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Serious question: is it possible that this game could actually fail?

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  • HrimnirHrimnir Member RarePosts: 2,415

    I'm about 80% certain this game will sell like hotcakes, be popular as hell for about 4-6 months, then start seeing MASSIVE subs not being renewed.  Why?  Because its a bioware game, and as soon as you run out of the "uber awesome super polished zomg i have wood" storyline, there is going to be little else to keep people playing the game. 

    Sadly i have read nor seen anything that leads me to believe this is going to be anything other than an online version of the same KOTOR clone games they have been making since KOTOR.

    "The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."

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  • eburneburn Member Posts: 740

    Originally posted by agaga

    Originally posted by eburn

    Haters just going to hate.

    What if this game, 365 days after launch, has a confirm subscription base of 1.5 million?

    Would that be a measure of success or failure?

    Nobody's hating anything.

    It's a good question - would Bioware and LA consider a confirmed sub base of one and a half million a great success or not? Compared to the old SWG figures of around 200,000 it would be an amazing success; compared to WOW's apparent figures of around eleven million, not so much.

    The objective of that question was to just point out what is going to measure the game's success; or it's failure.

    There are people convinced it's already failed. Others believe there won't be any flaws to it what so ever.

    I think considering all of the work that has gone in to the game it's almost guaranteed to AT LEAST be as popular as WAR or AoC, which in a way could be considered a failure. Where as truly it's probably just status quo.

    Branding is way too powerful of a tool to simply ignore because a game has a couple of aspects that are questionable.

    I kill other players because they're smarter than AI, sometimes.

  • AkomoAkomo Member Posts: 8

    It will depend greatly on the community and the devs response to that community.Im a fan of both Bioware and LucasArts.Both companies have made great products in the past.Like Blizzard before WoW.Im also fairly certain they keep tabs on whats happening in the MMO market as well.As of 2008 WoW had approximately 50-60 % of all MMO players in their game.Of the entire gaming market, MMOs in 2008 made up about 20% of that market.

    These numbers have probably changed since then.About half of WoW sub base are Asia.Which is to be expected since they have a higher population base and higher internet community.If Bioware and LucasArts play it smart the game will succeed,maybe even more so than WoW.

  • DistopiaDistopia Member EpicPosts: 21,183

    Originally posted by agaga

    Originally posted by Malickie


    Originally posted by agaga


     

    Actually, it isn't if you're an adult interested in business. Bioware and LA have quarterly targets, box sales projections, subscription revenue assessments.  I wonder where their cut-off point between profit and loss is? How many boxes do they have to seel? How many subscribers must they have at launch? At the three-month mark? Six months? The end of the first year? If we know anything about John Riccitiello, the CEO of EA, he's all about quarterly profit and loss. I believe he was the man who pulled the plug on that surefire winner, The Sims Online.

     His answer was a simplification of all of that ,was it not? He doesn't feel they will fail to turn a profit. As for what Biowares as well as LA/EA's outlook may be who here knows? Yes it's possible it can fail, as could any profit making scheme. You already know the answer to your question if you're an adult interested in business, at least I would hope so...

    Don't be silly. My questions are: how many boxes do Bioware/EA/LA need to sell to meet their initial sales projections and how many subscribers do they need to ensure longterm profitability?

    Read my post before you reply next time, if you did maybe you'd see I already said most of us really don't know the answer to such specific questions. How could we know?

    First we do not know the exact budget spent, making it hard to estimate what they need to break even on that alone. Second we do not know their expectations in any exact form in terms of subscription outlook. Then we do not know the amount they are willing to sacrifice in order to keep the project afloat.

    If anyone's being silly it's you and the question you're asking.

    As it's very easy to answer, yes the product could fail to meet expectation. In turn it could be shut down due to failing to meet those expectations. This isn't rocket science or any science for that matter, it's common freaking sense.

    For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson


  • AkomoAkomo Member Posts: 8

    Originally posted by Hrimnir

    I'm about 80% certain this game will sell like hotcakes, be popular as hell for about 4-6 months, then start seeing MASSIVE subs not being renewed.  Why?  Because its a bioware game, and as soon as you run out of the "uber awesome super polished zomg i have wood" storyline, there is going to be little else to keep people playing the game. 

     

    That will depend greatly if the community gives honest feedback about issues in game.It will depend on the devs coming out with content.Every 6 months for a content patch is a steady pace with mini releases every 3 months to keep folks interested and around.Ideas must come from the community since they are the ones playing.If you get a dysfunctional community that offers nothing in the way of ideas to make a game better then players are partially to blame.

