The MMORPG Drought

Awakened · May 2005

So I'm new here and figured I'd introduce myself with a post... I've played MMORPGs sine UO's release, and have played about 9 different MMORPGS since. I regularly keep up-to-date with the market - finding much of my resources from this website, though I've just recently registered.

The reasoning behind the title is a simple pattern that I see developing in the near future. The number of players in ratio to the number of games in comparison to the number of console gamers to the number of MMORPG players is going to cause a drought in the MMORPG industry. The result of this drought could mean several things, but before I get into that I suppose I should explain my thoery a little more in-depth.

While the number of MMO players is rising everyday, as is the number of broadband users, the MMORPG niche market is expanding at an unproportional rate. When there were only 2-3 major MMORPGs in the industry (aka the glory days), there was barely over a million subscribers in the entire market. Today there is probably 4-5 million subscribers in the market, but there's also going to be over 100 games available within two years. Let's say you add a million more subscribers, making it six million, hell, let's say there will be 10 million subscribers, that's still only 100,000 subscribers per game.

Of course only 4-5 games at a given time will be leading the industry. Let's say the leading games hold 70% of the total market. That's 3 millon people supporting over 90 games. 90 games divided by 3 million is 33,333 players. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that 33, 000 subscribers can't keep a legit MMORPG going for a serious duration. And the people playing the hot 4-5 aren't going to leave them for the sub-par/unstable. The result will be a domino effect of games closing their servers. Now, this is where it gets important, so read carefully!

Four years from now, if the market continues to expand at this rate, there will be over 200 MMORPGs in the industry. Since the lead games will be the only ones capable of affording the future's inflated prices (and just so you know, you probably won't be able to afford 3-5 differe online accounts four years from now), and since the other 70-80% of the market will steadily be closing it's doors, publishers are going to lose interest in the market. You see, publishers don't like risk, they want to be assured a refund for the 6-10million dollars they invest, and an unstable market is not a very assuring investment.

The result will be appropriate - a gradual decrease in title releases. But there will also be other side effects. Now at this point, I can't say for certain what these side effects will be, but I do have some ideas:

1) The larger publishers in the industry will begin to slow down or withdraw the new developments all together. This would most likely start a new trend of experimental concepts as the lower budget risk takers try new concepts, but would also lower the overall quality/perfomance of MMORPG standards.

2) The smaller publisher in the industry will back away from the market and try to make a break for single-player games. This would probably keep the standards for MMORPGs high, but to be frank the giants of the industry haven't shown me anything to suggest new cool concepts - I would predict a clone pattern to be developed. I can see it now, "EQ 6!!"

3) The market will boom. I know, after reading everything I just wrote you're probably thinking "uhh, wtf, you just said it was dying!". This is true, but keep in mind we're talking four years from now. Four years from now every console gaming machine will be as friendly to MMORPGs as computers are today, and every new MMORPG will be out on the PS 3 and X-box EX. Thus the low online PC subscriber ratio will be redundant due to a fresh new playerbase of online console gamers. With this new burst of playerbase game devolpers and publishers will try even harder to push for the newest cutting edge game, thus creating an abundance of new games with new ideas and advanced technologies. The older titles would die out very quickly if this were to happen, but the newer titles would take those subscribers and keep the market healthy. Everyone is happy and the world keeps spinning... But I personally see options 1 and 2 are being a little more realistic.

To be honest I've spent too much time typing all this and need to get to work tomorrow, so I think I'll go to bed. But think about it, reply if ya like, good to meet you .

PS - If you see a problem with my math or numbers let me know, I'm confident my case will still be solid.

r0hn · May 2005

What would Alan Greenspan say?

The answer to the drought is a billion screaming MMORPG players from China.

Gideon · May 2005

to long... ::::04::

nethervoid · May 2005

I disagree. The industry is making too much money for it to die. They make so much money just from box sales. No way would the big boys stop making these games.

