If SW:TOR goes global then 2M would be a conservative estimate in my opinion, it may well have a huge box-sale then a drop off even more epic in scale than WAR saw, but this is in fact the norm for any game, nobody says how many "tried" EQ, WoW, DAoC, AC etc but quit, like any MMO they'll have to build, WoW didn't release to 11.5 Million, it had to build up to that with hard work, hundreds of updates, millions spent on advertising etc etc. In terms of IP, Star Wars arguably has a bigger pool than Warcraft could dream of, whether it will convert to gamers playing the MMO is the billion-dollar question.
im not sure the starwars IP is that popular - sure enough to the people who were around then (myself included) starwars was pretty amazing, even with a massive media advertising campaign, im not sure how successful the results will be, as i only see this as being another niche game, and there are quite a few of them about these days. i think the game will succeed, personally, but i doubt we'll ever be seeing the 'millions' of players, even SWG at its highpoint only had about 250k or so, and thats when there was far less competition for players attention. The worst possible scenario, is that SW:ToR, releases within 2 or 3 months of Cataclysm, as imo, that will be one expansion which will put a major dent in the player 'pool' for several months at the very least.
I honestly think they're having too high of an expectation. Although 2 million may seem pretty small compared to the large WoW, SWTOR seems to be a bit overhyped and so I have doubts. 2 million may be a possibility if it actually is as fun as they expect it to be for us.
The game will have a huge launch. And no doubt will be extremely popular for at least a short period of time.
SW: TOR might not become popular amongst hardcore raiders and such. WoW is bleeding that type players out as well...and has been since TBC. A game has to be challenging to keep those types in. I hope it will be challenging, but doubt it will have the feel of classic WoW raiding in it.
Those looking for more classic MMO that manage to hold their attention for years will probably be disappointed. I would be happy, if I get few months entertainment from it and later on come back for new content.
SW: TOR might become fairly popular amongst more casual crowd. Those who play for a bit when new content comes out and after play something else. I think and also hope that EA will reflect this in their subscription/RMT model (RMT here meaning purchase of new gaming content, not equipment).
The key to long term success is how social elements in the game have been handled. Every successful MMO started out with the need to interact with other players on regular basis and to form new friendships - to create not only tie to your avatar, but also to people you play with.
"The person who experiences greatness must have a feeling for the myth he is in."
Originally posted by Phry im not sure the starwars IP is that popular - sure enough to the people who were around then (myself included) starwars was pretty amazing, even with a massive media advertising campaign, im not sure how successful the results will be, as i only see this as being another niche game, and there are quite a few of them about these days. i think the game will succeed, personally, but i doubt we'll ever be seeing the 'millions' of players, even SWG at its highpoint only had about 250k or so, and thats when there was far less competition for players attention. The worst possible scenario, is that SW:ToR, releases within 2 or 3 months of Cataclysm, as imo, that will be one expansion which will put a major dent in the player 'pool' for several months at the very least.
Comparison with SWG doesn't really work here.
First of all have Bioware a few million fans, SOE never had that many.
Secondly have TOR longer time in development, larger team and a lot higher budget.
Thirdly is the timing different and so is the type of game.
That doesn't really mean that TOR will be as big as Wow or anything but the only common the game has with SWG is the IP and the fact that it is a online game.
The initiate playerbase do depend a lot on Cataclysm, my opinion is that Wow is slowling going downhill playerwise (it is really old now) and while Cataclysm might slow that down I doubt it will do better than the last Wow expansion: Getting some players back for a few months before numbers are slowly starting to dive again, and that is counting that no other game takes a big chunk out of the playerbase.
I don't beleive that Cataclysm really is the game TOr is competing with in the long run anyways, this is a MMO so we are really talking about many years here and I doubt wow will still be the largest game in 3-5 yearsm Blizzard themselves will release another game before that and there are many other upcomming AAA that will be released by then. Guildwars 2, FFXIV and maybe Copernicus and World of darkness online should not be counted out yet and the future is of course unknown, only that is certain is that even Zorndorff know that Wow can't be the largest MMO forever.
I beleive that TOr will have around a million western players and quite a few in Korea and Japan. 2-3 million worldwide is at least a possibility. 11 wont happen, the competition with upcomming MMOs are just too big for that. Wow have lived on the fact that no really good MMO has been released in a long time, the future hold a lot bigger competition.
