This is not supposed to be a trollbait question but I am wondering by what specific P&L criteria Bioware and Lucas Arts will judge this game to be a success or failure?
We know that a major investment has gone into the game - some say as much as $100 million.
That means it would have to sell two million boxes at fifty bucks a piece to break even immediately. That's not inconceivable at all - and is probably very likely. But I wonder what longterm subscriber figures LA and Bioware need to break even on a longterm basis and to bring in the profits that they have planned for? I also wonder what sub figures/revenue figures they would consider to be a failure - and what they would do in response to that failure - reengineer the game, remodel its revenue base or even close it down?
Question, more likely , is : "Is it possible that this game will not fail"
Investment was not $100 million. It was $150 million. And that is before the marketing campain that can coust up to 20 million
The game will not sell more than 1 million boxes initially.
Even Starcraft 2 , managed just little above that.
But the game that has "Subscription required" on its box can not sell more than 1 mill initially.
After that it commes to the same hurdle all MMOs face = WOW
And the formula is simple
12 mil play WOW = potential MMO player population is around 20 mil ( meaning that WOW holds amost 3/4 )
People play MMO with friends = mitigation should be in large groups ( if your friends play wow you will not play another game alone)
If big groups of people are changing game = why change to something very similar
All this makes huge numbers of players (needed to make such big game profitable) change MMO very unlikely.
WIll SWTOR manage to break this magic barrier ?
Its very unlikely judged on what we seen so far....
This is not supposed to be a trollbait question but I am wondering by what specific P&L criteria Bioware and Lucas Arts will judge this game to be a success or failure?
We know that a major investment has gone into the game - some say as much as $100 million.
That means it would have to sell two million boxes at fifty bucks a piece to break even immediately. That's not inconceivable at all - and is probably very likely. But I wonder what longterm subscriber figures LA and Bioware need to break even on a longterm basis and to bring in the profits that they have planned for? I also wonder what sub figures/revenue figures they would consider to be a failure - and what they would do in response to that failure - reengineer the game, remodel its revenue base or even close it down?
Question, more likely , is : "Is it possible that this game will not fail"
Investment was not $100 million. It was $150 million. And that is before the marketing campain that can coust up to 20 million
The game will not sell more than 1 million boxes initially.
Even Starcraft 2 , managed just little above that.
But the game that has "Subscription required" on its box can not sell more than 1 mill initially.
After that it commes to the same hurdle all MMOs face = WOW
And the formula is simple
12 mil play WOW = potential MMO player population is around 20 mil ( meaning that WOW holds amost 3/4 )
People play MMO with friends = mitigation should be in large groups ( if your friends play wow you will not play another game alone)
If big groups of people are changing game = why change to something very similar
All this makes huge numbers of players (needed to make such big game profitable) change MMO very unlikely.
WIll SWTOR manage to break this magic barrier ?
Its very unlikely judged on what we seen so far....
This is not supposed to be a trollbait question but I am wondering by what specific P&L criteria Bioware and Lucas Arts will judge this game to be a success or failure?
We know that a major investment has gone into the game - some say as much as $100 million.
That means it would have to sell two million boxes at fifty bucks a piece to break even immediately. That's not inconceivable at all - and is probably very likely. But I wonder what longterm subscriber figures LA and Bioware need to break even on a longterm basis and to bring in the profits that they have planned for? I also wonder what sub figures/revenue figures they would consider to be a failure - and what they would do in response to that failure - reengineer the game, remodel its revenue base or even close it down?
Question, more likely , is : "Is it possible that this game will not fail"
Investment was not $100 million. It was $150 million. And that is before the marketing campain that can coust up to 20 million
The game will not sell more than 1 million boxes initially.
Even Starcraft 2 , managed just little above that.
But the game that has "Subscription required" on its box can not sell more than 1 mill initially.
After that it commes to the same hurdle all MMOs face = WOW
And the formula is simple
12 mil play WOW = potential MMO player population is around 20 mil ( meaning that WOW holds amost 3/4 )
People play MMO with friends = mitigation should be in large groups ( if your friends play wow you will not play another game alone)
If big groups of people are changing game = why change to something very similar
All this makes huge numbers of players (needed to make such big game profitable) change MMO very unlikely.
