I think there is gonna be a huge influx of players in the first month.
Then when these people find out what kind of game it is they are all gonna leave, which is going to make it look like it is a flop.
Most of the people that are waiting for this game are not ready for a full loot ffa pvp sandbox game. There will not be tons of PVE in this game. there are not going to be uber loot drops. most of the games content is going to made and controled by the players. And most of the players want there hands to be held, they don't know how to create the content they want using the tools they are given.
Judging by their support and delays for the game before it is even out I doubt the game is going to do to well when it does eventually release (since I won't be surprised if they delay again).
I will write this now and put my neck on the line (since so many "nay-sayers" seem to not want to do it themselves) and state that I think it will be an immense success.
NOT an immense success in terms of subscriber numbers, but an immense success in the sense that it will deliver what so many of us have been craving for so long.
The thing is, of the 11 million WoW subscribers, I'd say less then 300K (if even that) could handle the dangers and harshness of the Darkfall world. This means that Darkfall WILL be success, but the subscriber base will never reach those numbers, which again, is NOT a bad thing at all.
I think it will be a stable client at launch, containing most if not all of the features, and that it has the potential to reach over a million subscribers within the first year.
Originally posted by jonyak Most of the people that are waiting for this game are not ready for a full loot ffa pvp sandbox game. There will not be tons of PVE in this game. there are not going to be uber loot drops. most of the games content is going to made and controled by the players. And most of the players want there hands to be held, they don't know how to create the content they want using the tools they are given.
I dont think the game will be as successful as ppl think it will be for many reasons. I hope they deliver on everything they say or we'll see the negative here on these forums shortly.
Played : WOW, LOTRO, COH/COV, EQ2, SWG, and WAR. Playing EVE Online and AOC. Wtg for SW:TOR and WOD
I dont think the game will be as successful as ppl think it will be for many reasons. I hope they deliver on everything they say or we'll see the negative here on these forums shortly.
These forumns are irrelevant. I will suggest it will be very successfull, and based on current feedback i can say that with confidence.
________________________________________________________ Sorcery must persist, the future is the Citadel
We probably need to differentiate between game play and financial return:
Game play - if it delivers, it'll be a success, but to a relatively small market segment
Financial - they've spent eight years, have 30 employees and have acquired over 60 million USD in Bonds (just since mid 2007 - what about all the financing priort to that?) to make a game for a niche market. Will they ever see a positve return on all that investment? They're going to need a lot of software license sales and subscription revenue, especially considering they'll continue to have ongoing development, support and infrastructure costs. Let's say they sell 100kcopies @ $50/each. That's only 5 million USD in software license sales. Add in a $15/month fee times 100kusers over 5 years and you have 90 million USD, which is ok, but not great. If they are going to be financially viable, they need to have a larger user base. It would be fantastic if they did, but considering Aventurine seems really surprised about 200k beta applicants, I'm not sure they'll hit that number and retain it consistently. If they do, then congrats to them!
I think there is gonna be a huge influx of players in the first month.
Then when these people find out what kind of game it is they are all gonna leave, which is going to make it look like it is a flop.
Most of the people that are waiting for this game are not ready for a full loot ffa pvp sandbox game. There will not be tons of PVE in this game. there are not going to be uber loot drops. most of the games content is going to made and controled by the players. And most of the players want there hands to be held, they don't know how to create the content they want using the tools they are given.
I agree with this. There is a huge difference between a FFA pvp full loot game and themeparks. I would venture to guess at least 50% of the people that buy this game will quit within a few months. Many underestimate how harsh it can be. I still think it will be a success, in that it will be able to stay afloat and achieve what very few games do, a real game based on the developer's vision.
Your mind is like a parachute, it's only useful when it's open. Don't forget, you can use the block function on trolls.
Assuming it comes out and the game is what most hope it'll be then it'll be near the top for FFA style games.
Let's face it, the majority of MMO players will not play it based on extreme game mechanics. I.e., high risk, losing gear on person on death, complete FFA
I think there is gonna be a huge influx of players in the first month.