As the card of Bioware's past success has been played now quite a few times, I think it is in order to point out the time it takes for them to release any DLC for their past games. For Dragon Age: Origins it took roughly five months although the game was delayed a number of times when already considered ready by the developer themselves. For Mass Effect 2 there are rumours that some more content would be available at around the end of this month, early next. With all the similar effects going on for their MMOG, and even more, can they promise a steady stream of content to satisfy the content-craving public?
Bioware has to take into account that for every decision of the story line that they will want to implent into the game they have to ask a permission from the owners of the IP, unlike with their recent single-player RPGs where they have themselves owned all of the intellectual property. Then you add up the simple time it takes to create needed graphics for the new areas, the storyline and then, once this is done, you can call in those voice actors of yours to do voiceovers for the quests. And all the sudden, how many months has it gone from the idea to the appearance of the actual content? If Blizzard, or any other major developer, is of any indication it will be months and months even for that regural, non-voice-acted content to appear.
And if you are about to "gravitate towards key roles in history-making events" as Bioware promises on their webpage, the content has to be diversified to all of the classes because otherwise, what on earth is the difference between a great story of a sith and a bounty hunter if the added content all converges towards the same goal. Therefore, I fear that Bioware has created themselves quite some artificial boundaries that will make their content developing rather hard post-release. If they cut short and create generic content for all classes, they will be blamed from sacrificing the idea they originally had for the game; if they aren't able to release content within three to four months from the game going live, they will have zounds of players moaning from lack of content.
And this all without taking into consideration the obvious balance tweaks, bug hunting, &c. I just feel that even with a massivly succesful release they will face a stern test when it comes to developing further content to the game. There is a plethora of things that one has to provide for a game to reach such a massive success as they fancy that aren't present for their single-player RPGs that are so often mirrored here as an indication for their future MMOG. There has to be PvP-content in various forms, most people demand also community events these days and a challenging PvE content for casuals and hardcore alike. Whilst sticking to the canon of Star Wars and providing a strong storyline. It will be interesting times and I hope but the best for Bioware and wish that they are succesful with their ambitious program.
If SW:TOR goes global then 2M would be a conservative estimate in my opinion, it may well have a huge box-sale then a drop off even more epic in scale than WAR saw, but this is in fact the norm for any game, nobody says how many "tried" EQ, WoW, DAoC, AC etc but quit, like any MMO they'll have to build, WoW didn't release to 11.5 Million, it had to build up to that with hard work, hundreds of updates, millions spent on advertising etc etc. In terms of IP, Star Wars arguably has a bigger pool than Warcraft could dream of, whether it will convert to gamers playing the MMO is the billion-dollar question.
Exactly. AoC and WAR each had more than a million people who tried it at launch, which means a million copies of those games sold, and that was entirely based on the hype of how the games were played (only a few hardcore fanbois were interested in the IPs). Star Trek had the same, and everyone said its gaming system was horrible, so its draw was entirely based on its IP. Star Wars, on the other hand, has arguably the world's largest IP, is being made by a company whose products are already huge within the gaming world, and has another year of hype before it sees the light of day. I can't even envision a scenario where this property *wouldn't* get more than 2 million subscribers on opening day, and possibly more like 3 or 4 million.
However, if Bioware isn't careful to provide the bandwidth for at least 5 million on opening day, half of those will leave in frustration after they fail to get connected to the game all day.
OK I pulled some quotes from the posts here because this is a point I think some of us are trying to make and yet either it's downplayed or ignored:
Quote - Star Wars is Star Wars, and the time period BioWare has chosen is largely unexplored, giving them plenty of creative freedom.
Replies - My SW is Ep 4 - 6. Don't care about 1-3 and don't know TOR. So while yes it is a Star Wars game, it's a niche Star Wars game.
- Maybe EA needs to realize not every Star Wars fan likes 'The Old Republic' timeline.
- im not sure the starwars IP is that popular - sure enough to the people who were around then (myself included) starwars was pretty amazing, even with a massive media advertising campaign, im not sure how successful the results will be, as i only see this as being another niche game,
Yes it technically is Star Wars, but does that mean you read every single Star Wars Book and Comic that comes out? From the Darth Bane one's, through the Vong War and now into the Post 'hope to break up the Jedi' ones? What about the early comic's with the 6?7? foot tall orange rabbit? after all Star Wars is Star Wars. Did you buy it or read them? Now some might, but I'm thinking that like all normal human beings you have likes and dislikes and will pick and choose based on those.
