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The measure of SWTOR success.
Krux
Member Posts: 274
Over the last 5 years, I believe that not one mmorpg launched (aside from Aion) has been able to sustain more than 300,000 subscribed accounts from 6-months to a year out.
By association of sustained subscription numbers to a new product launch in year one, which we've seen over the last 5-years, it seems safe to say that as other established studios accept 200-300k sustained subscribers as a benchmark of average success, if Bioware achieves that, they can be considered as averagely successful.
One game, Aion with NCSoft has bucked the average trend and as of January 2010, there are 3 million Aion subscribers worldwide. Now lofty numbers with WoW and Aion are always debatable as to the finite accuracy, but what is not debatable is both games' subscribership far exceeds most other mmorpgs over the past 5 years.
So, would you say that, as with most other mmorpgs, that if SWTOR by Bioware garners 200-300 sustained subscriptions through 6-months post-launch and beyond that they can be considered successful; at least averagely successful. And if they break the 1-million subscription mark and sustain it 6-months post launch through the first year and beyond, would you say it is hugely successful?
Comments
From my point of view yes. From BioWares point of view, most probably not. They are shooting for 2 million players. If they don't reach 2 million players world wide, I think they will be very disappointed. I would be happy with 100K players playing this game, I don't care how many people are subbed to it, as long as I have fun playing it.
Financially though it would take 1 million to break even according to BioWare/EA. I think with most BioWare PC games selling upwards of 3 million in the first month, that 1 million is completely do-able.
Is there a link for that number commented on by a Bioware rep?
http://www.industrygamers.com/news/star-wars-mmo-could-see-over-2-million-subscribers/
I'll say that SW:ToR will be the new modern MMO of it's time. it will break 1 mil in its firs month tbh. all these people critisizing ToR will end up playing it aswell.. NCsoft failed with Aion. they jumped at first, then it slowly fell off.
They need 2 million to break even I believe.
Of course that's an easy 120,000,000 million dollars in their pocket if they succeed. And that's just box sales.
Please dont mis-read the content of the topic. Aion not only exceeded 2 million at launch, it has sustained 3 million beyond that.
If thats a failure, then Bioware will be considered a failure if it does not sustain 3 million 6-months and beyond to year-one post launch according to you?
I agree with OP and I think fiscally SWTOR needs 2 million subscriptions to break even or something like that. For a game of such magnitude, if they can't reach that, they are failing anyway.
It will sell 2 mill boxes easy.
Keeping them it's a different story.
I predict steady decline in subs after first month and it will stabilize around 500k or so.
Similar to AION basically.( most of the AION subs are east)
I care about your gaming 'problems' and teenage anxieties, just not today.
Asian subs do not equal Western subs. When I was subbed to Aion China I was paying by the hour and it worked out to around $5 a month. I was playing for around 4-5 hours a day, sometimes a bit more on weekends, so I'd say somewhat heavy. On top of that the client was free, never paid a cent for it.
Compare that to my account with Aion NA, I paid 50 for the client and 15 every month after that until I quit, didn't matter how much or how little I played.
People who compare asian subs with NA subs are being disingenuous at best, pushing an agenda at worst.
If TOR gets about 1.2M subs it will match AION for revenue, the only number that really counts.
And for the record Aion only sold about 1M boxes, all in NA/Eur, because as I've stated before MMOs don't (in general) sell the client in Asia but instead simply give it away.
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I'd be willing to venture SWTOR will make a killing in box sales (2-3 million) but given what I've seen so far all those voiceovers, Mr. Potato Head looking graphics, character movement & mechanics, wonderful movies made by another company, etc, etc. are not going to hold the 2 million+ subs they are aiming for.
When its said and done TOR will do very-very well by most MMO standards retaining around 400-600k subs. There are too many competing products coming out against it during the same timeframe and add in the fact that the MMO market for the large part has lost all tolerance for companies pushing out upgraded Wow clones aimed at grabbing 10-13 year olds.
SWTOR polls have proven that this game is mainly targeted and is appealing towards 16 year olds and higher and that the majority are 19 and older.
You are right, I digress and will happily correct myself.
WoW was aimed at 10-13 year olds and that was approx 6 years ago which probably lines right up with the 16-19 year old demographic that I'd be willing to venture make up the overwhelming share of interest in this venture.
Most sucessful companies do not create their own demographic rather than taking it from another. It also explains why every other game you see released on the market attempts to take a chunk out of WoW because they are attempting to cater to the age ranges you mentioned.
As time goes on you will likely see the age ranges start to expand as a natural result.
As a business and econ person... your right and wrong on that one but I understand where your coming from, and you have a vaild point, that they are trying to grab the players who are formerly WoW players.
They are also quoted as saying this about their target demographics.
"The game is not aimed at the Hardcore player but the Star Wars, RPG and Bioware Fans"
Unless there is some massive PR disaster prior to launch (doubtful given BioWare's experience), I expect SWTOR to do 2-5 million box sales. I think they'll consider it a failure if they can't sustain more than a million subs for over 6 months. And by "consider it a failure" i mean that it won't meet expectations, it'll still be financially successful - profitable. Box sales alone will do that. I mean, AoC sold a million copies and it's widely considered a commercial failure due to retention rates.
My best hope for SWTOR is that it'll teach BioWare all the right lessons for launching a better and not lucas-associated Mass Effect MMO a few years later.
"Id rather work on something with great potential than on fulfilling a promise of mediocrity."
- Raph Koster
Tried: AO,EQ,EQ2,DAoC,SWG,AA,SB,HZ,CoX,PS,GA,TR,IV,GnH,EVE, PP,DnL,WAR,MxO,SWG,FE,VG,AoC,DDO,LoTRO,Rift,TOR,Aion,Tera,TSW,GW2,DCUO,CO,STO
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Currently Playing: ESO
Haha.. i second that!
How many copies of SWTOR will be sold, also depends largely on their pricing model. If they use the GW model without subscription fees, they might easily sell a few million. Otherwise, not so sure.
I am pretty sure just on the strength of the IP alone, it will outperform Aion, and BioWare will more than surpass their losses. Four or five of my MMO buddies irl are getting it because they either love BioWare, KOTOR, or Star Wars- not because its an MMO. I think there will be a lot more people with this sentiment.
Obviously, I am just another guy with an opinion and I could be dead wrong.
On the contraty, It 's actually just as logical when considering population distribution, and removing the Asian market, with a similar distribution as WoW or even less, still makes it successful; much more so than any mmorpg in western hemisphere in the last 5 years.
And just to edit this, I will bend to the challenge that Bioware might try to achieve their 2 Million sustained subscribership (not box sales) goal in the western hemisphere. . .and if they do and dont achieve it, then the arguement that their not a world-wide presence is a false arguement.