Then when these people find out what kind of game it is they are all gonna leave, which is going to make it look like it is a flop.
Most of the people that are waiting for this game are not ready for a full loot ffa pvp sandbox game. There will not be tons of PVE in this game. there are not going to be uber loot drops. most of the games content is going to made and controled by the players. And most of the players want there hands to be held, they don't know how to create the content they want using the tools they are given.
The funny thing is that I bet more fanbois will drop out then critics. There is a completely irrational expectation about this game. So many people will feel let down not from any real fault of DF itself, just from the delusions that have been built up over the years.
Having read both positive and concerning things (all unsubstantiated) I vote meh... That is how it will come across to most people. The style of the game will not lend itself well to P2P.
-Atziluth-
- Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.
I think there is gonna be a huge influx of players in the first month.
Then when these people find out what kind of game it is they are all gonna leave, which is going to make it look like it is a flop.
Most of the people that are waiting for this game are not ready for a full loot ffa pvp sandbox game. There will not be tons of PVE in this game. there are not going to be uber loot drops. most of the games content is going to made and controled by the players. And most of the players want there hands to be held, they don't know how to create the content they want using the tools they are given.
The funny thing is that I bet more fanbois will drop out then critics. There is a completely irrational expectation about this game. So many people will feel let down not from any real fault of DF itself, just from the delusions that have been built up over the years.
Having read both positive and concerning things (all unsubstantiated) I vote meh... That is how it will come across to most people. The style of the game will not lend itself well to P2P.
Many of the trolls admit they don't even care to try DF. So I imagine you are probably right, more fanbois will quit than "critics".
Your mind is like a parachute, it's only useful when it's open. Don't forget, you can use the block function on trolls.
I think there is gonna be a huge influx of players in the first month.
Then when these people find out what kind of game it is they are all gonna leave, which is going to make it look like it is a flop.
Most of the people that are waiting for this game are not ready for a full loot ffa pvp sandbox game. There will not be tons of PVE in this game. there are not going to be uber loot drops. most of the games content is going to made and controled by the players. And most of the players want there hands to be held, they don't know how to create the content they want using the tools they are given.
The funny thing is that I bet more fanbois will drop out then critics. There is a completely irrational expectation about this game. So many people will feel let down not from any real fault of DF itself, just from the delusions that have been built up over the years.
Having read both positive and concerning things (all unsubstantiated) I vote meh... That is how it will come across to most people. The style of the game will not lend itself well to P2P.
I totaly agree... this was the point I was trying to get across. So many people have very skewed ideas about what this game is going to be.
100k would be a succes, but with over 300k on the forums(forums usually indicate a lesser number than subscriptions) the game is set to be a dramaticly huge success.
Well, I'm really somewhere between "Meh" and "Failure" but I voted "Failure" because it will probably fail to deliver everything it promised at an acceptable level. Now, that level is different for everyone of course, so that's why it might be "Meh" - an average game for its niche, nothing more. All of this hype right now is just because the game is offering something different. Similar games that follow DF that are better made and have more communicative companies at the helm will easily beat it (judging by what we know about DF so far).
My main concern is how efficient Aventurine will be at rolling out patches/hotfixes and dealing with support. It's hard to imagine this small hush-hush company will suddenly explode with employees to meet the massive influx of players wanting to try this game out ASAP.
-------------------------------------- A human and an Elf get captured by Skaven. The rat-men are getting ready to shoot the first hostage with Dwarf-made guns when he yells, "Earthquake!" The naturally nervous Skaven run and hide from the imaginary threat. He escapes. The Skaven regroup and bring out the Elf. Being very smart, the Elf has figured out what to do. When the Skaven get ready to shoot, the Elf, in order to scare them, yells, "Fire!"
I only voted "meh" based on my own feelings about the game. Not what other people will think of it. *shrug*
What Happened With SWG Went Down YEARS AGO! Please Try To Stop Whining About It In Every Thread I Read. Mourn It, And Finally MOVE ON With Your Lives! Thanks A Heap.
