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WOW will eventually decline.soon most likely
cybertrucker
Member UncommonPosts: 1,117
Ever hear of the saying to much of a good thing makes it not so good? Well I have a prediction and that is that SOON WOWs decline will start to happen. For the last few years people have debated about the WOW killer games. This game is going to kill WOW and that game is going to kill WOW. Declining I think would be a more appropriate term to use. Killing WOW would mean turning off all the servers, and lets face it we know thats not going to happen anytime in the near future.
However that does not mean the games decline is not coming and not coming soon. Now saying this I do not really think that another MMO is ever going to reach the amazing level of success that World of Warcraft has been able to achieve but I do believe personally that within the next 1 to 2 years a game could and most likely will come along that will knock WOW out of its number one spot.
Lets face it, all good things come to an end, and WOW has definately reached its peak. You can go on any forum for anygame or fansite anywhere and people are looking for something new.. Something different. In the last few years we have seen several games come out with hopes of toppling the giant that World of Warcraft has become. But They have been rushed to press causing for high promises that could not be fufilled and also very bug ridden.
I myself played in several of the Betas in the last few years. Vanguard... and WAR were 2 such Betas that I partook in Both claimed to be WOW killers. I didnt see it happening. As I watched both games launch with so much hype when I knew neither games were really even ready to be launched.
However some of the newer games that are upcoming.. Well I think the developers are learning from the mistakes of the past. I look at the current games I have been partaking in beta. Both Aion and Champions... Both games regardless of what some people say, are just at an amazing level of completion. They run smooth, seem to have done alot to get the content in the game before launch, and all around are more polished then what we have seen in the last series of games to launch IE the Vanguard to WAR era.. including games such as AoC.
At one time EQ1 was the reigning champion of MMOs... Sure Lineage had more subscriptions but the world then was more seperated when it came to gaming. But here in the West EQ1 was king, and stayed that way for a good many years. But people eventually grew tired of it and wanted something new. Thats when WOW arrived a game that was well polished ran good and was exiting. It downed the king. They didnt kill it. Heck EQ1 still has more subscriptions than EQ2..However it doesnt sit on top anymore.
WOW is coming to that point... and I believe sooner than later. Especially with what I am seeing coming down the road. I will not say anyone game is going to do it. However people are leaving WOW.. and yes I realize new people still will log in or people will return. But the game has reached its saturation point. Now there really is only one way for it to go and that is down. THe new line up of games in the next year to 2 years I feel will be responsible for that.
Anyway I am done with my rant. Just figured I would give my prediction. I could be wrong. However I dont think I will be.
Comments
Oh look, another prophet saying WoW numers will decline. Yeah, if you people keep sprouting that kind of threads every week one of you will eventually be right.
Sorry OP, but we have heard this time and time again and it never really happened. The only reason why WoW's subscribtion numbers might decline soon is simply because of the giant mess up with the change of hosts in China, where WoW was down for a month.
You use the same arguments we have heard all to often. "When I go to forums or fansites, I see people getting bored of the game anywhere".
What did you expect? The game has 11 million subscribers, ofcourse you're going to see people getting bored and you'll see new people joining all the time everywhere.
Even if you collect all the forum posts and fansite messages of people quitting you have ever read, do you realise what a small portion of the entire WoW community that is?
There is not one group of World of Warcraft players that all play at the same time. A game that like that has different generations. People join and leave all the time, Many people aren't bored of the game at all.
I don't see anything whatsoever that suggests a peak.
I think WoW has already hit its lowest point, and after Blizzcon, that decline will soon become a resurgence of old players coming back to the game with the promise of now meaningful PvP, and the world they once loved being revamped. Blizzard had trouble in China, and WotlK wasn't the greatest expansion, but those dark times are behind, and myself and millions of other players look forward to Icecrown Citadel and the new expansion.
As an ex wow player I can tell you there's no GAME right now in the mmorpg genre that gives the same "world" felling World of Warcraft has and I'll be surprised if anything comes anytime soon I waited for aion for a long time and beta tested it for long and it's not even close..
World of Warcraft is a proof that MMORPG quality should affect schedule/budget and not the other way around.
Well said, I couldn't agree more.
i think a small population of wow sub left cuz of the economy and yes WOTLK really did horribly but from the looks of the new expansion and how many old players are seemingly really curious about this game, i can see that in 2010 when it is released, many old players are gonna come back, maybe they wont play any longer than a month because they feel its the same old wow but im sure a portion of that population would be gladly back into wow. I doubt wow would die or keep declining to the point where it would resemble a low ranked game. i dont see that happening because the game appeals to both kids and adults. Cataclysm is going have more higher graphics requirements which to me sounds like that the game will be even more polished and the graphics would be more appealing than ever...
http://hushwolf.mybrute.com
WoW gains players faster than they lose them.
