Anyone with half a brain will understand that when doing a survey, people use a sample and they don't question every single person in the WORLD.
They also know that pretty much every survey ever done has been extremely flawed.
Statistics are only as good as the data sampling you employ. There will always be a level of error is statistics, but the better the data sample paramaters the lower the error.
Well, if you're going in all the way, and presume that Xfire figures are a fairly accurate indication of total player numbers of a game (which ofc hasn't been proven) and can be compared with eachother, then it'd go something like this:
- EVE has a sub numbers that's pretty solid and public. It has 340k subs = 2,000 XFire users
- Rift has 5000 XFire users, so that'd mean about 2.5 * 340k = 850k Rift players at the moment
- LotrO has about 2,000 XFire users, so that'd mean 300-350k players
- WoW has about 36k Xfire users, so that'd mean about 6 million players
If you use the rule-of-thumb that an MMORPG server has on average 10k players attached to it, then this'd lead to Rift having about 1 million players.
We'll see how close these figures are or not whenever official data is released.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
All new games have a peak in their first few weeks of start on xFire. After a couple of months you'll see the numbers even down to a 'normal' usage state on xFire. Then and only then you can draw conclusions from xFire numbers, and not right now.
Just look at Age of Conan (highest #4), Lord of the Rings online (highest #8) and Star Trek online (highest #19). All highests are just a couple of months after release (LotRo after going Freemium) and all dropped down (LotRo not that much though).
I have a theory. Notice Rift was at #4? Now could this be caused by the fact that this game HEAVILY appeals to a WoW population angry at Blizzard?
I know x-fire was popular with WoW and the idea goes that if they move then they carry x-fire with them.
Well people in mmo c forums have pointed out that wow census has shown the biggest decline in WoW population in last months the largest drop WoW has seen in a while (granted when Cata launched the population was at its peak in NA).
It could be due to many reasons not just Rift: people getting burnt out with cata (it took 5+ months after previous xpacs for population to drop), most of population gain blizzard saw with cata are ex WoW players who came to check it out etc.
I don't use XFire nor does anyone I know. I'm not sure what those numbers really show anymore.
Same here. I don't bother with it. I also do not know anyone who does these days. One wonders what the motivation of some of these posters is.
As has been said in this thread (and others) is that while xfire is terrible at measuring absolute numbers, its pretty good at measuring trends. If they game is declining on xfire you can be pretty certain the game is declining over all.
"Certain"? This flies in the face of even basic statistics, but I guess people will believe what they wish to...
It is better than using VGChartz numbers and basing that for pop numbers.
Why bother with either? Its not like its going to make the game more entertaining, or less so for those of us who are enjoying it. I've never seen the point of some of this.
<p>Wasters comparing xfire with older games now. Look at rift in 6 months time and see if the launch numbers hold up into long-term game play. My guess is that they will halve or more.
Well, if you're going in all the way, and presume that Xfire figures are a fairly accurate indication of total player numbers of a game (which ofc hasn't been proven) and can be compared with eachother, then it'd go something like this:
- EVE has a sub numbers that's pretty solid and public. It has 340k subs = 2,000 XFire users
- Rift has 5000 XFire users, so that'd mean about 2.5 * 340k = 850k Rift players at the moment
- LotrO has about 2,000 XFire users, so that'd mean 300-350k players
- WoW has about 36k Xfire users, so that'd mean about 6 million players
If you use the rule-of-thumb that an MMORPG server has on average 10k players attached to it, then this'd lead to Rift having about 1 million players.
We'll see how close these figures are or not whenever official data is released.
Wasters comparing xfire with older games now. Look at rift in 6 months time and see if the launch numbers hold up into long-term game play. My guess is that they will halve or more.
Everything shows that Rift is a game marketed on the web, through the web and by the web. From rather low retail sales to not having the usual 12% Xfire market share at launch (like Aoc, War and Aion) and being heavely ridden on forum hype.
