Actually Bliz is on the record as saying they want the WoW killer to be a Bliz product. Its better to lose $15 to yourself than someone else. This is where SOE has tried to go with EQ and EA flat out hasn't with UO.
On topic... Tera will not dent WoW. Tera isn't even the most exciting game coming out of Asia in the near future. SW:TOR and GW2 could dent WoW though. FF XIV, Tera, B&S, Rift, TSW not so much.
I agree.. especially given all of the new stuff being released about GW2 lately.
I'm still excited about Tera because of the combat system, and I will definitely be playing it, however I don't think it's going to pull a ton of subs away from WoW, at least not to the extent that GW2 could.
As for SW:TOR the jury's still out... I think it'll be cool but I don't think it will have quite the pull that GW2 will have.
Never argue with an idiot. He will drag you down to his level, then beat you with experience.
I made some researches myself and I have to say, it's very hard to figure out how much money has been spent on the initial development of a game. On top of that, subscription MMOs are and should be kept alive by continuous post-release development.
The 150 millions $USD comes from a mmorpg.com article that was published a month or two ago from an analysis of various press releases about how many box sales/subscriptions EA needs to break even. CLICKY
In the same article, Scott Jennings mention Blizzard cost around 80 millions in initial development. Though most of the press releases I saw were talking about 50-60 millions. Maybe he converted it in today's value (inflation)?
Most AAA mmorpg that were released since (WAR, AoC, Aion, LotRO) had an initial development cost between 25 and 40 millions $USD.
The next gen of AAA mmorpg seems to slowly catch up in terms of initial development cost, with SW:TOR being a huge exception. 2011 will be a very interesing year for MMOGs
Tera looks good but not great, I've seen my share of eye candy based games fail to deliver stiff competition for WoW (AoC, Aion, WAR, Vangard.... et cetera). I've also seen games with interesting gameplay elements flop (Spellborn, DDO, Fallen Earth...et cetera)
I'm personally pass the stage of something trying to directly compete with WoW or boasting to replace it. And let me tell you, you'd do well to follow suit. Nothing worse than charging yourself up to stand behind a MMO and have it to fail to catch on with droves of players because they don't share your viewpoints on what makes it worthy of their cash.
And when you repeat this process over and over again and expect a different outcome, well you know what that clinically makes you right? Besides, getting a majority of the people on this website to hold hands and praise the coming of "the next big MMO" or "the fall of WoW" becomes harder and harder to do with each release of a new MMO. But I still see a few desperate souls clinging to their belief that we are one step closer to the perfect mmo to kill another mmo........HAHAHAHHAHAHAHA
er..um..sorry about that, it just gets funnier and funnier as time marches on.
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
Originally posted by Emhster The 150 millions $USD comes from a mmorpg.com article that was published a month or two ago from an analysis of various press releases about how many box sales/subscriptions EA needs to break even.
That article was complete fail because the writer used flawed logic to come to that conclusion which unfortunately has spread around this site like a virus. Did those 1 million subscribers all get the game box free? Does the "break even" point include things like servers, CS, advertising, distribution, etc.?
Tera looks good and the gameplay will draw people but as seen recently with Aion: lack of end game and grind can really hurt retention.
If Tera's developers dont try and truly "westernize"(meaning, not NCSoft's idea of westernization) the game then it will go on the trash heap with the rest.
Originally posted by Xiaoki Originally posted by EmhsterThe 150 millions $USD comes from a mmorpg.com article that was published a month or two ago from an analysis of various press releases about how many box sales/subscriptions EA needs to break even.
That article was complete fail because the writer used flawed logic to come to that conclusion which unfortunately has spread around this site like a virus. Did those 1 million subscribers all get the game box free? Does the "break even" point include things like servers, CS, advertising, distribution, etc.?
Tera looks good and the gameplay will draw people but as seen recently with Aion: lack of end game and grind can really hurt retention.
