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The next "big" thing has already released
-Zeno-
Member CommonPosts: 1,298
I want to say this here first, so 5 years from now when it actually happens, I can say I am the first person to say this.
Darkfall is the next big thing.
In 5 years it will have multiple servers and 5+ million players. The only thing that will hold this prediction back is if they do not release in Asia. That is the key element to success. Aion seems all the rage right now, but its still an EQ clone in the end. Darkfall, however, has broken that mold and the developers have shown 110% commitment to their game.
What other game can the above be said?
BTW - I was first! See you in 5 years.
The definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
Comments
Dated graphics, full loot, open PvP, stealable mounts and a lack of advertising make the odds of it ever getting over 300k subs. I wish it luck though, but your theory is more like a pipe dream.
First off, Darkfall is a wannabe hardcore PvP version of Ultima Online at release. That is nowhere near the "next big thing." Besides, it's a Western game. No way is it going to fare well in the Eastern market. Not to mention, I felt no sense of roleplay in that game other than some ganker.
Second off, Aion is NOT in any way, shape or form an Everquest clone. Aion is a Lineage clone if anything.
EvE still has the potential to be the next big thing. It gets major updates constantly. As much as I avoid the game, personally, it still has a lot of potential that's slowly being unleashed.
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While the OP may be way off on sub numbers in a few years, I have to say that if Darkfall keeps heading in the direction it's going, it's going to be the next big thing that's already out. If they keep working on PVE and keep adding to the sandbox elements, I can see the game getting very very big. Not 5mil big, but very big. I really believe that they started the game with PVP and are going to work towards PVE and more of a sandbox. If that's what they are doing, it's a very smart move because PVP is at least something to do at endgame, where as in Fallen Earth their forums are filled with people complaining there is NOTHING to do at endgame and the PVP is pointless.
Aion is a game all in of itself, but if anything it's a clone of all the F2P Asian games reworked so it can appeal to a broader market. Not the next big thing, I don't see the game growing from it's somewhat leveled out subs right now.
EVE's numbers will never get into the huge range, it simply has too many flaws for the general crowd. It's going to grow more and probably has the longest lifespan of any mmo ever made. But, it has too many things in it that alot of MMO players simply are not looking for.
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All i have to say is ROFLMAO .
Empty world,terrible animations,PVE players will not care at all about it,low tech game really i could see them adding things to make it better,but even then it would still be miles behind a good game,just because it is PVP oriented.
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Well, I could never go back to playing Darkfall after my 3 days in-game. It'll probably slowly become easier too (save for PvP).
Knowing my history with quitting WoW before things really skyrocketed and never believing that it could ever get that popular, who knows? Maybe my luck will be that I'm way off and DF is the next big thing.
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I see mortal online being the next big thing rather than darkfall, no flaming intended. I think both games when polished enough and have all features devs wanted, it would be amazing. Then again no i do not see 5mil+ subs, but somewhere along the lines of eve? yes definitely.
Not in the slightest likely, for a lot of different reasons.
I wish DF luck because any niche game like DF is and will always be will need it, just to survive 5 years from now.
As I am sure you are aware, 100% commitment is all that is possible. Like a few other hyped AV claims in the past I am sure this one of yours was just a typo and not an error in facts. /end sarcasm
Oh, and DF was claimed to be the "Next Big Thing" by legions of fanboys as long ago as 5 years before it was launched. So you fail there also.
I have a agree, i just subbed to Darkfall and even with limited playtime i am liking it alot, can progress on my own way etc.
Allready in a couple of playtime sessions i am startting to be independant in creating my own armor/weap/arrows etc so i dont "need" anyone, have a couple thousand gold, mounts and so much of everything that i am not afraid of losing it anymore, which is a stadium to get into.
i love it!
Darkfall will never hit the mainstream success of WoW. I play Darkfall and am a new player to the game, also my first real sandbox MMO ever.