    As much as i enjoy PvP ,its not enough to keep people playing the game.Content keeps people around.That in turn keeps the socialites resubbing.That in turn keep PvP alive since the casuals come on in for a few rounds before bed or work.PvE -->Social aspect-->PvPers--> CONTENT= Good Game.Respecting one another in game would be nice also,but lets not get ahead of ourselves here.Baby steps first.:P

  • Nightbringe1Nightbringe1 Member UncommonPosts: 1,335

    Originally posted by madeux

    Originally posted by Nightbringe1


    Originally posted by madeux

    If past performance is the best indicator of future performance, then let's take a look at all of the past failures of BioWare...   Hmmm, I can't seem to find one!

    And which of Bioware's previous MMO's are you comparing it too?

    So you couldn't find a failure either?  That's what I thought.

    No, I could find no past performance in the MMO market. Since this is what you are referencing, I was wondering if you could provide a link.

    Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain and most fools do.
    Benjamin Franklin

  • Nightbringe1Nightbringe1 Member UncommonPosts: 1,335

    Originally posted by eburn

    Haters just going to hate.

    What if this game, 365 days after launch, has a confirm subscription base of 1.5 million?

    Would that be a measure of success or failure?

    If the game has enough subscribers to continue employing a full team of developers and produces regular and meaningful updates, I will consider it a success.

    Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain and most fools do.
    Benjamin Franklin

  • agagaagaga Member Posts: 273

    Originally posted by Malickie

    Originally posted by agaga


    Originally posted by Malickie


    Originally posted by agaga


     

    Actually, it isn't if you're an adult interested in business. Bioware and LA have quarterly targets, box sales projections, subscription revenue assessments.  I wonder where their cut-off point between profit and loss is? How many boxes do they have to seel? How many subscribers must they have at launch? At the three-month mark? Six months? The end of the first year? If we know anything about John Riccitiello, the CEO of EA, he's all about quarterly profit and loss. I believe he was the man who pulled the plug on that surefire winner, The Sims Online.

     His answer was a simplification of all of that ,was it not? He doesn't feel they will fail to turn a profit. As for what Biowares as well as LA/EA's outlook may be who here knows? Yes it's possible it can fail, as could any profit making scheme. You already know the answer to your question if you're an adult interested in business, at least I would hope so...

    Don't be silly. My questions are: how many boxes do Bioware/EA/LA need to sell to meet their initial sales projections and how many subscribers do they need to ensure longterm profitability?

    Read my post before you reply next time, if you did maybe you'd see I already said most of us really don't know the answer to such specific questions. How could we know?

    First we do not know the exact budget spent, making it hard to estimate what they need to break even on that alone. Second we do not know their expectations in any exact form in terms of subscription outlook. Then we do not know the amount they are willing to sacrifice in order to keep the project afloat.

    If anyone's being silly it's you and the question you're asking.

    As it's very easy to answer, yes the product could fail to meet expectation. In turn it could be shut down due to failing to meet those expectations. This isn't rocket science or any science for that matter, it's common freaking sense.

    Look mate, I'm sorry if it's made you angry but seriously you haven't understood the question.

    This thread is just a hypothetical asking mmo players like ourselves for our best guess on how many boxes Bioware/EA/LA needs to sell and how many subs they need to retain. You know, speculation. Like people do about how many playable races there are going to be or how lare the planets are.

    If it's' 'common freaking sense' and you still don't get it, then perhaps this thread isn't for you.

  • PhilbyPhilby Member Posts: 849

      Box sales alone will recoup most of their investment. I know OP doesnt believe this but this game is going to be huge.  It is possible to make a profit but not enough of a profit for the suits to be bothered with keeping it going.  I know this isnt what OP wants to hear but its the way things work.  So yes, it will make a profit and in doing so cannot be considered a fail even if it doesnt make as much as the money boys would like. So the answer to your question is no, its not possible for SWTOR to fail.

    WOW isnt great because it has 12 million players. WOW has 12 million players because its great.

  • agagaagaga Member Posts: 273

    Originally posted by Nightbringe1

    Originally posted by eburn

    Haters just going to hate.

    What if this game, 365 days after launch, has a confirm subscription base of 1.5 million?

    Would that be a measure of success or failure?

    If the game has enough subscribers to continue employing a full team of developers and produces regular and meaningful updates, I will consider it a success.

    Aaah, but how many is that?

    It's strange but unlike almost any other publicly quoted enterprises in the United States or Europe, games development houses very rarely issue any figures about any of their business at all. This is not like car companies or PC companies, for example. You can tell how many people they employ and read their P&L statements in their annual reports. That's not so with games software houses because they tend to be owned by larger concerns who just report their figures as a bloc without analysis.

  • jaxsundanejaxsundane Member Posts: 2,776

    Originally posted by agaga

    This is not supposed to be a trollbait question but I am wondering by what specific P&L criteria Bioware and Lucas Arts will judge this game to be  a success or failure?

    We know that a major investment has gone into the game - some say as much as $100 million.

