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My Prediction
urbanmonkey
Member UncommonPosts: 134
Mod Edit: As of today, this game is still under NDA (even with public testing). So please be careful what you post here.
This game will either be canned or it will be released, made F2P and then canned.
I am sorry but there is no way for a small developer to survive in today's MMO market where the biggest companies with huge financial backing fail right and left. MMO's have by far the highest development cost in the gaming market and with players being so demaning, the only companies that have a chance to compete are Sony, Microsoft, Apple, EA and their equivalents. Sure Fallen Earth could have 10,000 subscribers, but considering the development costs, I don't believe it would be enough.
It would be really cool if a small developer would come out with some amazing MMO that would be highly succesful but pig would have to fly first. Sad but true.
A few years back if you developed an under par MMO there was always the possibility of the F2P model. But even that market has been invaded by Sony and F2P games are now of high quality as well.
Mythic with the backing of EA could not finish Warhammer Online. What chance does Icarus have?
Not trying to flame the game, it is just my opinion. The same can be applied to Earthrise and any other under Indie development game out there.
Indie developers should stick to developing games for iPhone or games like World of Goo and Plants vs Zombies and not compete in a ring where EA Mythic has a hard time standing on its feet.
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Never argue with idiots. They are immune to logic.
Comments
Fallen Earth may actually do ok since:
- None of the large mmo devs do sci-fi mmorpgs except CCP (oh wait they were indie not so long ago too!)
- Fallen Earth is not your average class based game, no other game offers this except EVE & Darkfall, however one of those is terrible and the other is a slow burner.
- Fallout 3 recently refreshed gamers memory that a post apocalyptic world is hella fun.
As to your opinion that indie devs should stick to single player games, you do realise that it tends to be the indie devs that are actually innovative? The larger companies will usually go with what is currently the most popular formula and copy & paste - the Indies make thier games because they actually want to see thier baby come to creation.
The day Indy dev's leave MMO's will be a sad sad day as every mmo gamer will be playing WoW 3.0
Well, Fallen Earth is definitely no Fallout. First they chose a desert region for the simplicity of graphical detail. Second, the crafting system is so based in reality where things literally take hours to make, is just horrid in any MMO game. And third, the game lacks any sort of fun factor with its countless bugs with Nvidia cards, memory leaks, crashes and no real polish.
[Mod Edit]
Fallen earth has its own issues, in a world of korean F2P games (with now kingsisle and sony getting into it as well) and the world of P2P games with multi-million dollar budgets. No indie dev is going to be able to compete without offerring something drastically different to ALL gamers. The current trend of Sci-Fi end-of-the-world games coming out soon is going to flood the market. Sadly, this game will fall to the same problem that plagued Tabula Rasa, Planetside and even Anarchy Online; unless the game is absolutely perfect out of the gate, it will fail in this market.
I doubt that with the current crafting, combat and story model that FE offers will have any real impact with gamers, especially as a P2P game. The graphics alone will turn away most gamers, as well as the utter emptiness and lack of depth of the game.
Well, Fallen Earth is definitely no Fallout. First they chose a desert region for the simplicity of graphical detail. Second, the crafting system is so based in reality where things literally take hours to make, is just horrid in any MMO game. And third, the game lacks any sort of fun factor with its countless bugs with Nvidia cards, memory leaks, crashes and no real polish.
I really fail to see what you are trying to point out with the current game glitches. If the game had launched then fair enough but to complain about bugs from a game that is in development is pure stupidity. You do understand the purpose of developing a title? They don't just draw an idea on paper, add water and voila, here's a new game.
Have an opinion by all means but try not to be so stupid and criticise a games problems while a game is still in development.
If they are stress testing, than they be out of development. Not sure what else they could develop to make this game successful.
[Mod Edit]
A post apocalyptic setting doesn't mean that everything needs to be a desert and everything needs to be looking the same.
If something becomes extremely boring and frustrating real fast, then it's having a whole game world that looks the same all over!
