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MMORPGs are a niche market. Why?
Jimmy_Scythe
Member CommonPosts: 3,586
Let's get the ugly part out of the way first. MMORPGs have yet to see a single title that breaks the 1 million subscriber mark. And no, having had 1 million subscribers is not the same as having 1 million subscibers active. Meanwhile, single player RPGs have had 1 million plus hits since the CRPG has been invented. Non-mass online rpgs (like the NWN) have also sold very well and maintained a large community for several years. Look on Battle.net and you're sure to see all kinds of people still playing the first Diablo.
From a sheer numbers point of view, Mass-MOGs control a very small slice of the gaming revinue made each year. The overwhelming majority of gamers prefer Painkiller and Dungeon Siege to Everquest and Anarchy Online. Why is this? How do we expand the genre? Do we really want to expand the appeal of these games?
BTW, please refrain from smart ass answers like: "mainstream gamers are idiots" or "Why should we dumb down the game just to make it fun for every one?". Let's try to keep this one civil.
Comments
Wow is well on the way to that mark.
And don't forget about Lineage, Lineage 2, and Ragnorok, all of which have over a million I'm pretty sure. Not real sure about Lineage 2, but I know that Lineage and Ragnorok supposedly have many more then 1 million subscribers.
The mmo market is a HUGE market. and growing. As proof just look at the list of mmos today compared to only five years ago.
And it will continue to get much bigger. I honestly think this is where the future of gaming is... in mmo games no doubt. Other players simply provide an element that cannot be recreated no matter how good the AI is in a single player game.
- Zaxtor
maybe i can answer this since im not big into mmorpg's because of the magic/mystical/medievil/etc.... type games are a niche in themselves which dosent help, whatever final fantasy did to get such praise from such a wide demographic would need to happen for all the games.
montly fee's: i stumbled upon mco beta which was free so i got a chance to play it and when it was released i bought it and payed montlhly for it and i was very pleased with my moneys worth. people are scared of buying it if they don't know what the game is like, im playing AO now because its free for a year and again i would never had bought it and payed for a month just to see what its like to play, the first month free or whatever is not enough because you still have the game which would be harder to sell on since the market for mmorpgs is not as big as others. pre-ordering to get to play the beta is completely the same.
maybe a small demo with limited leveling and items would be able to draw in the masses.
people who have never payed a monthly fee will only know what a game with a monthly fee is like if they dive in and word of mouth is not enough to make people do that.
Lineage over 3 million users and Lineage 2 over 1.5 million.
Here is a link to that which has been stated.
http://www.mmogchart.com/
I stand corrected. Two games in Korea have broken the 1 million mark. This is still a small slice of the pie in comparison to say..... Counter-Strike or NWN. Plus, the asian market is a little different from the market that most Mass-MOGs are developed in. Maybe we could learn something from the way the Koreans are doing things ;-)
I played Ragnarok Online and thought it was a great game. Not $14 a month great, but great nontheless. Perhaps it's the focus on PvP combined with a simple control and interface scheme....
To be honest I wasn't really impressed with WoW at all. I think that the market is just so starved for half way decent MMORPGs that the level of mediocrity WoW brings to the table is rewarded with a huge subscriber list. I hate to bash Blizzards baby and all but, I just felt this game was so so at best and over hyped by my friends. I played it and wasn't impressed but, there's nothing better than WoW on the market right now and their subscriber list stands as proof. I'm pushing for DnL to come up and bring some new blood to the table.
"This one a long time have I watched. All his life has he looked away, to the horizon, to the future. Never his mind on where he was hurmph! What he was doing Hurmph! Excitement heh. Adventure heh! A jedi craves not these things. You are reckless."
-Yoda
brostyn wrote:
How is selling a million of a MMORPG title any different than selling 1 million of a single player RPG title? You're saying its cool for single player to hit this bar, but MMORPG must have 1mill subscribers at once. That makes no sense. There are MMORPGs that have 1 million plus hits, not at one time. You have double standards
It's different because the pricing model is different. When I buy a single player or Multi-player box game, I can play it for as long as I want and I only paid for it once. When I buy a MMORPG, I can only pay for it as long as I pay the monthly charges. Therefore, If 1 million people aren't paying the monthly fee, then 1 million aren't playing the game.
Having said that, not everyone that bought NWN is playing online or even still playing it. They will always have the option to play the game when they feel like it. Unlike an MMORPG where you not only have to feel like it but you also must be able to afford the fee.
It's very hard to determine how many people are actually playing "box" games online since there are several different ways to link up (gamespy, battle.net, direct connections....). It's impossible to see how many people are playing box games offline. It's easy to see how many people are playing MMORPGs. it's this transparency, along with the constant influx of cash from subscriptions, that make MMORPGs so attractive to game companies.
