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How much time is left till WoW hits its plateau?
Azzthuras
Member Posts: 122
Im not a WoW fan, but ive watched over there site to see what there population is doing. Ive seen it beginning to plateau, and even know you can say its rising, its not. Its rising a little bit, but mostly because other subscribers are making new accounts and useing both. Blizz racks in a couple billion a month and after there xpac Emerald Dream, theres only one left till the end of there series "World Of Warcraft".
So, when do you think it will hit its plateau? Before the end of the series? Or after?
Comments
I think it's plateaud already, by looking at the numbers on WoW Census. WoTLK just hasn't had the lasting impact that BC did - there was a brief spike, now the numbers are where they were a year ago.
I'm sure Blizzards numbers are 100% accurate by their own measure, but I don't trust first party information on anything - you know it will spun to reflect as favorably as possible on Blizzard.
Right now WoW China is offline during a change of publisher, and could remain so for a while. Consider that over 50% of WoW subscriptions come from Asia, and this could be a catastrophe for them. If those players that currently can't play, go elsewhere, there is potential for the numbers to fall well below the 7-8 Million user mark.
My friend whose a Blizzard fanboi and loves everything they do quit Wow after WotLK and feels like it has ruined the game. He didn't like TBC enough but put up with it and WotLK was the final nail in the coffin for him. Like me he prefers the classic game and I don'tt think it has anything to do with the old content but because it felt well made. Now it feels bloated and a mess of content and Blizzard didn't really think of an online world when they made the content.
No doubt WoW cannot stay at the top forever. For now though, at least until The Old Republic (or the next Blizzard MMO) comes out, WoW will remain the top dog in the western market. Aion may give it a run for it's money in the east though. Also the publisher problems they are having in China don't help either.
Although I have been a big fan of Warcraft universe and consider WoW to be one of the better games out there, though I've stopped playing it a while ago, I have a feeling that WoW's time is slowly coming to an end. Unless they pull off a miracle with their next expansion or something. Honestly, I wouldn't put it past Blizzard, they are still a very talented development house.
When developers start to think more of the profits rather than the game itself, I lose all respect I had to them. I think this has happened with Bliz lately.
WoW was in a plateau,its downhill from now onwards. Aion is eating WoW raw in asia, and without asia WoW will lose 75% of its subs
Lol I think this is funny. I have started watching WoW posts until Zorndorf posts because they're so entertaining. I'm not really going to comment much here, except to say that this line:
"And seeing the changes Blizzard is making to the core game mechanics now (exp through PvP, exp shutdown, dual specs, gear sets to change even through portable banks, phasing, the revisit of old bosses on old levels (Hoggar, Van Cleef), mounted combat, new Bg's) ..."
Indicates that everyone is happy with these changes. You state it so matter-of-factly, as if you were the spokesperson for everyone playing. There are people cancelling over the new changes - even over the way the "new" armor looks, or being able to trade factions, etc., etc.
And to the highlighted lines above - I think it's funny that you debase almost every new game that comes out on these forums (Aion is your favorite right now, I think), predict how they're each going to fail and then say that the mmorpg genre is "taking off".
You're priceless.
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/played: EQ, EQ II, DAoC, WoW, LoTRO, AoC, CoH/CoV, WAR, Aion, Tera, Wildstar and many others that don't merit listing
/playing: Clash of Clans, Hearthstone
I've hated it for years.
"There are two great powers, and they've been fighting since time began. Every advance in human life, every scrap of knowledge and wisdom and decency we have has been torn by one side from the teeth of the other. Every little increase in human freedom has been fought over ferociously between those who want us to know more and be wiser and stronger, and those who want us to obey and be humble and submit."
John Parry, to his son Will; "The Subtle Knife," by Phillip Pullman
Lol I think this is funny. I have started watching WoW posts until Zorndorf posts because they're so entertaining. I'm not really going to comment much here, except to say that this line:
"And seeing the changes Blizzard is making to the core game mechanics now (exp through PvP, exp shutdown, dual specs, gear sets to change even through portable banks, phasing, the revisit of old bosses on old levels (Hoggar, Van Cleef), mounted combat, new Bg's) ..."
Indicates that everyone is happy with these changes. You state it so matter-of-factly, as if you were the spokesperson for everyone playing. There are people cancelling over the new changes - even over the way the "new" armor looks, or being able to trade factions, etc., etc.
And to the highlighted lines above - I think it's funny that you debase almost every new game that comes out on these forums (Aion is your favorite right now, I think), predict how they're each going to fail and then say that the mmorpg genre is "taking off".
You're priceless.
Priceless but always right on the spot these last 4 years.
)
It is called a vision based on facts.
