Easy, they will have 1 million forsure in the first month and 2 million in a matter of months.
and in the 3rd month, 500K and sinking like a stone due to player dissatisfaction with the content.
Sure, it might not happen, but other than WOW and a few others this has been the pattern the past 5 years and hoping for better isn't the way to bet.
It could happen.....but you never know.
I think if any game has a chance to retain subscribers, this game will be it, if nothing else then for the story aspect. Seeing a drop in subscribers is a current trend though. I can't say how the majority of players will play this game, but I know I'll be subscribed for the first couple months at least.
You people are just like a broken record, keep saying the same thing about all games. When this dont reach thiose numbers, it will be lest see what else we can move onto to make ourselves feel happy.
I don't know exactly what you're getting at here. You don't know what the future holds for TOR. The only person I can speak for is myself. I expressed an opinion, and what I felt, deal with it.
They're probably basing the numbers off the players subscribed to their website, which is composed of ghost accounts, second accounts after people forget their logins, haters that just go to trash their forums in favor of their game, trolls, etc.
They might get 2mil people pre ordering and buying the game, but that doesn't mean 2mil subscriptions or actual players, but they will get a god chunk of subscribers because it's Star Wars (sounds like before STO launched uh?) and because it's Bioware. Too bad they get the A sticker next to theirs as they have a horrible reputation when it comes to killing MMOs.
I just hope that with Bioware expecting numbers that big, that they are prepared for it with the servers and the infrastructure, having too many crashes, downtimes and massive lag, while being normal for recently launched MMO's, it won't be tolerated for too long by SW fans, and they have the experience of Mythic and the cash of EA to make sure it doesn't happen or to a very minimum.
considering its a star wars game with one of the best companies developing it .. i wouldnt even worry that they wont sell at least 2.5 mil boxes early.
bioware always delivered very good quality so we might see a 5+ mil in the first year.
keeping the subscribers is another story though, but personally im sure they can deliver plenty of content and high quality gameplay overtime.
considering its a star wars game with one of the best companies developing it .. i wouldnt even worry that they wont sell at least 2.5 mil boxes early. bioware always delivered very good quality so we might see a 5+ mil in the first year. keeping the subscribers is another story though, but personally im sure they can deliver plenty of content and high quality gameplay overtime. if they dont hit big numbers... who else will.
LOL see what i mean, now this guy jumping to 5 million. Whole site is delusional. How about just waiting for the game to release and then not getting overly excited like everyne did with WAR , and then totally nosediving.
I do agree however haveing 1 or whatever millions at release is different than actually retating those numbers, as Blizzard did with wow.
2 mil subs to break even. So, that insinuates that they need a least ONE month of 2 mil subs. Which also insinuates that they have 2 mil box sales. So ...
$50 (box sale) + $15 (one month) x 2mil = $130,000,000!!! To break even? Holy monstrous budget Batman
just based off box sales, it'd be $100mil, which seems more in-line IMO.
Not everyone "got excited" by WAR. WAR's developers thought their game was the best thing since sliced cheese, but anyone who played the beta knew different. AoC, same thing. Sure, those games appeal to a select audience of fans, but they both focused too much on PvP and not enough on making the game fun for the casual *gasp* carebear, which is, by and large, the vast majority of players out there.
Look how well DAO and Mass Effect 2 have done.... heck, look how well every bioware game has done. If they don't like it they don't release it (Star Craft Ghost anyone?). Sure, this project is "Too big to fail (to release)", but they have a budget that lets them say "Screw deadlines!" They don't have antsy investors breathing down their necks.
So, lets wait for the beta and see... SW:G's beta told me it was going to flop (but yet look at the very vocal crowd of people who think that hunk of junk was the best game ever pre-CU-pre-NGE).
considering how they designed the game to be casual friendly Like wow I can see them in the millions. Hell just because it was made by bioware they can get that many from name alone.
I wonder where their marketing firm NPD got that information from.I would say there is MAYBE 200k floaters right now,but there is definitely not 2 million floaters waiting to join a MMORPG and of those all would not jump in on the same MMO.
I think there was maybe 2 million because many left or are on exodus from Wow,but that was before some jumped into Aion and FE and a few other MMO's,some just look for f2p games.FFXIV will probably gather a few of the floaters,more so all the PVE type players.
I think this is the early HYPE up of the game and NPD will follow suite with some early chart topping sales that imo will be false.I fully expect to see some false [WOWish] adverstising early on to gather hype amongst the MANY gamers that only follow hype.
