Was that thesis on subscription number breakdown necessary? Does it really matter that much?
Nope, but because people were arguing about it I threw my 2 cents in.
Playing: Guild Wars and Exteel Loved: WoW, Guild Wars, FFXI, and Lineage 2 Liked: Exteel, WAR, and Lineage 1 Hated:City of Heroes, City of Villians, Matrix Online, Runescape, and D&D Online. Waiting For: Aion, Guild Wars 2, FFXIV, and SW:TOR
Was that thesis on subscription number breakdown necessary? Does it really matter that much?
To some yes to others no....i liked it though bcoz it gives me an idea of what ppl do and how a company "measures" their subs...
Thanks lol.
Easier answer. Anybody paying for an account wether it be 1 or more is technically a subscriber. :P
Playing: Guild Wars and Exteel Loved: WoW, Guild Wars, FFXI, and Lineage 2 Liked: Exteel, WAR, and Lineage 1 Hated:City of Heroes, City of Villians, Matrix Online, Runescape, and D&D Online. Waiting For: Aion, Guild Wars 2, FFXIV, and SW:TOR
This game is still a month away from release and is number one on unique hits by a landslide margin. WoW is sorry 3rd place way down the ladder, i guess it translates with the loss off subs this past year. This a great indicator on how a well polished game and word of mouth can succeed over failed marketing hype by a game company.
How accurate can those numbers be though. I mean Earth Eternal is on the list, and the general consensus about that game, (myself included) is that it's horrible in almost every single aspect. Aside from people who will play a post-apocalyptic mmo whatever it looks like, I don't think it's going to do so hot.
Originally posted by FastTx I just can't fathom why people believe a game needs to have 3-4 million subscriptions on release. WoW didn't even manage that, it grew to 11 million in 4-5 years of growth.
I just can't fathom why people believe a game needs to have 3-4 million subscriptions on release. WoW didn't even manage that, it grew to 11 million in 4-5 years of growth.
You'll note that WoW released in November of 2004. 6 months after that would be...5/2005. That's a little over 3 million. I'll give you close to 200,000 more than the graph allows for the internet cafe's in Korea but even that's a stretch for the time period. China hadn't yet come out but they had about 100k in beta around this time, but was released in June.
Yeah I agree, SW: TOR is going to have mucho players when it comes out. And the no grinding system is the most talked about so far. I am not knocking Aion. I have played the Betas so far and I love it. It is just with gaming brow beating, Star Wars is beating it by far.
You have to be wary of the concerns now that SW:TOR will be nothing more than a glorified 2-player experience for most of it's leveling system. Obviously we will know more closer to release, but it's a valid concern that may alter how many people end up playing.
Despite the huge following, the game has been released for about a year now on the other side of the world. I am pretty sure those folks have their upsets about a year ago with bugs and what nots, but thanks to them, we get a polished game this year, due to them.
Will North America Players take this game seriously, or will it just end up like a huge Asian grind game like the other popular Asian style games (Lineage 2, Silkroad Online, Cabal etc etc). I have played beta and was amazed myself, however I still have my doubts on the game to be enjoyable all the way thru end game, I hear the grind is pretty rough as you progress thru the levels and becomes a job.
By hey, I am being very bias due to the fact I love sandbox mmorpgs over theme park mmorpgs any day of the year.
My friends and guild are going into this game, I am just going to try out the Beta thru fileplanet and judge it myself once again.
Maybe I not seeing the same thing as them, but all gamers are different.
Just my quick thoughts.. Despite the huge following, the game has been released for about a year now on the other side of the world. I am pretty sure those folks have their upsets about a year ago with bugs and what nots, but thanks to them, we get a polished game this year, due to them. Will North America Players take this game seriously, or will it just end up like a huge Asian grind game like the other popular Asian style games (Lineage 2, Silkroad Online, Cabal etc etc). I have played beta and was amazed myself, however I still have my doubts on the game to be enjoyable all the way thru end game, I hear the grind is pretty rough as you progress thru the levels and becomes a job. By hey, I am being very bias due to the fact I love sandbox mmorpgs over theme park mmorpgs any day of the year. My friends and guild are going into this game, I am just going to try out the Beta thru fileplanet and judge it myself once again. Maybe I not seeing the same thing as them, but all gamers are different.
Yeah, I would say the best thing to do is give it a go. I hit 23 in beta and didn't have to grind at all, so I think if you just quest in the right places you're fine. Not to mention 1.5 introduces things like rested xp, pvp xp, and more quests.