WIll SWTOR manage to break this magic barrier ?
Its very unlikely judged on what we seen so far....
Why?
Because its subscription game. Opposed to normal one purchase game like MW2 that made 4 million sales. People are less likely to randomly pick it in store , because of "credit card needed to play" sign on the back of the box.
This is not supposed to be a trollbait question but I am wondering by what specific P&L criteria Bioware and Lucas Arts will judge this game to be a success or failure?
We know that a major investment has gone into the game - some say as much as $100 million.
That means it would have to sell two million boxes at fifty bucks a piece to break even immediately. That's not inconceivable at all - and is probably very likely. But I wonder what longterm subscriber figures LA and Bioware need to break even on a longterm basis and to bring in the profits that they have planned for? I also wonder what sub figures/revenue figures they would consider to be a failure - and what they would do in response to that failure - reengineer the game, remodel its revenue base or even close it down?
Question, more likely , is : "Is it possible that this game will not fail"
Investment was not $100 million. It was $150 million. And that is before the marketing campain that can coust up to 20 million
The game will not sell more than 1 million boxes initially.
Even Starcraft 2 , managed just little above that.
But the game that has "Subscription required" on its box can not sell more than 1 mill initially.
After that it commes to the same hurdle all MMOs face = WOW
And the formula is simple
12 mil play WOW = potential MMO player population is around 20 mil ( meaning that WOW holds amost 3/4 )
People play MMO with friends = mitigation should be in large groups ( if your friends play wow you will not play another game alone)
If big groups of people are changing game = why change to something very similar
All this makes huge numbers of players (needed to make such big game profitable) change MMO very unlikely.
WIll SWTOR manage to break this magic barrier ?
Its very unlikely judged on what we seen so far....
Why?
Because its subscription game. Opposed to normal one purchase game like MW2 that made 4 million sales. People are less likely to randomly pick it in store , because of "credit card needed to play" sign on the back of the box.
I'm not throlling ... but where do you get this nr?
Because its subscription game. Opposed to normal one purchase game like MW2 that made 4 million sales. People are less likely to randomly pick it in store , because of "credit card needed to play" sign on the back of the box.
I'm not throlling ... but where do you get this nr?
Why 1 million ... really don't get it.
1 million hard copy disks & packages is about the limit for industry at the moment. Blizzard probably acquired Activision because they were the easiest publisher to buy to get the number that high.
Within the first 6 months EA can probably match that. So it's a pretty safe estimate on moving availible materials for a new MMO. Counting servers, keys, space (virtual and logistic) and what not. That number can be boosted by digital copies for sure.
4 million for a primarily US and EU based game is a really aggressive number to go for (console, stand alone PC, and MMORPG) games. But a 1 million mark as a goal can potentially be doubled.
A reach out into the Asian market can toss 6 to 8 million more players in to a game, but EA does a pretty good job at keeping third-party markets out of their games. So they won't thrive.
I think we're probably a decade out from any online game reaching 10 million users States-side alone.
I kill other players because they're smarter than AI, sometimes.
Because its subscription game. Opposed to normal one purchase game like MW2 that made 4 million sales. People are less likely to randomly pick it in store , because of "credit card needed to play" sign on the back of the box.
I'm not throlling ... but where do you get this nr?
Why 1 million ... really don't get it.
1 million hard copy disks & packages is about the limit for industry at the moment. Blizzard probably acquired Activision because they were the easiest publisher to buy to get the number that high.
Within the first 6 months EA can probably match that. So it's a pretty safe estimate on moving availible materials for a new MMO. Counting servers, keys, space (virtual and logistic) and what not. That number can be boosted by digital copies for sure.
4 million for a primarily US and EU based game is a really aggressive number to go for (console, stand alone PC, and MMORPG) games. But a 1 million mark as a goal can potentially be doubled.
A reach out into the Asian market can toss 6 to 8 million more players in to a game, but EA does a pretty good job at keeping third-party markets out of their games. So they won't thrive.
I think we're probably a decade out from any online game reaching 10 million users States-side alone.