Usually the games that pop off the biggest numbers,are the ones that RMT see as a money maker,i don't see this game as being a RMT magnet.IMO it will be a lot closer to 500k subs,even with TRUE trekky fans SWG[SOE] in it's prime never garnered that .IDK though personally i think the new Star trek tv series is rubbish,but it stays on the air,so must be quite a few people watching it,maybe they figure most are gamers lol.
Never forget 3 mile Island and never trust a government official or company spokesman.
I wonder where their marketing firm NPD got that information from.I would say there is MAYBE 200k floaters right now,but there is definitely not 2 million floaters waiting to join a MMORPG and of those all would not jump in on the same MMO. I think there was maybe 2 million because many left or are on exodus from Wow,but that was before some jumped into Aion and FE and a few other MMO's,some just look for f2p games.FFXIV will probably gather a few of the floaters,more so all the PVE type players. I think this is the early HYPE up of the game and NPD will follow suite with some early chart topping sales that imo will be false.I fully expect to see some false [WOWish] adverstising early on to gather hype amongst the MANY gamers that only follow hype. Usually the games that pop off the biggest numbers,are the ones that RMT see as a money maker,i don't see this game as being a RMT magnet.IMO it will be a lot closer to 500k subs,even with TRUE trekky fans SWG[SOE] in it's prime never garnered that .IDK though personally i think the new Star trek tv series is rubbish,but it stays on the air,so must be quite a few people watching it,maybe they figure most are gamers lol.
What the hell does the Star trek tv series have to do with anything?
The fact that EA has made this information public suggests they are confident in their product. Whether or not it will happen is obviously impossible to tell. Bioware and the Star Wars name will make it popular and they probably will see over 1 mil in box sales, the subs will depend on the quality of the game though.
The fact that it's in the sci-fi genre instead of fantasy could mean that it will be fresh enough for players to stick with it even if it isn't initially as 'good' as whatever other game they come from. Considering that they're going to be launching just months after FFXIV and a possible Cata release though, they may have a lot of competition for those 2 mil players.
The game will have high initial box sales. But what's going to be the hook to keep players subbed? MMO's are different beasts in that the majority of a player's recreational videogame time is spent in the MMO. And its rare to be subscribed to multiple MMOs at once. MMOs simply consume most of your time.
So SW:TOR needs to have a compelling reason for players to stick around and be the game that they spend the most time on. Are they betting on the storyline? That after you've reached endgame in one class, you will go through and play the entire thing again on an alt with another classes storyline? No doubt that will be a major timesink, but will that be enough? What about a compelling endgame or PvP? What will the community, grouping, and social experience be like?
Ray Muzyka hinted that the game's business model might have some "twists" to it. Does that mean sub + microtransactions, or something else? If they come up with an innovative pricing scheme, that could help retain subs as well.
2 million subscribers is indeed ambitious. Call me skeptical that they will retain that number, nonetheless I'd like to see it happen.
Their ability to hit 2million subscribers will base based on so many factors it hurts to think of them all. I think that is a noble milestone but I'm also concerned how quickly they think they can get there. If the game shines through BETA and the buzz holds through the NDA drop, I can see them getting close to 1 million subs. Their ability to continue to grow will depend on sustained enthusiasm, robustness of end-game (so the people who get there don't cause 'doom and gloom'), content additions, and overall development responsiveness. I for one wish them well.
2 mil subs to break even. So, that insinuates that they need a least ONE month of 2 mil subs. Which also insinuates that they have 2 mil box sales. So ... $50 (box sale) + $15 (one month) x 2mil = $130,000,000!!! To break even? Holy monstrous budget Batman just based off box sales, it'd be $100mil, which seems more in-line IMO.
Technically they have to wait until the 2nd month to get the subscription money, as the first month is always free.
Although the predictions for the releases and sub bases for other big titles have been overinflated, my gut tells me this will be different. I just have this feeling that this game is going to be well received and will have a healthy sub rate with consistent growth. And just for the record, I wasn't one of those predicting huge numbers for AoC or WAR.
While I have been excited about the release of other MMOs in the past, there was always something with those games, at some stage of development, that made me cringe. Something I had read through this site or another, etc. made me second-guess the game. Knock on wood, but I haven't had that happen yet with SWTOR.
One thing to keep in mind also is that a lot more people are familiar with the IP than any of the other titles people want to compare this to. There will be a lot, I'm sure, that will stick with this game and overlook annoyances they wouldn't overlook in other games, simply because it is Star Wars.
