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The MMO Dead Pool
ZsasZ
Member Posts: 208
A 'Dead Pool' is usually a list of celebrities that you think will die in a given year. I thought it'd be fun to apply that to games.
Question
What MMO do you think will die in 2009?
Qualifiers
- By 'MMO' we mean triple-A, P2P, marquee title.
- By 'die' we mean close *all* public servers and refuse to accept new customers for the foreseeable future.
- Bt '2009', we mean calendar year.
No prizes other than bragging rights obviously. I intentionally left out F2P games because in my opinion they come and go too fast to keep track of, with a few obvious exceptions. To kick things off, here are my guesses:
- Matrix Online- If the rumours are true, once DCUO launches, there will be no reason for SOE not to pull the plug on this.
- Age of Conan- I really don't see both AoC and WAR surviving into 2010, and it looks like WAR is putting forth more effort to stay alive.
- Darkfall- I really don't mean to join the hate brigade, but it's common sense. You simply can't run a business the way AV does and expect to turn a profit.
And remember, please keep it civil!
Evil will always win, because Good is dumb.
Comments
I would also agree that AoC is probably going to die out, possibly mid-year.
I honestly dont see any mmo failing in 2009 or the next couple of years. War has closed 68 servers, but apparently still has 250 to 300k subscribers, ofcourse this is not alot for the amount of money they probably put in the game but I dont think it is such a bad number that they would shut the game down.
AOC last time I checked is the same, it is a failure due to the amount of money put into it, but it stll has a population that will keep the game afloat. At the end of the day they are not going to shut down their only source of revenue if they are still making a profit.
Darkfall although a pile of crap has a rabbid fanbase, they designed the game, and their business around a population that would fill just one server, so most likely they do not have very high operating costs which would suggest they only need to do the bare minimum to keep their current fans happy to stay in business.
Most of the mmos I know about have their niche now and will probably do well for quite a long time, and they all have the back up of changing subscription models if they are really having problems. It seems to take quite a lot in this particular genre to really kill off an mmo.
HOnestly, I agree with ther above poster
The life expectancy for a MMO is still unclear. UO and EQ not only are still around, but released expansion content last year! Also how one player defines 'Death' is not the same as another player. Lots of players shout "DAOC is DEAD!" ..Yet I recently went back, hundreds of players on the server, fighting everywhere. NOthing was dead about DAOC except that Hib enchanter I crit'd from the tower.
If you define Dead as going out of business and cannot play the game any longer (which I think is the best description). I doubt any will. If I had to choose, Matrix online.
Torrential: DAOC (Pendragon)
Awned: World of Warcraft (Lothar)
Torren: Warhammer Online (Praag)
I don't get what is so difficult to understand from the word Dead.
If a MMORPG is Dead it means it is no longer operational, out of business, closing in a month of two, etc.
You guys have to look for another word to interpret as slow, almost dead, not alive with players but not empty either, etc. In spanish we could call it apagado. Heck, you could call it empty or barren.
If you had made this topic in january I would have posted Tabula Rasa and got bragging rights.
Personally I think SoE's Station Pass will get a work over. Time to trim the fat so to speak, and what better way then to dump those games that are relying on someone else's IP.
I really don't think both SWG and Matrix will last much longer as part of SoE's line-up. Hard to say if it'll happen in '09 but I think the chances are good.
Just a gut feeling and not based on any specific info.
Lame topic OP.
MMO deaths are VERY rare.
Might be very rare but we still got auto assault and tabula rasa recently. F2P games dont usually die because there is always a hardcore group of player buying all sorts of stuff in the tiem mall. and their pop per server is usually lower so they dont need expensive servers or internet connections.
THe only mmos that can die are the big one because the company invested too much and got very little back.
THis is what should have happened to aoc or DF if not for the blind fanboys.
This is what will happen to matrix soon if they dont add content.
And this is what happened a coulpe of times to ryzom (not sure if its still alive).
And no wow will not die unless they release a wow 2 where you can import the stuff you had in wow 1. Some people spent 10000h+ polishing their epeen in that game, they'll prolly go on playing for a very long time.
I'm not a no life that sits in front of his computer all day long, I'm an intern that sits in front of his computer all day long.
I hope no mmorpg closes this year, a lot of people have fun playing them