The numbers seem to point to a majority that just doesn't dig this kind of game. Not only are these games RPGs (a popular genre that doesn't really appeal to everyone) but they also require a large amount of time just to get into. All of us here know the flaws of these games so I don't need to enumerate them. We also know what makes them good. If MMORPGs are to grow to maturity we need ask just what it would take to bring the rest of the gaming community in with us.
Agreed. He ia also forgetting that even 500k of MMORPG subscibers will do many times more profit than 1 mil sold copies of NWN or whatever.. I have to remind you that MMORPG's will soon dominate the market and every company that canm afford to start a MMORPG will do it. The profits from that are really HUGE.. and i mean H !U !G !E! when i say HUGE.
Other games sell better becuz they have less long-time value. For example, PCConsole single player games, they take you wat, 10-60 hours to complete? N once youve done it, theres no real reason to do it again (unless its FFVII
)
So, you go off to buy ANOTHER single player game. Therefore each person who plays PCConsole single player games will play probably 15+ games in the time it takes a MMO player to get tired of 1 MMORPG.
MMOs are meant to last, they are meant to take a whole lot of your time so you stay at them for a while, paying monthly fees. So even tho there may be less ppl who actually buy the game compaired to single player games, theres more than enuff ppl to keep it running thru monthly fees.
N if theres 1mil+ subscribers to one MMO, it usually means theres not enuff variety for us MMO players.
And even a few companies that can't afford to make them have stepped up to the plate. Problem is.... There can be only one!!! Only one game can dominate the largest slice of the MMORPG community. All the rest will have to fight tooth and nail over the table scrapes. And as for the H-U-G-E profits, I think that's part of the problem. These companies are so focused on getting paid that they aren't really paying attention to making a quality product. I myself don't like being seen as an infinite well of cash by game companies. I'm pretty sure that other gamers feel the same way.
As a side note, I don't see games going the MMORPG route completely. The upkeep on these games can invoke heart attacks in most venture capitalists. Without the player base to support that infrastructure..... Well, you get the idea. More than likely, game companies are going to find new ways to use instancing and Peer to Peer networking for these kinds of games. This is a mixed blessing since it will cut down on overhead but allow anyone to set up a Mass-MOG on the cheap. MMORPGs 10 years from now will probbaly look like the MUD scene today.
Most online games will go to a subscription model that'll resemble Gamespy Arena. The RPG games will probably turn into a digital version of it's PnP counterpart. People will buy a basic set of a particular game world that includes all the prefabs and models for that game as well as a sample module and then just play with their friends via direct connections. Sort of like NWN but more general.
But that's just my opinion of where we're heading. You can take it or leave it.
That would suck for ppl like me. My RL n my gaming are completely different things. My friends do NOT play MMOs, or even kno how to work a computer. The closest theyve been to an MMO is probably an X-Box RPG. They dont even play online. Hell, most of them dont even have comps in their houses, n if they do, they use it for MSN Messenger only. -.-
So.. Games like that would be very much like playing a console game for me. I *like* real ppl. Even tho some of them are asses, I like having a community.
Not sure if anyone went into this, but there's one major issue with MMORPGs. You can't play more than one MMORPG simultaniously over a given period. Sure it's "possible", but it's not financially viable nor time-wise viable [especially in terms of developing a character].
Compare this to single player games. You can own Doom3 and Half Life 2 and Counterstrike AND Warcraft and Diablo II at the same time and play them "during the same period" without loosing money (you would've paid the box amount regardless of WHEN you bought it). Yes sure, you might run into some 'need-to-spend-more-time-in-game-X-to-get-character-better' issues, but you can FREELY distribute the time between the games.
You can't do this with MMORPGS (only free ones). It'll probably require a cancelation of subscription, which is probably a load of hassles and then you have to 'restart' when you decide 2 months later to 'continue' to play. I know of alot of people that 'waste' alot of money because they just let their subscription run on, even if they do not have time/motivation to play the game. Why? Well they don't want to loose their characters and they might want to return later on when they realised WoW might not be as great in the long run etc. So you can't switch easily and you get locked in because you spend a crapload of time on a game AND loads of expansions/subscription fees.
It is almost like signing a 24 month cellphone /ADSL/ISP contract vs buying a microwave. Which one will
you feel more comfortable with buying even if you don't use it everyday or might not like it?
So yea imho, the current business model of MMORPGs 'forces' it into a niche market. As someone mentioned above, there's the 'there can only be one' situation of companies trying to lock you into their game [making it impossible to play multiple MMORPGs at the same time or switching without feeling a big sense of wasted time].
