can be more directly to a certain crowd, hopefully we see more of those around.
    So good luck to DF and all the other niche games out there, just don't expect any of them to compete with Wow.

    Wow killer? As in number os subs? no. Why? Cause the big masses of players can t dare to risk and loose something.. they want risk free pvp . The masses  of  12-17 y old players will stick in wow and alike .

    And that is the majority .

     

    Wow killer for my taste? Yes if it delivers whatit promishes yes it will be. And tbh i wouldnt like to see happy ex-gnomes from wow to jump around happily to spoil an excelent rp-pvp fantasy enviroment.

    All i d care is DF to get a good number of subs so they will make a profit in rder to further improve and invest in the game and 10+ thousands players per server..

  • DarthRaidenDarthRaiden Member UncommonPosts: 4,333
    Originally posted by Random_mage



    Oh.. have you heard of a game.. aimed PRIMARILY at the FPS crowd? It was called planet side.  And in planet side.. you had, get this.. an actual GUN.. I know it may be hard to believe.. but the S in FPS stands for SHOOTER.  Kind of hard to shoot with a sword or fireball.. eh?

     

    Its more fun using a mellee weapon even if it has guns..

    example ..chainsaw in Doom

    What counts primary is the first person view..

    and actually you shoot an arrow or a fireball..

     

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  • HazmalHazmal Member CommonPosts: 1,013
    Originally posted by Random_mage


    Oh.. have you heard of a game.. aimed PRIMARILY at the FPS crowd? It was called planet side.  And in planet side.. you had, get this.. an actual GUN.. I know it may be hard to believe.. but the S in FPS stands for SHOOTER.  Kind of hard to shoot with a sword or fireball.. eh?



     

    Clear out!  We can all go home, there has finally been a clear cut definition of what FPS stands for.  All these years of thinking it meant First Person Sausage.   

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  • MythosaeonMythosaeon Member UncommonPosts: 68

    Darkfall if succesful will have subscriptions in the range of Shadowbane and Pirates of the Burning Sea. If it falls on its face it will be the next Dark and Light or Face of Mankind.

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  • DeadDingoDeadDingo Member Posts: 193

    The Oracle says:

    Upon release, there shall be much rejoicing.  Europeans will buy this game in 180,000 units.  Americans will buy this game in 45k units.

    The first month will be riddled with massive bugs, server crashes, failed expectations, dashed dreams and pwnage.

    Gankage will be rampant and half will leave after the first month who do not enjoy being ganked all the time.

    Crafters don't craft because they don't like being ganked all the time leaving the economy in turmoil and nobody crafting creating rampant inflation for the rare crafter's products who stayed.

    Now that all the fodder has been eliminated by the 'elite', the 'elite' sit around doing nothing but complaining how nobody plays this game... all the while refusing to fight the person right next to them because they *gasp* might lose.

    Servers are barren from month 2-3

    Servers are empty from month 3-6.

    The game closes in 11 months.

    The Oracle has spoken

  • rvjones10rvjones10 Member UncommonPosts: 100
    Originally posted by DeadDingo


    The Oracle says:
    Upon release, there shall be much rejoicing.  Europeans will buy this game in 180,000 units.  Americans will buy this game in 45k units.
    The first month will be riddled with massive bugs, server crashes, failed expectations, dashed dreams and .
    Gankage will be rampant and half will leave after the first month who do not enjoy being ganked all the time.
    Crafters don't craft because they don't like being ganked all the time leaving the economy in turmoil and nobody crafting creating rampant inflation for the rare crafter's products who stayed.
    Now that all the fodder has been eliminated by the 'elite', the 'elite' sit around doing nothing but complaining how nobody plays this game... all the while refusing to fight the person right next to them because they *gasp* might lose.
    Servers are empty from month 3-6.
    The game closes in 11 months.
    The Oracle has spoken



     

    is oracle another name for troll?

  • banthisbanthis Member Posts: 1,891
    Originally posted by berniebear

    Originally posted by Kyleran

    Originally posted by berniebear

    Originally posted by Jackdog

    Originally posted by Loke666



    A niche game can be more directly to a certain crowd, hopefully we see more of those around.
    So good luck to DF and all the other niche games out there, just don't expect any of them to compete with Wow.

     

    Very true. I doubt if it will break 25 to  30 K worlwide, FFA PvP sounds better on paper than it is in reality just look at how the AoC players complained about ganking. On forums before release everyone percieves themselves as the ganker not the gankee  Still there is a group that really does enjoy that game style. I more than likely will give it a try just for old times sake if it releases in US.  I second the good luck wishes. Indy games can be very successful and profitable without having a huge number of subs.

    Itll be niche.... most mmo gamers are carebears not pvp'ers

     

     

    Fixed that for you. 

    It will be niche though, because PVE games (and no risk pvp)  are preferred by the masses.

    Most mmo gamers are carebears not elite. There changed back since I ment what I said. no risk pvp is still infact pvp so just because your a carebear doesnt mean your not into pvp.... just means your into carebear pvp which is still pvp.

