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Sub Numbers Revealed
KitKat1
Member Posts: 33
Hello everyone
Its been a while and i thought i would pop in and see how things are going with the Game...lol ..Down hill... !
Well check this sub numbers out... www.mmodata.net
Looks like the hen has come home to roost ...(:-)....
Its so sad this game flopped big time ...i meen From having 600K web users to only having 100k commit to the game.... is a failure of epic size... especialy for Startrek.
Well done ... Cryptic!
Comments
Need to change your link to the 50-150k subs chart.
STO below 60k subs.
F2P/P2P excellent thread.
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/282517/F2P-An-Engineers-perspective.html
Hey there,
The link you provided doesn't show numbers for 2010, which was the year STO was released. Also STO is't listed on the graph anywhere. Please try again.
edit: New link is better
I wouldn't put much faith in those numbers. At launch I have the feeling they had far more than 106k, and it is likely that their current subs are less than the chart suggests.
FIXED!
www.mmodata.net
It's fun to take a look at these charts and all... but they are just guessed numbers you know...
Anyway i think STO is really doing that bad and hope it goes free to play soon, as a free to play i'll probably play with it a little.
Star Trek Online
Abbreviation = STO
Accuracy Rating B
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
MMO and Accuracy list
Accuracy Rating :
A – Confident : Most or all of the data points come from official or other reliable sources and are in line with other numbers and information.
B – Reasonably Confident : Part of the data points come from official or other reliable sources and part of the data points come from estimates, third party sources, unclear official sources or other indirect information.
C – Not too confident : Some of the data points come from official or other reliable sources, many of the data points come from estimates, third party sources, unclear official sources or other indirect information.
D – Unconfident : Most or all of the data points come from estimates, third party sources, unclear official sources or other indirect information.
F2P/P2P excellent thread.
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/282517/F2P-An-Engineers-perspective.html
MMOdata is more guesswork than science, until Cryptic decides to reveal their numbers the world will never really know.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
lol, there doesn't seem to be much difference between B,C or D. All 3 appear to rely on "third pary sources, unclear official sources...."
Translation- I pretty much pick these numbers out 'o me bum.
Many of you may not like the numbers at mmodata, but that website is MORE right then wrong.. The scales tip in favor of mmodata, then against.. Accept the concept that your favorite game is NOT well received.. Every 3rd party website out there shows that STO has faced some "subscription" problems.. Where there is smoke, there if fire..
judging by the statement zinc made about a month after launch that he was happy with 100k subs, i think it's safe to say based on forum actiivity and the nature of some of those posts, namely reports than even sector space in max level areas are barren of players at primetime, that there are likely less than 50k active subs, and even a smaller amount of regular active everyday primetime players, including LTSers.
as well crytpic or atari claimed 1m website accounts at launch, which might imply 1m boxes were sold, or at least 1m preorders, although some speculated that this included accounts for champions online, and doesn't include the people who made multiplre preorder and CE box purchases for the "exclusive" bonus items.
KERPLAH!
It's actually more science than guess work.
The only games where it occasionally falls short on accuracy are some of those that are made by companies that are very tight to the vest about their sub numbers. like SOE for example. Thus why you see the skewed data for SWG at release. It didn't ever get that high but it was estimated at being that high just after release because of the high number of box sales. According to some fo the original producers and lead designers of the game the most it ever got was around 230K subscribers (a testament to just how bad the release state game was), and that number was just after release and dropped like a stone from then on at a rate of 10 to 15K a month, then a sharper decline after the NGE of course.
Then there's private companies like CCP that just flat out BS about their sub numbers to try and generate a herd mentality. There's nowhere near over 300K subscribed to EvEO. It's more like half that, and then you have to take into account how many people that play EvE and have multiple accounts to mine with, which is a huge number.
Cryptic is part of Atari, which is a publicly traded company, and so it would be pretty easy for an adept data miner to figure out STO's sub numbers.
I think they said account that had been created but they likely meant accounts that had been created EVER just like the captains database shows all the accounts ever created for STO.
http://mmodata.net/
its funny, if you look throught the charts of past games, most have an initial start period where subs are high, then dip. the better games start to gain subs after the initial dip. some games (like sto) though go straight up, then straight down. the games in this latter group tend to last not much more than a year.
tabula rasa and warhammer look similar in fact.
IF THE ONLY DEFENCE FOR CRITICISM OF A GAME IS CALLING SOMEONE A TROLL OR HATER, THAT SAYS A LOT ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE GAME
Proof, proof , proof, that's what it's about.
Without evidence it's hard to believe these figures are anything more than guesswork. Anyone can guess, doesn't mean it's anywhere near the truth.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
well signing up to the STO website is the same account for the game as for the forum, but yeah that would make sense too.
and thae captains database was uber fail when i last used it. did they ever improve it/make it functional?
