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Darkfall limited release = limited money, is this a "controlled demolition"?
Something I was thinking about. All these Darkall devs, basically Darkfall is the only thing on their resume, they need to release the game or else they are going to have a really hard time continuing their careers in the gaming industry. But if they are desperate for money, how can such a few number of subscribers save them? And if they are not desperate for money, why release when you cannot even have an open release of the game but have to limit it to only a few thousands of players?
Perhaps they are doing a controlled demolition of the game, basically they "release" their product in a limited way, knowing it will fail, but proving for the sake of their carreers that they really did release a playable game, had a launch, etc.
From current appearances, it looks like the game cannot stay financially afloat for very long... after spending tens of millions or so of investor money on the game development up front [with zero income coming in], it is hard to see how the small number of subscribers can keep the Darkfall devs afloat at this point in time. My thought is the game goes bankrupt within two months, and that Aventurine is already planning for that to happen. Just a guess, though.
The one and only.
Comments
You dont know anything about Aventurine.
I hate it how you people just say random stuff like they are going to get bank rupt, you don't <Snip> know anything about them. <Snip>
well I have heard they have 5500 people paying.
so that 242000 Euros just from that. then they will have the sub income after that. which is about 15 dollars a month. which is 82500 a month income...
this all hinges on the fact that those people stay, and that they don't open a new server or let more people on to the one they already have. even if they don't open a new server or let any more people in, some will quit opening up the already available spaces to be filled by the 100000 or more people waiting to get a copy of the game.
I would say they should be ok for at least 6 months.
I would not worry.
While I don't fully share the OP's opinion, there is obviously something wrong. You announce a release date, then only let a certain few in and apparently only have 1 server? Seriously, what gives? Obviously the game is gonna make some money being there are a shit ton of people still wanting to purchase it so if money was an issue I think they would sell some more copies.
Currently Playing: Toying around with AoC and bored with Darkfall
Thinking of Playing: Fallen Earth or Darkfall after this months update.
Have Played: EQ1, EQ2, WoW, WAR, Vanguard, EvE, Requiem, PW, Lotro, Lineage2, AoC, SWG...
my guess is that they had there publisher bail on them at the last minute... I have nothing to back it up, but it seems as if that is what is happening, as they are self publishing right now. Quite an amazing feat if you think about it.
Sorry, but I am having a blast playing Darkfall
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Even with the delayed launch, OOS issues, and all the other things people are complaining about, Darkfall still rocks!
I have faith in Tasos and Adventurine
my guess is that they had there publisher bail on them at the last minute... I have nothing to back it up, but it seems as if that is what is happening, as they are self publishing right now. Quite an amazing feat if you think about it.
Yes, they did have their publisher bail on them at the last minute. But why did their publisher bail on them?
Luther_Black, I am glad you are enjoying the game. I'm not trying to say it is a bad game, I haven't even gotten to try it, BUT... what if, as it appears to be the case, Aventurine found out they cannot support 10k per server, they cannot even support 5k per server... this seems to be the case. How many server can they afford at this point in time, if they are hard up for money, maybe it is only one server. If they cannot support the number of players per server that they thought they could support, then it is very likely their business model does not work anymore.
But if they release the game and allow 10000 players to play, with a server peak of 5k or so, this is the capacity they have [let's say for the sake of argument, as it seems to be the case], then the game will work for these players, the players will have an ok time, maybe even a great time, then the game will go bankrupt after a couple of months because the business model didn't work, and the devs will have a decent thing on their resume, a MAJOR project that they completed.
This is my thought.
The one and only.
my guess is that they had there publisher bail on them at the last minute... I have nothing to back it up, but it seems as if that is what is happening, as they are self publishing right now. Quite an amazing feat if you think about it.
I thought they had self-published the whole way. I'm pretty sure they had...its was among one of the few things Tasos said back in the day. They were trying to avoid a publisher so as to avoid a heavy financial investment to pay back. They figured that they could keep costs down by going it alone. They figured it would be better for them as a business since the market they were shooting for was so select.
I have played a lot of these types of games from as far back as MUDS. This game is the most fun I've ever had in a game...I look like hell right now because I've been up for the last 2 days playing nothing but Darkfall.
The game has pissed me off a few times and the game has made me laugh out loud also. The adrenaline rush at times has made me feel like my heart is coming out my throat. The world is huge and it's easy for me to believe that I know things about the game that no one else does.
I don't think it will fail...a year from now it will be the best thing out there. If it's not already.
The biggest indication that it will rock is the fact that no one is complaining about it's core features. It's the only game that has these features and they've done a decent job sticking to their vision.
I don't plan on letting anyone have my subscription, I am here for the long haul.
Gotta go now servers are going up.
my guess is that they had there publisher bail on them at the last minute... I have nothing to back it up, but it seems as if that is what is happening, as they are self publishing right now. Quite an amazing feat if you think about it.
Yes, they did have their publisher bail on them at the last minute. But why did their publisher bail on them?