It's true that the mmog market is bursting at the seems with games. I don't see any evidence of the number of games on the market shrinking unless the smaller companies can't get funding, but the big companies will always be there. It's pretty standard market analysis. The market becomes relatively stable, and a few big players gobble up the majority of the market share. Once that happens, it never goes away. Money keeps them there.

Although I think you're right on about console mmog players. They are the next big audience. I think the games will dumb down even more when that happens. Console gamers don't have the same patience as mmog players. Things have to be NOW! ... which I guess is what's already happening. New games are way dumbed down as it is.

Lt.Deadend · May 2005

Dam man,. you sound like a freind of mine, stop thinking ,.going to burn a fuse or somthing.

The logic is there but,. PC's will allways have that edge,.If anything,.! the consol games will unite with PC online an the market will explode like never befor.

Razorback · May 2005

I agree..... we are in a very low period for MMO's.... the days of games of the quality of UO are very much behind us and its hard to see them ever returning.

Hopefully Brad Mquaid and Marius Enger are going to breath some life back in to the industry's rapidly deteriorating corpse with Vanguard.... only time will tell...

protoroc · May 2005

ugh marius enge is working on vanguard....marius sucks Alien Invasion was the biggest piece of crap

Razorback · May 2005

Yes Marius's presence represents possibly the greatest potential and the greatest threat to this tile. Hopefully BM will keep him in line.

Unknown · May 2005

Originally posted by Awakened

So I'm new here and figured I'd introduce myself with a post... I've played MMORPGs sine UO's release, and have played about 9 different MMORPGS since. I regularly keep up-to-date with the market - finding much of my resources from this website, though I've just recently registered.
The reasoning behind the title is a simple pattern that I see developing in the near future. The number of players in ratio to the number of games in comparison to the number of console gamers to the number of MMORPG players is going to cause a drought in the MMORPG industry. The result of this drought could mean several things, but before I get into that I suppose I should explain my thoery a little more in-depth.

Intresting post. The same topic has been posted before. And even talked about by major game DEVs at other game sites. The current facts, stats, prove there is no drought, and never will be. Some further information that keeps getting left out:

1. SWG - It was the first mmorpg to prove there is no drought. Before it released, many thought the mmorpg market reached maximum players. And would start to cannibalized itself. New games taking players from old games, etc... SWG peaked at over 300k players. Not a single other mmorpg lost substantial numbers of players. This means roughly 250k new players entered the mmorpg market because of SWG.

And rightly so. Star Wars games have millions of fans. Star Wars movies have even more millions of fans. ( figure 100 million movie fans. 25 million stand alone game fans.) SWG would have kept growing but shot itself in the foot over the Jedi fiasco. SWG still has failed to aggressivly market itself towards the millions of SW fans out there! Heck, even MxO found the money to market iteself in movie theaters!!!

2. WoW - Blizzard already has 20 million + fans worldwide. They all play online. It is a very tiny step to get them to not only play a new online game, but to pay for it. All WoW needed to do was what SWG did - tap into a fraction of the fans they already have. Blizzard so far has done a better job at this than SOE/LucasArts. WoW so far has peaked at roughly 1 million players. Not a single other mmorpg lost substantial numbers of players. This means roughly 900k new players entered the mmorpg market!!! WoW has litterally doubled the number of mmorpg players!!!

3. Do you know who Lord British is? (aka Richard G.) He and Raph Koster are the most experienced mmorpg game DEVs on the entire planet. Lord British is the most successful computer game maker in the history of computers. Lord British remarked in an interview how he can't wait for the millions of WoW players to finnish getting used to WoW, before they move on the other games in the mmorpg market! And he is right! He understands the points, and information, I am listing.

4. PC BANGS. I was the first to bring attention to this. Sir Bruce finally noticed and posted about this on his website (yeah yeah, even though he never gave mention to the fact I was the first one to bring attention to this LOL! ) With the advent of PC Bangs, it is impossible for MMORPGs to ever die, or experience a drought. Right now in NYC, in Queens, the biggest PC Bang in America has just opened. There are also more in Manhattan, on 32nd street (between 5th Ave and Broadway). There are even some along 5th Ave, (on the side of 5th Ave opposite the Empire State Building...between 32nd street and 38th street).

