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Fredrik Thoresen (DnBNor Markets): "Age of Conan has around 70.000 players"
croemar
Member Posts: 53
15.01.09 Fredrik Thoresen was quoted on Hegnar online (norwegian financial site).
- Det er rundt 70.000 spillere igjen p
Comments
Definetly not a good sign, i wouldnt be suprised to see the servers shut down soon. As i repeatedly said, this game had no legs and its now showing. In my opinion its still overvalued.
I'm hardly a fanboi, but this is just as much of a guess just like the "ZOMG the population's booming" delusional fanboi posts citing bogus xfire numbers. Other critics have looked at the same numbers and said 120-140k subs. That's a big descrepancy.
Funcom should just release their sub numbers. EA did it with WAR and it was hardly bragging. I hate EA almost as much as Funcom and I give them props for releasing figures showing they lost 60% of their subs. I doubt we'll ever see that level of honesty from Funcom.
He did some trolling earlier too, a scary one:
«Vi mener den nåværende strategien er ugjennomførlig» (having estimated the playerbase at 80.000 earlier back in 2008 Q3.
(My translation) «We are in the belief that the current strategy is not doable» (pointing at the fact that Age of Conans cashflow simply can not support further development of big MMO-games.
http://n24.pocketnews.no/225/569360/563849.html
I never said he's a troll. I have to assume he honestly believes his 70k estimate. I just wonder how he comes up with 70k when other critics look at the financials and say 120k. Obviously, if 70k is closer to reality than 120k, things are more grim than even haters believe. Funcom doesn't have the guts to release the real sub numbers to prove anybody wrong, so everyone is just guessing.
There is an estimate putting the game below 100k
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/funcom-reports-q4-USD23-3m-loss
But they just released in Russia and Poland so that number will rise. They can only hope they've fixed enough to keep those new customers coming in. http://www.tentonhammer.com/node/64513
Darth, I apologize for the misunderstanding, i wrote the follow-up not with your post in mind.
As for the "critics", it might be that some of them have not been "critical" enough, regarding objectivity and common-sense.
What we really have seen since launch is an entire community shout out the errors this game had (and still has). Fredrik Thoresen must have been one of the few that approached the numbers with a tiny bit of sound scepticism taking this into consideration. Not to mention he has been correct on all of his earlier predictions regarding Age of Conan.
To Funcom - with love
The C
There is no doubt that the Western US based audience is below average for AoC. But, as stated above, people have counted them out when we do not know how well the Polish or Russian communitites will do.
Right now, only a couple of big MMO's are in Russia...WoW, WAR, EQ2 and AoC. This audience alone is a major boon to Funcom. Especially since it has been noted multiple times that Conan properties are pretty big in Slavic nations. Should be interesting to see how this pans out.
But, I do agree that US audiences will get worse. Why? Because any doom and gloom always has a negative effect to the American psyche! A majority of people never touched the game due to reading the crap posted here for example. I do not expect it to get better...unless a trial or DX10 hits....and soon.
Ah well, gonna play til it dies, because really ...all other MMO's suck right now anyways.
Later
actually thats not too horrible , considering there are i think 6 servers (might be 8 i cant remember). So that does leave sort of a healthy population (as long as their sub numbers dont continue to decline). If they can maintain those 70k, the game would be in decent shape.
the Gameindustry.biz article refences an analysis that sites DnBNor as a reference.
If Funcom does intend to shut operations down, i hope someone like soe or similar will attempt to buy them out and operate under their umbrella.
The game is actually worth saving.
Part of the discrepency between ' trolls saying 120k and this guy saying 70k' is based on what you are actually talking about. The 120k number is the average number of subscribers in the 4th quarter... the 75k is his estimation of players NOW.
Most of the 'financial people' on this site have done some basic math with the revenues that Funcom just released. Those numbers support an 'average' subscriber base of AOC during the 4th quarter. That is.. in October it has 120k, in Novermber it had 120k, in December it had 120k. But that obviously isn't the way it works... The average of 120k probably resulted from something like 160k in October, 120k in November and 80k in December.
As of December 31st.. the game, according to Funcom, has 'almost stabilized'.. which means it has lost only a small percentage of players.. ie.. from 80k down to 75k now.
Age of Conan miss the mark ny 86%
Is 70,000 players enough of a "critical mass" to sustain community growth and allow the game to maintain a playerbase as time goes on? Funcom initially estimated that they would need about 500,000 monthly subscriptions for a "break even" point to sustain the game
And yes, the player base is trending downward atm.
There is no doubt that the Western US based audience is below average for AoC. But, as stated above, people have counted them out when we do not know how well the Polish or Russian communitites will do.
Right now, only a couple of big MMO's are in Russia...WoW, WAR, EQ2 and AoC. This audience alone is a major boon to Funcom. Especially since it has been noted multiple times that Conan properties are pretty big in Slavic nations. Should be interesting to see how this pans out.