If I'm reading correctly it's either a publishing restriction (1mil boxes at a time)
or a hardware restriction (server setup, network, etc)
Because its subscription game. Opposed to normal one purchase game like MW2 that made 4 million sales. People are less likely to randomly pick it in store , because of "credit card needed to play" sign on the back of the box.
I'm not throlling ... but where do you get this nr?
Why 1 million ... really don't get it.
1 million hard copy disks & packages is about the limit for industry at the moment. Blizzard probably acquired Activision because they were the easiest publisher to buy to get the number that high.
Within the first 6 months EA can probably match that. So it's a pretty safe estimate on moving availible materials for a new MMO. Counting servers, keys, space (virtual and logistic) and what not. That number can be boosted by digital copies for sure.
4 million for a primarily US and EU based game is a really aggressive number to go for (console, stand alone PC, and MMORPG) games. But a 1 million mark as a goal can potentially be doubled.
A reach out into the Asian market can toss 6 to 8 million more players in to a game, but EA does a pretty good job at keeping third-party markets out of their games. So they won't thrive.
I think we're probably a decade out from any online game reaching 10 million users States-side alone.
If I'm reading correctly it's either a publishing restriction (1mil boxes at a time)
or a hardware restriction (server setup, network, etc)
or both?
Both and I left out the fact that the game probably will only attract a few thousand fans who are new to the genre. That's why I used AoC and WAR as better comparisons to how this game will likely succeed, but sort of pale in comparison to the obvious 900 lbs gorilla in the room.
1 million disks / accounts will probably be out there for the first 6 months. Plus I'd think around that many people genuinely willing to try it at release.
With probably ~20% new to the genre all together. This coming from ~10% statistic for people who came to Age of Conan because they were Conan fans previously, and the same number for Warhammer fans who liked the idea of the game.
The argument prior is a lot of people will be turned off by the monthly fee. Which can be very true. People new to the genre in every age group is turned off by this usually. So while the hype may seem like millions upon millions... An even estimate of 1 million at launch is reasonable for quite a few factors.
I kill other players because they're smarter than AI, sometimes.
This is not supposed to be a trollbait question but I am wondering by what specific P&L criteria Bioware and Lucas Arts will judge this game to be a success or failure?
We know that a major investment has gone into the game - some say as much as $100 million.
That means it would have to sell two million boxes at fifty bucks a piece to break even immediately. That's not inconceivable at all - and is probably very likely. But I wonder what longterm subscriber figures LA and Bioware need to break even on a longterm basis and to bring in the profits that they have planned for? I also wonder what sub figures/revenue figures they would consider to be a failure - and what they would do in response to that failure - reengineer the game, remodel its revenue base or even close it down?
Not to quibble over numbers, but you don't make the total box price. There are lots of costs such as advertising, and you split revenues between publishers, and the retail outlets.
If you sell a box at Best Buy, you don't get to keep all the money. Best Buy takes a cut.
Or even D2D takes a cut from the price of the download.
It's a large investment, so obviously they are hoping to get a good return, which means large subscription numbers. What their goal is, I don't know.
Personally I really cannot see this 'failing' in the eyes of LA/Bioware. Here are my reasons:
1) Bioware have had many successful story-based games that a heck of a lot of people enjoy (BG/BG2/NWN/Mass Effect/ME2/DA:O/KOTOR). People who enjoyed these games will almost certainly take a peek at SW:TOR 'because its Bioware and we love their stories' (Personally nothing has EVER immersed me as much as Mass Effect 1 and 2).
2) The Star Wars IP - Many, many people will jump into it just because its SW. This will tally up for initial box sales and hence profitability.
3) The sheer success of KOTOR is enough to bring people to the game. It was probably one of the best re-imaginings of the SW IP - again this point will draw people in 'just because'.
4) People are complaining that SW:TOR may turn out to be a 'casual' game - if this is the case then theyre going to hit the perfect market. Make no mistakes here, most 'MMO gamers' are casual players who really are not interested in super-duper hardcore MMOs. WoW is my idea of a casual MMO and look at it's subscriber level - in the case of WoW, half the players are barely even gamers, let alone MMO players - this is the power of a good IP.
