Fan predictions of potential subscriber numbers always make me laugh. I remember when DarkFall fans were predicting close to 1 million subscriptions within the first year. That worked out well.
Darkfall was made by a small-budget no-name company.
SWTOR is being published by Electronic Arts and being made by BioWare
This is what i can't stand about MMO's. People start trying to project sales numbers and such. EA needs to just publish the game and not worry about building false hype on sub numbers. Bioware just needs to make a highly polished and content full game and people will subscribe, nothing more. It's such a shame that since WOW has so many millions playing worldwide, people and the companies involved in new games think thay have to have that many people to be a success. Let's remember it took Blizzard 5 yrs. and now going on 3 xpacs to get to the place they are at today.
One of the things i think people tend to forget is that mmo's need to be a marathon runner and not a sprinter. You release a solid product and over time, build on and add to it to make it grow.
Fan predictions of potential subscriber numbers always make me laugh. I remember when DarkFall fans were predicting close to 1 million subscriptions within the first year. That worked out well.
HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE difference there!
Pretty much, just look at the numbers: ME2 sold 2 million + in it's first week, Dragon Age sold 3 million in a few months.
And this is Star Wars, though subscription might tamper the sales a bit (not sure if it will be sub only though).
Feel free to use my referral link for SW:TOR if you want to test out the game. You'll get some special unlocks!
2 mil subs to break even. So, that insinuates that they need a least ONE month of 2 mil subs. Which also insinuates that they have 2 mil box sales. So ... $50 (box sale) + $15 (one month) x 2mil = $130,000,000!!! To break even? Holy monstrous budget Batman just based off box sales, it'd be $100mil, which seems more in-line IMO.
Technically they have to wait until the 2nd month to get the subscription money, as the first month is always free.
And of course, the stores that sell the games get a large chunk of that $50 bucks. So, box sales won't equal 50 x 2 million, more likely 25 x 2 million (which still isn't bad). Since EA is the publisher as wells owning the developer, all of that goes "home", but for most game companies, they sign on to a publisher, and the publisher makes the big bucks and the developer makes very little (same as the recording industry sadly, though that is changing with the internet letting bands distribute music without having to sign on to a publisher, which is really what's "killing" the record industry, not piracy).
I think if any game has a chance to retain subscribers, this game will be it, if nothing else then for the story aspect. Originally posted by MrcdesOwn: One thing to keep in mind also is that a lot more people are familiar with the IP
But how long will the story aspect last? The answer to that question will directly effect player retention. Most games you go through the story once (SWG - Legacy Quests) or a few times (TOR - answer different ways: good / evil, try different classes: if storyline changes with class) and then after that the story line is pretty much tapped out. LotRO is one of the few that is dragging the storyline out over a multi-year program on purpose (unlike SWG which dragged it out from pure slowness :-) ).
I also think that the storyline aspect will really only please? (for lack of a better word) those that know Bioware's KOTOR series. The SWG type fans that everyone seems to think will flock to TOR have a different story background. I'll use myself as an example. My SW is Ep 4 - 6. Don't care about 1-3 and don't know TOR. So while yes it is a Star Wars game, it's a niche Star Wars game.
Originally posted by Eric_W66
Think about it, 2 million subs could be 500,000 in the USA, 500,000 in the EU, and 1 million over the rest of the world (China? Korea?)
I don't believe the game will be that popular in the Asian market. Wasn't the Japan SWG server one of the first shut down? And that was Pre-NGE timeframe. Now I'm not saying all Asian accounts are gold farmers but isn't one of the things Bioware's talking about, are strong anti-gold farmer features from the start? If so that will cut into that Asian number you've thrown out.
I do think initial box sells will be big, but not retention. It should get a good solid player base number just like Aoc's 200K? SWG 100K? and if Bioware is looking at the long term than they should recoup all their dev costs. Now if they're looking to all retire to a tropical island within the first year ........... ?
I doubt they will have 2million. I'd go AoC release hype of 750k to a million boxes sold and then slump back to 400k or so subscribers that will slowly build again. Nothing really in the game released so far that would grab my attention as it looks very much like a solo Diablo2 style game.
2 million intial subscribers is possible, but maintaining the sub base in another. As long as they have lots of content they shoould be ok!
(BBBBBBBBBBWWWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH raises plunger in salute to Bioware!)
All my opinions are just that..opinions. If you like my opinions..coolness.If you dont like my opinion....I really dont care. Playing: ESO, WOT, Smite, and Marvel Heroes
2 million sounds like a lowball count. I would expect 5-8. I know people that have never played a MMO that will be playing this game. The scenario fits the stars are aligned the right company for the right game for the right time.