The game is not mass market in retail and that's obvious. For a small company and having no Lore at all, it did pretty well, but those saying that it reaches anything beyond War for example is plain crazy.
You will see with the upcoming real big launches of SW:TOR, GW2 and Diablo3 the difference with Xfire numbers too.
Because retail only makes small portion of total sales for MMOs both DCU and CO sold over 350k but didn't even make a blimp in retail sales.
As for SWTOR, GW2 and Diablo they won't launch any time till Winter so you might have to wait a while
Wasters comparing xfire with older games now. Look at rift in 6 months time and see if the launch numbers hold up into long-term game play. My guess is that they will halve or more.
Everything shows that Rift is a game marketed on the web, through the web and by the web. From rather low retail sales to not having the usual 12% Xfire market share at launch (like Aoc, War and Aion) and being heavely ridden on forum hype.
The game is not mass market in retail and that's obvious. For a small company and having no Lore at all, it did pretty well, but those saying that it reaches anything beyond War for example is plain crazy.
You will see with the upcoming real big launches of SW:TOR, GW2 and Diablo3 the difference with Xfire numbers too.
Because retail only makes small portion of total sales for MMOs both DCU and CO sold over 350k but didn't even make a blimp in retail sales.
As for SWTOR, GW2 and Diablo they won't launch any time till Winter so you might have to wait a while
Unless Mass Effect 3 is delayed, TOR won't be releasing in the winter. They wouldn't release two major titles at the same time.
Using Xfire and other sources one can say the following for the US/EU market.
EVE 250K atm
Wow 4.M+ atm
Rift 400K atm (the 7.5 to 1 ratio with WOW is really a 10 to 1 because a new game is simply played more during the honeymoon, the same counts for EVE and Lotro vs Rift).
Lotro 250K atm - but hey no subs.
Rift servers are clearly not capable of holding 10K accounts per server since it is new and 30% of all players are always on line at prime time. Their limited server capacity has been well explained by numurous sources and check ups.
Utter BS, mate
First of all, EVE Online has over 340k subs, second of all you're saying that Rift has even less server capacity than servers had of MMORPG's of 10 years ago, and less capacity than a DAoC and WAR that use the same engine, but an older, lesser version of it - and we're talking about a game here that has no trouble at all showing fights a hundred and more people fighting with less lag than most other MMO's.
EVERY MMORPG since EQ, AC and DAoC 10 years ago has had a server capacity that could handle10-30k accounts, and here you're saying that Rift suddenly wouldn't have. If you can't see how ludicrous your claim is then I can't help you, mate.
The only people that are claiming that Rift has one of the worst server capacity in the history of MMO's are people who hate Rift with a passion, if you see yourself as being one of them, then sure, I totally see your viewpoint.
Your comment about WoW is just as much made up with no backing at all as all your other figures.
Originally posted by Illyssia
Wasters comparing xfire with older games now. Look at rift in 6 months time and see if the launch numbers hold up into long-term game play. My guess is that they will halve or more.
Better than wasters complaining about it, you mean?
Everyone knows that numbers will be less than launch a few months down the road, that's as obvious an observation as they can get.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Wasters comparing xfire with older games now. Look at rift in 6 months time and see if the launch numbers hold up into long-term game play. My guess is that they will halve or more.
Everything shows that Rift is a game marketed on the web, through the web and by the web. From rather low retail sales to not having the usual 12% Xfire market share at launch (like Aoc, War and Aion) and being heavely ridden on forum hype.
The game is not mass market in retail and that's obvious. For a small company and having no Lore at all, it did pretty well, but those saying that it reaches anything beyond War for example is plain crazy.
You will see with the upcoming real big launches of SW:TOR, GW2 and Diablo3 the difference with Xfire numbers too.
Because retail only makes small portion of total sales for MMOs both DCU and CO sold over 350k but didn't even make a blimp in retail sales.
As for SWTOR, GW2 and Diablo they won't launch any time till Winter so you might have to wait a while
Unless Mass Effect 3 is delayed, TOR won't be releasing in the winter. They wouldn't release two major titles at the same time.