    That means it would have to sell two million boxes at fifty bucks a piece to break even immediately. That's not inconceivable at all - and is probably very likely. But I wonder what longterm subscriber figures LA and Bioware need to break even on a longterm basis and to bring in the profits that they have planned for? I also wonder what sub figures/revenue figures they would consider to be a failure - and what they would do in response to that failure - reengineer the game, remodel its revenue base or even close it down?

     While failure is a possibility it is not a very high likelyhood.  Unlike SWG this game seems to be moving towards being inclusive which was kind of the opposite of SWG.  The design also lends to the ability to carry an aggresive marketing campaign as well which gives it another advantage over the only other Star Wars mmo.

    I think Bioware is taking a much more conventional strategy as it comes to this game as in they are trying to reach the broadest spectrum possible and I think they have the tools to succeed at that too.

    but yeah, to call this game Fantastic is like calling Twilight the Godfather of vampire movies....

  • agagaagaga Member Posts: 273

    Originally posted by Philby

      Box sales alone will recoup most of their investment. I know OP doesnt believe this but this game is going to be huge.  It is possible to make a profit but not enough of a profit for the suits to be bothered with keeping it going.  I know this isnt what OP wants to hear but its the way things work.  So yes, it will make a profit and in doing so cannot be considered a fail even if it doesnt make as much as the money boys would like. So the answer to your question is no, its not possible for SWTOR to fail.

    Well you're wrong. The OP does believe that. I think that at launch SWTOR may be the best-selling MMORPG game of all time. However, what happens after launch is anyone guess.

    There is one thing I would remind you of - as GM and Goldman Sachs have both shown, nothing, no company, no business and no production is too big too fail.

  • DistopiaDistopia Member EpicPosts: 21,183

    Originally posted by agaga

     

    Look mate, I'm sorry if it's made you angry but seriously you haven't understood the question.

    This thread is just a hypothetical asking mmo players like ourselves for our best guess on how many boxes Bioware/EA/LA needs to sell and how many subs they need to retain. You know, speculation. Like people do about how many playable races there are going to be or how lare the planets are.

    If it's' 'common freaking sense' and you still don't get it, then perhaps this thread isn't for you.

    Who said I was angry, the tone was in response to your adult comment, (as it wasn't very adult like) I've answered your overall question twice already, do I need to again?

    If you haven't gotten the point of both of my posts, I'll make it simple, there's no point in speculating the questions you're asking as they have a definitive answer, which is yes, Or for the more steadfast on biowares capability NO.

    You can have all the fun you want speculating, I just think it's "silly" to do so. My response was a reflection of my opinion as well as your tone, don't like it don't read it.

    For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson


  • summitussummitus Member UncommonPosts: 1,414

    Why are people on these forums so obbessed with tusing the word " Fail " .. its so irritating !

  • PhilbyPhilby Member Posts: 849

    Originally posted by agaga

    Originally posted by Philby

      Box sales alone will recoup most of their investment. I know OP doesnt believe this but this game is going to be huge.  It is possible to make a profit but not enough of a profit for the suits to be bothered with keeping it going.  I know this isnt what OP wants to hear but its the way things work.  So yes, it will make a profit and in doing so cannot be considered a fail even if it doesnt make as much as the money boys would like. So the answer to your question is no, its not possible for SWTOR to fail.

    Well you're wrong. The OP does believe that. I think that at launch SWTOR may be the best-selling MMORPG game of all time. However, what happens after launch is anyone guess.

    There is one thing I would remind you of - as GM and Goldman Sachs have both shown, nothing, no company, no business and no production is too big too fail.

    The game may close 6 months after launch and be a failed game,  but if they have turned a profit they have not failed as a business venture. So the answer is still no, it will not fail to turn a profit and adult business is what your talking about right?

    WOW isnt great because it has 12 million players. WOW has 12 million players because its great.

  • DistopiaDistopia Member EpicPosts: 21,183

    Originally posted by jaxsundane

    Originally posted by agaga

     

     While failure is a possibility it is not a very high likelyhood.  Unlike SWG this game seems to be moving towards being inclusive which was kind of the opposite of SWG.  The design also lends to the ability to carry an aggresive marketing campaign as well which gives it another advantage over the only other Star Wars mmo.

    I think Bioware is taking a much more conventional strategy as it comes to this game as in they are trying to reach the broadest spectrum possible and I think they have the tools to succeed at that too.

    I'd agree with this, if I were to speculate in any direction it would be, they will succeed in terms of mass market appeal.

    Meaning if you hate the games of today you will most likely hate TOR. As it's going to be all about bells and whistles, ala the space combat they just revealed. Expect many more tiny additions like this to keep the masses occupied for years to come.

    I also expect micro transactions in the form of story based content, they need to pay for those new voice-overs some how.

