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A Telling Sign as to How Rift Will Do Post Launch
Preface this by saying, I am an MMO Fan. I typically see the pro's and con's of every MMO. I am usually not a jaded person (except in STO's case). I have tried almost every AAA title since EQ, and have played many for multiple months. I love the genre.
What I have noticed over the years of visiting this site religiously is this... Each game garners certain hype and a hype rating is set. The concepts of a game get people excited and games usually start out very hyped. The score will change based on exciting sounding concepts newly announced and/or some horrible decision made by the developer. but where this gets very telling and interesting is after two events. the dropping of an NDA and the widespread trial of the game. At those points you tend to see one of two things happen. Either a games score starts tanking because the facts are coming out and people have tried the game and found it in need, or the score starts going up as people are enjoying it and find the game to be acceptable.
This score fluxuation is a good sign as to how the game will do and how well it will maintain subs (at least for the first few months). Look back at the hype score of games released in the last 5 years, and how that score changed after people had actually tried the game, and you'll see an almost perfect match to how well or how poorly the game did upon release.
In Rifts case, its interesting to find that the score has been creeping up since this last beta 4 event weekend. This was the first weekend that was readily available to most anyone who wanted to try it. I cant help but think this only reflects good things for Rift's launch and short term success.
Comments
Yeah you also have to factor in all the haters that mark it a 1.0 just because they can.
a lot of dcuo shills did that... i got the email but said no no no
Yep. but thats the thing. There are haters for every AAA title since WoW (meaning haters seem to be a new trend in the last 5 years). And even though the haters are doing what they do best, the score still seems to go up. That means there are a whole lot of people out there impressed with this title.
This game is very similar to WAR so I expect it to perform quite similar. Sell maybe a million boxes but then, after 6 months, dwindle down to less than 200k subs and dropping.
I may be wrong but I think that is what MMORPG producers expect these game to perform in the future. A pretty good box sales and then to get a decent amount of sub revenue for a few months and then just a small income for a year or so until it then goes F2P.
MMORPGs are simply not the games they used to be. Today they are more like single player games with an added bonus, for the devs, in the form of a sub fee and/or cash shop, to make more money.
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Actually, in Rift's case hype suddenly goes down with each start of BETA phases. Then it slowly goes up...
And the blind fanbots who mark it 1o. Outliers in any sample are suspect.
haters = people who does not like the game?
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I agree through all 4 beta events it's stayed fairly stable dropped a bit with beta 2 there were some issues with silverwood screen tearing ect. Whether you can really take anything from it I don't know time will tell I guess.
This sounds about right... though I would say 500,000-750,000 boxes, down to about 200,000 users by the start of month 4. it will drop fast from there though. All imo ofc.
Sell a million boxed copies??? Not a chance this game is jumping out of the gate selling a million copies. WAR did that because WAR was Warhammer. Trion is not building this on an established IP. They will sell a modest amount (300k-500k) of boxes and slowing go up based on word of mouth.
No. Haters are people who dont like the game AND find it important to spread the hate beyond the norm. It becomes their agenda to do whatever harm they can to the game by badmouthing it.
Yeah I've seen the game bounce all over the 8.0-8.5 range. Which is good. The game isn't over hyped. It's a good game in most aspects.. I'm not pulling the beta card or anything but the game is still "new". No one has gotten the chance to really test the limits of everything in the game as much as possible besides the select permenant alpha/beta testers.
When problems do come up after release I have 100% confidence in the support/dev team to fix this issues in a appropriate amount of time.
Two major reasons why I believe this game will succeed over most other recent MMOs.
1. Trion has amazing customer service and dev support and I believe that's one of their main selling points (So they'll keep up with it)
2. It's an American made game. So no westernization crap. We get what WE want and the "asian/etc" community has to adapt to our liking for the most part.
RIFT will never reach WoW numbers.. No MMO will ever reach those numbers again. Not even another Blizzard title. With the Aion community withering out (Which alone is over 2 million subscribers worldwide) and TERA not being released probably within this year it'll drive the true MMO community to find another game AKA Rift.
That does not make much sense to me. If you dont like a product then you may tell your friends, or even in internet forums, that you dont like it. That is not beyond norm, that is normal.
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You may be right, as WAR had the whole Warhammer IP to hype on. So initial box sales for Rift will probably be lower. The retention will probably be much the same though.
Unless they produce some fantastic end game to keep people playing. But I havent heard anything yet so...