))
(Xn, ... Sn) = Wow and a perfect formula of the state of the industry. As long everyone is playing along with the same strategies Blizzard is using you all just keep Wow on top, even the Wow haters.
It should be obvious: the market is laying outside of the strategies Blizzard is using NOT... inside the strategies.
Interesting. So Blizzard not offering LAN in Starcraft II is a strategy that everyone should be using? Not sure gamers would agree with that. Or the strategy of allowing soulbound items to be traded - while it may be a good strategy - it wasn't theirs. In fact, there's many "strategies" that weren't theirs. Because they're implementing them now doesn't mean they're new ideas. They're simply taking what others have done and putting it into their model. I would say Blizzard is taking from the market and creating their "strategy", not the other way around.
And "being always right on the spot" is a matter of opinion. Just like everything about these forums. That's the problem with your logic - you're "never" wrong. You couldn't admit being wrong if you tried. That's why you're so entertaining. I'm not even sure you could admit that your own words are opinions.
Dunno. But you keep on fightin' the good fight. I just hope Blizzard is paying you.
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/played: EQ, EQ II, DAoC, WoW, LoTRO, AoC, CoH/CoV, WAR, Aion, Tera, Wildstar and many others that don't merit listing
/playing: Clash of Clans, Hearthstone
Interesting. So Blizzard not offering LAN in Starcraft II is a strategy that everyone should be using? Not sure gamers would agree with that. Or the strategy of allowing soulbound items to be traded - while it may be a good strategy - it wasn't theirs. In fact, there's many "strategies" that weren't theirs. Because they're implementing them now doesn't mean they're new ideas. They're simply taking what others have done and putting it into their model. I would say Blizzard is taking from the market and creating their "strategy", not the other way around.
And "being always right on the spot" is a matter of opinion. Just like everything about these forums. That's the problem with your logic - you're "never" wrong. You couldn't admit being wrong if you tried. That's why you're so entertaining. I'm not even sure you could admit that your own words are opinions.
Dunno. But you keep on fightin' the good fight. I just hope Blizzard is paying you.
I am talking about the current market strategy of MMORPG's, I have no idea what SC 2 has to do with it.
I always talk about the general market and find personal feelings towards a game or mechanic rather trivial at best. Blizzard is not responsible for your personal up/downs and the need to publish them on the web.
I was always right on spot in the situation that arose after the publishing of WOW.
Blizzard found the best strategy in that market and so it is quite simple: unless you want drastically change the operational and tactical strategies of the "game" being played, you just reinforce the current market leader.
Should be obvious. The only thing that would hamper this status quo in the past were ... graphics, but the industry has evolved in 3D where the next three added hairlines are rather meaningless if the game mechanics aren't right.
So we are into what I would call a "locked" situation.
Everyone agrees to play on the same field with the same strategies and so ... you end up with the same market situation of mmorpg's. Controlled by one.
Not bad at all, perhaps the mass market has still to grow and it grows much better when you all talk the same language.
Wow language.
It is natural that you resist when you are young, but it is also natural that the growth only came from WOW, not from the latest launched products of the last 3 years who can hardly survive these times.
A good advice to the competitors : forget about WOW subs, make OTHER games. Not copies of the million seller.
I agree with this last post of yours.
However I do think WoW reached it's worldwide plateau right now, with the 1 month+ downtime of WoW China. I really think many left to try out Aion and if only 10% sticks, that will be a big hit for WoW China and WoW Worldwide in subscribers.
Financially it will probably be an improvement for Blizzard as they get like 30% more royalties from the new deal ( not sure of the exact number, this is out the top of my head ).
If you also look at the WoW census for the West you see that it is not growing anymore.
So yah I believe the plateau is reached, and WoW will not reach 12 million, however, looking at the data, I think the decline will be alot slower than other mmo's, like AoC or WAR.
Only time will tell, but if we don't get new WoW numbers between now and 6 months, it will be safe to say they are going down in subs.
If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site :
http://mmodata.blogspot.be/
Favorite MMORPG's : DAoC pre ToA-NF, SWG Pre CU-NGE, EVE Online
They're running out of lore to draw from. So far, all the expansions and patch additions have had some kind of basis in lore that was solidified in Warcraft 3 and TFT. Arthas was the last of the big baddies, besides Deathwing I believe. (Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Deathwing is a boss yet). Once the Arthas encounter goes live, then what? Someone mentioned the Emerald Dream as the basis for the next expansion. I haven't read anything official on that, but if so, it's the last place to see in the established WoWverse, unless there are plans to come up with completely new lore to keep the game going.
In any case, WoW is a HUGE game, both in content and subscription base. The momentum can't last forever, and it will close eventually. Perhaps this will happen when Blizzard releases official information on their new MMO. You might see a resurgence in numbers for a time, as people assume it will be closed, just so a last hurrah can be experienced.