The above points really cover 'initial sales' over subscriptions. We cannot know what the subscription levels will be like because lets be honest, none of us really has any clue what the game itself is going to be like and what adventures/features it will hold on release. The only thing we can really judge at the moment is the initial box sales, and based on my points above, I see initial box sales doing very well - hence I do not expect SW:TOR to be a 'failure'.
No, this game will not fail. I do not plan on purcasing this game, but the fact that it is Star Wars + Bioware means that they will probably make back all their money on box sales alone. Not to mention that alot of Star Wars fans will probably purchase / play the game purely because it is Star Wars.
The gameplay itself could "fail" to those expecting an amazing game, or it could end up having very good gameplay.
I would guess that all of our questions will be answered once this game is released. But as for Bioware and EA losing money on this game... not happening.
Well, I think they're relying on AT LEAST the folks that loved Kotor as well as some MMO folks, as well as some SW fans to at least buy the box. So if they made enough in the Kotor games to cover the cost of developing this game, and they get those people, they'll be successful. I personally know a number of people who aren't interested in MMO's, weren't really interested in SWG, but are VERY interested in this game.
As far as sub RETENTION goes, they'll lose subs, from there. And I don't think it'll be as big as WoW. But again, I don't think it'll have to be. I suspect it will be profitable, but not so profitable that the usual group of naysayers from this board won't be able to spin up any bit of negative news as a sign of Epic Fail.
All we can do is wait and see. It's not like the MMO genre has seen nothing but success. The money they're dumping into this game is a pretty big gamble. In this economy, they wouldn't take a risk this big unless they were pretty certain they'd at least get their investment back.
You can believe that if they sell all those boxes that it will not be a failure. There will be people subbed and enough people for them to draw in massive revenue.
As far as failing as the MMO community is concerned? I couldn't give a rats ass what the MMO community thinks tbh. On MMORPG every game is concidered a failure , unless it is WoW.
No, this game will not fail. I do not plan on purcasing this game, but the fact that it is Star Wars + Bioware means that they will probably make back all their money on box sales alone. Not to mention that alot of Star Wars fans will probably purchase / play the game purely because it is Star Wars.
The gameplay itself could "fail" to those expecting an amazing game, or it could end up having very good gameplay.
I would guess that all of our questions will be answered once this game is released. But as for Bioware and EA losing money on this game... not happening.
I dont know where some of you have gotten the idea that just because an MMORPG is mass marketed that is cannot fail. Let's try that logic on Age of Conan, Warhammer, LOTR, Tabula Rasa, Matrix,SWG, AC2, Fury.
See the money invested into mmorpgs does not mean they want a game that sells great for 3 months and is over with. for the 1,700,000,000+ EA spent buying out MMO companies in the past few years to make a competing mmo, I dont think their looking for a 3 month and out game.
You can believe that if they sell all those boxes that it will not be a failure. There will be people subbed and enough people for them to draw in massive revenue.
As far as failing as the MMO community is concerned? I couldn't give a rats ass what the MMO community thinks tbh. On MMORPG every game is concidered a failure , unless it is WoW.
To some (not me), WoW is a failure because it fails to address their own personal requirements. The point is, "failure" can have many definitions to many different people.
To address the OP, financial "failure" would imply that the product fails to recoup the costs in develop and make a profit, whether or not SWTOR will be a financial success or failure cannot be predicted accurately at this time. Chances are though, that the investors will allow for sufficient amount of time before seeing a return on their investment. Otherwise they wouldn't have invested in it in the first place.
Now, as we all know, just because a product is a financial success doesn't necessarily imply that the game will be necessarily popular enough for the community to consider the product a "success".
Therefore, yes this game COULD "fail" both financially and in terms of popularity. But, it has just as much chance at being a success too. Being a well known brand name doesn't guarantee anything. Just ask Richard Garriott and Brad McQuaid about that.
The point is that pPersonally speaking, I still think we don't know enough about the product yet to make an accurate judgement as to its long term prosperity.