As long as we are talking possibilities, I guess any number of subscribers to SWTOR are possible…
As far as probabilities – My feeling is the game will be a moderate success – probably with a fairly strong first six months. After that I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a steady loss of subscribers as players fully experience a Star Wars game with entertaining story lines but no independent space flight/fighting and restricted exploration options.
I can see why long-time MMO players thought there would be a lot of sales for those other games, but the general public's awareness of Funcom, Conan, Mythic, and Warhammer is tiny. Whenever I read interviews predicting big subs for those games, I thought "I must be out of touch." I don't think it is right to compare TOR to those games, which were really ill-inconceived from an IP point of view, IMO the publishers thought that getting a fraction of subs from WoW would be child's play.
Game development these days seems to follow the "good enough" model too often, as in "it's good enough to be released." Rarely do we see games that are "the best that we could do, given unlimited resources." That's why I think TOR is a juggernaut.
I doubt they will have 2million. I'd go AoC release hype of 750k to a million boxes sold and then slump back to 400k or so subscribers that will slowly build again. Nothing really in the game released so far that would grab my attention as it looks very much like a solo Diablo2 style game.
nah, they will easily sell 2 million. This is EA. They will put a lot of money behind the marketing and anyone who is anyone who knows of star wars and is interested in playing a star wars game will try it.
It's retaining the subs that might be hard.
This is not to imply that they won't have the talent to do so but mmo gamers tend to be extremely fickle with many who have very particular ideas about how these games should be.
My guess is that at this point it is "in for a penny, in for a pound".
They have already spent a lot of money and time on it and knowing how important it is to get it right at launch, they are going to address most anything they can in order to retain players.
Like Skyrim? Need more content? Try my Skyrim mod "Godfred's Tomb."
This is a bioware game it will sell 2 million out of the gate easy if the game is as good as what we have come to expect from bioware it will do 4-5 million in a matter of months.
Let's look at the situation we have boiling, ignoring the "it's not a sandbox so how can it possibly be good?" people for a moment:
1. Highly recognized/awarded RPG-making company that is regarded in a positive light by the majority of gamers.
2. EA - big wallet.
3. Aforementioned company having help from Mythic, who has MMO experience (no, that doesn't mean it'll end up like WAR), though BioWare seems to be handling the design concepts of an MMO just fine on their own. Perhaps Mythic will advise them on the more technical aspects, or maybe they don't have any input at all.
4. The IP. Here, we can ignore the "it's not the original trilogy, so how can it possibly be good?" people for a moment. Star Wars is Star Wars, and the time period BioWare has chosen is largely unexplored, giving them plenty of creative freedom. Given that fact, mixed with the strong story-element and the fluidity ("dumbed-down...ness", as some call it) of gameplay, I think this will dethrone WoW as the next great gateway MMO. TOR will attract people who've never played an MMO simply because it's Star Wars, which is easily more popular than Warcraft ever was. Think about it: Thousands of gamers already in the genre are looking forward to it. What will happen when thousands more who've never played an MMO make it their first? 2 million? Very possible indeed.
I think 2 million subs a couple weeks after launch is realistic, and depending on how long the content is drawn out and how the end game is, I can see them gaining quite a bit more than that as well. I see this as actual competition to WoW.
Easy, they will have 1 million forsure in the first month and 2 million in a matter of months.
and in the 3rd month, 500K and sinking like a stone due to player dissatisfaction with the content.
Sure, it might not happen, but other than WOW and a few others this has been the pattern the past 5 years and hoping for better isn't the way to bet.
It could happen.....but you never know.
I think if any game has a chance to retain subscribers, this game will be it, if nothing else then for the story aspect. Seeing a drop in subscribers is a current trend though. I can't say how the majority of players will play this game, but I know I'll be subscribed for the first couple months at least.
You people are just like a broken record, keep saying the same thing about all games. When this dont reach thiose numbers, it will be lest see what else we can move onto to make ourselves feel happy.
I don't know exactly what you're getting at here. You don't know what the future holds for TOR. The only person I can speak for is myself. I expressed an opinion, and what I felt, deal with it.