It's all speculation on my part, of course. Perhaps the game will live on on a smaller scale when the next big thing (big enough to truly take on the behemoth, that is) comes along, and Blizzard is down to just enough subs to pay for the equipment and support staff.
"You'll never win an argument with an idiot because he is too stupid to recognize his own defeat." ~Anonymous
well i recently cancelled for the second time since retail release but this time im not going back reasons - its not fun any more u can only raid so many times level up alts. but for the time i had in it i enjoyed it so i move on to my next game
There are also the Titans (all the dwarven origin lore), Sargeras (and the lore related to the guardians) and perhaps the Nagas (a fully submerged city would be kind of cool). There is still lore to be explored. Even Deathwing the aspect dragon is not dead yet, as far as I know.
I liked the lore infused into the game. I'm perhaps among the minority that pays attention both to the quests and to the world that surrounds their character. The introduction of unrestricted flying was a major immersion hit for me and the prime reason that the world felt so detached and irrelevant once you got your flying mount.
Bingo.
Hello there. Seeing your chitchat made me create this account.
Soooo, Im a WoW-addict. Never played any other MMORPG. WoW has had 3 years of my life now. Yet I feel its end is coming. Why? It just feels old. It feels cheap. And it feels like theyre getting money away from players while they still can.
You cannot help feeling stupid when you are raiding Ulduar your heart out knowing that soon theyll just give epics to everyone ... again. Getting alts gets so old too. Also the great feeling of world-exploration has long gone. Dailies after dailies after endless dungeon/raid grinding.
Sad really. I know Im not the only one. I sympatize Z-person here.
So thats why. You cannot resist the inevitable. Only thing that remains is the change and WoW:s time has gone.
So, what next? I know PvP is not for me. Im full PvE. Counts Aion out right?
Tomuh
50% Achiever
30% Explorer
20% Sosializer
0% Killer
It already has. Turnover is so high in WoW it's absurd. You can jump in, play it for a few months, run through content and then move on. More dedicated players seem to take long breaks in between content patches as they get cleared so fast.
I resubbed till Aion comes out, but find it hard to have the same focus as I did before. I do notice that many new players have been joining WoW, players that previously would not play MMOs as they were too complicated for them. That's the main reason the WoW community has deteriorated so much.
Playing: EvE, Warhammer free unlimited trial, Allods Online
Played: Anarchy Online, WoW, Warhammer, AoC, Ryzom. Aion
Strongly Recommend: Ryzom, EvE, Allods Online
In my op WoW was done a few months after BC came out. Wrath didnt sell as much as BC did, so that just helps my thinking that. WoW has a good lvling system, good instancing and raids, bad PvP in my op, and it looks like a cartoon. I think the game was aimed for kids the whole time.
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Lol I think this is funny. I have started watching WoW posts until Zorndorf posts because they're so entertaining. I'm not really going to comment much here, except to say that this line:
"And seeing the changes Blizzard is making to the core game mechanics now (exp through PvP, exp shutdown, dual specs, gear sets to change even through portable banks, phasing, the revisit of old bosses on old levels (Hoggar, Van Cleef), mounted combat, new Bg's) ..."
Indicates that everyone is happy with these changes. You state it so matter-of-factly, as if you were the spokesperson for everyone playing. There are people cancelling over the new changes - even over the way the "new" armor looks, or being able to trade factions, etc., etc.
And to the highlighted lines above - I think it's funny that you debase almost every new game that comes out on these forums (Aion is your favorite right now, I think), predict how they're each going to fail and then say that the mmorpg genre is "taking off".
You're priceless.
Priceless but always right on the spot these last 4 years.
)
It is called a vision based on facts.
))
(Xn, ... Sn) = Wow and a perfect formula of the state of the industry. As long everyone is playing along with the same strategies Blizzard is using you all just keep Wow on top, even the Wow haters.
It should be obvious: the market is laying outside of the strategies Blizzard is using NOT... inside the strategies.
Interesting. So Blizzard not offering LAN in Starcraft II is a strategy that everyone should be using? Not sure gamers would agree with that. Or the strategy of allowing soulbound items to be traded - while it may be a good strategy - it wasn't theirs. In fact, there's many "strategies" that weren't theirs. Because they're implementing them now doesn't mean they're new ideas. They're simply taking what others have done and putting it into their model. I would say Blizzard is taking from the market and creating their "strategy", not the other way around.
And "being always right on the spot" is a matter of opinion. Just like everything about these forums. That's the problem with your logic - you're "never" wrong. You couldn't admit being wrong if you tried. That's why you're so entertaining. I'm not even sure you could admit that your own words are opinions.