     

     



     

    Elitism is simply a state of epeen mind...sorry your only Elite if you know how to actually Create an MMO yourself.   The MMO market is more Casual than hardcore and always has been.  Darkfall will be most definitly niche because its rule set has always always always been extremely Niche.  It was niche when UO came out and its niche now.  Is this a bad thing? Hell no.  Niche means its a game more catered and tight nit then the spread thin for the masses.  

    I'll stick with the more casual market in my old age I got tired of dealing with bratty little kids or immature adults having fun at my expense.  Honestly who wants to pay for that other than sadomasocistic folks.  No rule set for FFA PvP has EVER detered people from being asshats ...I expect  Eve's Most popular to hate group of torture artists will love Darkfall with a passion.

    btw If Darkfall didnt' have FFA PvP I'd probably be interested in it...I do enjoy a good skill system / sandbox game..i just dislike FFA PvP. 

  • Random_mageRandom_mage Member UncommonPosts: 1,093
    Originally posted by Hazmal

    Originally posted by Random_mage


    Oh.. have you heard of a game.. aimed PRIMARILY at the FPS crowd? It was called planet side.  And in planet side.. you had, get this.. an actual GUN.. I know it may be hard to believe.. but the S in FPS stands for SHOOTER.  Kind of hard to shoot with a sword or fireball.. eh?



     

    Clear out!  We can all go home, there has finally been a clear cut definition of what FPS stands for.  All these years of thinking it meant First Person Sausage.   



     

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  • EvasiaEvasia Member Posts: 2,827

    Always intended to be a hardcore sandbox free for all pvp game so devs knew from beginning it would be for nich hardcore market.

    But i think it have potention to have around 100k players.

    It was never been developed to be a wow killer hehe.

     

    Its just to hardcore and sandbox.

    Games played:AC1-Darktide'99-2000-AC2-Darktide/dawnsong2003-2005,Lineage2-2005-2006 and now Darkfall-2009.....
    In between WoW few months AoC few months and some f2p also all very short few weeks.

  • TheodgrimTheodgrim Member Posts: 535

    Give it typical niche-game subscription numbers and Darkfall will be a success.  That is all that anyone is asking for, really.  If it happens to go above 200K subs, that is gravy.  It has no chance of killing WoW.

  • KshnikKshnik Member Posts: 57
    Originally posted by Theodgrim


    Give it typical niche-game subscription numbers and Darkfall will be a success.  That is all that anyone is asking for, really.  If it happens to go above 200K subs, that is gravy.  It has no chance of killing WoW.



     

    QFT

  • Deathstrike2Deathstrike2 Member UncommonPosts: 1,777

    Definitely Niche

  • fagercraftfagercraft Member Posts: 170
    Originally posted by banthis

    Originally posted by berniebear

    Originally posted by Kyleran

    Originally posted by berniebear

    Originally posted by Jackdog

    Originally posted by Loke666



    A niche game can be more directly to a certain crowd, hopefully we see more of those around.
    So good luck to DF and all the other niche games out there, just don't expect any of them to compete with Wow.

     

    Very true. I doubt if it will break 25 to  30 K worlwide, FFA PvP sounds better on paper than it is in reality just look at how the AoC players complained about ganking. On forums before release everyone percieves themselves as the ganker not the gankee  Still there is a group that really does enjoy that game style. I more than likely will give it a try just for old times sake if it releases in US.  I second the good luck wishes. Indy games can be very successful and profitable without having a huge number of subs.

    Itll be niche.... most mmo gamers are carebears not pvp'ers

     

     

    Fixed that for you. 

    It will be niche though, because PVE games (and no risk pvp)  are preferred by the masses.

    Most mmo gamers are carebears not elite. There changed back since I ment what I said. no risk pvp is still infact pvp so just because your a carebear doesnt mean your not into pvp.... just means your into carebear pvp which is still pvp.

     

     



     

    Elitism is simply a state of epeen mind...sorry your only Elite if you know how to actually Create an MMO yourself.   The MMO market is more Casual than hardcore and always has been.  Darkfall will be most definitly niche because its rule set has always always always been extremely Niche.  It was niche when UO came out and its niche now.  Is this a bad thing? Hell no.  Niche means its a game more catered and tight nit then the spread thin for the masses.  

    I'll stick with the more casual market in my old age I got tired of dealing with bratty little kids or immature adults having fun at my expense.  Honestly who wants to pay for that other than sadomasocistic folks.  No rule set for FFA PvP has EVER detered people from being asshats ...I expect  Eve's Most popular to hate group of torture artists will love Darkfall with a passion.

    btw If Darkfall didnt' have FFA PvP I'd probably be interested in it...I do enjoy a good skill system / sandbox game..i just dislike FFA PvP. 

     

    Im abit sceptic on FFA also, i loved EvE and it is FFA - but with rules. If DF has it in EvEs league of FFA perhaps abit harder (Empire is way to good for its risk imo) id be very happy on that part.