There's always a huge debate about WoW vs EQ2 ...but imagine if it had a business model similar to Diablo 2/Counterstrike/NWN type of games... The debate will still exist but it will be similar to a "Half Life 2 vs Doom3" debate because YOU WOULD BE PLAYING BOTH. [or at least tried one and decided to stick with the other one].
That's why NWN would have much higher 'users', because it's not big decision. You buy the box you shelf it for a year and play it Xmas holidays, no worries, no risks. No way in hell you can do that with commericial MMORPGs.
Of course Anarchy Online went into the deep end into trying out a new business model, i for one hope it works because THAT is the model that will encourage people to be more selective and actually push them to just 'buy' the box without being forced to play it according to the company's time requirements.
There are of course the issue that, empty MMORPGs are dead MMORPGs, no matter how good the software or support is. I know for a fact i'll rather play a MMORPG with lots of players than one with limited players [unless it results in lag/lack of resources].
Hmmm.. True.. But still..
I change online friends as I change games. I have a short attention span, 6 months tops (unless new content is like "wow, I gotta stay for this"). I still have online friends playing Ragnarok Online ffs
So its not really possible for them to change as I change..
Actually, my only real expectations of games now are:
KSing is NOT possible
Looting is NOT possible
Lots of quests
Must have crafting
I think those things (well, first 2 things), force the community to be a lil better behaved. Take away the griefing n the bad community has no way to prove theyre bad community (cept maybe /shouts or similar types of ingame chat, which can usually be turned off).
Youre right tho, games with smaller communities usually are better for that reason. Bad players (griefers, etc), will not be grouped with anyone (cuz almost everyone in the server knos eachother somehow). Your accomplishments are actually acknowledged (thats a big one that you dont get in large-budget games). Having a chance to be the FIRST to do something at 1/500-1000 is more likely to happen than 15000+.
Im sorry, but I cant really agree with you on the pre-determined players, and NPCs. I join games to meet the community. Thats *probably* just me (it usually is), but I actually like diving into a bunch of kids to find a few maturer ppl^^
EDIT: Maturer is not a typo
I dont get along with "mature" ppl, in the sense of religious women with a zillion kids who jus donno when to tell their catholic husband to put a condom on, or uhhh.. That kind of ppl... Ahem. I mean, maturer as in more mature than the 12 yr olds.
Nahallac Silverwinds
Alter Destiny
Tunare - EQ
Nahallac Silverwinds
Alter Destiny
Tunare - EQ
Why is this?
Why do I still see floppy disks around? More complex, expansive and by most measures "better" mediums of data storage certainly exist, and have existed for quite some time. If a floppy drive is all you need, or in some cases all your familiar with than there is a significant chance that you'll continue to use them. Mac replaced floppy drives with zipdiskette drives in many of their basic computers six years ago and one of the biggest complaints they got (and still get) was that there was no 3.5inch floppy drive.
How do we expand the genre?
Why would I want to spend my time working towards expanding the market for a genre of games??? I don't mean to offend you but that seems pointless to me.
Do we really want to expand the appeal of these games?
??? Do you want to start a Political Action Committee to further the development of MMORPGs?
"Don't blame me, I voted for Badnarik."
http://www.lp.org
Still waiting for my next mmorpg...
A definition of 'munchkin', origin forgotten: "A player who, when told that the game will involve political intrigue in 15th-century Italy, insists on playing a Ninja." -isomeme
WARNING: Spelling and grammatical errors intentionally left in document to test for Anal Retentive Trolls.
"The key to wasting time is distraction. Without distractions it's too obvious to your brain that you're not doing anything with it, and you start to feel uncomfortable." - Paul Graham http://paulgraham.com/hs.html
dude, u have to read more. the gaming company are earning more than movie/ record company nowaday.
do u know why most movie are converted to game? because of it huge market.
Which FF Character Are You?
well the other factor is very loyal console game players.
Some even have there oldest consoles still plugged in and working.
Those gamers stand by nintendo, xbox or ps2 or game boy and refuse the idea of a continued monthly fee.
These gamers are a huge market that are paying for there games, buying them selling them trading them, trading them in. So those games have more then one use ( as percieved)
Most if not all mmorpgs cannot be returned. Once something gets on that no return list and or not "tradable " people go na not this one.
The pc is not the only gaming market out there nor are mmorpgs. For most gamers that is a good thing because every once in a while a great re playable title comes along that gives us hours and hours of fun .
For those that love the older game types find their little gems in older console generations, garage sales, and re playing the familar is a ball to them
It's a real simple answer.