And then the 2nd part of your sentence '.... is largely unexplored, giving them plenty of creative freedom' could possible kill your Star Wars is Star Wars. Just like STO did when it was set in the future of ST, it allowed the dev's to move away from the establish history / canon. With STO it was one of the deal breakers since many didn't like where the story was taken to. Will that happen with TOR? Don't know, but it could just based on your words alone.
We'll ignore the "it's not the original trilogy, so how can it possibly be good?" people for a moment.
- But that's NOT what anyone's saying, no one has said it won't be good just because it isn't the original trilogy. They're say just because it's SW doesn't make it great. Case in point STO, just because it was ST didn't make it great. Just because it's D&D didn't make DDO great (and I happen to like the game).
And to all the 'it's a Bioware / EA game' ...... big deal. I just went and looked up the list of thier games and while I won't deny there are some big one's listed ......... I've never played a single one of them. Nothing to do with the companies, just none of those games interested me. And unless I'm really unique, I'm probably not the only one.
- There will be a lot, I'm sure, that will stick with this game and overlook annoyances they wouldn't overlook in other games, simply because it is Star Wars.
- Actually, I think it is because many gamers are conformists and want to make sure they are playing the most popular game....
If anything out of all the pages of posts here, I'd have to say these 2 statements are probably the most correct one's ever said.
maybe they learned something from Warhammer? which I doubt very much. Its the same company that said Warhammer was doing good then fired the CEO afterward lol. SWTOR wont even have 250k sub if its just a single player mmo.
How many times do you morons have to be told? I'ts NOT a single player mmo. 2 mil subs will be easily met. unlike warhammer, star wars actaully has a legitimate following. Not to mention all the people who will be completely fed up with STO by then who will jump on board. I can see this game taking the torch away from WoW at some point. WoW and SWOTR are both under the same umbrella now, with blizzard already making another mmo. WoW has to go away at some point.
I'm surprised so many people think this game can get to two million subscribers.Outside of World of Warcraft, not a single traditional western MMORPG has ever made it to 1 million subscribers. The largest one was Everquest, which was around 500k subscribers at its peak.
Why would SW:TOR hit 2 million subscribers? Its competing with World of Warcraft which shows no sign of dropping anytime soon. It also going to compete with new games such as Final Fantasy XIV.
I'm surprised so many people think this game can get to two million subscribers.Outside of World of Warcraft, not a single traditional western MMORPG has ever made it to 1 million subscribers. The largest one was Everquest, which was around 500k subscribers at its peak. Why would SW:TOR hit 2 million subscribers? Its competing with World of Warcraft which shows no sign of dropping anytime soon. It also going to compete with new games such as Final Fantasy XIV.
There is nothing stopping TOR from being able to hit the 2 million subscribers mark. Many BioWare games hit that mark on PC only. I think this is why a lot of hype is heading around the story aspect of TOR early on, as they're trying to bring awareness to non-MMO players as well.
I would say a safe bet would be that BioWare would keep 1/3rd of its launch subscription base. If the sales were on par with other BioWare game sales, then it is possible for them to break even at a base of 1 million subscribers.
We have no way of knowing at this time how this game will turn out, but if you could go back in time to the launch of WoW I don't think anyone said "Hey, this game will make 6M subs easy". If they had, we would be hearing all the same arguments.
I'm surprised so many people think this game can get to two million subscribers.Outside of World of Warcraft, not a single traditional western MMORPG has ever made it to 1 million subscribers. The largest one was Everquest, which was around 500k subscribers at its peak. Why would SW:TOR hit 2 million subscribers? Its competing with World of Warcraft which shows no sign of dropping anytime soon. It also going to compete with new games such as Final Fantasy XIV.
There is nothing stopping TOR from being able to hit the 2 million subscribers mark. Many BioWare games hit that mark on PC only. I think this is why a lot of hype is heading around the story aspect of TOR early on, as they're trying to bring awareness to non-MMO players as well.
I would say a safe bet would be that BioWare would keep 1/3rd of its launch subscription base. If the sales were on par with other BioWare game sales, then it is possible for them to break even at a base of 1 million subscribers.
We have no way of knowing at this time how this game will turn out, but if you could go back in time to the launch of WoW I don't think anyone said "Hey, this game will make 6M subs easy". If they had, we would be hearing all the same arguments.