Dunno. But you keep on fightin' the good fight. I just hope Blizzard is paying you.
Whats really funny about this is everyones comparing games to World Of Warcraft as if it was the first MMORPG to make the formula you talked about. Each MMORPG builds off each other and are not ever 100% origonal. World Of Warcraft is the most UN Origonal game on the market combineing all the aspects of EQ but puting in there own lore. If you play EQ and WoW, there the same game but with different lore and magical aspects. There pvp is the same. There PVE is the same. Ive played WoW for about 4 years since relese, ive played it longer than most that havnt quit already because of its plateau and boring new gameplay features. The only thing thats keeping this game alive is the "junkies" and the little kids who think they are the ones who created the World Of Warcraft era.
Stop comparing to WoW, compare to EQ if anything. Thats the game which started it all. WoW just put reinforcements that are temparary which will bite them in the ass when Aion and Starwars comes out later this year and next year.
Pretty typical WoW hate here.
The OP asked when WoW will hit a subscription plateau in the near future not if you liked it or if you have a friend that recently quit.
WoW hasnt hit a plateau yet but it is slowing. At E3 Blizzard along with the Guiness Book of World Records announced that WoW was at 11.6 million. Thats only a gain of 100,000 in 6 months but WoW is still one of the few MMOs that is actually having significant gains.
Im predicting slow growth until the next expansion where it will top off at 12 million.
I don't know how, what, where, when, or why WoW will plateau or die but I think I canceled for the last time. It just isn't fun anymore.
If your saying I was hating, I wasnt, I just dont like people who think WoW started MMORPGs so they compare it to that.
I think most of the evidence shows that WoW is hitting its plateau this year. Maybe...maybe they'll get to 12M, but not much beyond that.
Several factors lead me to conclude this:
1) Go to MMOGchart or MMOdata and you'll see that the rate of growth was slowing at a geometric rate as early as two years ago. It was growing, but very slowly at the time of last measure, and this was true even withn the release of Lich King. This slowing has coincided with all the promotional efforts that were made...tons of money in TV ads and smalltime browser distribution apps like HPgames did little to increase subs. It did increase them, don't get me wrong, but not as much as it should have, given all the effort and money.
2) Jeff Kaplan, alongside other instrumental devs in this game's success, is no longer on the WoW team. In other words, Big Bliz's best devs are not on this game. The brief history of this genre shows us that changes in key staff like this are a sign that the game is going to go downhill about one year later. I don't think the decline is going to be as rapid with this game, but the game is going to change, and it will change in ways that will probably cause much ire in the hardcore WoW fanatics.
3) WoW is in the fight of its life in Asia. This is because of a) the service outage and b) the big push currently underway from the launch of Aion. The fact that both of these things happened at the same time is a "perfect storm." If addicts can't get their fix from their drug of choice, they'll either experiment with a new drug or get clean...neither one of which is what Bilzzard wants.
4) WoW is also fighting for the youth market and entry-level MMO players...particularly with games like Free Realms, which have become much more savvy than WoW to capture this vital segment for WoW's future growth in the years to come. Free realms has 3 million registered players since April, and while I don't think Free Realms and other "kiddie faire" will conquer WoW, they will have an impact on WoW's ability to attract new subscribers.
5) Blizzard has also shifted priorities. For most of WoW's rapid growth, there were no other projects. Those projects it did have were cancelled to make room for more WoW development. These days though, it is working on Diablo III. It is working on Starcraft II. And they are giving both of these games their full attention. They cannot afford to screw these marquee titles up, because people have been waiting over a decade for them.
So, based on all these factors, I have to conclude that WoW is about as big as its gonna get. Therearen't many people left to sell this game to, and never before has the game had to deal with as many unique challenges as it has this year.
__________________________
"Its sad when people use religion to feel superior, its even worse to see people using a video game to do it."
--Arcken
"...when it comes to pimping EVE I have little restraints."
--Hellmar, CEO of CCP.
"It's like they took a gun, put it to their nugget sack and pulled the trigger over and over again, each time telling us how great it was that they were shooting themselves in the balls."
--Exar_Kun on SWG's NGE
Blizzard is probably one of the oldest CO in game history.
Blizzard and Westwood were competers at the bigining.
Blizzard already know this and probably already considred a new game long time ago.
I might say if Blizzard is going to make a Wow 2 the plans for it where probably made in 2005.
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After. Which will conviently correspond w/ the announcement of their next big MMO... which will conviently release in November of the following year.
Well said
If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site :
http://mmodata.blogspot.be/
Favorite MMORPG's : DAoC pre ToA-NF, SWG Pre CU-NGE, EVE Online