    I would also be very glad if they used Lineage2 Flaggingsystem - prevented pretty much anyone except the rich ebayers to go lowbie gank all day for no reason. That system was pretty awesome really, just got abit week as of late with to hard to loose items and so on, then again getting items in that game is really hard too.

     

    on the mature topic, IMO the harder the game gets, the more mature it is in % to its population(If theres alot of cheating making a hard game easy - youll get a backlash like in Lineage2 wich in these days is worse then WoW-Vanilla-times, when it was once so awesome)

    An FFA system with good flagingsystem can be gankheaven and gankhell, AoC had a crappy flaggingsystem and was gankheaven, Lineage2 had a awesome flagging system and was gankinghell.

    P.S - ppl might argue that Lineage2 and AoC where not true FFA. Im judging FFA as in i can kill anyone on the server if i want to in most if not all areas of the game - just for preference.

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  • bongloadsbongloads Member UncommonPosts: 381

     Look around in your daily life.  Look around at the people on this site.   Most people in the world are retarded.  For this simple fact, WOW is a success.   Now, a few of these mongo's will gradually graduate past the learning curve WOW provides, and then will be bored searching for something that offers challenge and options again.  Enter Darkfall for these people.

    Darkfall won't take WoW's client base because they're too retarded to see what's outside their little special ed. world.

     

    P.S.  Just wanted to reiteratethat his site's full of stupid people proving my point daily.  What a piece of shit community.

  • tazarconantazarconan Member Posts: 1,013
    Originally posted by DeadDingo


    The Oracle says:
    Upon release, there shall be much rejoicing.  Europeans will buy this game in 180,000 units.  Americans will buy this game in 45k units.
    The first month will be riddled with massive bugs, server crashes, failed expectations, dashed dreams and pwnage.
    Gankage will be rampant and half will leave after the first month who do not enjoy being ganked all the time.
    Crafters don't craft because they don't like being ganked all the time leaving the economy in turmoil and nobody crafting creating rampant inflation for the rare crafter's products who stayed.
    Now that all the fodder has been eliminated by the 'elite', the 'elite' sit around doing nothing but complaining how nobody plays this game... all the while refusing to fight the person right next to them because they *gasp* might lose.
    Servers are barren from month 2-3
    Servers are empty from month 3-6.
    The game closes in 11 months.
    The Oracle has spoken

    Quite lol for an oracle's sayings but i will focus most in this:

    Gankage will be rampant and half will leave after the first month who do not enjoy being ganked all the time.

    The major amount ( if not almost all 180 k  players that will join DF are hardcore pvpiers so for them a term like gangage does not exist .. and they certainly are not bothered to die some times from other players till they are fully aware they world is dangerous my crappy FALSE oracle wow  fanboy friend.

    And tbh ganging term exists ONLY in games like wow war and all crapy AUTO-mated combat systems where kiling ppl is easy by just clickie clikie ... In DF my trolish friend you need skills and the best warriors will survive most of the times ...

    Quality vs quantity  =]

     

  • KroganKrogan Member UncommonPosts: 304


    Originally posted by ethion
    If the game works as advertised I think it will be a small niche.  I doubt it will stabilize at more then 50k.  Open PvP games like this just don't succeed, they pull in a certain hard core pvp crowd but anyone new coming in gets ganked and quickly leaves.  So it will get a wave or people then just decline into obscurity or to the point where there are not enough people to gank newbies giving the game some level of churn to keep it alive.
    However, I am gonna guess based on the specs of this game and the size of the company that it will release with missing features and/or many broken features.  This combined with open pvp and no doubt exploitable bugs will flame this game out before it gets off the ground.
    Anyway I'm thinking horizons meets shadowbane :P  haha that was pretty harsh.  Anyway it won't be long now just a few more weeks till it is released.  Maybe I'll be horribly wrong.

    You have done what most of the mmo industry has done and looked at what you thought were the most obvious thing and not actually looked at the facts. What I would like from you Ethan is one example just 1 example of an open pvp mmo that has been very well executed and released as a finished game and still failed.

    There is only 1 such title that has ever been released and that game is called EvE and talk about a niche game as it also requires you to enjoy slow game play and sci fi. However still EvE is the second biggest mmo in the world with over 400k subs.

    That is the only open pvp game that you can point to as a well made open pvp game and so that should be the base for your estimations not Shadowbane that was 60% completed at launch or Dark & Light that was 30% complete at launch. And for gods sake do not bring up AoC when you talk about mmos.

  • TookyGTookyG Warhammer Online CorrespondentMember UncommonPosts: 1,115
    Originally posted by rageagainst


    lol great logic there, there's already 230k FORUM members and you're saying they will have less than 100k SUBS...

    There is no corollary between the number of subscribers and the number of community members.

    Until you cancel your subscription, you are only helping to continue the cycle of mediocrity.

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