Games sold is something very different from active subscribers in an online game. Square Enix has a better track record than Bioware yet not even Final Fantasy XI hit 1 million subscribers and thats a game released on 3 different platforms.
There is something stopping The Old Republic from getting 2 million subscribers, Its called World of Warcraft.
All of this is speculation and like you said, I don't think many predicted WoW would become as popular as it is. Still, with the current competitive market and considering how few mmorpgs actually get to 2 million subscribers, I think it is very unlikely.
I'm surprised so many people think this game can get to two million subscribers.Outside of World of Warcraft, not a single traditional western MMORPG has ever made it to 1 million subscribers. The largest one was Everquest, which was around 500k subscribers at its peak. Why would SW:TOR hit 2 million subscribers? Its competing with World of Warcraft which shows no sign of dropping anytime soon. It also going to compete with new games such as Final Fantasy XIV.
There is nothing stopping TOR from being able to hit the 2 million subscribers mark. Many BioWare games hit that mark on PC only. I think this is why a lot of hype is heading around the story aspect of TOR early on, as they're trying to bring awareness to non-MMO players as well.
I would say a safe bet would be that BioWare would keep 1/3rd of its launch subscription base. If the sales were on par with other BioWare game sales, then it is possible for them to break even at a base of 1 million subscribers.
We have no way of knowing at this time how this game will turn out, but if you could go back in time to the launch of WoW I don't think anyone said "Hey, this game will make 6M subs easy". If they had, we would be hearing all the same arguments.
Games sold is something very different from active subscribers in an online game. Square Enix has a better track record than Bioware yet not even Final Fantasy XI didn't hit 1 million subscribers and thats a game released on 3 different platforms.
There is something stopping The Old Republic from getting 2 million subscribers, Its called World of Warcraft.
All of this is speculation and like you said, I don't think many predicted WoW would become as popular as it is. Still, with the current competitive market and considering how few mmorpgs actually get to 2 million subscribers, I think it is very unlikely.
To overcome this Bioware has to create the immerse world from the movie series and allow people to freely interact with it.
I really don’t think this grand undertaking is what they have in mind, and that being the case, I think 2 mill subs is a fantasy.
It they did reach that, however, I don’t think it would hurt WOW nearly as much as the games currently having success in WOW’s shadow.
The question is where are these 2 million subs going to come from, I hardly imagine there is a couple of million people not playing anything right now waiting for SW:TOR so my guess is that they are expecting the bulk of them to come from other games predominantly WOW.
Now I am not a fan of WoW but Blizzard have done a great job of keeping an aging game growing and I suspect they wont let the release of SW:TOR go unchallenged so that they can wave goodbye to 20% of their player base.
Personally I think something has gone horribly wrong at the SW:TOR end of things if they need 1 million plus subs just to break even and this alone makes the game a very iffy prospect especially when EA are only talking about it being "possible" to achieve, how many MMO's out there are maintaining 1 million plus sub numbers?
I'm surprised so many people think this game can get to two million subscribers.Outside of World of Warcraft, not a single traditional western MMORPG has ever made it to 1 million subscribers. The largest one was Everquest, which was around 500k subscribers at its peak. Why would SW:TOR hit 2 million subscribers? Its competing with World of Warcraft which shows no sign of dropping anytime soon. It also going to compete with new games such as Final Fantasy XIV.
I'm surprised you think it can't. Star wars has the biggest and most loyal fanbase there is. Any retard knows that, except well...you. TOR has the best rpg development team, not to mention the backing of the biggest game company. Yes, warcraft will go on, but its popularity will soon wane as it keeps getting easier and becoming more of the baby game it is today.
Comments
im not sure the starwars IP is that popular - sure enough to the people who were around then (myself included) starwars was pretty amazing, even with a massive media advertising campaign, im not sure how successful the results will be, as i only see this as being another niche game, and there are quite a few of them about these days. i think the game will succeed, personally, but i doubt we'll ever be seeing the 'millions' of players, even SWG at its highpoint only had about 250k or so, and thats when there was far less competition for players attention. The worst possible scenario, is that SW:ToR, releases within 2 or 3 months of Cataclysm, as imo, that will be one expansion which will put a major dent in the player 'pool' for several months at the very least.
I honestly think they're having too high of an expectation. Although 2 million may seem pretty small compared to the large WoW, SWTOR seems to be a bit overhyped and so I have doubts. 2 million may be a possibility if it actually is as fun as they expect it to be for us.