The different zones, called Sectors, should have a lot more diversity. And with that, they should have picked a different region to be able to create more diversity in the first place.
Spending day in day out. Week in week out. Month in month out.... in a boring, blant world with no diversity just bores and frustrates real quick.
It's a real shame really. As the game really has some good stuff to go for. Crafting is refreshing and fun. Combine that with the different forms of scavenging and hunting. And you have a really good recipe for a awesome crafting MMO in your hands!
I just wished they spend more time and put more thought into designing a more diverse looking game world
Cheers
Well, Fallen Earth is definitely no Fallout. First they chose a desert region for the simplicity of graphical detail. Second, the crafting system is so based in reality where things literally take hours to make, is just horrid in any MMO game. And third, the game lacks any sort of fun factor with its countless bugs with Nvidia cards, memory leaks, crashes and no real polish.
I really fail to see what you are trying to point out with the current game glitches. If the game had launched then fair enough but to complain about bugs from a game that is in development is pure stupidity. You do understand the purpose of developing a title? They don't just draw an idea on paper, add water and voila, here's a new game.
Have an opinion by all means but try not to be so stupid and criticise a games problems while a game is still in development.
I understand where you are coming from, however MMORGP games are always in development so you are allowed to criticize them at all times
Seriously though, you have to take into consideration the fact that most game developers do not even announce a game before it's 50% done, do not post screen shots before it is 60% done, do not show videos before it's 70% done and will sure as hell not let you play it before it's 80% done. And even the last 20% is usually left for balancing, bug fixing, optimization and final content addition. Only a lunatic or desperate developer would think to make major changes to the game engine or mechanics a few months before release. Remember Funcom promising DX10 in AoC "just" a few weeks after release? They released it a year later. Take a look at AoC now and at release. Did it improve? Sure, it is more polished and balanced with more content but it still suffers from the same core problems that it did at release.
So when I login into a beta MMORPG game and I only like 20% of what I see, it is very safe to say that there is no chance that I will like the game even if it will be released next year. Most things in game will not change before release. It might run better, maybe the myriad of bugs plagueing the game will be quashed and probably some of the skills will be balanced. But that is about it.
If you don't like the game world, art direction and the game mechanics in general in beta, you WILL NOT like the game. I played the beta three times and I can't seem to login again even though I am bored out of my mind.
Maybe other people like it. I don't.
(all the numbers in my post are made up by me for the sake of conversation)
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Never argue with idiots. They are immune to logic.
I want to agree with you but I can't.
A) CCP released EVE Online in May 2003. That was Pre-WOW, a different era as you will surely agree.
C) While I do agree that Indie developers are the ones pushing innovation in gaming, innovation in the MMORPG is overrated. Just as the other mainstream industries such as the movie industry, innovation and brilliance is not always rewarded. You will sell more tickets to any generic, formulaic, predictable but well made movie with amazing special effects than you will to an Indie movie that is deep, complex, unique and requires a little patience to get into. The masses want shallow, polished entertainment that requires little to no effort.
You and I are the minority.
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Never argue with idiots. They are immune to logic.
You are wrong OP. Look at CCP with EVE Online. The thing is the indie developers need to not aim so high and promise all these features. They need to get a feature list that attracts gamers, but declare that they will do a phased release starting with a solid version of the core game, and then build upon it while gaining subs through word of mouth and not hype. As long as they have a solid core game without a bunch of pre launch hype and the devs prove themselves confident with a solid feature list they are going after they will gain a cult following and eventually do very well like CCP has done.
The problem is the indie devs recently have promised the world, over hyped, and under delivered. They tried to cram in too many features that weren't tested well so they spend the first 6 months of the games liftime simply fixing bugs instead of adding on features. Every game has a chance no matter how slim.
This is basically my beef with Fallen Earth, it just look and feel too indie. I fear that without a some capital investments the devs will not have the cash to create the necessary content and fix bugs. All which require a lot of money to sustain.