Oh was that your Nostradamus moment, when you predicted if any game has a chance that this is it?. The nostradamus, future tellers on this site really crack me up. This whole post will be one big
"If any game has a chance to get millions of subscribers it will be TOR"
Months and years before Aoc came out same thing, same thing with war, same with Aion. The fortune tellers on this site like I said say anything to make themselves feel good. Then the classice one before launch will be
"Im going to be buying the lifetime subscription because this game will be epic"
then 2 months down the line
"Fuck you Ea, fuck you Bioware"
Madhatters on this site really are in Alice in wounderland mode.
I gotta call you out on one thing.
These are not Nostradamus posters. If they were like Nostradamus, they would be very very ambiguious and have tens to hundreds more predictions.
2MM subs is a HUGE overexpectation.
And 1MM subs to break even means the budget for the game was at least 50MM.
Personally I dont think they will get thier 2MM concurrent subs within 1 year.
The good news here is that this actually motivates them to have subs stick around for a while, as opposed to say Cryptic who seemed to go for the profit of box sales and the subs were gravy they didn't seem to care about.
Despite some of the things I hear (right or wrong) about this game that I don't like, if they are dev'ing with an eye towards long terms subs, that actually eases a lot of my concern.
The game will absolutely sell more than 2 million boxes. However, I highly doubt it will be able to retain 2 million subscribers for any length of time.
Until you cancel your subscription, you are only helping to continue the cycle of mediocrity.
maybe they learned something from Warhammer? which I doubt very much. Its the same company that said Warhammer was doing good then fired the CEO afterward lol. SWTOR wont even have 250k sub if its just a single player mmo.
Why are you trotting out that debunked and very dead horse of an argument? Did someone forget to feed the trolls under their rickety bridge?
considering its a star wars game with one of the best companies developing it .. i wouldnt even worry that they wont sell at least 2.5 mil boxes early. bioware always delivered very good quality so we might see a 5+ mil in the first year. keeping the subscribers is another story though, but personally im sure they can deliver plenty of content and high quality gameplay overtime. if they dont hit big numbers... who else will.
LOL see what i mean, now this guy jumping to 5 million. Whole site is delusional. How about just waiting for the game to release and then not getting overly excited like everyne did with WAR , and then totally nosediving.
I do agree however haveing 1 or whatever millions at release is different than actually retating those numbers, as Blizzard did with wow.
We are all playing the guessing game here, including you jimbobz. What we have that you don't is evidence of a company that tends to sell their games and sell them well. So, who are you gonna believe, Mr. Negative without any shred of proof or Mr. Fan who has company history to back up their educated guess?
As long as we are talking possibilities, I guess any number of subscribers to SWTOR are possible… As far as probabilities – My feeling is the game will be a moderate success – probably with a fairly strong first six months. After that I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a steady loss of subscribers as players fully experience a Star Wars game with entertaining story lines but no independent space flight/fighting and restricted exploration options. Time will tell which of us are right.
Yet another debunked and very dead horse argument. If you don't wanna believe the developers of the game when they say it will be an open world with all of the typical MMO elements on top of story, then you have reading comprehension issues or you're just an obnoxious troll.
Comments
Darkfall was made by a small-budget no-name company.
SWTOR is being published by Electronic Arts and being made by BioWare
HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE difference there!
This is what i can't stand about MMO's. People start trying to project sales numbers and such. EA needs to just publish the game and not worry about building false hype on sub numbers. Bioware just needs to make a highly polished and content full game and people will subscribe, nothing more. It's such a shame that since WOW has so many millions playing worldwide, people and the companies involved in new games think thay have to have that many people to be a success. Let's remember it took Blizzard 5 yrs. and now going on 3 xpacs to get to the place they are at today.
One of the things i think people tend to forget is that mmo's need to be a marathon runner and not a sprinter. You release a solid product and over time, build on and add to it to make it grow.
HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE difference there!
Pretty much, just look at the numbers: ME2 sold 2 million + in it's first week, Dragon Age sold 3 million in a few months.
And this is Star Wars, though subscription might tamper the sales a bit (not sure if it will be sub only though).
Feel free to use my referral link for SW:TOR if you want to test out the game. You'll get some special unlocks!
Technically they have to wait until the 2nd month to get the subscription money, as the first month is always free.
And of course, the stores that sell the games get a large chunk of that $50 bucks. So, box sales won't equal 50 x 2 million, more likely 25 x 2 million (which still isn't bad). Since EA is the publisher as wells owning the developer, all of that goes "home", but for most game companies, they sign on to a publisher, and the publisher makes the big bucks and the developer makes very little (same as the recording industry sadly, though that is changing with the internet letting bands distribute music without having to sign on to a publisher, which is really what's "killing" the record industry, not piracy).