2 million is not going to happen, why is no one realistic anymore?
It could very well have a million in sales the first month + preorders. A percentage of that, not even 50%, will stay and sub the next month and they will lose a certain percentage each month until it slows to what will be the true sub amount.
Unless you are financially vested in the game, why does it matter how many subs?
Because we gamers are insatiable when it comes to new content, and for the game to have a big expansion it needs to be making money. Ask the Vanguard players the effect that low subscriptions have on additional content.
EQ1, EQ2, SWG, SWTOR, GW, GW2 CoH, CoV, FFXI, WoW, CO, War,TSW and a slew of free trials and beta tests
Advertising: Hope they left room in their budget for TV spots and celebrity endorsements. They're going to need more than your usual gamer word of mouth, like WoW they are going to need to try to bring in players who've never played MMOs before but would be excited to be a part of a living Star Wars universe.
Polish: The game had better be ready for prime time by the time it hits the shelves. As we've seen in the past, no one wants to pay a subscription fee to beta test a game that was supposed to be good to go.
Technical Assistance: When the inevitable bottleneck occurs on launch day and they start getting complaints about "I can't connect!" and "Why won't the game run on my computer?" they are going to need to be able to resolve these issues quickly and with a professional yet friendly demeanor.
Customer Service: In the event of trolling douchebaggery, which is going to happen no matter how good the game is, they need smart and professional public relations staff to respond to forum trolling and shut it down quickly before it infects the general population.
All this is on top of making a good game with plenty of content. I believe that Bioware can make a good game, I just have my doubts that EA can manage and support it properly.
I think 2 million over time is very possible. I think people underestimate how large the Bioware fanbase really is.
Not to mention Star Wars. It's like a Reese's Peanut Butter Cup. Chocolate and peanut butter are both good on their own, but throw them together and it's beautiful harmony.
Fan predictions of potential subscriber numbers always make me laugh. I remember when DarkFall fans were predicting close to 1 million subscriptions within the first year. That worked out well.
Fan predictions of potential subscriber numbers always make me laugh. I remember when DarkFall fans were predicting close to 1 million subscriptions within the first year. That worked out well.
Ironic, reading about someone comparing a Star Wars/Bioware game to Darkfall, makes me laugh. There is no comparison, Darkfall was/is a no-name IP developed by 'who again'?
maybe they learned something from Warhammer? which I doubt very much. Its the same company that said Warhammer was doing good then fired the CEO afterward lol. SWTOR wont even have 250k sub if its just a single player mmo.
2 mil subs to break even. So, that insinuates that they need a least ONE month of 2 mil subs. Which also insinuates that they have 2 mil box sales. So ... $50 (box sale) + $15 (one month) x 2mil = $130,000,000!!! To break even? Holy monstrous budget Batman just based off box sales, it'd be $100mil, which seems more in-line IMO.
If they got all of the money from sales then that would be accurate. Publishers only get a fraction of the boxed sales and I think that percentage is around 30%. If that is the correct percentage then they are only seeing $15 from each sale. Of course they probably get more from the download sites like Steam and if they offer it directly for download from their own site they will get almost all the profit.
Comments
and in the 3rd month, 500K and sinking like a stone due to player dissatisfaction with the content.
Sure, it might not happen, but other than WOW and a few others this has been the pattern the past 5 years and hoping for better isn't the way to bet.
It could happen.....but you never know.
I think if any game has a chance to retain subscribers, this game will be it, if nothing else then for the story aspect. Seeing a drop in subscribers is a current trend though. I can't say how the majority of players will play this game, but I know I'll be subscribed for the first couple months at least.
You people are just like a broken record, keep saying the same thing about all games. When this dont reach thiose numbers, it will be lest see what else we can move onto to make ourselves feel happy.
I don't know exactly what you're getting at here. You don't know what the future holds for TOR. The only person I can speak for is myself. I expressed an opinion, and what I felt, deal with it.
If they edit it for release in the east with Korea/Chinese audiences they will fill that 2million+ subscriber quota EASILY
They're probably basing the numbers off the players subscribed to their website, which is composed of ghost accounts, second accounts after people forget their logins, haters that just go to trash their forums in favor of their game, trolls, etc.
They might get 2mil people pre ordering and buying the game, but that doesn't mean 2mil subscriptions or actual players, but they will get a god chunk of subscribers because it's Star Wars (sounds like before STO launched uh?) and because it's Bioware. Too bad they get the A sticker next to theirs as they have a horrible reputation when it comes to killing MMOs.