If Tera's developers dont try and truly "westernize"(meaning, not NCSoft's idea of westernization) the game then it will go on the trash heap with the rest.
Yeah. Its more than just the graphics too. Anyone that played Aion remember 'female youth voice?' Apparently, female warriors in Korea make sounds a lot like sex when fighting.
"Never met a pack of humans that were any different. Look at the idiots that get elected every couple of years. You really consider those guys more mature than us? The only difference between us and them is, when they gank some noobs and take their stuff, the noobs actually die." - Madimorga
WAR was more expensive at launch than Wow and still it didn't became a huge hit. Guildwars (and EQ for that matter) was made on a very tight budget and still sold pretty good.
Having a good budget helps but you will not get a hit MMO just because of that. There is so much more.
I have my doubts about TERA in the west. Asian games never been that popular in the west, most westerners like a different kind of gameplay. This does not include Japanese games (like Final fantasy), japs usually think more like westerners than Chinese or Koreans.
But Wow is still getting a lot of competition next year. TOR, GW2, WoDO, FFXIV and a few other interesting games are releasing too. They have enough money and some really good devs which is as important.
I'm not quite so sure what is so special about this game ? It could be a 44 million dollar asian grindfest. I'm not saying it is bad, I'm just saying that it is alot of money for this kind of game.
WAR was more expensive at launch than Wow and still it didn't became a huge hit. Guildwars (and EQ for that matter) was made on a very tight budget and still sold pretty good.
Does that include the money invested in the initial development from Climax Online?
Either way, you can use his math to get the est. $150MM for development cost of SW:TOR or you can go another route:
$50 box cost and $15/mo sub.
EA is on record stating they need 1 million (1,000,000) subscribers to break even.
To recover cost in 1 month, development cost would be $65MM. To recover cost in 6 months, development cost would be $140MM. To recover cost in 1 year, development cost would be $230MM.
$150MM is not an unreasonable estimate when EA gave away 1MM subs needed.
But that doesn't say anything about voice acting being so costly. Where did that huge amount for voice acting come from? I'm starting to believe more and more it's just some unfounded rumour that started circulating until people went repeating it.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Tera is just another fantasy grinder and isn't going to do anything to the market.
The game that will compete with WoW will not be a traditional subscription or free to play MMO, it will be a social based MMORPG played from a social site with people you know.
You may think I'm on crack but social games are doing over 100 times the business MMO's are and many devs (including Lord Brit) are already working on projects. (ok, I'm putting away my crystal ball and taking another sip from the bottle of Jack...mark my words youngin!)
You missed the massive point Richard made in the Massively podcast... it'll still be a AAA MMO and not the what he considers garbage available today in the social space. Ie it'll be UO2 played at the beginning for free with your friends that spins up into a cash cow, not Farmville redux.
He also said that in the social market place, the theme park level based EQ rev X MMO will out sell the open world sandbox but he's still only interested in making sandbox games.
I recall seeing that. But most of the money went to complete redesigns and code that was completely chucked. Very little of that money actually made it to the finished product.
After playing AoC and its first 20 levels, I don't believe in voice acting to "save the industry".
Adding cut scenes and voice acting in every quest is a waste of time and money. People don't play mmorpg's to speak with NPC's.
I am very pessimistic about this. People are too lazy to read 6 lines of text, they will not listen to 6 minutes of speech.
I can see the future as bland as ever. FFXIV btw has a terri bad slow combat system in its beta. (see beta forums).
I think we will have to wait for the next MMo from Blizzard.
I am afraid these new MMo's will be dead on arrival.
And I have this nagging feeling that compared to the new "more casual" Blizzard project, WOW could be considered extremely difficult and hardcore.
Perhaps paid MMORPG's are dead after all. It wouldn't surprise me one bit.
Its embarrassing when an NPC compliments you in an MMo, the only relevant, cool and epic things come from players whispering you Grtz, mate, we did it. copyright Pilnkplonk
Originally posted by Miffy It'll never be as popular over here in the west because of it's Japanese art style and character models. Also Japanese games always have really backwards and dated gameplay and they often have the worst online service ever.