KERPLAH!
I am not surprised as Cryptic "Kobayashi Maru"-ed STO for quite some time. One wonders how many months STO has left...
Agreed...They may not be perfect but if you look at most of the Charts, for the Games I've played at least, the numbers look pretty close to what I imagined...
As far as STO is concerned no big surprise for me...Most of My Guild that was playing STO is back to LOTRO either Full Time or close to Full Time...Lucky for me it took a lot shorter time to realize STO was not my cup-of-tea...
Swing and a miss by Cryptic...Too bad...Awesome IP...And I was REALLY looking forward to playing STO...It was SO disappointing for me...
You would think that anyone with two eyes in their head and half a brain could log into the game over the course of a week and be able to figure out how to get enough proof that the game is dying fast. Many have been doing that for months already. It's becoming more of a ghost game every day, and with most of the six month subs soon to be dropping off the actual numbers are going to be even worse. Plug your ears and hum all you like, but soon the loud thud of this game hitting bottom is just going to be too loud for even the most deluded Cryptic/STO supporter to ignore.
proof... well you are correct... it is hard to beleive that these numbers are anything more than guesswork. is it hard to beleive they are accurate..... well they probably are quite high. i really doubt sto has 35,000 subs left let alone as much as what this site suggests. but they probably err on the side of caution as not to do harm to a game. cryptic wouldnt be putting c-store content ahead of actually making the game release worthy if they were not in major financial trouble.
you dont need to log into the game... just go to the official forums and read all the posts of people complaining how empty the game is now (which truly is amazing considering how small it is). and before some cdf starts going off about how your not on the map when your in an instance, the chat channels dont dissappear when you go into another instance. i remember when the game launched you couldnt fly anywhere without another 10 to 20 ships in sight, and the public chat whirred by fast enough i didnt bother trying to read it. sad that cryptic managed to ruin what could have been a great mmo with an incredible ip.
i guess the only upside is that sto was so bad, i now know that no cryptic product is even worth looking at buying without a massive amount of positive feedback.
IF THE ONLY DEFENCE FOR CRITICISM OF A GAME IS CALLING SOMEONE A TROLL OR HATER, THAT SAYS A LOT ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE GAME
To me subnumbers are useless since we dont really know what it takes for an mmo to be profitable and to a dev thats all that matters. Without this knowledge subnumbers are basically an epeen sort of thing.
If you follow the trends of other games that had similar subscriber falloff after release.... Tabula Rasa, Vanguard, Pirates of the Burning Sea, and DDO... that should tell you something. DDO is the only one that ever rebounded because it went F2P.
Here's the deal on that claim: What a lot of people didn't notice when that press release was made were the words accounts on our websites, particularly that last word. Since CO and STO forum account handles are also your login handle in most cases, the marketing department tried to pull a fast one with the numbers. At no time did they ever state there were one million game accounts, or one million boxes sold. A little while back a poster named Jacob_Flowers(sp?) started a thread on the official STO forums, taking STO's marketing department to task for all the blunders they have made. One of the marketing people eventually responded and put their usual spin on things, only this time around he was claiming 1.2 or 1.3 million accounts on their websites. Their claim is really just your typical PR spin (it seems every game these days tries to cash in on the one million number); all they really meant is that they had one million forum accounts between CO and STO.
"Oh my, how horrible, someone is criticizing a MMO. Oh yeah, that is what a forum is about, looking at both sides. You rather have to be critical of anything in this genre as of late because the track record of these major studios has just been appalling." -Ozmodan
According to repeated statements from Cryptic's executives, they would be happy with 100,000 subscribers, and STO would be viable with 50,000 subscribers (whether they count lifetimers in those numbers is anyone's guess).
"Oh my, how horrible, someone is criticizing a MMO. Oh yeah, that is what a forum is about, looking at both sides. You rather have to be critical of anything in this genre as of late because the track record of these major studios has just been appalling." -Ozmodan
You have no idea what you are talking about. Evidence is not proof. Strictly speaking mathematics is the only area of knowledge where a discussion of proof is really sensible.
There is a science to estimating numbers of things in a population that you cannot completely observe, which I'm sure can be applied to, say, the number of active players in STO. Did you know that you can reliably estimate the number of taxi cabs in a city just by standing at one corner for an hour each day and writing down which ones you see?
It is even easier to derive indices of abundance and infer the rate of decline or increase.
So, it is not exact numbers or a wild guess, only. There are inbetweens, i.e. statistical statements inferred from publicly available data. These can be just as good in revealing the state of an MMO.
This debate happens everytime someone quotes mmodata.
Simple fact, if the source isn't the developer or publisher, its pure guesswork.
Funny, no source, no fact.