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Beyond normal is when those players that disliked what they played go to every post telling players not to preorder or even stretching the truth about issues in game.
For example: Say there is 2 botters in a area. Some players will say they are overrun by botters. I mean come on? Lol.
This was just an EXAMPLE.
ok, lets try a different approach...
A hater tends to only focus on the bad, never mentioning the good. They also tend to over exagerate the bad to make it sound worse. ie. "All this game is is Warhammer reskinned. Nothings changed!" that is obviously a lie and an exageration.
This thread made me look at Rift rating again & all I can say is; "Hype rating manipulation much?"
I feel that there's a group of people really working on it right now.
In any case, I'll pass on this one & I predict OP is wrong. The game will have less than 200K players within 4-6 months. Still, its enough to keep playing it if you like the game I guess.
Have fun with the annoying rifts/invasions & the most boring on rail quests I ever seen though... if its your thing, who am I to argue.
People that will excagurate exists and it works both ways. Some people will exagurate the shortcomings some other will do the same for the positive aspects. There is always a flipside to any coin.
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Playing: Rift, LotRO
Waiting on: GW2, BP
Is it safe to say that WoW created the "hater"?
I really can't remember one instance back in my original EQ days where people would sit in chat spamming "UO IZ DA BES!"
No seriously, I cannot remember the MMO community being this bad till WoW was about 1 year old.. Now ratings and reviews are biased and skewed, theres a constant split between so called "fanboys" of a game and the "haters" who want nothing more but to tear down whatever positive feelings anyone has toward a game..
It really sickens me to my stomach the trash that WoW bought to the community.. This is really what is leading the charge in the "solo only" mindset that people have.. Ask them.. Many of them will reference WoW and the raiding douchebags they have come across.. Hell one guy I seen on an article on MMOSITE, purchased like 10 computers and bought multiple copies of WoW and expansions JUST TO RAID BY HIMSELF..
What the hell have they done to the once tightly knit core of MMO gamers in the community.. Why do I always feel like I have to ignore the general chat in every game I play because of arguments stemming from "My MMO is better than yours, but I am not playing that one because I'd rather bother you in yours"?
Sadly enough, there is no cleanup of this mess.. I think it will only go downhill from here..
I see you also have the magic 8 ball in your posession.
Seems it gets passed around like jiffy on a reggea festival.
Yep, your right. But that wasnt the point. You asked to define hater. We all would agree that on the other side fanboys exist.
Look. There are normal people who like and don't like this game. MANY fall in this category. Its the fringe of both sides that become annoying.
The game already is seeing a large amount of preorders.. With still 2 months to go. Every preorder from D2D is a guaranteed order because it cannot be refunded so those are set in stone. Alot of players went the D2D route because of the 20% off sale they had running. Alot of preorders are also pushing through because it's guaranteed BETA access.
Trion is also running a nice sale on the 6 month subscription package that alot of players are going to utilize. 9.99$/mo for 6 months. I don't expect to see the sub numbers drop off until atleast after the 6 month mark and that's only if the game fails within that time.
I agree with you. Before WoW, the MMO community was made up of CRPG fans who LOVED the MMO games being released. WoW's popularity changed that. It brought it into the mainstream. I would blame WoW the game though.
Not at all. You can't even compare this game to warhammer online.
Warhammer Online just failed misserably, because people were constantly lagging and crashing out of the game.
The whole PVE experience in WAR was extremely lack luster, with pretty much all dungeons being undoable and bugged to hell! Which stayed that way for months, even longer!
The only thing that worked somewhat properly in WAR were the Scenarios lol. So please.
RIFT has what WAR and AOC didn't have! A well coded, very polished game! And that in beta already.
I say it again. When RIFT is launched, TRION Worlds can immediately start work on expanding the game and keep adding new content! Instead of spending the first 2 years fixing a broken buggy game!
AoC and WAR blew it, chased away almost their entire initial playerbase. Angry and Frustrated! All people that won't forget being cheated out and won't come back.
RIFT will launch highly polished and complete. So people who buy it will enjoy it. And when for some reason they get bored after 1,2, 3 months... you take your pick. They will come back, when more features and content is added. As they left the game satisfied and with good memory!
Just like how ex-WoW players keep coming back to WoW with each expansion and game update. Just like how ex-LOTRO players keep coming back with each Book update. Etc. Etc.
And in between they keep and sustain a high enough loyal fanbase, who continue to enjoy the game for what it is and keep subscribed.
And that's the big difference here.