But, I do agree that US audiences will get worse. Why? Because any doom and gloom always has a negative effect to the American psyche! A majority of people never touched the game due to reading the crap posted here for example. I do not expect it to get better...unless a trial or DX10 hits....and soon.
Ah well, gonna play til it dies, because really ...all other MMO's suck right now anyways.
Later
If "we" in any way, shape or form - have contributed to new players having second thoughts on buying from Funcom.....
I will shed tears of true happiness!
He based his calculations on Xfire, and other sites which he didn't mention. It's old news and I do trust the financial report more then the the market analytic from DNB. So called trolls and haters have strugled to prove this guy right so many times already and OP is not bringin anything new except necroing some old information no one ever has been able to confirm to be true 100%.
Playing: Battlefield - Bad company (Xbox360) Arma2, DFO (PC)
On my radar: TSW, MO
MMO's played: SWG (pre cu/cu), WoW, AoC, WAR, DFO, Planetside
MMO's that I have tested: Lotro, L2, Aion, Ryzom
If AOC really only has 70k in active subs then you can pretty much bet that this game will be going on Life Support until their new, upcoming MMO gets released. FC will strip the majority of their Devs from AoC and place them on the new project. AoC will continue to be a niche game but that is not bad. There are people who enjoy AoC and will continue to play it. It will be like Vanguard and have a skeleton crew of devs, coders, artists and QA and will do a few updates a year.
There is no doubt that the Western US based audience is below average for AoC. But, as stated above, people have counted them out when we do not know how well the Polish or Russian communitites will do.
Right now, only a couple of big MMO's are in Russia...WoW, WAR, EQ2 and AoC. This audience alone is a major boon to Funcom. Especially since it has been noted multiple times that Conan properties are pretty big in Slavic nations. Should be interesting to see how this pans out.
But, I do agree that US audiences will get worse. Why? Because any doom and gloom always has a negative effect to the American psyche! A majority of people never touched the game due to reading the crap posted here for example. I do not expect it to get better...unless a trial or DX10 hits....and soon.
Ah well, gonna play til it dies, because really ...all other MMO's suck right now anyways.
Later
How many of those former eastern Bloc countries have a significant number of households will have a PC beefy enough to run AoC on medium+ settings with good framerates? I'm guessing not a lot. Heck a good junk of NA and western Europe doesn't.
There's no way I would give AoC another shot until dx10 is added as a matter of principle, and the news of non consentual PvP now on PvE servers lowers the chance of me ever resubbing to zero. I like PvP, but only when I feel like it, and not when some bored twinks decide.
If "we" in any way, shape or form - have contributed to new players having second thoughts on buying from Funcom.....
I will shed tears of true happiness!
I cant get over all these new people who joined MMORPG in January 2009, and are suddenly experts on Age of Conan and it's financial situation,bugs,etc.
Where have they been since last year? Something going on here methinks.......will get back to you on this.
Gaming since 1985 and still going strong.
The debasing of the overprized AoC stock post-release, the first sound analizes of playerbase, the correct assumptions as to WHY the strategy of the game would fail, and the hurtful hindsigth that he was right all along...Mr. Thoresen, they laughed at you initially, then it was reduced to hints of misplaced smiles - all that is left from them now is their anger and disbelief.
There is no doubt that the Western US based audience is below average for AoC. But, as stated above, people have counted them out when we do not know how well the Polish or Russian communitites will do.
Right now, only a couple of big MMO's are in Russia...WoW, WAR, EQ2 and AoC. This audience alone is a major boon to Funcom. Especially since it has been noted multiple times that Conan properties are pretty big in Slavic nations. Should be interesting to see how this pans out.
But, I do agree that US audiences will get worse. Why? Because any doom and gloom always has a negative effect to the American psyche! A majority of people never touched the game due to reading the crap posted here for example. I do not expect it to get better...unless a trial or DX10 hits....and soon.
Ah well, gonna play til it dies, because really ...all other MMO's suck right now anyways.
Later
If "we" in any way, shape or form - have contributed to new players having second thoughts on buying from Funcom.....
I will shed tears of true happiness!
I cant get over all these new people who joined MMORPG in January 2009, and are suddenly experts on Age of Conan and it's financial situation,bugs,etc.
Where have they been since last year? Something going on here methinks.......will get back to you on this.
Scary.
You are not really a of MMOGers are you?. Either way if you are a not a MMORPG fan then you should find some other computer games to play. There is 100+ MMORPG + MPOG out there and if thoses cant you satisfaction then......
Spoils of War - The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it.
EvE has a large Russian player presence.
A few years ago FunCom banned all the members of more than one guild in Anarchy Online that were 100% russian speaking. The banned Russians fired back with DDOS attacks on the AO servers shutting the game down for more than 48 hrs. I am guessing all those players are probably not FunCom fans.
Right now, only a couple of big MMO's are in Russia...WoW, WAR, EQ2 and AoC. This audience alone is a major boon to Funcom. Especially since it has been noted multiple times that Conan properties are pretty big in Slavic nations. Should be interesting to see how this pans out.