Totally agree with all points here. I wouldn't touch it.
One of WOW's successful features is that its art style is generally acceptable by all global regional players; it isn't too Asian and it isn't too western and it isn't trying to be too realistic.
Edit: ps - > money does not always equal > quality. As many have shown with examples in this thread, there are some real train wrecks of titles that spent A LOT more than some big successes.
I don't think Tera will even put a dent in WoW's subscribers. It's going to be just like Aion and Lineage II, it will garner a lot of initial subscribers in both the East and West (especially the East) and after a few months when people realize that the game will likely be another grindfest (there is no indication it won't be) most of the subscribers here in the West will move on to a different game. Aion never really pulled many subscribers from WoW either and Tera is going to be the same, because WoW appeals to all types of gamers including the very casual and these eastern games are being marketted towards the typical Korean gamer who is much more devoted to gaming as a hobby typically than a typical Western gamer. In order to break the cultural gap an Eastern game is going to have to market towards the West from the start, which isn't likely going to happen.
I'm not saying Tera won't do well. It will likely make it's profit and be a highly successful MMO, even if it's just picked up as a short fad (it probably will be more than that in the east). A production and marketing budget can only go so far though, and I doubt it will get nearly as much marketing attention here in the US as WoW does with it's various commericals on TV and ads across the internet (as well as word of mouth, how many non-gamers do you think will actually buy Tera and spread the word about it?).
SW:ToR is the only game I forsee being a competitor to WoW as it seems like the game is meant to appeal to every type of gamer just like WoW - from the most casual to the most hardcore and everywhere in between, plus unlike the anime style Eastern graphics it's Star Wars and appeals to nearly every culture in any developed country worldwide. I don't know if Bioware will actually pull it off and manage to take a good share of subscribers from WoW, but that remains to be seen. I'm not saying this as a Bioware fanboy either, I've already came to the conclusion that SW:ToR won't appeal to me and don't plan on purchasing it (though I might check out the Open Beta).
There are several promising MMOs in the works too, though I also doubt they will have any effects on WoW subs. Still it's looking like late this year and next year is going to be a great year for MMOs. Not only Tera and SW:ToR, but FFXIV, The Secret World, Earthrise, Guild Wars 2, and Rifts: Telara are going to be released in the near future. Should be a winning year for any type of MMO gamer.
I also think WoW has just about reached it's peak and ought to start declining soon just like all previous MMOs. I know even the most diehard WoW fans who still play. It's only a matter of time before you see a decline. I'm sure Blizzard will start hyping their next big MMO once this starts. We already know one is in the works.
The Star Wars Generation is what? In their 30's and over? Will it appeal to younger folk as much as generic fantasy? I don't the the last 3 or 4 films did much to help the Star Wars franchise, certainly not as much as the first films.
The average MMO gamer is about 30 now.
TOR will attract Star Wars fans. It will attract MMO fans. With full voice acting and the Bioware label, it will attract RPG fans. The low system requirements won't exclude many people. The big question is whether it'll be good enough to retain all of the above for a significant amount of time. Impossible to predict, but I would say that I consider TOR to be entering the market in a very, very strong position. Perhaps as strong as WoW.
The Star Wars Generation is what? In their 30's and over? Will it appeal to younger folk as much as generic fantasy? I don't the the last 3 or 4 films did much to help the Star Wars franchise, certainly not as much as the first films.
The average MMO gamer is about 30 now.
TOR will attract Star Wars fans. It will attract MMO fans. With full voice acting and the Bioware label, it will attract RPG fans. The low system requirements won't exclude many people. The big question is whether it'll be good enough to retain all of the above for a significant amount of time. Impossible to predict, but I would say that I consider TOR to be entering the market in a very, very strong position. Perhaps as strong as WoW.