But how long will the story aspect last? The answer to that question will directly effect player retention. Most games you go through the story once (SWG - Legacy Quests) or a few times (TOR - answer different ways: good / evil, try different classes: if storyline changes with class) and then after that the story line is pretty much tapped out. LotRO is one of the few that is dragging the storyline out over a multi-year program on purpose (unlike SWG which dragged it out from pure slowness :-) ).
I also think that the storyline aspect will really only please? (for lack of a better word) those that know Bioware's KOTOR series. The SWG type fans that everyone seems to think will flock to TOR have a different story background. I'll use myself as an example. My SW is Ep 4 - 6. Don't care about 1-3 and don't know TOR. So while yes it is a Star Wars game, it's a niche Star Wars game.
Originally posted by Eric_W66
Think about it, 2 million subs could be 500,000 in the USA, 500,000 in the EU, and 1 million over the rest of the world (China? Korea?)
I don't believe the game will be that popular in the Asian market. Wasn't the Japan SWG server one of the first shut down? And that was Pre-NGE timeframe. Now I'm not saying all Asian accounts are gold farmers but isn't one of the things Bioware's talking about, are strong anti-gold farmer features from the start? If so that will cut into that Asian number you've thrown out.
I do think initial box sells will be big, but not retention. It should get a good solid player base number just like Aoc's 200K? SWG 100K? and if Bioware is looking at the long term than they should recoup all their dev costs. Now if they're looking to all retire to a tropical island within the first year ........... ?
SWG (pre-cu) - AoC (pre-f2p) - PotBS (pre-boarder) - DDO - LotRO (pre-f2p) - STO (pre-f2p) - GnH (beta tester) - SWTOR - Neverwinter
I doubt they will have 2million. I'd go AoC release hype of 750k to a million boxes sold and then slump back to 400k or so subscribers that will slowly build again. Nothing really in the game released so far that would grab my attention as it looks very much like a solo Diablo2 style game.
2 million intial subscribers is possible, but maintaining the sub base in another. As long as they have lots of content they shoould be ok!
(BBBBBBBBBBWWWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH raises plunger in salute to Bioware!)
All my opinions are just that..opinions. If you like my opinions..coolness.If you dont like my opinion....I really dont care.
Playing: ESO, WOT, Smite, and Marvel Heroes
2 million sounds like a lowball count. I would expect 5-8. I know people that have never played a MMO that will be playing this game. The scenario fits the stars are aligned the right company for the right game for the right time.
As long as we are talking possibilities, I guess any number of subscribers to SWTOR are possible…
As far as probabilities – My feeling is the game will be a moderate success – probably with a fairly strong first six months. After that I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a steady loss of subscribers as players fully experience a Star Wars game with entertaining story lines but no independent space flight/fighting and restricted exploration options.
Time will tell which of us are right.
I can see why long-time MMO players thought there would be a lot of sales for those other games, but the general public's awareness of Funcom, Conan, Mythic, and Warhammer is tiny. Whenever I read interviews predicting big subs for those games, I thought "I must be out of touch." I don't think it is right to compare TOR to those games, which were really ill-inconceived from an IP point of view, IMO the publishers thought that getting a fraction of subs from WoW would be child's play.
Game development these days seems to follow the "good enough" model too often, as in "it's good enough to be released." Rarely do we see games that are "the best that we could do, given unlimited resources." That's why I think TOR is a juggernaut.
Cryptic is trying a Customer Development approach to MMO creation.
nah, they will easily sell 2 million. This is EA. They will put a lot of money behind the marketing and anyone who is anyone who knows of star wars and is interested in playing a star wars game will try it.
It's retaining the subs that might be hard.
This is not to imply that they won't have the talent to do so but mmo gamers tend to be extremely fickle with many who have very particular ideas about how these games should be.
My guess is that at this point it is "in for a penny, in for a pound".
They have already spent a lot of money and time on it and knowing how important it is to get it right at launch, they are going to address most anything they can in order to retain players.
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
This is a bioware game it will sell 2 million out of the gate easy if the game is as good as what we have come to expect from bioware it will do 4-5 million in a matter of months.
They better get ready to advertise the living shit out of TOR like Blizz does with WoW with tv commericals an such
Hell maybe they can get a south park episode, i couldnt tell ya how many people would ask me about WoW after that
Good advertising can go a long way.