It is a fantastic game and I would say out of any MMO I have played except for when I was infatuated with EQ, it is the one game that I really am excited to see what comes next. In a normal MMO I know what comes...level tiered areas to grind mobs in, new skinned weapons / armor and then some heavily scripted bosses who drop more gear.
In darkfall, due to the very nature of the game, the sky really feels like the limit and that is exciting!
Darkfall will continue to grow much as EvE has been doing, however if darkfall works on PvE, sandbox elements, social elements and so on, it will easily see a better growth rate then EvE.
I love Darkfall so far, it is really a great game but it will never hit those sort of giant numbers, which I am OK with. As long as we see steady growth and high retention rates I am more then happy with the game! If this happens and EvE has it we can hope to see more developers change it up a bit and begin to offer more then the normal fare I have been playing for over 10 years now.
As for Mortal, wait and see. If it did it all right it could take over darkfall as the defacto sanbox game, but so far I do not see that happening, one also must factor in system reqs. BIG reason why Warcraft does well is because it can run on anything so you not typical gamers can play it on their Walmart bought HP, or some kid can play it on his 6 year old PC that has been passed down from dad and given to him for his good grades and so on.
Anyways, one can dream but that is it, a dream. However Darkfall is a great game and I am glad I at long last tried the game out.
I agree. This game has the "POTENTIAL" to be the next big thing. The things they are adding in the future will make it only more appealing to casual players.
Currently:
PROS
1. Nearly no instances = everybody in the same place
2. No levels = less grind
3. No Classes = more Freedom
4. Clan Cities = Evolving world and deep immersion
5. No Auto-targetting = rewards player skill
6. Sounds are IMPORTANT = players use own skill to hide and hunt
CONS
1. Graphics not AAA = Some people will have to get used to GFX (though future expansions will change that over time)
2. Animations = Close-range fighting might require some getting used to
3. Full loot not for everyone = Risk might be too high for some
4. No summons/pets = Some people might be turned off from this
5. Not structured = Game might be too open-ended for some people's taste
6. Little diversity between players = Currently no skillcap/decay so all players become jack-of-all-trades
NOTE: A lot of the issues with the game can (and most likely will). Some of the other issues players might have are purely based on the gameplay mechanics of the game itself (as stated by the devs it is not for everyone).
AV with its bad image and history of poor business ethnics will drag this game forever. Much like poor SoE.
Being different does not mean being good. All we heard about DF is praise of it being different, but when pressed to demonstrate how good it is, all we get in return are claims that are not consistent with demonstrated facts.
As a new game, DF has a bad start. That is a very very bad start, few games recovered from that. It is remarkable AV is pumping so much effort in trying. With all due respects to such efforts, I still am not convinced that DF has demonstrated any major value to rank it alongside EvE, not yet.
As for 5million, I am ready to bet a dollar per sub. I will take a dollar per sub below 5million, and will shore up 1 dollar for every audited sub above 5million. Any takers?
Mortal has better sandbox features, but it is still an idea. They want to be closer to UO than DF could ever be. That being said, it is just an idea at the moment. An unrealized idea. It will need many many months or longer to get to the point of being a game to get even EVE's numbers. But in the end, it could be much better than DF could ever be in 5 years.
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I don't know if there are 5 million people out there looking for a game like Darkfall that don't currently have a game they are enjoying.
There could be 5 million people that like the concept of Darkfall, and would enjoy it. But drawing them away from their current interests to give DF a shot isn't easy or free.
A free trial would go a long way in drawing these people in that might not want to spend money to test a game when they are content where they are.
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If DF is lucky it will see numbers similar to EVEs'. But that is in no way what so ever a bad thing. Truly not.
There's obviously a lot of people who likes DF, and probably more that despise it. But that's just the way it was made. AV made a game for a smaller more hardcore audience, AV never tried to please the masses. And that's the reason to why DF is the success it actually became. That is also why it will never become the next big thing. DF has it's niche and it will stay there, if it doesn't decide to pull a SWG.
my predictions... in 3 years time.... (not 5 years)...