Ok, wow some amazingly long posts. Aion definitly has rights to be the most popular atm. It has literally about 20 days till launch. Aion looks promising and very detailed along with being eventful boosting it's poularity as well. It also seems to give pvp players what they want. Now at some of the other players... WoW had up to 11 million subs at it's peak. China banned it dropping it increasingly. Statistics and people say around 7.5mil subs left. Then you need to divide that number by 1.2. 20% of the current population have a second subsribing account. Maybe less but for the sake of theory 20% works. Thats about 6.25 million accounts. Then you divide that by 1.05, because 5% is about the amount of players who multibox and or own 3 accounts. That's definitly not accurate and even harder to calculate. That drops the amount down to around 5.95 mil subs. Then you divide that number by the amount of players who are gold farmers and account sellers. For sake of arguement lets get rid of the measly 2% of account sellers and just focus with the 3% of gold sellers. So divide 5.95 mil by 1.03. Using a calculator with the previous amount divided by 1.03 equals approximately 5.78 mil subs. Thats fairly decent. What is sad, MapleStory has upwards of about 25million accounts, but we all know what that really means :P. Absolutely nothing. Aion as someone had said has about 3mil in asia alone. Well I guess no one thought about who is actually playing? I would say because of Asia's cultural background dealing with MMOs that maybe, if were lucky, only 1 million of those subs are not being payed to play, are multiboxers, or some other type of person that doesn't count as a true player. Aion proabably has about 500k players planning on the launch. 100k of them actually looks at this forum :P. Popularity isn't a specific driven object. It goes up and down on a lot of factors that are a part of the game and not. Now the fabled WoW killer is fabled folks. WoW could only kill itself, no game will kill it. WoW is on it's path to many of the player types. PvP games are becoming more available, so you loose PvP players. Other open world MMOs are really creating events upon existing content along with new content. Vanilla WoW had some spark, and the lost it from there. The new expansion is their way of making a rememdy. They want to make the new content old content. Will it work? Who knows. By the time it's launched WoW could be dead. I don't see WoW living much longer after these next 2-3 years. A lot of companies are making MMOs and sooner or later one game we'll fulfill the throne as king of MMOs. Is that Aion? Who knows. Is that any other new MMO known about today? Who knows. Games come and go. Some are good some are bad. Lets hope Aion allows us to have fun and becomes very popular to grow and grow.
Just some clarifiactions,
WoW is no longer banned in China, they are online. Not everything is 100% in order and they are still in open beta, but it is only a matter of time.
Every game has bots and multi accounts, however, they all have to pay, saying they have x million subs, but only x amount pays is a contradiction.
I myself no longer believe the 3,5 million players figure, as NCSoft refuses to report their numbers since Q4-2008 ( before that, they did give good numbers ) and they did not want to acknowledge the 3,5 mill number. I hoped they would give the numbers in the Q2 - 2009 report, but they didn't.
I estimate the figure is currently around 2,5 million. ( and yes my site will get an update soon ).
If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site : http://mmodata.blogspot.be/ Favorite MMORPG's : DAoC pre ToA-NF, SWG Pre CU-NGE, EVE Online
Just some clarifiactions, WoW is no longer banned in China, they are online. Not everything is 100% in order and they are still in open beta, but it is only a matter of time. Every game has bots and multi accounts, however, they all have to pay, saying they have x million subs, but only x amount pays is a contradiction. I myself no longer believe the 3,5 million players figure, as NCSoft refuses to report their numbers since Q4-2008 ( before that, they did give good numbers ) and they did not want to acknowledge the 3,5 mill number. I hoped they would give the numbers in the Q2 - 2009 report, but they didn't. I estimate the figure is currently around 2,5 million. ( and yes my site will get an update soon ).
I can completely agree. I personally don't care about the amount of subs, as long as it's big to make the game keep living. The reason for the posts was to make people see that there is no reason to judge a game by it's subs, except for popularity.
Playing: Guild Wars and Exteel Loved: WoW, Guild Wars, FFXI, and Lineage 2 Liked: Exteel, WAR, and Lineage 1 Hated:City of Heroes, City of Villians, Matrix Online, Runescape, and D&D Online. Waiting For: Aion, Guild Wars 2, FFXIV, and SW:TOR
Comments
Was that thesis on subscription number breakdown necessary? Does it really matter that much?
Nope, but because people were arguing about it I threw my 2 cents in.
Playing: Guild Wars and Exteel
Loved: WoW, Guild Wars, FFXI, and Lineage 2
Liked: Exteel, WAR, and Lineage 1
Hated:City of Heroes, City of Villians, Matrix Online, Runescape, and D&D Online.
Waiting For: Aion, Guild Wars 2, FFXIV, and SW:TOR
To some yes to others no....i liked it though bcoz it gives me an idea of what ppl do and how a company "measures" their subs...
To some yes to others no....i liked it though bcoz it gives me an idea of what ppl do and how a company "measures" their subs...
Thanks lol.