My problem with SW:ToR is Lucas has full control of this one. If you think he doesn't you're crazy. Because of this I cringe at the thought of him even being a part of this after we got episodes 6, 1-2 and 3. Seriously think about that for a sec. Let it sink in.
All we hear from the developers is how iconic this game is and how the combat is(and to be honest the combat looks terrible) we still know nothing really about the size of the worlds, nothing about the MMO aspects or game play we see in other MMO's. I am holding off on this one until I see some solid evidence this game isn't nothing more than Guild Wars in space - without the space! LOL!
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Nothing GW is a fun game to a point. I am hoping GW2 fixes GW's failings. ^_^
I think it will
But yeah, however admirable and talented Bioware dev teams may be, I also need some more convincing. GW2 and TSW already released info bits that have me to the point that I'm looking forward to learn more about it, but ToR still hasn't got me enthusiastic yet. For that, I need to see or hear more of its content and gameplay.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Comments
I agree.. especially given all of the new stuff being released about GW2 lately.
I'm still excited about Tera because of the combat system, and I will definitely be playing it, however I don't think it's going to pull a ton of subs away from WoW, at least not to the extent that GW2 could.
As for SW:TOR the jury's still out... I think it'll be cool but I don't think it will have quite the pull that GW2 will have.
Never argue with an idiot. He will drag you down to his level, then beat you with experience.
I made some researches myself and I have to say, it's very hard to figure out how much money has been spent on the initial development of a game. On top of that, subscription MMOs are and should be kept alive by continuous post-release development.
The 150 millions $USD comes from a mmorpg.com article that was published a month or two ago from an analysis of various press releases about how many box sales/subscriptions EA needs to break even. CLICKY
In the same article, Scott Jennings mention Blizzard cost around 80 millions in initial development. Though most of the press releases I saw were talking about 50-60 millions. Maybe he converted it in today's value (inflation)?
Most AAA mmorpg that were released since (WAR, AoC, Aion, LotRO) had an initial development cost between 25 and 40 millions $USD.
The next gen of AAA mmorpg seems to slowly catch up in terms of initial development cost, with SW:TOR being a huge exception. 2011 will be a very interesing year for MMOGs
Tera looks good but not great, I've seen my share of eye candy based games fail to deliver stiff competition for WoW (AoC, Aion, WAR, Vangard.... et cetera). I've also seen games with interesting gameplay elements flop (Spellborn, DDO, Fallen Earth...et cetera)
I'm personally pass the stage of something trying to directly compete with WoW or boasting to replace it. And let me tell you, you'd do well to follow suit. Nothing worse than charging yourself up to stand behind a MMO and have it to fail to catch on with droves of players because they don't share your viewpoints on what makes it worthy of their cash.
And when you repeat this process over and over again and expect a different outcome, well you know what that clinically makes you right? Besides, getting a majority of the people on this website to hold hands and praise the coming of "the next big MMO" or "the fall of WoW" becomes harder and harder to do with each release of a new MMO. But I still see a few desperate souls clinging to their belief that we are one step closer to the perfect mmo to kill another mmo........HAHAHAHHAHAHAHA
er..um..sorry about that, it just gets funnier and funnier as time marches on.
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
Did those 1 million subscribers all get the game box free? Does the "break even" point include things like servers, CS, advertising, distribution, etc.?
Tera looks good and the gameplay will draw people but as seen recently with Aion: lack of end game and grind can really hurt retention.
If Tera's developers dont try and truly "westernize"(meaning, not NCSoft's idea of westernization) the game then it will go on the trash heap with the rest.
Did those 1 million subscribers all get the game box free? Does the "break even" point include things like servers, CS, advertising, distribution, etc.?
Tera looks good and the gameplay will draw people but as seen recently with Aion: lack of end game and grind can really hurt retention.
If Tera's developers dont try and truly "westernize"(meaning, not NCSoft's idea of westernization) the game then it will go on the trash heap with the rest.