1. darkfall becomes f2p because its losing money due to lack of subs
or
2. darkfall being sold to another company because its losing money due to lack of subs
or
3. darkfall closed down because of large losses due of lack of subs
theres only 1 room in the world out there for a subscription based mmo and it was already taken by wow, and wow already barred the door, welded it shut, and ate the key... tiger woods becoming a priest would have a better chance than darkfall being "the next big thing"
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Mortal Online does it better.
I think DF will continue to grow slowly and perhaps be as big as EVE is now. I don't see it being as big as WoW or even hitting 1 million within 5 years as it is now. I may be wrong, but I doubt it. Depending on which direction they take the game, it could grow much faster.
Current: None
Played: WoW, CoX, SWG, LotRO, EVE, AoC, VG, CO, Ryzom, DF, WAR
Tried: Lineage2, Dofus, EQ2, CoS, FE, UO, Wurm, Wakfu
Future: The Repopulation, ArcheAge, Black Desert, EQN
Ok first of all its far to early to see if such a game would do well [as an example look at EvE it took over a year before it started making a profit]. Now to my main point as to why i feel that Darkfall has not broken the mould.
- Its based on EQ1.
- It relies on leveling skills just like certain other games.
- It has player made housing and cities very much like Star Wars Galaxy and EvE online.
- It is attempting to create a player run market [EvE has this].
- It is PvP focussed, many MMO's are also PvP focussed.
So hardly 'breaking the mould', rather its doing what Blizzard did and tried to re-invent other MMO features.
Another great example of Moore's Law. Give people access to that much space (developers and users alike) and they'll find uses for it that you can never imagine. "640K ought to be enough for anybody" - Bill Gates 1981
Uhhh Fallen Earth? You ain't gonna top the developers commitment there.....
This is amusing since I've been playing it recently and feel it's decidedly lackluster. Which is sad because FPS-aiming has so much potential for awesome. But it's like the devs thought their game would survive on FPS aiming alone and forgot to implement interesting abilities (or for that matter, a skill system where everyone doesn't end up eventually being messy hybrid classes with no distinctive uniqueness.)
Basically each time I log on I look forward more to the Gundam 00 episodes playing in the 2nd monitor than the game itself. (I quickly discovered that trying to play it without a video playing at the same time resulted in 10-20 min play sessions where I'd quit out of boredom quite rapidly.)
It's a game which makes me happy for the current direction of the MMORPG project I'm working on.
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Darkfall would be the hardcore substitute for wow if it was AAA (AKA developed by one of the big companies) , since it was developed by people who couldn't handle this project the game is very edgey and unpolished in the AAA way, so it will probably always remain for the small niche.
World of Warcraft is a proof that MMORPG quality should affect schedule/budget and not the other way around.
Let me get this straight. Darkfall has Open PvP AND FPS-like targeting? Both of those make lag differences a big deal, and together they make lag a massive deal. I don't see how a game that appears to be so lag sensitive (from what I read of it) could ever be a big thing in the MMO world. Add to that if you die you get all your stuff looted and that just seems to make me more certain of my conclusion. Don't get me wrong, I am sure there are people that like games like this. I just don't think this kind of game can ever be the "big thing"; too many people would be extremely disinterested in playing it.
About the lag, the whole graphic style in DF are there to minimize the lag.
The whole game is built around massive FPS battles without lag, and they have done it better then any othger MMO i have seen before.
And back to the topic, Darkfall have already passed all former critics. It was a hated vaporware project here on MMORPG.com
To bad some people still belive it is. For me, compared with all other MMOs been released recently....DF is the real next big thing! But as i said, people wont say it because then would all the former hate have been in vain. And people dont wanna feel they did hate something for years and then be wrong! So its better to keep hating it.
Thats why i belive DF will only get a couple of million players and not five million : )
Yep Darkfall is out now and is the next big thing!
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If it was developed by one of the big studios we wouldn't have the game we have with free for all lewt! They would care bear it up to get more subs.
Playing Darkfall EU1 Server