It was confirmed as September 2011 but there were speculation (not confirmed) that is open beta date and with release in 1 to 2 months after that.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Wasters comparing xfire with older games now. Look at rift in 6 months time and see if the launch numbers hold up into long-term game play. My guess is that they will halve or more.
Everything shows that Rift is a game marketed on the web, through the web and by the web. From rather low retail sales to not having the usual 12% Xfire market share at launch (like Aoc, War and Aion) and being heavely ridden on forum hype.
The game is not mass market in retail and that's obvious. For a small company and having no Lore at all, it did pretty well, but those saying that it reaches anything beyond War for example is plain crazy.
You will see with the upcoming real big launches of SW:TOR, GW2 and Diablo3 the difference with Xfire numbers too.
Because retail only makes small portion of total sales for MMOs both DCU and CO sold over 350k but didn't even make a blimp in retail sales.
As for SWTOR, GW2 and Diablo they won't launch any time till Winter so you might have to wait a while
TOR and GW2 perhaps by winter 2011. I'd not expect D3 until some time next year. But none of them will be the One True Game(tm). I plan to try them all, but I'm not looking for anything but an entertaining game these days. Thats why I enjoy Rift. Its entertaining.
Wasters comparing xfire with older games now. Look at rift in 6 months time and see if the launch numbers hold up into long-term game play. My guess is that they will halve or more.
Everything shows that Rift is a game marketed on the web, through the web and by the web. From rather low retail sales to not having the usual 12% Xfire market share at launch (like Aoc, War and Aion) and being heavely ridden on forum hype.
The game is not mass market in retail and that's obvious. For a small company and having no Lore at all, it did pretty well, but those saying that it reaches anything beyond War for example is plain crazy.
You will see with the upcoming real big launches of SW:TOR, GW2 and Diablo3 the difference with Xfire numbers too.
Not mass market at all... except for being on/near the top of the sales charts for Amazon.com, Gamestop.com, and various sites that provide digital downloads. Not to mention those who bought it directly from Trion.
So, yeah... not mass market at all. Everything apparantly shows that you have no idea what you're talking about.
Rift cant be doing that bad. Watched 10 copies of Rift get placed in WalMart(Right next to Cataclysm). The following day all the Rift copies were gone. The Cataclysm copies were still there.
I would imagine Xfire would be used a lot more by the younger audience that is attracted to games like AoC and Aion. Rift with its traditional EQ1/EQ2/VG background would appeal to a more traditional and older audience and likel;y would not represent itself well in comparison on Xfire to games that are more aimed at the kiddie audience like AoC. But it can be very useful in showing treands while not a good estimator of overall subs. But agian it can be a good barometer of the overall health of a game.
Xfire is simply a joke nowadays. Noone can really use it for any real measurement. More then 50% of the people that used Xfire have left within the last year. The product is rapidly bleeding users and with new services like Raptr and Steam improving its product. Xfire has been pushed to a product that is simply not needed or wanted by most gamers.
Trying to use the info Xfire provides for any real fact based means of telling how popular a game is like pulling numbers out of the air. Noone knows how many actual people use Xfire. Noone knows how many play RPGs, MMORPGs, Shooters, ect out of that number. Noone other then the Xfire company and they are not going to give out that information as it will be telling how many people use xfire.
With multiple programs providing the same if not better product then Xfire why would anyone keep using it?
SAdly to say, the only thing this shows is the numbers at which X-fire users have, thats it. I don't know anyone who uses it, and I wish more people did use it so we could get some good data, but unfortunalty the data is obsolete and really means nothing.
I have also notivced that a more younger crowed uses xfire and for older, more veteran gamers, they do not use xfire. Xfire is just not consistent enough with gamers across the board to make any judgement on how many people are playing a game, it just shows how many xfire users are playing a game. Nothing conclusive, no proof, just more useless data used poorly.