Let's look at the situation we have boiling, ignoring the "it's not a sandbox so how can it possibly be good?" people for a moment:
1. Highly recognized/awarded RPG-making company that is regarded in a positive light by the majority of gamers.
2. EA - big wallet.
3. Aforementioned company having help from Mythic, who has MMO experience (no, that doesn't mean it'll end up like WAR), though BioWare seems to be handling the design concepts of an MMO just fine on their own. Perhaps Mythic will advise them on the more technical aspects, or maybe they don't have any input at all.
4. The IP. Here, we can ignore the "it's not the original trilogy, so how can it possibly be good?" people for a moment. Star Wars is Star Wars, and the time period BioWare has chosen is largely unexplored, giving them plenty of creative freedom. Given that fact, mixed with the strong story-element and the fluidity ("dumbed-down...ness", as some call it) of gameplay, I think this will dethrone WoW as the next great gateway MMO. TOR will attract people who've never played an MMO simply because it's Star Wars, which is easily more popular than Warcraft ever was. Think about it: Thousands of gamers already in the genre are looking forward to it. What will happen when thousands more who've never played an MMO make it their first? 2 million? Very possible indeed.
I think 2 million subs a couple weeks after launch is realistic, and depending on how long the content is drawn out and how the end game is, I can see them gaining quite a bit more than that as well. I see this as actual competition to WoW.
and in the 3rd month, 500K and sinking like a stone due to player dissatisfaction with the content.
Sure, it might not happen, but other than WOW and a few others this has been the pattern the past 5 years and hoping for better isn't the way to bet.
It could happen.....but you never know.
I think if any game has a chance to retain subscribers, this game will be it, if nothing else then for the story aspect. Seeing a drop in subscribers is a current trend though. I can't say how the majority of players will play this game, but I know I'll be subscribed for the first couple months at least.
You people are just like a broken record, keep saying the same thing about all games. When this dont reach thiose numbers, it will be lest see what else we can move onto to make ourselves feel happy.
I don't know exactly what you're getting at here. You don't know what the future holds for TOR. The only person I can speak for is myself. I expressed an opinion, and what I felt, deal with it.
Oh was that your Nostradamus moment, when you predicted if any game has a chance that this is it?. The nostradamus, future tellers on this site really crack me up. This whole post will be one big
"If any game has a chance to get millions of subscribers it will be TOR"
Months and years before Aoc came out same thing, same thing with war, same with Aion. The fortune tellers on this site like I said say anything to make themselves feel good. Then the classice one before launch will be
"Im going to be buying the lifetime subscription because this game will be epic"
then 2 months down the line
"Fuck you Ea, fuck you Bioware"
Madhatters on this site really are in Alice in wounderland mode.
I gotta call you out on one thing.
These are not Nostradamus posters. If they were like Nostradamus, they would be very very ambiguious and have tens to hundreds more predictions.
2MM subs is a HUGE overexpectation.
And 1MM subs to break even means the budget for the game was at least 50MM.
Personally I dont think they will get thier 2MM concurrent subs within 1 year.
The good news here is that this actually motivates them to have subs stick around for a while, as opposed to say Cryptic who seemed to go for the profit of box sales and the subs were gravy they didn't seem to care about.
Despite some of the things I hear (right or wrong) about this game that I don't like, if they are dev'ing with an eye towards long terms subs, that actually eases a lot of my concern.
The game will absolutely sell more than 2 million boxes. However, I highly doubt it will be able to retain 2 million subscribers for any length of time.
Until you cancel your subscription, you are only helping to continue the cycle of mediocrity.
They better have some plann on keeping 2 million players subscribed if they have no end game.
s
Why are you trotting out that debunked and very dead horse of an argument? Did someone forget to feed the trolls under their rickety bridge?
LOL see what i mean, now this guy jumping to 5 million. Whole site is delusional. How about just waiting for the game to release and then not getting overly excited like everyne did with WAR , and then totally nosediving.
I do agree however haveing 1 or whatever millions at release is different than actually retating those numbers, as Blizzard did with wow.
We are all playing the guessing game here, including you jimbobz. What we have that you don't is evidence of a company that tends to sell their games and sell them well. So, who are you gonna believe, Mr. Negative without any shred of proof or Mr. Fan who has company history to back up their educated guess?
Yet another debunked and very dead horse argument. If you don't wanna believe the developers of the game when they say it will be an open world with all of the typical MMO elements on top of story, then you have reading comprehension issues or you're just an obnoxious troll.
2 million? DId the original KOTOR even sell that many? Maybe EA needs to realize not every Star Wars fan likes 'The Old Republic' timeline.
I don't see any reason why they shouldn't get the people the expect. Especially if the game is as good as it looks.