I don't see this changing anytime soon. The majority of the mmo community loves the announcement of expansion 3. The revamp of Azeroth will virtually kill any new mmo that releases during that time. Put bets down on blizzard guys because not one of the new mmos will stack up to WoW and this expansion.
Aion? CO? TOR? ER? MO? I could go on and on. All those games will fill a niche but none will be as good for a whole mess of people like WoW.
Playing: WoW, EvE
Interested in: TOR, ER, GW2, WoD, Dust514
A game will come along and that game will be Diablo 3, but we have a few more years still.
Yes! but isnt Diablo 3 coming out around next summer?
Yes! but isnt Diablo 3 coming out around next summer?
I...would be very surprised, because that would mean that SC2(2010), D3(2010 summer), and the new expansion of wow (2010???) all 3 will come out at the same time/year..thats gonna be uber crazy, all those bugs to fix, customer services...etc...i would expect them to release a little spread-out...but perhaps i could be wrong..
http://hushwolf.mybrute.com
Yes! but isnt Diablo 3 coming out around next summer?
It is officially not coming out in 2010 and that is from Blizzard.
http://www.gossipgamers.com/blizzard-no-diablo-3-release-for-2010/
But developers aren't learning from mistakes of the past; they're repeating them. It's either variations on the WoW theme or niche products; neither present a threat to Blizzard's mainstream behemoth. Their new expansion can only be considered 'new' by the loosest possible definition. Reskin, resize, rename is the design credo behind it and yet the WoW community's chomping at the bit to get in there and do basically the same old shite they've been doing for 5 years.
WoW numbers won't seriously go into a decline until an IP comes along that does something different enough that word of mouth sees it spread like wildfire. WoW isn't a success due to being original (every expansion since proves that); it was a success because the market was ripe for an MMO to come along that would break out. It was the right product at the right time in the right environment. At launch it was as broken as everything else; server queues, imbalances, crashes and bugs but when you got in there it was nothing like any other game on the market; it was the Wii of MMOs - everyone could play it to some degree and Blizzard took the geekiest of genres, the MMO, and made it accessible to all who were inclined to try it. Millions were.
Ever since, people have predicted that such-and-such a game will be the 'WoW-Killer' and they're wrong. Who's closest to WoWs subscriber base and revenue stream? What incoming IPs are going to buck the trend? The likeliest contender recently was Warhammer and that was, and is, a joke. The screwed it up so thoroughly they shipped batches of the game that didn't have a working executable, for God's sake. The 'year on' progress report posted on this site seems to basically be summed up as "it's much more stable than it used to be and almost all of it works to some degree, and we added some new stuff". WoW-Killer? Sure.
And to those that say 'yes and that is exactly how WoW was at launch' are quite correct but the point is why, 4 or so years down the road, it's still happening? Modern MMOs seem to launch a beta product and then go into a patching frenzy trying to stop it falling over completely. It's absurd and, sadly, increasingly common. Where, in all this, is cause for Blizzard to be concerned rather than rolling around pissing themselves laughing.
For me, the most likely WoW-Killer will be Blizzard themselves when they release their next MMO. But don't hold your breath for that one because, as all the 'WoW will die' brigade seem to forget, there's the Warcraft movie coming in a year or so.
And what's the betting that'll be timed to coincide with another new expansion and that both will see to it the game gets a second wind.
Plenty of milk in the cash cow yet and there's no-one on the horizon who's seriously going to change that situation.
The ruptured capillaries in your nose belie the clarity of your wisdom.
I wouldn't be surprised if Blizzards new mmo is of a different genre than wow and they go on to have the top 2 mmos.
I'm tired of all those predictions about what game will kill WoW.
I think you're all mediocre mediums!
The best you can do is having hope. It can be good or bad hopes.
My hope is that everybody would sh*t up about what's gonna kill WoW!
Oups... sorry if I offended you.
Now playing : FFXIV
Waiting on : TBD
Best MMORPGs played : EQ, FFXI
Kotor will take some subs, maybe even alot if its good. Tons of bored WoW players around... but yea I wouldnt be suprised if WoW still has 4-5 million players 5-6 years from now.
Playing: EVE, Final Fantasy 13, Uncharted 2, Need for Speed: Shift
WoW player: look out it's an Aion and it's coming right for us.
You want the WoW players to say this, yes? Won't happen.
Every day since this game has come out I've seen some long winded post why WoW will suddenly drop from 11 million players to nothing. I don't even play the game. But I am waiting for one of the prophets to be right about the coming Cataclysm.
The end is near!