Thank you for the link. And now we will see if so called "polish" has anything to do with the rentention rate of a new MMORPG that simply copies WOW.
As can be seen War had still 8802 Xfire players after 6 weeks, but dropping from 14K players at launch.
The hours played (displayed on the graph) went from 75K to 42K between week 2 and week 6.
As somebody from Xfire himself posted recently, the number of all Xfire players dropped around 50% over the last year.
So that means those 14K at War's launch period can not be taken in relation to the 5K of Rift at todays views.
It will be interesting how the next 4 weeks will play out.
The question is simple: will a game with a better polish hold it out much longer with Xfire players or not?
I'm sorry, but this means nothing to me. Why would it matter what happens with xfire players? They don't represent enough of a population of the game to have good data, it just represents xfire, thats it.
Xfire is simply a joke nowadays. Noone can really use it for any real measurement. More then 50% of the people that used Xfire have left within the last year. The product is rapidly bleeding users and with new services like Raptr and Steam improving its product. Xfire has been pushed to a product that is simply not needed or wanted by most gamers.
You can find somewhat similar data vis-a-vis Rift from Steam as well as from Xfire. Not that it would actually mean anything, but the data is consistent. The number of people playing Rift through Steam has gone from roughly 16,000 concurrent users at peak to around 9,000 users it has at the moment. With Steam this quite likely tells from the reduced hours played by an individual player.
I think that the data is too sporadic at the moment for anyone to make even slighly enlightened guess when it comes to number of people subscribed to the game. Outside Trion, that is. I think that Trion would have released information if there would have been some truely significant milestone passed (say, one million active accounts) which is the only solid fact one can have on this particular debate.
This all leads then to another discussion from the characteristics of those playing the game. If the amount of hours played is plummeting does this imply that the amount of players is as well, or does this nose-dive have more to do with the fact that people are now playing more manageable amounts. Have people effectively halved their hours played since the launch or is part of the nearly halved statistics to be explained by reduced number of people playing. Most likely both.
The last conclusion is one that is haunting to Rift. If they are already now losing any number of players it seems rather unlikely that they will break the trend where MMOGs reach their peak somewhere around the second week of release after which the amount of players plateaus to somewhat lower level. It would suggest that even a truely polished and enjoyable game is not enough to challenge this market law of late. Whether this trend will change through positive buzz around the game is too early to tell, but I'd dare to say that atleast the trend of constant growth from the first month onwards can be ruled out already by now.
I don't see how this can be a surprise for anyone. All MMOs after Wow have lost population after they launch, some people buy it in hopes they will like it but they don't.
What matters is what happens for the next year instead, will the playerbase continue to plummet or start to raise again? A really successful game will raise itself so it has more players than at launch after a year.
You can find somewhat similar data vis-a-vis Rift from Steam as well as from Xfire. Not that it would actually mean anything, but the data is consistent. The number of people playing Rift through Steam has gone from roughly 16,000 concurrent users at peak to around 9,000 users it has at the moment. With Steam this quite likely tells from the reduced hours played by an individual player.
You also have to take into consideration what day is compared with what day. Weekend evenings tradtionally have higher peaks than weekdays. Is the number of Steam users per game something that you can see via a weblink, or how can you determine these concurrent Steam users?
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Comments
They also know that pretty much every survey ever done has been extremely flawed.
Statistics are only as good as the data sampling you employ. There will always be a level of error is statistics, but the better the data sample paramaters the lower the error.
Well, if you're going in all the way, and presume that Xfire figures are a fairly accurate indication of total player numbers of a game (which ofc hasn't been proven) and can be compared with eachother, then it'd go something like this:
- EVE has a sub numbers that's pretty solid and public. It has 340k subs = 2,000 XFire users
- Rift has 5000 XFire users, so that'd mean about 2.5 * 340k = 850k Rift players at the moment
- LotrO has about 2,000 XFire users, so that'd mean 300-350k players
- WoW has about 36k Xfire users, so that'd mean about 6 million players
If you use the rule-of-thumb that an MMORPG server has on average 10k players attached to it, then this'd lead to Rift having about 1 million players.