    For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson


  • ThorqemadaThorqemada Member UncommonPosts: 1,282

    I guess that SWTOR may be able to hit 3 Millions of box sales very fast and that over a one year period it will have around 1 millions subscribers average.

    After that the game is a good financial/PR success and has many players entertained.

    EA afair wants a ROI in a timespan of around 12 months and if they do not make a huge mistake until the game is out and its working at release they achieve their goals.

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  • rozenblade1rozenblade1 Member CommonPosts: 501

    It can and will fail IF there is minimal content.  That is what I worry most about with this one...the content. 

    I'm sure it will play well, have minimal bugs, and be pretty fun....but will they have content that will last long enough to please players?

    PLAYING: NOTHING!!!
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  • KidfierceKidfierce Member Posts: 36

    Of course it could fail.  Random chance.  Chaos theory...      The many facets of operating a business are equal chances that an occurance will happen to cause the business to fail.   

    There are chances a stray planet or asteroide could run into us at any moment.     Stop wasting time and stressing about the "what ifs" of an UNRELEASED game.

    Go outside and play; ride your bike.    The game will be released before you realize it.     Does everyone on this site just sit and watch the seconds count down to a release date?  Worrying about what to do, will it fail, and if they can jump or swim in the game?

     

    Relax...let the game be developed and released.  THEN buy it.   At least your purchase will be a strike against it failing if it worries you so much.

     

  • PalebanePalebane Member RarePosts: 4,011

    We have seen one game with a big name and lots of money behind it fail already.

    Vault-Tec analysts have concluded that the odds of worldwide nuclear armaggeddon this decade are 17,143,762... to 1.

  • maskedweaselmaskedweasel Member LegendaryPosts: 12,197

    Originally posted by rozenblade1

    It can and will fail IF there is minimal content.  That is what I worry most about with this one...the content. 

    I'm sure it will play well, have minimal bugs, and be pretty fun....but will they have content that will last long enough to please players?

    Content is the last thing I'm worried about with this title.  I'm more worried about the core mechanics.  It looks great at the early levels,  but so did WAR.. hell WAR even played well through T2 at launch.

     

    To answer some of the questions here,  EA already said it would take 1 million subscribers to break even, they are anticipating 2 million.  Whether that means initial sales, or long term subscribers its really tough to say.



  • Recon48Recon48 Member UncommonPosts: 218

    Originally posted by agaga

    Look mate, I'm sorry if it's made you angry but seriously you haven't understood the question. This thread is just a hypothetical asking mmo players like ourselves for our best guess on how many boxes Bioware/EA/LA needs to sell and how many subs they need to retain. You know, speculation. Like people do about how many playable races there are going to be or how lare the planets are.  If it's' 'common freaking sense' and you still don't get it, then perhaps this thread isn't for you.


     Serious question: is it possible that this game could actually fail?  Thats the title of the post.

    How is a post requesting speculation of "could it fail" be subject to right answer or wrong answer?  If a person hedges so much as a guess as to whether it will recoup the development and operating costs, I think thats a pretty accurate answer to the OP's question.  To speculate their internally projected sales numbers is all but completely useless.  Success or failure boils down to hard numbers, not hypothetical ones.  

    Now, on topic: I would venture a guess that there are likely at least 500k adopters that are going to buy the game solely based on the IP.  Double that number to include the MMO players that will buy into it on release based on marketing.  There are quite a few gamers playing WoW, SWG, Guild Wars, Aion and other MMOs that will try it based on hype and the fact that its a new game and with the excitement of "new and somewhat different", word of mouth will bring their friends/guildies to try it.  As long as the game releases with most features and no gamebreaking bugs they're likely to recoup the development cost in the first month.  

    Next there's the free month's operating costs.  The 'wait & see' box customers that join up in month two should more than cover the operating costs for the two months.  After that point, its in the bag as a business success that's generating profit.

  • baphametbaphamet Member RarePosts: 3,311

    maybe long term, i can see this game starting off pretty big as long as it is polished. but i want to see how they implement endgame, that's really going to be the key.

    i will say that if they have a decent launch and sell an ass ton of copies, they will probably be alright.

    better to have a good launch with little end game than a bad launch.

  • baphametbaphamet Member RarePosts: 3,311


    Originally posted by rozenblade1
    It can and will fail IF there is minimal content.  That is what I worry most about with this one...the content. 
    I'm sure it will play well, have minimal bugs, and be pretty fun....but will they have content that will last long enough to please players?

    you mean at endgame? or just in general? i think there will be enough content to get your character maxed out.

    also there will be a unique story like for each class, which will keep it interesting for some people if the endgame content is lackluster.

    but yeah, endgame content is my worry.

  • SeffrenSeffren Member Posts: 743

    In the eyes of Bioware and Lucas Arts it won't fail ....

    In the eyes of MMORPG.com it allready failed ...

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