MMORPGs are still growing. It is still an industry not yet in its teens. Equivilant right now to a 12 year old kid in terms of how far mmorpgs have come, and how much more potiential they have in the future. The main problems current and future mmorpgs face, are things that threaten to slow their growth:

- Out of touch money men. The suits and ties. They could care less about the games they finance. All they care about is the bottom line. They are impatient, even if it means getting less profits vs being more patient and waiting longer. They are greedy, which is ok. But they are also overgreedy which is not good at all.

- Lack of balls to use new ideas. Some of the fault is with game DEVs. Many settle for an easy paycheck by making clones. Or by not sticking to their guns and letting nice new ideas get tossed. Some of the fault is with the... moneymen! The suits and ties who are sooo pathetic, soo paranoid, they do not realize it is they theirselves who kill their own projects by choking the game DEVs into submission. Not trying new ideas. Not keeping in the game at relase what the game is suppose to have.

- Not enough PC Bangs in the "civilized world". Funny thing... "third world" countries have better computer access for the masses than "first world" countries! The USA is in the dark ages vs Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. In America, it does not matter if you are rich. If the goverment in your city, town, state, does not invest in fiber optic connection, or any other nice internet connection, you are stuck with 56k. No American knows about investing in opening PC Bangs. And how to market them! There is a market for them!

-Personal Website (A Work still in progress):
http://www.geocities.com/xplororor/index.html

-AC, AC2, AO, EQ, Freelancer, SWG:
http://community.webshots.com/user/xplororor

-More SWG:
http://community.webshots.com/user/captain_sica_xol

-More EQ, Dungeon Siege, *UXO*, Diablo II:Lords of Destruction:
http://community.webshots.com/user/xplororor_archives01

-EverQuest II, Horizons:
http://community.webshots.com/user/xplororor_eq2archives01

-EVE Online !!!
http://community.webshots.com/user/sica_xol_archives01

-DAoC
http://community.webshots.com/user/sica_xol_archives02

-Coming sooner or later... CoH, WoW, MXO, UO, GW, As3, RS

ianubisi · May 2005

A preposterous theory. The numbers of subscriptions for MMO games has been on the rise since their inception and has never seen a dip. I am firmly convinced this trend will continue as more diversity is brought into the fold which taps further into the market of gamers who have not yet tried a MMOG. We have barely scratched the surface of this genre, barely begun to see how it can fit into the fold of entertainment as a whole.

The bean counters absolutely love annuity revenue models, which is precisely what the MMOG subscription model is. It is a forecastable rate of revenue, with a trending rate of growth or decline. When you couple that with the retail POS influx of capital you have a sound financial model to offset the costs of production and maintenance. Like any game on the market, regardless of genre, the success of the title is paramount. But a successful MMOG represents mammoth amounts of income for developer and publisher alike.

This is the future of gaming, on all fronts. It will penetrate all markets, console, computer, handheld, and very likely other avenues we aren't even aware of yet. A pay-to-play model makes financiers exceptionally happy, and if they can continue to provide content that stimulates and excites gamers they will continue to be able to leverage that subscription from our wallets year after year.

twhint · May 2005

I think you're a little off on a couple of your points.

1. You're stating that other mmorpg's didn't lose numbers and so are assuming that those numbers must be new players, while in fact the majority were players from other MMORPG's who played SWG /at the same time/ as they played the other games. I'm willing to bet that it wasn't an inconsiderable number. While I agree SWG attracted a lot of new faces into the mmorpg market, I think you're overstating your numbers. A minor point, as SWG is the same as an other MMORPG in that it has new players and turnover. But the question is, which is higher? Also, there's the question of retention in the mmorpg market as a whole. Does the person who joined SWG because of Star Wars want to play a different game based on D&D? Or, does a person with a bad experience with SOE's rendition of Star Wars want to risk another of their games?

2. Again, you're overstating your numbers. You're not taking into account that there are multi-mmorpg gamers out there. Or multi-account players. The number is still quite substantial though, and I agree with you on this point.

