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General: The Free Zone: Metrics with Matt Mihaly
Dana
Member Posts: 2,415
This week, Richard Aihoshi brings in some expert advice and talks to Matt Mihaly, CEO of Sparkplay Media, about metrics and MMOs.
One thing he pointed out is that measurements can be tricky, especially when used for comparisons, since numbers may not be "apples to apples" even when they appear so. They're more similar in the subscription realm, but even then, there's a huge anomaly in that more than half of the 11 million or so World of Warcraft "subscribers", the ones in the Far East, pay via methods other than monthly fees. Still, despite this and the need to estimate a factor for multiple accounts, we can gauge popularity and revenue within ranges of doubt that aren't as wide as those for F2Ps.
In the latter area, Matt seems to agree with me that registration figures alones aren't particularly meaningful. In fact, he goes so far as to say they're "useless" without proper context in which to evaluate them. "If they were achieved by large marketing spends, then so what? They don't measure anything but the effectiveness and size of those programs. One can buy registrations for $2-$3 apiece. That says nothing about a game or its players. Though I admire Free Realms, this is exactly how it has neared five million registrations so quickly."
Read it all here.
Dana Massey
Formerly of MMORPG.com
Currently Lead Designer for Bit Trap Studios
Comments
One thing i would like to point out is that we all use the Systen is calculating the stastistics so that we can measure the sucess of the game and its server population for other want to be players to join in. Otherwise the oly other reason is for Marketing purpose. Now i dont think that the industry will start to disclose thos figures which show actually how its performing wheather good or bad. The sucess of the game can be measured in its profit... more the money it makes more ppl like it and hence pay more. I come to this general conclusion beacouse people PAY if they like it. I cant take into account all those grind happy people who dont pay and moke ingame money. Both sides of the coin are the same size!. So do i see a future where industry disclose the correct information-NO. Can any one tel me any company that disclose all the pros and cons in their add on their own.
There is a governing body which tels them to disclose and hence they do it in the fine print only. Like a luxury car wont tel about its milage in the add.
So i think companies wil tel all those statistics if:
1.People who play ask for it
2.Their is a standard world organisation(just like ESRB) which collects and publishes data
Sorry for the bad english if its
whats with all the metrics bits?
Anyway a decent article i suppose. Maybe down the track when we have a consumer watchdog or some sort of regulation in the industry we can expect to see some sort of common measurement developed (some complex maths equation that takes profit, divides by subscribers and squares it by the amount of fun they have, sort of thing).
MMO wish list:
-Changeable worlds
-Solid non level based game
-Sharks with lasers attached to their heads
This article just gave me a feeling: the author made a mistake, he believe he can use a “exact” statistic data to measure and get clear about everything, as if a statistic data could ensure a presumption becoming truth. Just like in the old days, teachers use some statistic formula to measure us, they use a so- called “reliable scoring system for norm-referenced tests” and believe so that they could know who will be the good student in the future who will not, but could we really use a prior statistic data to anticipate anything or find the positive correlation between each other? I don’t think a game would be so easy to be analyzed.
I think this guy majored in obfuscation.
Pretty easy to measure any of these games, count the number of servers and see what their levels are. Easy to see that Free Realms is NOT doing as well as SOE wants you to believe using such a method.
Pretty hard to hide when most servers are low or when there are few servers.
The major problem for these f2p games these days is intense competition. You are going to see many of the weaker ones fold.
Nothing is guarantied, but there are successful "formulas" all around us. They exist in every TV show, Movie, Song and probably anything else you'd ever think about. The funny thing is we generally prefer that these formulas be hidden from us, even as we crave them in the product. Think about it, very few movies defy convention (those that do often remain obscure) and yet we bitch and moan about a movie that doesn't mask it well saying it has a formulaic plot. Someone has probably worked out a formula for how to best hide the formula for TV and movies. Oh yeah to the standardized test and placement thing: for all the negative BS piled on by the PC gestapo, it was effective when it was used, and the plummeting standards as it was phased out/eliminated is more than enough proof it did work.
MMOs still have some maturing to do. Before that though, we need an honest set of tools to evaluate what does and doesn't work. With that MMOs can branch out as a safer venture, because at its core will be a proven system (complete with working variation formulas). We need an axe before we can make a boat.
So, was there any conclusion drawn from the discussion?
This really didn't bring anything new to the table besides promoting the said CEO and company, it's as if we never discuss about how these metrics can be so inefficient and used just for press highlights, especially at every Free Realms "+1 million registered accounts" press releases, which they had 3 or more already.
In other words, the moral of the story is ...statistics being statistics, you can make them mean anything you want...so if you want your game to appear to have large player base, you report the number of registations...if you want your game to appear to be the most actively played virtual world you report the number of accounts curreently (simultaneously) connected to you...if you want to make that number look bigger then it really is you report the same connections for the last 30-60-90 day increment....
Thanks for the tip... 8)
http://www.forceofarms.com/index.php
And if you would like larger custormer numbers you sell to China.
..its a guideline, not a rule, as players we must remember: Its a Game.
There is a simple way of doing this.
# of subscribers = # of people interested in the game and how well initial marketing of the game worked.
# of players, active subscribers within the last 30 days posted monthly = The actual playability and likeability of the game.
Simple equation:
Subs > active subscribers = content or playability lacking, marketing efficient
Subs < Active subscribers = Marketing lacking, playability retention good.
# of players, active subscribers within the last 30 days posted monthly > previous month = successfull player retention, playability and likeability are good = SUCCESS
# of players, active subscribers within the last 30 days posted monthly < previous month = failure in player retention, playability and likeability of the game are bad = FAIL
Why is that hard such a hard concept to follow? Who is trying to protect their job here by saying they really have a hard time confirming the metrics of how the game is going?
With the formulas above you can then evaluate revenue inc vs expenditures and determine if you are losing or making money. I do not have a business degree, just seems like plain logic to me. Or is it that "New Math" that has to add an x everywhere?
Say hello, To the things you've left behind. They are more a part of your life now that you can't touch them.
It's good to see mmorpg.com delivering balanced and informative articles on a reasonably hot topic like this, unlike some other sites *cough* massively.com *cough*