The game will have a huge launch. And no doubt will be extremely popular for at least a short period of time.
SW: TOR might not become popular amongst hardcore raiders and such. WoW is bleeding that type players out as well...and has been since TBC. A game has to be challenging to keep those types in. I hope it will be challenging, but doubt it will have the feel of classic WoW raiding in it.
Those looking for more classic MMO that manage to hold their attention for years will probably be disappointed. I would be happy, if I get few months entertainment from it and later on come back for new content.
SW: TOR might become fairly popular amongst more casual crowd. Those who play for a bit when new content comes out and after play something else. I think and also hope that EA will reflect this in their subscription/RMT model (RMT here meaning purchase of new gaming content, not equipment).
The key to long term success is how social elements in the game have been handled. Every successful MMO started out with the need to interact with other players on regular basis and to form new friendships - to create not only tie to your avatar, but also to people you play with.
"The person who experiences greatness must have a feeling for the myth he is in."
Didn't they feel the same way about Sims Online before it launched? How did that work out?
Comparison with SWG doesn't really work here.
First of all have Bioware a few million fans, SOE never had that many.
Secondly have TOR longer time in development, larger team and a lot higher budget.
Thirdly is the timing different and so is the type of game.
That doesn't really mean that TOR will be as big as Wow or anything but the only common the game has with SWG is the IP and the fact that it is a online game.
The initiate playerbase do depend a lot on Cataclysm, my opinion is that Wow is slowling going downhill playerwise (it is really old now) and while Cataclysm might slow that down I doubt it will do better than the last Wow expansion: Getting some players back for a few months before numbers are slowly starting to dive again, and that is counting that no other game takes a big chunk out of the playerbase.
I don't beleive that Cataclysm really is the game TOr is competing with in the long run anyways, this is a MMO so we are really talking about many years here and I doubt wow will still be the largest game in 3-5 yearsm Blizzard themselves will release another game before that and there are many other upcomming AAA that will be released by then. Guildwars 2, FFXIV and maybe Copernicus and World of darkness online should not be counted out yet and the future is of course unknown, only that is certain is that even Zorndorff know that Wow can't be the largest MMO forever.
I beleive that TOr will have around a million western players and quite a few in Korea and Japan. 2-3 million worldwide is at least a possibility. 11 wont happen, the competition with upcomming MMOs are just too big for that. Wow have lived on the fact that no really good MMO has been released in a long time, the future hold a lot bigger competition.
As the card of Bioware's past success has been played now quite a few times, I think it is in order to point out the time it takes for them to release any DLC for their past games. For Dragon Age: Origins it took roughly five months although the game was delayed a number of times when already considered ready by the developer themselves. For Mass Effect 2 there are rumours that some more content would be available at around the end of this month, early next. With all the similar effects going on for their MMOG, and even more, can they promise a steady stream of content to satisfy the content-craving public?
Bioware has to take into account that for every decision of the story line that they will want to implent into the game they have to ask a permission from the owners of the IP, unlike with their recent single-player RPGs where they have themselves owned all of the intellectual property. Then you add up the simple time it takes to create needed graphics for the new areas, the storyline and then, once this is done, you can call in those voice actors of yours to do voiceovers for the quests. And all the sudden, how many months has it gone from the idea to the appearance of the actual content? If Blizzard, or any other major developer, is of any indication it will be months and months even for that regural, non-voice-acted content to appear.
And if you are about to "gravitate towards key roles in history-making events" as Bioware promises on their webpage, the content has to be diversified to all of the classes because otherwise, what on earth is the difference between a great story of a sith and a bounty hunter if the added content all converges towards the same goal. Therefore, I fear that Bioware has created themselves quite some artificial boundaries that will make their content developing rather hard post-release. If they cut short and create generic content for all classes, they will be blamed from sacrificing the idea they originally had for the game; if they aren't able to release content within three to four months from the game going live, they will have zounds of players moaning from lack of content.
And this all without taking into consideration the obvious balance tweaks, bug hunting, &c. I just feel that even with a massivly succesful release they will face a stern test when it comes to developing further content to the game. There is a plethora of things that one has to provide for a game to reach such a massive success as they fancy that aren't present for their single-player RPGs that are so often mirrored here as an indication for their future MMOG. There has to be PvP-content in various forms, most people demand also community events these days and a challenging PvE content for casuals and hardcore alike. Whilst sticking to the canon of Star Wars and providing a strong storyline. It will be interesting times and I hope but the best for Bioware and wish that they are succesful with their ambitious program.