The success of World of Warcraft proved this and this alone. What an MMO needs to have large subscription numbers and therefore succeed is a large and rabid fan base that is already built in. The Warcraft franchise and Blizzard had a huge playerbase already established before they put out World of Warcraft. Blizzard and that playerbase had built up a lot of good will which Blizzard then carried over into the making of World of Warcraft. That playerbase adopted and supported World of Warcraft. There was an implicit bargain between Blizzard and that playerbase that went, "Put out a polished and playbel game that meets our expectations and we'll buy and support your game. Blizzard kept up it's part of the bargain by delivering a polished and playable product that fit that playerbase's expectations and then the playerbase kept it's part of the bargain by playing.
Bioware, if it can tap into the large and rabid KOTOR fanbase with SW:TOR, will produce a hit. What do KOTOR fans expect? Story told through NPCs and cut scenes as well as the ability to chose the avatar's destiny. What's SW:TOR got that they're always touting? Story told through NPC and cut scenes along with the ability to chose the avatar's destiny. The only question is if iwill play with the loyal KOTOR following. If Bioware can tap into that audience, they'll do well. If that audience doesn't like it ... Warhammer.
My general sense is that traditional MMO fans will find this as unfulfilling as Warcraft. Why? It's not built to appeal to them. It's built more for an RPG audience that already exists in large numbers and Bioware is trying to turn into monthly junkies.
Many a small thing has been made large by the right kind of advertising.
Because its subscription game. Opposed to normal one purchase game like MW2 that made 4 million sales. People are less likely to randomly pick it in store , because of "credit card needed to play" sign on the back of the box.
I'm not throlling ... but where do you get this nr?
Why 1 million ... really don't get it.
1 million hard copy disks & packages is about the limit for industry at the moment. Blizzard probably acquired Activision because they were the easiest publisher to buy to get the number that high.
Activision acquired Blizzard. The CEO of Activsion (Bobby Kdick) is CEO of both companies.
Theres just way tooo big of a Bioware/Star Wars fanbase for it to fail flattt......they would have to do something really REALLY extreme to not make a profit off this
Comments
Question, more likely , is : "Is it possible that this game will not fail"
Investment was not $100 million. It was $150 million. And that is before the marketing campain that can coust up to 20 million
The game will not sell more than 1 million boxes initially.
Even Starcraft 2 , managed just little above that.
But the game that has "Subscription required" on its box can not sell more than 1 mill initially.
After that it commes to the same hurdle all MMOs face = WOW
And the formula is simple
12 mil play WOW = potential MMO player population is around 20 mil ( meaning that WOW holds amost 3/4 )
People play MMO with friends = mitigation should be in large groups ( if your friends play wow you will not play another game alone)
If big groups of people are changing game = why change to something very similar
All this makes huge numbers of players (needed to make such big game profitable) change MMO very unlikely.
WIll SWTOR manage to break this magic barrier ?
Its very unlikely judged on what we seen so far....
Game will probably do ok, but i doubt it will be as great as Bioware expect it to.
Why?
Because its subscription game. Opposed to normal one purchase game like MW2 that made 4 million sales. People are less likely to randomly pick it in store , because of "credit card needed to play" sign on the back of the box.
I'm not throlling ... but where do you get this nr?
Why 1 million ... really don't get it.
1 million hard copy disks & packages is about the limit for industry at the moment. Blizzard probably acquired Activision because they were the easiest publisher to buy to get the number that high.
Within the first 6 months EA can probably match that. So it's a pretty safe estimate on moving availible materials for a new MMO. Counting servers, keys, space (virtual and logistic) and what not. That number can be boosted by digital copies for sure.
4 million for a primarily US and EU based game is a really aggressive number to go for (console, stand alone PC, and MMORPG) games. But a 1 million mark as a goal can potentially be doubled.
A reach out into the Asian market can toss 6 to 8 million more players in to a game, but EA does a pretty good job at keeping third-party markets out of their games. So they won't thrive.
I think we're probably a decade out from any online game reaching 10 million users States-side alone.
I kill other players because they're smarter than AI, sometimes.
If I'm reading correctly it's either a publishing restriction (1mil boxes at a time)
or a hardware restriction (server setup, network, etc)
or both?
Both and I left out the fact that the game probably will only attract a few thousand fans who are new to the genre. That's why I used AoC and WAR as better comparisons to how this game will likely succeed, but sort of pale in comparison to the obvious 900 lbs gorilla in the room.