I just hope that with Bioware expecting numbers that big, that they are prepared for it with the servers and the infrastructure, having too many crashes, downtimes and massive lag, while being normal for recently launched MMO's, it won't be tolerated for too long by SW fans, and they have the experience of Mythic and the cash of EA to make sure it doesn't happen or to a very minimum.
considering its a star wars game with one of the best companies developing it .. i wouldnt even worry that they wont sell at least 2.5 mil boxes early.
bioware always delivered very good quality so we might see a 5+ mil in the first year.
keeping the subscribers is another story though, but personally im sure they can deliver plenty of content and high quality gameplay overtime.
if they dont hit big numbers... who else will.
LOL see what i mean, now this guy jumping to 5 million. Whole site is delusional. How about just waiting for the game to release and then not getting overly excited like everyne did with WAR , and then totally nosediving.
I do agree however haveing 1 or whatever millions at release is different than actually retating those numbers, as Blizzard did with wow.
2 mil subs to break even. So, that insinuates that they need a least ONE month of 2 mil subs. Which also insinuates that they have 2 mil box sales. So ...
$50 (box sale) + $15 (one month) x 2mil = $130,000,000!!! To break even? Holy monstrous budget Batman
just based off box sales, it'd be $100mil, which seems more in-line IMO.
Not everyone "got excited" by WAR. WAR's developers thought their game was the best thing since sliced cheese, but anyone who played the beta knew different. AoC, same thing. Sure, those games appeal to a select audience of fans, but they both focused too much on PvP and not enough on making the game fun for the casual *gasp* carebear, which is, by and large, the vast majority of players out there.
Look how well DAO and Mass Effect 2 have done.... heck, look how well every bioware game has done. If they don't like it they don't release it (Star Craft Ghost anyone?). Sure, this project is "Too big to fail (to release)", but they have a budget that lets them say "Screw deadlines!" They don't have antsy investors breathing down their necks.
So, lets wait for the beta and see... SW:G's beta told me it was going to flop (but yet look at the very vocal crowd of people who think that hunk of junk was the best game ever pre-CU-pre-NGE).
considering how they designed the game to be casual friendly Like wow I can see them in the millions. Hell just because it was made by bioware they can get that many from name alone.
I wonder where their marketing firm NPD got that information from.I would say there is MAYBE 200k floaters right now,but there is definitely not 2 million floaters waiting to join a MMORPG and of those all would not jump in on the same MMO.
I think there was maybe 2 million because many left or are on exodus from Wow,but that was before some jumped into Aion and FE and a few other MMO's,some just look for f2p games.FFXIV will probably gather a few of the floaters,more so all the PVE type players.
I think this is the early HYPE up of the game and NPD will follow suite with some early chart topping sales that imo will be false.I fully expect to see some false [WOWish] adverstising early on to gather hype amongst the MANY gamers that only follow hype.
Usually the games that pop off the biggest numbers,are the ones that RMT see as a money maker,i don't see this game as being a RMT magnet.IMO it will be a lot closer to 500k subs,even with TRUE trekky fans SWG[SOE] in it's prime never garnered that .IDK though personally i think the new Star trek tv series is rubbish,but it stays on the air,so must be quite a few people watching it,maybe they figure most are gamers lol.
Never forget 3 mile Island and never trust a government official or company spokesman.
What the hell does the Star trek tv series have to do with anything?
The fact that EA has made this information public suggests they are confident in their product. Whether or not it will happen is obviously impossible to tell. Bioware and the Star Wars name will make it popular and they probably will see over 1 mil in box sales, the subs will depend on the quality of the game though.
The fact that it's in the sci-fi genre instead of fantasy could mean that it will be fresh enough for players to stick with it even if it isn't initially as 'good' as whatever other game they come from. Considering that they're going to be launching just months after FFXIV and a possible Cata release though, they may have a lot of competition for those 2 mil players.
The game will have high initial box sales. But what's going to be the hook to keep players subbed? MMO's are different beasts in that the majority of a player's recreational videogame time is spent in the MMO. And its rare to be subscribed to multiple MMOs at once. MMOs simply consume most of your time.
So SW:TOR needs to have a compelling reason for players to stick around and be the game that they spend the most time on. Are they betting on the storyline? That after you've reached endgame in one class, you will go through and play the entire thing again on an alt with another classes storyline? No doubt that will be a major timesink, but will that be enough? What about a compelling endgame or PvP? What will the community, grouping, and social experience be like?