Exactly. AoC and WAR each had more than a million people who tried it at launch, which means a million copies of those games sold, and that was entirely based on the hype of how the games were played (only a few hardcore fanbois were interested in the IPs). Star Trek had the same, and everyone said its gaming system was horrible, so its draw was entirely based on its IP. Star Wars, on the other hand, has arguably the world's largest IP, is being made by a company whose products are already huge within the gaming world, and has another year of hype before it sees the light of day. I can't even envision a scenario where this property *wouldn't* get more than 2 million subscribers on opening day, and possibly more like 3 or 4 million.
However, if Bioware isn't careful to provide the bandwidth for at least 5 million on opening day, half of those will leave in frustration after they fail to get connected to the game all day.
OK I pulled some quotes from the posts here because this is a point I think some of us are trying to make and yet either it's downplayed or ignored:
Quote - Star Wars is Star Wars, and the time period BioWare has chosen is largely unexplored, giving them plenty of creative freedom.
Replies - My SW is Ep 4 - 6. Don't care about 1-3 and don't know TOR. So while yes it is a Star Wars game, it's a niche Star Wars game.
- Maybe EA needs to realize not every Star Wars fan likes 'The Old Republic' timeline.
- im not sure the starwars IP is that popular - sure enough to the people who were around then (myself included) starwars was pretty amazing, even with a massive media advertising campaign, im not sure how successful the results will be, as i only see this as being another niche game,
Yes it technically is Star Wars, but does that mean you read every single Star Wars Book and Comic that comes out? From the Darth Bane one's, through the Vong War and now into the Post 'hope to break up the Jedi' ones? What about the early comic's with the 6?7? foot tall orange rabbit? after all Star Wars is Star Wars. Did you buy it or read them? Now some might, but I'm thinking that like all normal human beings you have likes and dislikes and will pick and choose based on those.
And then the 2nd part of your sentence '.... is largely unexplored, giving them plenty of creative freedom' could possible kill your Star Wars is Star Wars. Just like STO did when it was set in the future of ST, it allowed the dev's to move away from the establish history / canon. With STO it was one of the deal breakers since many didn't like where the story was taken to. Will that happen with TOR? Don't know, but it could just based on your words alone.
We'll ignore the "it's not the original trilogy, so how can it possibly be good?" people for a moment.
- But that's NOT what anyone's saying, no one has said it won't be good just because it isn't the original trilogy. They're say just because it's SW doesn't make it great. Case in point STO, just because it was ST didn't make it great. Just because it's D&D didn't make DDO great (and I happen to like the game).
And to all the 'it's a Bioware / EA game' ...... big deal. I just went and looked up the list of thier games and while I won't deny there are some big one's listed ......... I've never played a single one of them. Nothing to do with the companies, just none of those games interested me. And unless I'm really unique, I'm probably not the only one.
- There will be a lot, I'm sure, that will stick with this game and overlook annoyances they wouldn't overlook in other games, simply because it is Star Wars.
- Actually, I think it is because many gamers are conformists and want to make sure they are playing the most popular game....
If anything out of all the pages of posts here, I'd have to say these 2 statements are probably the most correct one's ever said.
SWG (pre-cu) - AoC (pre-f2p) - PotBS (pre-boarder) - DDO - LotRO (pre-f2p) - STO (pre-f2p) - GnH (beta tester) - SWTOR - Neverwinter
EA Rep Draws Shot gun
Shotgun Target foot
Fire: Y/N
we will see which button they press
Everything is possible, but the fact is that the game needs to be polished from the beginning.
Currently playing: N/A
Retired from: GW, WAR, Aion, LOTRO, Rift, SW:TOR, Vinductus
How many times do you morons have to be told? I'ts NOT a single player mmo. 2 mil subs will be easily met. unlike warhammer, star wars actaully has a legitimate following. Not to mention all the people who will be completely fed up with STO by then who will jump on board. I can see this game taking the torch away from WoW at some point. WoW and SWOTR are both under the same umbrella now, with blizzard already making another mmo. WoW has to go away at some point.
I'm surprised so many people think this game can get to two million subscribers.Outside of World of Warcraft, not a single traditional western MMORPG has ever made it to 1 million subscribers. The largest one was Everquest, which was around 500k subscribers at its peak.