1 million disks / accounts will probably be out there for the first 6 months. Plus I'd think around that many people genuinely willing to try it at release.
With probably ~20% new to the genre all together. This coming from ~10% statistic for people who came to Age of Conan because they were Conan fans previously, and the same number for Warhammer fans who liked the idea of the game.
The argument prior is a lot of people will be turned off by the monthly fee. Which can be very true. People new to the genre in every age group is turned off by this usually. So while the hype may seem like millions upon millions... An even estimate of 1 million at launch is reasonable for quite a few factors.
I kill other players because they're smarter than AI, sometimes.
Not to quibble over numbers, but you don't make the total box price. There are lots of costs such as advertising, and you split revenues between publishers, and the retail outlets.
If you sell a box at Best Buy, you don't get to keep all the money. Best Buy takes a cut.
Or even D2D takes a cut from the price of the download.
It's a large investment, so obviously they are hoping to get a good return, which means large subscription numbers. What their goal is, I don't know.
I am not worried about the end game. There's going to be enough content for players to max a character, and then fool around with some alts.
And of course, all during that time, the devs can work on "end game" content.
I wouldn't worry about catering to the tiny percentage of players that race to the level cap, and bitch about the end game.
It will be a good while after release before large numbers of players reach end game, burn through that content, and start looking for things to do.
Those that race to the level cap often quit, then come back later, which is fine.
Personally I really cannot see this 'failing' in the eyes of LA/Bioware. Here are my reasons:
1) Bioware have had many successful story-based games that a heck of a lot of people enjoy (BG/BG2/NWN/Mass Effect/ME2/DA:O/KOTOR). People who enjoyed these games will almost certainly take a peek at SW:TOR 'because its Bioware and we love their stories' (Personally nothing has EVER immersed me as much as Mass Effect 1 and 2).
2) The Star Wars IP - Many, many people will jump into it just because its SW. This will tally up for initial box sales and hence profitability.
3) The sheer success of KOTOR is enough to bring people to the game. It was probably one of the best re-imaginings of the SW IP - again this point will draw people in 'just because'.
4) People are complaining that SW:TOR may turn out to be a 'casual' game - if this is the case then theyre going to hit the perfect market. Make no mistakes here, most 'MMO gamers' are casual players who really are not interested in super-duper hardcore MMOs. WoW is my idea of a casual MMO and look at it's subscriber level - in the case of WoW, half the players are barely even gamers, let alone MMO players - this is the power of a good IP.
The above points really cover 'initial sales' over subscriptions. We cannot know what the subscription levels will be like because lets be honest, none of us really has any clue what the game itself is going to be like and what adventures/features it will hold on release. The only thing we can really judge at the moment is the initial box sales, and based on my points above, I see initial box sales doing very well - hence I do not expect SW:TOR to be a 'failure'.
No, this game will not fail. I do not plan on purcasing this game, but the fact that it is Star Wars + Bioware means that they will probably make back all their money on box sales alone. Not to mention that alot of Star Wars fans will probably purchase / play the game purely because it is Star Wars.
The gameplay itself could "fail" to those expecting an amazing game, or it could end up having very good gameplay.
I would guess that all of our questions will be answered once this game is released. But as for Bioware and EA losing money on this game... not happening.
Well, I think they're relying on AT LEAST the folks that loved Kotor as well as some MMO folks, as well as some SW fans to at least buy the box. So if they made enough in the Kotor games to cover the cost of developing this game, and they get those people, they'll be successful. I personally know a number of people who aren't interested in MMO's, weren't really interested in SWG, but are VERY interested in this game.
As far as sub RETENTION goes, they'll lose subs, from there. And I don't think it'll be as big as WoW. But again, I don't think it'll have to be. I suspect it will be profitable, but not so profitable that the usual group of naysayers from this board won't be able to spin up any bit of negative news as a sign of Epic Fail.
All we can do is wait and see. It's not like the MMO genre has seen nothing but success. The money they're dumping into this game is a pretty big gamble. In this economy, they wouldn't take a risk this big unless they were pretty certain they'd at least get their investment back.