Luther_Black, I am glad you are enjoying the game. I'm not trying to say it is a bad game, I haven't even gotten to try it, BUT... what if, as it appears to be the case, Aventurine found out they cannot support 10k per server, they cannot even support 5k per server... this seems to be the case. How many server can they afford at this point in time, if they are hard up for money, maybe it is only one server. If they cannot support the number of players per server that they thought they could support, then it is very likely their business model does not work anymore.
But if they release the game and allow 10000 players to play, with a server peak of 5k or so, this is the capacity they have [let's say for the sake of argument, as it seems to be the case], then the game will work for these players, the players will have an ok time, maybe even a great time, then the game will go bankrupt after a couple of months because the business model didn't work, and the devs will have a decent thing on their resume, a MAJOR project that they completed.
This is my thought.
no they didnt. they dont have a publisher they ahve a distributor thats it and a server hosting company. they self published
You did not include in that equation Server costs for bandwidth and hosting, and other costs like paying employees. You only counted income, and not out go.
my guess is that they had there publisher bail on them at the last minute... I have nothing to back it up, but it seems as if that is what is happening, as they are self publishing right now. Quite an amazing feat if you think about it.
I thought they had self-published the whole way. I'm pretty sure they had...its was among one of the few things Tasos said back in the day. They were trying to avoid a publisher so as to avoid a heavy financial investment to pay back. They figured that they could keep costs down by going it alone. They figured it would be better for them as a business since the market they were shooting for was so select.
It has been posted numerous times so I won't post it here but they had an agreement with Audio Visual to publish the game for them.
Of course we have heard nothing from Audio Visual for over 6 months which is not a good sign.
As the OP stated they can't make it with 5500 accounts for very long. It is simple business math to figure that out.
I am sure that some people on here are smart enough to run the numbers and see the outcome of that small of an income. Especially when you have over 10Mil in debt hanging over your head and an overhead cost that I would estimate at around 200 - 250K / mo.
The normal payment on a 10 mil loan would run them over 100K / mo on a 10 year note, which is half of their initial sales. That's per month people it is not rocket science.
They need the intial sales to either get aother server, similar to what CCP did, or they didn't have enough money to swich to the Gni severs. Either way they need the intial sales. I doubt it has anyting to with server load or else they would just sell more copies. They dont have the supply to meet the demand.
With the hype circling the game right now, I'm sure they have at least 100k people willing to buy the game. Making people wait is just adding more to the hype machine.
Games:
Currently playing:Nothing
Will play: Darkfall: Unholy Wars
Past games:
Guild Wars 2 - Xpiher Duminous
Xpiher's GW2
GW 1 - Xpiher Duminous
Darkfall - Xpiher Duminous (NA) retired
AoC - Xpiher (Tyranny) retired
Warhammer - Xpiher
You have faith in Tasos and Adventurine? Have you ever listened to them? They're the Sony of indie developers. Arrogant self rightious pricks who couldn't really give two shits about their community. This game could have been flawless, and I wouldn't go near it with people like them backing it.
Bans a perma, but so are sigs in necro posts.
EAT ME MMORPG.com!
You did not include in that equation Server costs for bandwidth and hosting, and other costs like paying employees. You only counted income, and not out go.
They all work for free and get there bandwith for free as well, just like every MMO
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You did not include in that equation Server costs for bandwidth and hosting, and other costs like paying employees. You only counted income, and not out go.
They all work for free and get there bandwith for free as well, just like every MMO
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Not to mention their investors don't want any money back, nor does the bank which gave them that loan they took a year or so ago...
Anyway it is way to early to say anything about long term finances, but I bet they released now due to needing the money badly. I would alos guess(! yes only guess!) that they would need at least 20 000 subs to survive long term.
Yes, darkfall is exactly like those stupid club owner. Why would anyone want to have customer waiting in like when they are more than happy to pay to get in the and deal with all the overcrowding. Seriously, doesn't Adventurine know anything at all about business to let all them money go wasted...
(I'm being sarcastic by the way)
It obvious they are and have been on damage control for sometime before now. Construcutive and critical Posts on there forums are removed in seconds. the NDA went right up to release more or less. The controlled release is simply because they have failed to procure a decent publisher / distributor to run multiple servers to cope with the demand. Meanwhile the first thing they can say about the game is the acknowledge there is a problem with macro'ing. Meanwhile people pay for stress testing and fixing AV shitty problems. Whilst the final nail in its coffin is the number of soloist type people wondering where the "higher" level game play is other than wandering around and gank people.
And they stil have not updated there website post launch and still plugging that large feature list... /sigh
You've got to take into account that alot of kids think money grows on trees and that the money coming into the company is just all profit hahahahahahahahaha.
So no rent or rates to be paid for the offices.
No electricity bills or other utilities bills to be paid.
No employee's to be paid, let alone completion bonuses.
No investors dividends paid.
No bank loans paid.
No bandwidth paid.
No business taxes paid.
The list can go on with all the costs that need to be covered each and every month, the youngsters out there who think it's all a oneway street into the developers pockets should take a look at some of the financial reports from the big games companies to see the truth of what happens to the money.
With the limited release I doubt these guys are making any profit and probably won't do for quite sometime.