Easier answer. Anybody paying for an account wether it be 1 or more is technically a subscriber. :P
Playing: Guild Wars and Exteel
Loved: WoW, Guild Wars, FFXI, and Lineage 2
Liked: Exteel, WAR, and Lineage 1
Hated:City of Heroes, City of Villians, Matrix Online, Runescape, and D&D Online.
Waiting For: Aion, Guild Wars 2, FFXIV, and SW:TOR
I just wated to say I am at least going to play the game and try it out. Popular or not, just something I am going to tryout.
For all the other ppl that have played or hope to play aion soon lets hope these r still the numbers3-4 years from now lol
How accurate can those numbers be though. I mean Earth Eternal is on the list, and the general consensus about that game, (myself included) is that it's horrible in almost every single aspect. Aside from people who will play a post-apocalyptic mmo whatever it looks like, I don't think it's going to do so hot.
aion is likely to be a reasonable success.
not a wow killer but its interesting and a nice change of genere
played:WoW and Eve off and on 5 years
Tried:CoH/V, PoTBS, War, TR, STO, FE
TOR is likely to rock
100% agree here.
WoW hit 5 million in it's first 6 months.
Alltern8 Blog | Star Wars Space Combat and The Old Republic | Cryptic Studios - A Pre Post-Mortem | Klingon Preview, STO's Monster Play
Yeah I agree, SW: TOR is going to have mucho players when it comes out. And the no grinding system is the most talked about so far.
I am not knocking Aion. I have played the Betas so far and I love it. It is just with gaming brow beating, Star Wars is beating it by far.
GlassEye
WoW hit 5 million in it's first 6 months.
This is an image from Joystiq: www.joystiq.com/2007/06/15/world-of-warcraft-player-activity-in-decline/
You'll note that WoW released in November of 2004. 6 months after that would be...5/2005. That's a little over 3 million. I'll give you close to 200,000 more than the graph allows for the internet cafe's in Korea but even that's a stretch for the time period. China hadn't yet come out but they had about 100k in beta around this time, but was released in June.
Not 5 million.
You have to be wary of the concerns now that SW:TOR will be nothing more than a glorified 2-player experience for most of it's leveling system. Obviously we will know more closer to release, but it's a valid concern that may alter how many people end up playing.
Oh jsus what a troll bait. The OP's logic is unfailing.
After the first free month is over, you can kiss the possibility of this ever being a wowkiller goodbye.
Just my quick thoughts..
Despite the huge following, the game has been released for about a year now on the other side of the world. I am pretty sure those folks have their upsets about a year ago with bugs and what nots, but thanks to them, we get a polished game this year, due to them.
Will North America Players take this game seriously, or will it just end up like a huge Asian grind game like the other popular Asian style games (Lineage 2, Silkroad Online, Cabal etc etc). I have played beta and was amazed myself, however I still have my doubts on the game to be enjoyable all the way thru end game, I hear the grind is pretty rough as you progress thru the levels and becomes a job.
By hey, I am being very bias due to the fact I love sandbox mmorpgs over theme park mmorpgs any day of the year.
My friends and guild are going into this game, I am just going to try out the Beta thru fileplanet and judge it myself once again.
Maybe I not seeing the same thing as them, but all gamers are different.
Yeah, I would say the best thing to do is give it a go. I hit 23 in beta and didn't have to grind at all, so I think if you just quest in the right places you're fine. Not to mention 1.5 introduces things like rested xp, pvp xp, and more quests.
Just some clarifiactions,
WoW is no longer banned in China, they are online. Not everything is 100% in order and they are still in open beta, but it is only a matter of time.
Every game has bots and multi accounts, however, they all have to pay, saying they have x million subs, but only x amount pays is a contradiction.
I myself no longer believe the 3,5 million players figure, as NCSoft refuses to report their numbers since Q4-2008 ( before that, they did give good numbers ) and they did not want to acknowledge the 3,5 mill number. I hoped they would give the numbers in the Q2 - 2009 report, but they didn't.
I estimate the figure is currently around 2,5 million. ( and yes my site will get an update soon
).
If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site :
http://mmodata.blogspot.be/
Favorite MMORPG's : DAoC pre ToA-NF, SWG Pre CU-NGE, EVE Online
I can completely agree. I personally don't care about the amount of subs, as long as it's big to make the game keep living. The reason for the posts was to make people see that there is no reason to judge a game by it's subs, except for popularity.
Playing: Guild Wars and Exteel
Loved: WoW, Guild Wars, FFXI, and Lineage 2
Liked: Exteel, WAR, and Lineage 1
Hated:City of Heroes, City of Villians, Matrix Online, Runescape, and D&D Online.
Waiting For: Aion, Guild Wars 2, FFXIV, and SW:TOR
You lost.