100k would be a succes, but with over 300k on the forums(forums usually indicate a lesser number than subscriptions) the game is set to be a dramaticly huge success.
After release that might be true, but for a beta phase forum numbers far exceed subscription demand. Just look at WAR and AOC... both had 2 - 3 times the numbers we are talking about for DF and they might have 20% of those numbers now.
This is exactly what I was talking about with delusional expectations.
-Atziluth-
- Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.
Do I think it will dethrone WOW in total number of subs. No, of course, not, they'll be lucky to match EVE's numbers.
But do I think they can provide a game experience that will be very appealing to their target audience and make enough money to keep it going? Yeah, probably.
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
100k would be a succes, but with over 300k on the forums(forums usually indicate a lesser number than subscriptions) the game is set to be a dramaticly huge success.
After release that might be true, but for a beta phase forum numbers far exceed subscription demand. Just look at WAR and AOC... both had 2 - 3 times the numbers we are talking about for DF and they might have 20% of those numbers now.
This is exactly what I was talking about with delusional expectations.
Talking about forums number. Way more people bought AoC and WAR then signed up on the forums.
Would have to be some serious screw ups for this game not to be somewhat successful. If someone promises you a million dollars, are you going to be mad if they give you 100k? Well maybe they would have to deliver at least 50% of what is promised.
Absolutely everything depends on the state of both the game client and DF's servers at launch. If the game is unstable, has memory leaks, or otherwise presents serious performance issues for the majority of its playerbase (think Anarchy Online and Vanguard at launch), then people will leave in droves and DF will have a hard time recovering.
They've got a dedicated fanbase, but even the most dedicated fans will leave if they can't run the game, or if the client is too buggy and/or poorly coded.
I wish Aventurine luck. They're going to need it, especially if they intend to launch in just over a month.
100k would be a succes, but with over 300k on the forums(forums usually indicate a lesser number than subscriptions) the game is set to be a dramaticly huge success.
After release that might be true, but for a beta phase forum numbers far exceed subscription demand. Just look at WAR and AOC... both had 2 - 3 times the numbers we are talking about for DF and they might have 20% of those numbers now.
This is exactly what I was talking about with delusional expectations.
Talking about forums number. Way more people bought AoC and WAR then signed up on the forums.
Well first off WAR did not have forums. Lets stick with beta applicants since that is what we are really talking about here. (unless you think a peak of 3K translates to over 300K that are interested on the DF boards).
DF could sell 200 - 300 digital copies, but it is highly doubtful. WAR and AOC both his about the beta numbers in sold boxes, but subscriptions have since plummeted to about 25% of the box numbers. So it is doubful DF will sustain anything close to 300K subscribers. More then likely they will be in the 80 - 100K area.
-Atziluth-
- Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.
A success but only in terms relative to where Aventurine was about 4 to 6 months ago. Back when they only had ~50k forum accounts.
Which will literally SUCK for the company as it is Bad News Bears for the AAA developers when their servers swell in the first month or two, and then are ghost towns afterwards. How will Aventurine be able to handle such a massive in and then outflow of accounts?
Anyways, I imagine that 6 or so months down the line, they'll be chugging along with ~125k subscribers. That's if everything goes as well as it can. I see the events of paragraph 2 being an inevitability.
It IS interesting to note, that as atziluth said, for WAR and AoC- beta numbers were roughly equal to initial subscription numbers. Give or take 100,000.
Comments
Gradual success if Aventurine does deliver what is promised.
I think there is gonna be a huge influx of players in the first month.
Then when these people find out what kind of game it is they are all gonna leave, which is going to make it look like it is a flop.
Most of the people that are waiting for this game are not ready for a full loot ffa pvp sandbox game. There will not be tons of PVE in this game. there are not going to be uber loot drops. most of the games content is going to made and controled by the players. And most of the players want there hands to be held, they don't know how to create the content they want using the tools they are given.