All a game has to really have to be successful is fun factor. It isn't like the major studios are pumping out high quality fun games lately.
If anything they look rather vunlerable to an indie developer.
I agree with everything you said, however what CCP did with Eve Online in 2003 might not be possible today. The market has changed.
Eve is a phenomenon, just like WOW is. It's a very unique game that still has no direct competitors. People either love or hate it, but it is brilliant nevertheless.
Fallen Earth? I really don't see anything innovative about it. The only thing unique about it is the setting but in Earthrise it also has a direct competitor. I had high hopes for TCoS (an innovative game from an indie developer) and got hugely dissapointed.
In truth, even if an indie game is innovative in several aspects, it is usually hugely lacking in others making it an average game at best. The only good coming out of this is that the power houses of online gaming can then copy these proven innovative features and incorporate them into their own games thus driving the industry forward.
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Never argue with idiots. They are immune to logic.
Well, Fallen Earth is definitely no Fallout. First they chose a desert region for the simplicity of graphical detail. Second, the crafting system is so based in reality where things literally take hours to make, is just horrid in any MMO game. And third, the game lacks any sort of fun factor with its countless bugs with Nvidia cards, memory leaks, crashes and no real polish.
I really fail to see what you are trying to point out with the current game glitches. If the game had launched then fair enough but to complain about bugs from a game that is in development is pure stupidity. You do understand the purpose of developing a title? They don't just draw an idea on paper, add water and voila, here's a new game.
Have an opinion by all means but try not to be so stupid and criticise a games problems while a game is still in development.
yeah, if they fixed the targeting system and all the other bugs, then the game would be mediocre....but hey, it's still beta slotted for release pretty damn soon so they might want to hurry up.
Whatever you think about major studios their products are a hell of a lot more polished than FE. And I'm talking production here, not the type of game. FE can't get away with it because it's not like most other MMOs. It should still have a certain level of 'finish' if they want people to pay a subscription to it.
Small game companies make MMO's all the time, and then the big companies front the money to get it out there. FE looks like crap but who is to say it will play like one. No fanboy here, just being honest. It doesnt matter the size of the company that makes the game, its straight up how good the game is that determines its success.
Im no fan of mmofps, or fighting mutant bugs (except in Fallout), but that doesnt mean this game doesnt have potential.
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You know ... i sit here and read all that trash B.S. that people are saying about the game.. .and yeah some of it could even be true... but i would have to be of the vast minority... because i love the game... yes the sernery is a bit dull.. but ti is what i would exspect post apocaliptic..yes there are anoying little bugs in the game...but no more then WOW or EQ had when they released...I think that to many people want to damn much and want to be uber out of the gate... well I for one want something new.. and F.E. has delivered in more ways then one... i love the combat system... and frankly its the 2nd best out there, right behind DDO... The crafting system is wonderfull yes it takes time to make things but your not limited to standing around doing nothing wile it happens... you also wont have a flood of the same item that 1 or 2 people control cuz they can produce 50 of them in an hour... But the bottem line is enjoyment... [Mod Edit]... and sence they are totaly screwing up DDO this game if released will defanutly see my subscription money...
My impression was that Icarus Studios was self funded by other projects they've taken on. I have known start up companies that fund their first projects by fulfilling contracts with other game development companies(providing coding/art/design support for example).
So long as they can garner a stable player base - I think Icarus will be fine. The problem with most MMOs is that they are almost sold purely on hype these days (driven by both anxious players and optimistic developers). Vanguard, WAR, and AoC have shown how this hype will damage the game long-term.
They all had great initial sales but have had a hard time sustaining a player base. AoC is said to be picking up steam. I'm guessing Vanguard is relatively stable ( or either really slowly growing or really slowly declining ). My best guess is that WAR is probably on the decline for now. While WAR is largely considered a huge disappointment, I think if Mythic plays their card's right, they'll be back in the game relatively quickly ( considering WAR is still on the minds of many and any word of improvement is going to peak interest ). Sadly, I have more faith in Funcom considering all they've done with AO - its still getting decent support whereas Mythic put all of its eggs in WAR, neglecting the game that originally got them there.