MMO certainly have a nack of belly-dropping. But if you could buy shares in Bioware, now's a good time!
http://www.gdcvault.com/play/1014633/Classic-Game-Postmortem
You can believe that if they sell all those boxes that it will not be a failure. There will be people subbed and enough people for them to draw in massive revenue.
As far as failing as the MMO community is concerned? I couldn't give a rats ass what the MMO community thinks tbh. On MMORPG every game is concidered a failure , unless it is WoW.
I dont know where some of you have gotten the idea that just because an MMORPG is mass marketed that is cannot fail. Let's try that logic on Age of Conan, Warhammer, LOTR, Tabula Rasa, Matrix,SWG, AC2, Fury.
See the money invested into mmorpgs does not mean they want a game that sells great for 3 months and is over with. for the 1,700,000,000+ EA spent buying out MMO companies in the past few years to make a competing mmo, I dont think their looking for a 3 month and out game.
To some (not me), WoW is a failure because it fails to address their own personal requirements. The point is, "failure" can have many definitions to many different people.
To address the OP, financial "failure" would imply that the product fails to recoup the costs in develop and make a profit, whether or not SWTOR will be a financial success or failure cannot be predicted accurately at this time. Chances are though, that the investors will allow for sufficient amount of time before seeing a return on their investment. Otherwise they wouldn't have invested in it in the first place.
Now, as we all know, just because a product is a financial success doesn't necessarily imply that the game will be necessarily popular enough for the community to consider the product a "success".
Therefore, yes this game COULD "fail" both financially and in terms of popularity. But, it has just as much chance at being a success too. Being a well known brand name doesn't guarantee anything. Just ask Richard Garriott and Brad McQuaid about that.
The point is that pPersonally speaking, I still think we don't know enough about the product yet to make an accurate judgement as to its long term prosperity.
Top 10 Most Misused Words in MMO's
Now witness the firepower of this fully armed and operational Bioware game!
I personally won't be playing the game, and there are a lot of AAA mmo's coming out in the next year and a half.
It will be tough to be super successful, especially in this day and age.
The success of World of Warcraft proved this and this alone. What an MMO needs to have large subscription numbers and therefore succeed is a large and rabid fan base that is already built in. The Warcraft franchise and Blizzard had a huge playerbase already established before they put out World of Warcraft. Blizzard and that playerbase had built up a lot of good will which Blizzard then carried over into the making of World of Warcraft. That playerbase adopted and supported World of Warcraft. There was an implicit bargain between Blizzard and that playerbase that went, "Put out a polished and playbel game that meets our expectations and we'll buy and support your game. Blizzard kept up it's part of the bargain by delivering a polished and playable product that fit that playerbase's expectations and then the playerbase kept it's part of the bargain by playing.
Bioware, if it can tap into the large and rabid KOTOR fanbase with SW:TOR, will produce a hit. What do KOTOR fans expect? Story told through NPCs and cut scenes as well as the ability to chose the avatar's destiny. What's SW:TOR got that they're always touting? Story told through NPC and cut scenes along with the ability to chose the avatar's destiny. The only question is if iwill play with the loyal KOTOR following. If Bioware can tap into that audience, they'll do well. If that audience doesn't like it ... Warhammer.
My general sense is that traditional MMO fans will find this as unfulfilling as Warcraft. Why? It's not built to appeal to them. It's built more for an RPG audience that already exists in large numbers and Bioware is trying to turn into monthly junkies.
Many a small thing has been made large by the right kind of advertising.
In this industry, anything that doesn't topple WoW (except EvE) is considered fail it seems.
Activision acquired Blizzard. The CEO of Activsion (Bobby Kdick) is CEO of both companies.
Theres just way tooo big of a Bioware/Star Wars fanbase for it to fail flattt......they would have to do something really REALLY extreme to not make a profit off this
Anything is possible.
Is it likely? I don't think so... but that's me. I don't claim to see the future.
its just how wow started......they had a huge fanbase off warcraft and then the rest of there gamess from blizzard......
just off the fanbase i think itll do fine
i mean even SWG is still carrying on sorta lol......but theres just soo many star wars fans to keep it going