Judging by their support and delays for the game before it is even out I doubt the game is going to do to well when it does eventually release (since I won't be surprised if they delay again).
I will write this now and put my neck on the line (since so many "nay-sayers" seem to not want to do it themselves) and state that I think it will be an immense success.
NOT an immense success in terms of subscriber numbers, but an immense success in the sense that it will deliver what so many of us have been craving for so long.
The thing is, of the 11 million WoW subscribers, I'd say less then 300K (if even that) could handle the dangers and harshness of the Darkfall world. This means that Darkfall WILL be success, but the subscriber base will never reach those numbers, which again, is NOT a bad thing at all.
I think it will be a stable client at launch, containing most if not all of the features, and that it has the potential to reach over a million subscribers within the first year.
Quoted for truth.
I dont think the game will be as successful as ppl think it will be for many reasons. I hope they deliver on everything they say or we'll see the negative here on these forums shortly.
Played : WOW, LOTRO, COH/COV, EQ2, SWG, and WAR.
Playing EVE Online and AOC.
Wtg for SW:TOR and WOD
These forumns are irrelevant. I will suggest it will be very successfull, and based on current feedback i can say that with confidence.
________________________________________________________
Sorcery must persist, the future is the Citadel
We probably need to differentiate between game play and financial return:
~Ripper
I agree with this. There is a huge difference between a FFA pvp full loot game and themeparks. I would venture to guess at least 50% of the people that buy this game will quit within a few months. Many underestimate how harsh it can be. I still think it will be a success, in that it will be able to stay afloat and achieve what very few games do, a real game based on the developer's vision.
Your mind is like a parachute, it's only useful when it's open.
Don't forget, you can use the block function on trolls.
Assuming it comes out and the game is what most hope it'll be then it'll be near the top for FFA style games.
Let's face it, the majority of MMO players will not play it based on extreme game mechanics. I.e., high risk, losing gear on person on death, complete FFA
The funny thing is that I bet more fanbois will drop out then critics. There is a completely irrational expectation about this game. So many people will feel let down not from any real fault of DF itself, just from the delusions that have been built up over the years.
Having read both positive and concerning things (all unsubstantiated) I vote meh... That is how it will come across to most people. The style of the game will not lend itself well to P2P.
-Atziluth-
- Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.
The funny thing is that I bet more fanbois will drop out then critics. There is a completely irrational expectation about this game. So many people will feel let down not from any real fault of DF itself, just from the delusions that have been built up over the years.
Having read both positive and concerning things (all unsubstantiated) I vote meh... That is how it will come across to most people. The style of the game will not lend itself well to P2P.
Many of the trolls admit they don't even care to try DF. So I imagine you are probably right, more fanbois will quit than "critics".
Your mind is like a parachute, it's only useful when it's open.
Don't forget, you can use the block function on trolls.
The funny thing is that I bet more fanbois will drop out then critics. There is a completely irrational expectation about this game. So many people will feel let down not from any real fault of DF itself, just from the delusions that have been built up over the years.
Having read both positive and concerning things (all unsubstantiated) I vote meh... That is how it will come across to most people. The style of the game will not lend itself well to P2P.
I totaly agree... this was the point I was trying to get across. So many people have very skewed ideas about what this game is going to be.
I dissaprove this game.
100k would be a succes, but with over 300k on the forums(forums usually indicate a lesser number than subscriptions) the game is set to be a dramaticly huge success.
Well, I'm really somewhere between "Meh" and "Failure" but I voted "Failure" because it will probably fail to deliver everything it promised at an acceptable level. Now, that level is different for everyone of course, so that's why it might be "Meh" - an average game for its niche, nothing more. All of this hype right now is just because the game is offering something different. Similar games that follow DF that are better made and have more communicative companies at the helm will easily beat it (judging by what we know about DF so far).
My main concern is how efficient Aventurine will be at rolling out patches/hotfixes and dealing with support. It's hard to imagine this small hush-hush company will suddenly explode with employees to meet the massive influx of players wanting to try this game out ASAP.