There is nothing on the horizon that will hurt WoW this year. Aion=Lineage 2 with wings*yawn*. I don't mind Champions so much. But it's a niche game, as was CoX. Realistically, there is nothing in development that i know of that will hurt it. The new Star Wars game doesn't really sound so special to me. That is really the only one I can see doing some damage to Blizzard. But it will be far from killing it. For the first time in many years there is honestly no MMO in development that sounds fun to me. Only Blizzard will dethrone WoW.
This is all just my opinion of course. But if naysayers can predict the future, so can I.
Ah, another prognosticator of doom and gloom. Y'know, in maybe 4 or 5 years of more posts like this, one of you might get lucky - by the law of averages and sheer coincidence - and be correct. Keep up the wailing and the rending of hair, it's a good look on you.
let's just go and back pedal a bit, I think the OP has a point
1999 - Everquest grand daddy mmo - how things were done
5 years honeymoon untill...
2004 Word Of Warcraft - Refines polishes knock EQ out fo the water very quickly - broaband uptake helps with host larger numbers in MMO's
5 years honeymoon untill...
2009 Aion Online Launches - new game play graphical standard and pvp tactics refines genre - broadband has moved onto ADSL2+ technology is there to host even more players
just a guess though...
I think your most likly right .Any game even one as popular as World of Warcraft has a shelf life . The only reason its really maintained its numbers is due to the fact all the mmos released since it was launched have failed in one way or another .There lots of people that love WoW that would have you believe that Aion is too pvp centric or and asian grinder but most of them i think you ll find have not actually played the game . Personally i used to like the world pvp in WoW but thats all gone so the pvp in Aion does nt bother me one bit in fact its a bonus .
On the issue of WoWs decline it is happening already that is a fact . Its partly due to the situation in China but the loses almost certainly go beyond this . When Blizzards subs were going up they made a big thing of releasing subscription numbers every quarter . So far this year they have not made any statement pertaining to this issue . If this was souly down to the subscriptions in China .Blizzard would have released the figures for the west to show that the game was still healthy here . Some people will point to WoWs entry into the guiness book of records this year but the information for that was collated when the game was at its peak .
I think the arguement a lot of fans of Warcraft will have when it becomes so obvious to even them the game is on the decline is that wait untill the cataclysm xpac will be out in just over a years time and it ll return to the numbers it once had . Whether this Xpac will be the big fix that puts right a lot of whats gone wrong in WoW remains to be seen . By their past form i doubt it .
Where did i say that it did nt still have millions of subs . I ve just said its lost significant numbers .Blizzards silence on the matter means they are losing subscriptions . The xfire graph i ve seen before it really is another tool that fanbois use to prove Warcraft is still at its peak .
Its not actually accurate all it does is count how many xfire subscribers who have logged into xfire while they play a game that is on that subscriber's xfire watch list . Not everyone that plays an mmo uses xfire . All it means is that its a popular program for Warcraft players .Actually in my time in Warcraft i knew hundreds of players over the years i was there and not one of them mentioned xfire once . Lots of people did use vent though .
To use that graph makes you look a fool Zorndorf . I suggest you stop cutting and pasting it all over these forms to try and prove your point because it proves absolutly nothing .
WOW will never decline until developers start polishing their turds before release. I don't think consumers mind if the game doesn't have all of its features included at release, but its extremely frustrating when the client or the server run like shit.
Aion plays nothing like Lineage 2 at all.
Oh wait, it must be because it's made by the same company, because releasing a product that is in direct competition with one of your other products makes perfect sense, right.
Aion is a completely different game from Lineage 2. The only way you can possibly argu it's like Lineage 2 is if you know next to nothing about it.
I think the key, and the main reason I beleive that Aion will not take the spot from World of Warcraft is the graphics.
A lot of people are now starting to slant the art style in wow, but what they fail to realize is that even 5 years ago, blizzard could have made wow look far more realistic than they did, the reason they never remains the same in todays environments, they wanted wow to be able to run on as many computer systems as possible.
I feel that Aion will suffer the same fate of crysis, sure it will look stunning, but the number of systems in world that will run it the way it should be run will be far fewer than those that could run it if they tuned down the engine a bit.
9 Million people play wow because 9 Million people have systems able to run it well enough, Iv seen people play and raid on systems with 10 FPS, thats how good their game is, new games like Aion have no chance of reaching those figures for the simple reason that there are still Millions of people out there with entry level systems that simply will not do the game justice.
Developers need to realize that if they really want to win the mmo fight and capture a vast majority of users' they need to make sure their game will run on just about anything from a voodoo 2. to a top of the range card. and not just top the top 10% of the online community who buy the newest cards each time they come out.
Despite the fact I do not play Wow any longer, there is no question that it is clearly the most successful MMORPG in history and will continue to out sell it's competition for several more years. Blizzard is a dynamo in marketing and with the announcement of their new expansion, clearly will continue to dominate this genre.