Why would SW:TOR hit 2 million subscribers? Its competing with World of Warcraft which shows no sign of dropping anytime soon. It also going to compete with new games such as Final Fantasy XIV.
There is nothing stopping TOR from being able to hit the 2 million subscribers mark. Many BioWare games hit that mark on PC only. I think this is why a lot of hype is heading around the story aspect of TOR early on, as they're trying to bring awareness to non-MMO players as well.
I would say a safe bet would be that BioWare would keep 1/3rd of its launch subscription base. If the sales were on par with other BioWare game sales, then it is possible for them to break even at a base of 1 million subscribers.
We have no way of knowing at this time how this game will turn out, but if you could go back in time to the launch of WoW I don't think anyone said "Hey, this game will make 6M subs easy". If they had, we would be hearing all the same arguments.
There is nothing stopping TOR from being able to hit the 2 million subscribers mark. Many BioWare games hit that mark on PC only. I think this is why a lot of hype is heading around the story aspect of TOR early on, as they're trying to bring awareness to non-MMO players as well.
I would say a safe bet would be that BioWare would keep 1/3rd of its launch subscription base. If the sales were on par with other BioWare game sales, then it is possible for them to break even at a base of 1 million subscribers.
We have no way of knowing at this time how this game will turn out, but if you could go back in time to the launch of WoW I don't think anyone said "Hey, this game will make 6M subs easy". If they had, we would be hearing all the same arguments.
Games sold is something very different from active subscribers in an online game. Square Enix has a better track record than Bioware yet not even Final Fantasy XI hit 1 million subscribers and thats a game released on 3 different platforms.
There is something stopping The Old Republic from getting 2 million subscribers, Its called World of Warcraft.
All of this is speculation and like you said, I don't think many predicted WoW would become as popular as it is. Still, with the current competitive market and considering how few mmorpgs actually get to 2 million subscribers, I think it is very unlikely.
There is nothing stopping TOR from being able to hit the 2 million subscribers mark. Many BioWare games hit that mark on PC only. I think this is why a lot of hype is heading around the story aspect of TOR early on, as they're trying to bring awareness to non-MMO players as well.
I would say a safe bet would be that BioWare would keep 1/3rd of its launch subscription base. If the sales were on par with other BioWare game sales, then it is possible for them to break even at a base of 1 million subscribers.
We have no way of knowing at this time how this game will turn out, but if you could go back in time to the launch of WoW I don't think anyone said "Hey, this game will make 6M subs easy". If they had, we would be hearing all the same arguments.
Games sold is something very different from active subscribers in an online game. Square Enix has a better track record than Bioware yet not even Final Fantasy XI didn't hit 1 million subscribers and thats a game released on 3 different platforms.
There is something stopping The Old Republic from getting 2 million subscribers, Its called World of Warcraft.
All of this is speculation and like you said, I don't think many predicted WoW would become as popular as it is. Still, with the current competitive market and considering how few mmorpgs actually get to 2 million subscribers, I think it is very unlikely.
To overcome this Bioware has to create the immerse world from the movie series and allow people to freely interact with it.
I really don’t think this grand undertaking is what they have in mind, and that being the case, I think 2 mill subs is a fantasy.
It they did reach that, however, I don’t think it would hurt WOW nearly as much as the games currently having success in WOW’s shadow.
The question is where are these 2 million subs going to come from, I hardly imagine there is a couple of million people not playing anything right now waiting for SW:TOR so my guess is that they are expecting the bulk of them to come from other games predominantly WOW.
Now I am not a fan of WoW but Blizzard have done a great job of keeping an aging game growing and I suspect they wont let the release of SW:TOR go unchallenged so that they can wave goodbye to 20% of their player base.
Personally I think something has gone horribly wrong at the SW:TOR end of things if they need 1 million plus subs just to break even and this alone makes the game a very iffy prospect especially when EA are only talking about it being "possible" to achieve, how many MMO's out there are maintaining 1 million plus sub numbers?
I'm surprised you think it can't. Star wars has the biggest and most loyal fanbase there is. Any retard knows that, except well...you. TOR has the best rpg development team, not to mention the backing of the biggest game company. Yes, warcraft will go on, but its popularity will soon wane as it keeps getting easier and becoming more of the baby game it is today.
If the game is good 2 million will be easy. If its another disaster like AoC, WAR, VG, then it gets what it deserves.
I just hope it deviates enough from WoW to be interesting.