3. This is a purely subjective statement. One could argue that Brad Mcquaid is also highly experienced. Also the guys behind Meridian 59, any of the people behind the original text based MUDs, etc.

4. You're overlooking the fact that the reasons PC bangs are so popular in 3rd world countries is the lack of connectivity to the internet through homes, not to mention the general lack of a computer. Here in the US and other developed countries, internet access is the norm, rather than the exception, with computers being widespread and cheap. Most homes will have at least a dialup connection and high speed connections are becoming more widespread and affordable. So internet cafes, or PC Bangs, become redundant. They will have their niche, but I don't think they will be as popular in the US as you seem to think.

nethervoid · May 2005

Originally posted by twhint

4. You're overlooking the fact that the reasons PC bangs are so popular in 3rd world countries is the lack of connectivity to the internet through homes, not to mention the general lack of a computer. Here in the US and other developed countries, internet access is the norm, rather than the exception, with computers being widespread and cheap. Most homes will have at least a dialup connection and high speed connections are becoming more widespread and affordable. So internet cafes, or PC Bangs, become redundant. They will have their niche, but I don't think they will be as popular in the US as you seem to think.

/signed

Internet gaming cafes are a bad business model. Why would I pay to play games there, when I can spend half the money, and play at home? Every one of these that I have seen start up lasts approximately 3 months, give or take. Also, I have never actually seen anybody in these places playing any games. They're empty. Well they're empty on the west coast anyway. We have had solid cable, DSL, (and for the lucky bastards) and fiber connections for a LONG time now.

Noubourne · May 2005

900,000 subscribers to WoW? I thought those were box sales rates?

Any recent numbers on actual active subscriptions?

hapwned · May 2005

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that 33, 000 subscribers can't keep a legit MMORPG going for a serious duration.

Depends on what you define as legit. Not all games need to be aim for 100,000 subscribers to be able to cover ongoing costs. I also think you give too much credit to this PC bang and internet cafe thing. Internet cafes already had their day here and it isnt a successful business.

Sphinxter · May 2005

Yep, some games will FLOPP, some will be more successful than others, some will appeal to a nich

Awakened · May 2005

Lot of interesting posts, I'll respond when I have time. Though I have to tell you I think most of you missed my point, and just so there isn't any confusion, try to direct responses to the appropriate person, lol. Gets confusing when people respond to someone w/ a statement that was made in-reference by someone else.

UDTrunks · May 2005

Lots of intresting points were made in your post. But im going to ahve to say I disagree with the idea of a mmorpg drought. Yes, many new commers are being attracted in to this era of online gaming and im sure that the publishers are well aware of this increase. As the number of people increase then technology that goes into a game increase. Each new game becomming better and better. So I think that as the numbers increase servers will be able to hold more people, have more servers and just acommodate more people. So I say as more people come the industry advances aswell. Making it possible to accomadate all of these people into their games.

Hifructose · May 2005

I got to the part about 33,000 players not being enough, so games shutting down servers, etc. and it made me wonder what those calculations would look like if you factored in the fact that many games released in the future will allow players to buy virtual items, reality, and who knows what.

I guess you have to consider currency and items would probably cost a lot less being sold by the games company, but this could be pretty unpredictable. imagine those guys guys that dropped 5,000 here and there on a diablo 2 item (I know it's not a mmorpg).

And really, you could say users would spend less on virtual currency since it costs less, but I'm sure many will see no reason not to drop 50 bucks on currency simply because now it gives you 5 times as much. I really have no idea, but I thought I would add something to the mix.

I AM NOT AN ECONOMIST!

Awakened · May 2005

I actually didn't take into account games that will try to fund themselves with real money to virtual money transfers... If it's anything like Magic the Gathering: Online, then it could work pretty well, lol.

Awakened · May 2005

I actually didn't take into account games that will try to fund themselves with real money to virtual money transfers... If it's anything like Magic the Gathering: Online, then it could work pretty well, lol.

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