Ray Muzyka hinted that the game's business model might have some "twists" to it. Does that mean sub + microtransactions, or something else? If they come up with an innovative pricing scheme, that could help retain subs as well.
2 million subscribers is indeed ambitious. Call me skeptical that they will retain that number, nonetheless I'd like to see it happen.
Their ability to hit 2million subscribers will base based on so many factors it hurts to think of them all. I think that is a noble milestone but I'm also concerned how quickly they think they can get there. If the game shines through BETA and the buzz holds through the NDA drop, I can see them getting close to 1 million subs. Their ability to continue to grow will depend on sustained enthusiasm, robustness of end-game (so the people who get there don't cause 'doom and gloom'), content additions, and overall development responsiveness. I for one wish them well.
Technically they have to wait until the 2nd month to get the subscription money, as the first month is always free.
Although the predictions for the releases and sub bases for other big titles have been overinflated, my gut tells me this will be different. I just have this feeling that this game is going to be well received and will have a healthy sub rate with consistent growth. And just for the record, I wasn't one of those predicting huge numbers for AoC or WAR.
While I have been excited about the release of other MMOs in the past, there was always something with those games, at some stage of development, that made me cringe. Something I had read through this site or another, etc. made me second-guess the game. Knock on wood, but I haven't had that happen yet with SWTOR.
One thing to keep in mind also is that a lot more people are familiar with the IP than any of the other titles people want to compare this to. There will be a lot, I'm sure, that will stick with this game and overlook annoyances they wouldn't overlook in other games, simply because it is Star Wars.
Your fail comment, failed.
2 million is not going to happen, why is no one realistic anymore?
It could very well have a million in sales the first month + preorders. A percentage of that, not even 50%, will stay and sub the next month and they will lose a certain percentage each month until it slows to what will be the true sub amount.
Do people not understand the MMO sale cycle?
I think 2 million over time is very possible. I think people underestimate how large the Bioware fanbase really is.
Because we gamers are insatiable when it comes to new content, and for the game to have a big expansion it needs to be making money. Ask the Vanguard players the effect that low subscriptions have on additional content.
EQ1, EQ2, SWG, SWTOR, GW, GW2 CoH, CoV, FFXI, WoW, CO, War,TSW and a slew of free trials and beta tests
Advertising: Hope they left room in their budget for TV spots and celebrity endorsements. They're going to need more than your usual gamer word of mouth, like WoW they are going to need to try to bring in players who've never played MMOs before but would be excited to be a part of a living Star Wars universe.
Polish: The game had better be ready for prime time by the time it hits the shelves. As we've seen in the past, no one wants to pay a subscription fee to beta test a game that was supposed to be good to go.
Technical Assistance: When the inevitable bottleneck occurs on launch day and they start getting complaints about "I can't connect!" and "Why won't the game run on my computer?" they are going to need to be able to resolve these issues quickly and with a professional yet friendly demeanor.
Customer Service: In the event of trolling douchebaggery, which is going to happen no matter how good the game is, they need smart and professional public relations staff to respond to forum trolling and shut it down quickly before it infects the general population.
All this is on top of making a good game with plenty of content. I believe that Bioware can make a good game, I just have my doubts that EA can manage and support it properly.
Not to mention Star Wars. It's like a Reese's Peanut Butter Cup. Chocolate and peanut butter are both good on their own, but throw them together and it's beautiful harmony.
Your fail comment, failed.
Fan predictions of potential subscriber numbers always make me laugh. I remember when DarkFall fans were predicting close to 1 million subscriptions within the first year. That worked out well.
2 million subs is a little LOW for a BioWare game.
Please Google BioWare and see their list of games and pick your jaw off the floor. They are the Michael Jordan of video game companies.
Ironic, reading about someone comparing a Star Wars/Bioware game to Darkfall, makes me laugh. There is no comparison, Darkfall was/is a no-name IP developed by 'who again'?
Your fail comment, failed.
WAR was made by MYTHIC and NOT by BIOWARE!
Please don't compare the two.
If they got all of the money from sales then that would be accurate. Publishers only get a fraction of the boxed sales and I think that percentage is around 30%. If that is the correct percentage then they are only seeing $15 from each sale. Of course they probably get more from the download sites like Steam and if they offer it directly for download from their own site they will get almost all the profit.