Icarus has been relatively silent about their game and extremely conservative in their hype. I know that if I am expecting a so-so experience and go in and find it so-so or a little better than so-so, I'm willing to stick it out. If I go in, expecting an awesome experience and only get so-so, I know I have a hard time justifying staying around. I imagine many players are similar in that regard.
God the Shrubs....
Currently restarting World of Warcraft
I would agree with certain points about Indie companies but Darkfall kinda counters your thread and yet survives. Darkfall would be an example of survival with hopes for the future.
Played : WOW, LOTRO, COH/COV, EQ2, SWG, and WAR.
Playing EVE Online and AOC.
Wtg for SW:TOR and WOD
Indie Developers can and do just fine. As long as they are realistic about their profit projections and their budgets...they can be ok.... and eventualy some can even survive to join the big leagues. Where indie's run into trouble is when they get a boatload of iniitial investment cash and get too ambitious about spending it to make a big splash and predicate their business plan on unrealistic production schedules and unrealistic initial profit projections. You see that sort of story with companies like CME, Sigil and Perpetual.
Icarus on the other hand, seems to be alot more conservative/realistic about their projections and budgets. It's a slow track to success....and it may not lead to a block-buster...but it can lead to a decent, sustainable proffitable company. EVE is the model for this sort of track.
Without violating any NDA's....as some-one who works in the software sector... I can tell you that for the stage of development they are in...thier product is WELL ABOVE average....in terms of polish and QA. Far better then most of the big companies products are at a similar development stage. Yes, they still have some bug squashing to do...and yes they still have some optimization to do.... but they are still officialy in closed Beta... so that is totaly expected at this stage of the game.
It's also not uncommon for a company to do multiple stress tests at various stages of development.... helps provide some metrics for the network engineers to work with. Just because they are doing a stress test doesn't mean they will be releasing soon....... and even if they did release in it's current form....the game would still be better in terms of polish then a fair number of the big name games were at release.
As far as setting/genre/etc.... that's all just personal preference...... The genre and setting really aren't my cup of tea....but there are also flavors of ice cream I don't like either..... doesn't mean they aren't popular with alot of other folks.
Wow. You weren't taking any chances at all with this "prediction", huh?
Way to really go out on a limb.
"TO MICHAEL!"
I agree with the OP too.
Either that or this will happen, or this and that will happen. Unless this happens first in which case that other thing may or may not happen.
"TO MICHAEL!"
Ok Mr. Smarty Pants. I see you are not running the strongest CPU around which may cause you to be a little confused so I simplify my prediction for you.
1. Game gets canned before release.
2. Game gets released, then made free to play then gets canned.
There are only two options and both reach the same final conclusion:
THE GAME WILL GET CANNED.
That is my prediction. Still confused? Need some sort of baseball sketches to get a better visual picture?
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Never argue with idiots. They are immune to logic.
Ok Mr. Smarty Pants. I see you are not running the strongest CPU around which may cause you to be a little confused so I simplify my prediction for you.
1. Game gets canned before release.
2. Game gets released, then made free to play then gets canned.
There are only two options and both reach the same final conclusion:
THE GAME WILL GET CANNED.
That is my prediction. Still confused? Need some sort of baseball sketches to get a better visual picture?
OH FFS.... get at least a tiny sense of humor....
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
1. Game gets canned before release.
2. Game gets released, then made free to play then gets canned.
There are only two options and both reach the same final conclusion:
THE GAME WILL GET CANNED.
That is my prediction. Still confused? Need some sort of baseball sketches to get a better visual picture?
So you think the game will get canned.
Finally, a prediction! And no more..
And yes, please try and find a sense of humor, lol.
"TO MICHAEL!"