But, I do agree that US audiences will get worse. Why? Because any doom and gloom always has a negative effect to the American psyche! A majority of people never touched the game due to reading the crap posted here for example. I do not expect it to get better...unless a trial or DX10 hits....and soon.
Ah well, gonna play til it dies, because really ...all other MMO's suck right now anyways.
Later
This made me lol irl. Do you believe the "american psyche" was the reason 90% of the population quit after 4 months? The reason why AoC is in such bad shape is because Funcom is a very poorly run company and also the fact that AoC simply sucks with a horrible endgame.
There is a reason why there arent any games launched in Russia and Poland. Its called not enough money and no computers. Especialy to run AoC. You pretty much need a computer that can land on the moon to play it to its full potential and hardly anyone in this country has that much less Poland and Russia. That decision will probably cost funcom more money than its worth.
Ah yes. I assumed people took that into account. The 70k figure makes more sense now.
I'm sure there will be a small jump in renewals for a month while people check out the new content. We'll see if it actually keeps anyone's interest.
There is no doubt that the Western US based audience is below average for AoC. But, as stated above, people have counted them out when we do not know how well the Polish or Russian communitites will do.
Right now, only a couple of big MMO's are in Russia...WoW, WAR, EQ2 and AoC. This audience alone is a major boon to Funcom. Especially since it has been noted multiple times that Conan properties are pretty big in Slavic nations. Should be interesting to see how this pans out.
But, I do agree that US audiences will get worse. Why? Because any doom and gloom always has a negative effect to the American psyche! A majority of people never touched the game due to reading the crap posted here for example. I do not expect it to get better...unless a trial or DX10 hits....and soon.
Ah well, gonna play til it dies, because really ...all other MMO's suck right now anyways.
Later
This made me lol irl. Do you believe the "american psyche" was the reason 90% of the population quit after 4 months? The reason why AoC is in such bad shape is because Funcom is a very poorly run company and also the fact that AoC simply sucks with a horrible endgame.
There is a reason why there arent any games launched in Russia and Poland. Its called not enough money and no computers. Especialy to run AoC. You pretty much need a computer that can land on the moon to play it to its full potential and hardly anyone in this country has that much less Poland and Russia. That decision will probably cost funcom more money than its worth.
The computer they used to land on the moon had 2k ram,read up on it here....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Guidance_Computer
Gotta love the people who quit AoC cos their PC's cant run it and then moan about gfx bugs,etc....lol
They spout the ol' "gameplay before gfx" line rofl,I could care less if you hate it,hate Funcom,etc.
All it boils down to is that a lot of people enjoy it and will carry on playing it,all you haters should gang together and try and make your own MMO seeing as you think its so easy.
And shame on any of you celebrating people losing their jobs,karma will seek you out........
Gaming since 1985 and still going strong.
There is no doubt that the Western US based audience is below average for AoC. But, as stated above, people have counted them out when we do not know how well the Polish or Russian communitites will do.
Right now, only a couple of big MMO's are in Russia...WoW, WAR, EQ2 and AoC. This audience alone is a major boon to Funcom. Especially since it has been noted multiple times that Conan properties are pretty big in Slavic nations. Should be interesting to see how this pans out.
But, I do agree that US audiences will get worse. Why? Because any doom and gloom always has a negative effect to the American psyche! A majority of people never touched the game due to reading the crap posted here for example. I do not expect it to get better...unless a trial or DX10 hits....and soon.
Ah well, gonna play til it dies, because really ...all other MMO's suck right now anyways.
Later
This made me lol irl. Do you believe the "american psyche" was the reason 90% of the population quit after 4 months? The reason why AoC is in such bad shape is because Funcom is a very poorly run company and also the fact that AoC simply sucks with a horrible endgame.
There is a reason why there arent any games launched in Russia and Poland. Its called not enough money and no computers. Especialy to run AoC. You pretty much need a computer that can land on the moon to play it to its full potential and hardly anyone in this country has that much less Poland and Russia. That decision will probably cost funcom more money than its worth.
The computer they used to land on the moon had 2k ram,read up on it here....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Guidance_Computer
Gotta love the people who quit AoC cos their PC's cant run it and then moan about gfx bugs,etc....lol
They spout the ol' "gameplay before gfx" line rofl,I could care less if you hate it,hate Funcom,etc.
All it boils down to is that a lot of people enjoy it and will carry on playing it,all you haters should gang together and try and make your own MMO seeing as you think its so easy.
And shame on any of you celebrating people losing their jobs,karma will seek you out........
Sorry but the majority of the player complaints at launch were "I bought $1000 in upgrades for my comp, and the game runs like sh!t, WTF!".
P.S. I think you are confused about the definition of Karma. A Multi-Million dollar company that lies about it's products to take advatage of consumers, and subsequently loses all of it customers and begins to falter financialy is a little closer to karmic retribution.