Yeah. Its more than just the graphics too. Anyone that played Aion remember 'female youth voice?' Apparently, female warriors in Korea make sounds a lot like sex when fighting.
"Never met a pack of humans that were any different. Look at the idiots that get elected every couple of years. You really consider those guys more mature than us? The only difference between us and them is, when they gank some noobs and take their stuff, the noobs actually die." - Madimorga
WAR was more expensive at launch than Wow and still it didn't became a huge hit. Guildwars (and EQ for that matter) was made on a very tight budget and still sold pretty good.
Having a good budget helps but you will not get a hit MMO just because of that. There is so much more.
I have my doubts about TERA in the west. Asian games never been that popular in the west, most westerners like a different kind of gameplay. This does not include Japanese games (like Final fantasy), japs usually think more like westerners than Chinese or Koreans.
But Wow is still getting a lot of competition next year. TOR, GW2, WoDO, FFXIV and a few other interesting games are releasing too. They have enough money and some really good devs which is as important.
I'm not quite so sure what is so special about this game ? It could be a 44 million dollar asian grindfest. I'm not saying it is bad, I'm just saying that it is alot of money for this kind of game.
money does not equal quality
Wildstar:
Phantazm, Pago(PvP), Exiles
Guild: Socks with Sandals
Playing: Wildstar
Retired/Tried: DCUO. The Secret World, Darkfall UW, Darkfall, Mortal Online, DDO, Rift, Fallen Earth, Aion, APB, EQ, EQ2, PoTBS, WoW, WAR, SWG, CoX, Vangaurd, CO, GW, EVE, DAoC, LotRO, SW:ToR, GW2, Dragon Nest
Does that include the money invested in the initial development from Climax Online?
Voice acting and some of the largest play areas ever created.
Scott Jennings may be wrong, he may not be.
Either way, you can use his math to get the est. $150MM for development cost of SW:TOR or you can go another route:
$50 box cost and $15/mo sub.
EA is on record stating they need 1 million (1,000,000) subscribers to break even.
To recover cost in 1 month, development cost would be $65MM. To recover cost in 6 months, development cost would be $140MM. To recover cost in 1 year, development cost would be $230MM.
$150MM is not an unreasonable estimate when EA gave away 1MM subs needed.
But that doesn't say anything about voice acting being so costly. Where did that huge amount for voice acting come from? I'm starting to believe more and more it's just some unfounded rumour that started circulating until people went repeating it.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
You missed the massive point Richard made in the Massively podcast... it'll still be a AAA MMO and not the what he considers garbage available today in the social space. Ie it'll be UO2 played at the beginning for free with your friends that spins up into a cash cow, not Farmville redux.
He also said that in the social market place, the theme park level based EQ rev X MMO will out sell the open world sandbox but he's still only interested in making sandbox games.
I recall seeing that. But most of the money went to complete redesigns and code that was completely chucked. Very little of that money actually made it to the finished product.
After playing AoC and its first 20 levels, I don't believe in voice acting to "save the industry".
Adding cut scenes and voice acting in every quest is a waste of time and money. People don't play mmorpg's to speak with NPC's.
I am very pessimistic about this. People are too lazy to read 6 lines of text, they will not listen to 6 minutes of speech.
I can see the future as bland as ever. FFXIV btw has a terri bad slow combat system in its beta. (see beta forums).
I think we will have to wait for the next MMo from Blizzard.
I am afraid these new MMo's will be dead on arrival.
And I have this nagging feeling that compared to the new "more casual" Blizzard project, WOW could be considered extremely difficult and hardcore.
Perhaps paid MMORPG's are dead after all. It wouldn't surprise me one bit.
Its embarrassing when an NPC compliments you in an MMo, the only relevant, cool and epic things come from players whispering you Grtz, mate, we did it. copyright Pilnkplonk
Totally agree with all points here. I wouldn't touch it.
One of WOW's successful features is that its art style is generally acceptable by all global regional players; it isn't too Asian and it isn't too western and it isn't trying to be too realistic.