--------------------------------------
A human and an Elf get captured by Skaven. The rat-men are getting ready to shoot the first hostage with Dwarf-made guns when he yells, "Earthquake!" The naturally nervous Skaven run and hide from the imaginary threat. He escapes. The Skaven regroup and bring out the Elf. Being very smart, the Elf has figured out what to do. When the Skaven get ready to shoot, the Elf, in order to scare them, yells, "Fire!"
Order of the White Border.
I only voted "meh" based on my own feelings about the game. Not what other people will think of it. *shrug*
What Happened With SWG Went Down YEARS AGO! Please Try To Stop Whining About It In Every Thread I Read. Mourn It, And Finally MOVE ON With Your Lives! Thanks A Heap.
After release that might be true, but for a beta phase forum numbers far exceed subscription demand. Just look at WAR and AOC... both had 2 - 3 times the numbers we are talking about for DF and they might have 20% of those numbers now.
This is exactly what I was talking about with delusional expectations.
-Atziluth-
- Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.
Had to go with Meh.
All depends what you define as a success.
Do I think it will dethrone WOW in total number of subs. No, of course, not, they'll be lucky to match EVE's numbers.
But do I think they can provide a game experience that will be very appealing to their target audience and make enough money to keep it going? Yeah, probably.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
After release that might be true, but for a beta phase forum numbers far exceed subscription demand. Just look at WAR and AOC... both had 2 - 3 times the numbers we are talking about for DF and they might have 20% of those numbers now.
This is exactly what I was talking about with delusional expectations.
Talking about forums number. Way more people bought AoC and WAR then signed up on the forums.
Would have to be some serious screw ups for this game not to be somewhat successful. If someone promises you a million dollars, are you going to be mad if they give you 100k? Well maybe they would have to deliver at least 50% of what is promised.
Absolutely everything depends on the state of both the game client and DF's servers at launch. If the game is unstable, has memory leaks, or otherwise presents serious performance issues for the majority of its playerbase (think Anarchy Online and Vanguard at launch), then people will leave in droves and DF will have a hard time recovering.
They've got a dedicated fanbase, but even the most dedicated fans will leave if they can't run the game, or if the client is too buggy and/or poorly coded.
I wish Aventurine luck. They're going to need it, especially if they intend to launch in just over a month.
After release that might be true, but for a beta phase forum numbers far exceed subscription demand. Just look at WAR and AOC... both had 2 - 3 times the numbers we are talking about for DF and they might have 20% of those numbers now.
This is exactly what I was talking about with delusional expectations.
Talking about forums number. Way more people bought AoC and WAR then signed up on the forums.
Well first off WAR did not have forums. Lets stick with beta applicants since that is what we are really talking about here. (unless you think a peak of 3K translates to over 300K that are interested on the DF boards).
DF could sell 200 - 300 digital copies, but it is highly doubtful. WAR and AOC both his about the beta numbers in sold boxes, but subscriptions have since plummeted to about 25% of the box numbers. So it is doubful DF will sustain anything close to 300K subscribers. More then likely they will be in the 80 - 100K area.
-Atziluth-
- Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.
A success but only in terms relative to where Aventurine was about 4 to 6 months ago. Back when they only had ~50k forum accounts.
Which will literally SUCK for the company as it is Bad News Bears for the AAA developers when their servers swell in the first month or two, and then are ghost towns afterwards. How will Aventurine be able to handle such a massive in and then outflow of accounts?
Anyways, I imagine that 6 or so months down the line, they'll be chugging along with ~125k subscribers. That's if everything goes as well as it can. I see the events of paragraph 2 being an inevitability.
It IS interesting to note, that as atziluth said, for WAR and AoC- beta numbers were roughly equal to initial subscription numbers. Give or take 100,000.
80-100k is probably optimistic. More likely it will be in the 30-40k range. Something close to where Shadowbane was at launch.
Darkfall has its loyal fans, just like Shadowbane. Remains to be seen whether DF is another SB or DnL. It certainly won't top 100k.