The genre is just young, thats all. It hasn't come into its own and fleshed out yet, so it doesn't have as huge a market base, it also will take longer to come into its own due to the high risk involved ojn part of the financial things.
Hmmm.
You cannot compare total sales of 1 single player game to total the active subs of a MMORPG. they are too totally different areas. You must compare like for like, sales or active online users. As for the latter, well any rpg that allows limited online play for free will likely have more players due to the cost involved. This is especially true for a game like dungeon siege since very young children can easily play it and do not need mummy's CC to play online.
As for sales? Well, how many copies of Everquest have been sold? Total. With close to half a million subscribers playing for the last 5-6 years with many people coming and going I would say that probably 2 million copies have been sold already, including various multipacks. Then there are all the expansions, sold individually and as mutlipacks. I would say they have sold vastly more of these than any single player game.
And that's just 1 game.
As for niche market? Well computer rpgs have been around in graphic form since the early 80s; 20 years to build a fanbase of players of all ages since the games continue to appeal even to (and in some cases more so) the older player.
MMORPGS have been around for 10 years, but only in the last couple of years has the market begun to expand, by that I mean; games for people to play. And, are there actually MORE single players rpgs playable online, at this time, than MMORPGs? What I mean is, what about competition? What are the total number of single player online players compared to MMOs?
IMO these games are the future for the industry. You can download a single player game, or get a pirate copy, and rip off the publishers. (Same applies to music and DVDs)But with MMOs there's no point for many obvious reasons. MMOs have true shelf life, and can continually grow, and make money for the publisher long after initial release. And they if you look at the games on this site you will see some of the new things they are bringing to the genre, and this is just the beginning. Just how far do you expect single player games to improve in the future? aside from better graphics, which the best MMOs will match anyway.
MMORPGs are scary things for people who aren't familiar with them.
Many of the newer ones don't have demos, so in order to get in on a new game, you have to trust that it's worth a $50 up front fee, as well as $15 a month there after. There's other trust issues as well. Is there enough content to keep someone entertained for 50 levels, or does it involve mindlessly killing hundreds of the same monster to reach a new level, only to repeat with a different monster?
The reason single-player MMOs remain popular is that you are the hero. The world is changed by you. When you complete a quest, it can actually make a difference in the game world. MMOs can't have thousands of heros. If everyone is a hero, heroics become commonplace. In most MMOs, I cannot do anything that will permanently change the world because if I do, that quest isn't availble anymore for the next person.
A typical rule of thumb for single player games is 40-80 hours to chew through the content. Players easily put 10 times that amount into MMOs. Until MMO manufacturers can get the content up to a point where there's plenty to do for hundreds of hours of gameplay, the broad appeal isn't there.
Another thing scaring away potential gamers is stability of the servers. There's been too many horror stories about horrible launches, people paying for half finished games, etc. This has been getting better, but is still a problem that plagues the industry. In addition, the servers are a dependancy. What if the developer decides to pull the plug on a game (ex. Earth and Beyond). You are now suddenly stuck with a $50 game that is completely unplayable. That's too much risk for some gamers, and part of the reason I took a long time to dive into this genre.
The games that the developers are creating now pretty much give you a new life, an online life. You spend tons of time to create your character and molding him/her into something that you can be proud of. This is the problem for some people, mainly the console people.
I have been playing video games since Atari 2600, and I currently have all the gaming system's that are out.
For me I don't want an online life, I have a real life that I work at and I am proud of, why do I need another fake life with people I am never going to meet. When playing a game I want to have fun not live another life, or act like I'm from some other time and place.
How many people actually role play on the games that you are playing? Not many. Those are the people that these games are made for.
I would like to see games move towards a hybrid of single player games and MMO's.
Not like the Xboxlive has now, where the online portion of the game is just capture the flag or kill each other. Where you can play along side of another player on the adventure, and have fun.
The developers can develop linear games that take 2 or 3 months to complete, and are totally interactive with the community. You should be able to group, chat, maybe even craft, but once you hit the endgame there will be nothing else to do so you can move on to the next game.
The deveolpers could sell the game for $100 bucks plus $10 and month for the server access and garantee 400 hours of interactive fun.
I believe FFXI has broken 1 million mark whch is a japanese game.
And there was a thread with a link sometime ago which stated over 1.5million people have played EQ1 for over a time span of over 6 months.
If you relate to one person paying $13 a month for 6 months thats $73 .And the retail box plus expansions they spent .They have gotten over 4 times the amount you would get from a single RPG.
So yes there is big $$$$ in mmorpg.If a mmorpg can hit the 50k mark it seems the company is satified because 50k regulars is still $750k a month .
And considering that many mmroprg are well over 100k subs for years thats very good buisness.