Edit:
ps - > money does not always equal > quality. As many have shown with examples in this thread, there are some real train wrecks of titles that spent A LOT more than some big successes.
I don't think Tera will even put a dent in WoW's subscribers. It's going to be just like Aion and Lineage II, it will garner a lot of initial subscribers in both the East and West (especially the East) and after a few months when people realize that the game will likely be another grindfest (there is no indication it won't be) most of the subscribers here in the West will move on to a different game. Aion never really pulled many subscribers from WoW either and Tera is going to be the same, because WoW appeals to all types of gamers including the very casual and these eastern games are being marketted towards the typical Korean gamer who is much more devoted to gaming as a hobby typically than a typical Western gamer. In order to break the cultural gap an Eastern game is going to have to market towards the West from the start, which isn't likely going to happen.
I'm not saying Tera won't do well. It will likely make it's profit and be a highly successful MMO, even if it's just picked up as a short fad (it probably will be more than that in the east). A production and marketing budget can only go so far though, and I doubt it will get nearly as much marketing attention here in the US as WoW does with it's various commericals on TV and ads across the internet (as well as word of mouth, how many non-gamers do you think will actually buy Tera and spread the word about it?).
SW:ToR is the only game I forsee being a competitor to WoW as it seems like the game is meant to appeal to every type of gamer just like WoW - from the most casual to the most hardcore and everywhere in between, plus unlike the anime style Eastern graphics it's Star Wars and appeals to nearly every culture in any developed country worldwide. I don't know if Bioware will actually pull it off and manage to take a good share of subscribers from WoW, but that remains to be seen. I'm not saying this as a Bioware fanboy either, I've already came to the conclusion that SW:ToR won't appeal to me and don't plan on purchasing it (though I might check out the Open Beta).
There are several promising MMOs in the works too, though I also doubt they will have any effects on WoW subs. Still it's looking like late this year and next year is going to be a great year for MMOs. Not only Tera and SW:ToR, but FFXIV, The Secret World, Earthrise, Guild Wars 2, and Rifts: Telara are going to be released in the near future. Should be a winning year for any type of MMO gamer.
I also think WoW has just about reached it's peak and ought to start declining soon just like all previous MMOs. I know even the most diehard WoW fans who still play. It's only a matter of time before you see a decline. I'm sure Blizzard will start hyping their next big MMO once this starts. We already know one is in the works.
This ^^^ QFT
The average MMO gamer is about 30 now.
TOR will attract Star Wars fans. It will attract MMO fans. With full voice acting and the Bioware label, it will attract RPG fans. The low system requirements won't exclude many people. The big question is whether it'll be good enough to retain all of the above for a significant amount of time. Impossible to predict, but I would say that I consider TOR to be entering the market in a very, very strong position. Perhaps as strong as WoW.
My problem with SW:ToR is Lucas has full control of this one. If you think he doesn't you're crazy. Because of this I cringe at the thought of him even being a part of this after we got episodes 6, 1-2 and 3. Seriously think about that for a sec. Let it sink in.
All we hear from the developers is how iconic this game is and how the combat is(and to be honest the combat looks terrible) we still know nothing really about the size of the worlds, nothing about the MMO aspects or game play we see in other MMO's. I am holding off on this one until I see some solid evidence this game isn't nothing more than Guild Wars in space - without the space! LOL!
Hey?! What's wrong with Guild Wars?? *scowls*
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Star Wars nerds make me laugh with their rose tinted glasses.
Nothing GW is a fun game to a point. I am hoping GW2 fixes GW's failings. ^_^
Gimme' some of those herbs Teala!
I think it will
But yeah, however admirable and talented Bioware dev teams may be, I also need some more convincing. GW2 and TSW already released info bits that have me to the point that I'm looking forward to learn more about it, but ToR still hasn't got me enthusiastic yet. For that, I need to see or hear more of its content and gameplay.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."