We'll see how close these figures are or not whenever official data is released.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Well people in mmo c forums have pointed out that wow census has shown the biggest decline in WoW population in last months the largest drop WoW has seen in a while (granted when Cata launched the population was at its peak in NA).
It could be due to many reasons not just Rift: people getting burnt out with cata (it took 5+ months after previous xpacs for population to drop), most of population gain blizzard saw with cata are ex WoW players who came to check it out etc.
http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weeklyfactionactivity.php
Why bother with either? Its not like its going to make the game more entertaining, or less so for those of us who are enjoying it. I've never seen the point of some of this.
<p>Wasters comparing xfire with older games now. Look at rift in 6 months time and see if the launch numbers hold up into long-term game play. My guess is that they will halve or more.
wow incredible how much that actually makes sense
Because retail only makes small portion of total sales for MMOs both DCU and CO sold over 350k but didn't even make a blimp in retail sales.
As for SWTOR, GW2 and Diablo they won't launch any time till Winter so you might have to wait a while
Unless Mass Effect 3 is delayed, TOR won't be releasing in the winter. They wouldn't release two major titles at the same time.
Utter BS, mate
First of all, EVE Online has over 340k subs, second of all you're saying that Rift has even less server capacity than servers had of MMORPG's of 10 years ago, and less capacity than a DAoC and WAR that use the same engine, but an older, lesser version of it - and we're talking about a game here that has no trouble at all showing fights a hundred and more people fighting with less lag than most other MMO's.
EVERY MMORPG since EQ, AC and DAoC 10 years ago has had a server capacity that could handle10-30k accounts, and here you're saying that Rift suddenly wouldn't have. If you can't see how ludicrous your claim is then I can't help you, mate.
The only people that are claiming that Rift has one of the worst server capacity in the history of MMO's are people who hate Rift with a passion, if you see yourself as being one of them, then sure, I totally see your viewpoint.
Your comment about WoW is just as much made up with no backing at all as all your other figures.
Better than wasters complaining about it, you mean?
Everyone knows that numbers will be less than launch a few months down the road, that's as obvious an observation as they can get.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
It was confirmed as September 2011 but there were speculation (not confirmed) that is open beta date and with release in 1 to 2 months after that.
http://www.curse.com/blogs/swtor-en-news/archive/2011/02/01/rumor-star-wars-the-old-republic-releasing-september-2011.aspx
The official launch window that's coming from EA and BW is still in the course of 2011, with the second half of the year being the likeliest.
Any other date is just speculation and rumors, and as seen with the EALouse rumor, they can turn out to be incorrect and wrong.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
TOR and GW2 perhaps by winter 2011. I'd not expect D3 until some time next year. But none of them will be the One True Game(tm). I plan to try them all, but I'm not looking for anything but an entertaining game these days. Thats why I enjoy Rift. Its entertaining.
Fyi for the person who asked earliar, here is old discussion on warhammer and xfire.
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/209183
Not mass market at all... except for being on/near the top of the sales charts for Amazon.com, Gamestop.com, and various sites that provide digital downloads. Not to mention those who bought it directly from Trion.
So, yeah... not mass market at all. Everything apparantly shows that you have no idea what you're talking about.
steam last week had rift at 10k of players
Rift cant be doing that bad. Watched 10 copies of Rift get placed in WalMart(Right next to Cataclysm). The following day all the Rift copies were gone. The Cataclysm copies were still there.
I would imagine Xfire would be used a lot more by the younger audience that is attracted to games like AoC and Aion. Rift with its traditional EQ1/EQ2/VG background would appeal to a more traditional and older audience and likel;y would not represent itself well in comparison on Xfire to games that are more aimed at the kiddie audience like AoC. But it can be very useful in showing treands while not a good estimator of overall subs. But agian it can be a good barometer of the overall health of a game.
Can you give us some concrete examples of "XFire numbers being oddly accurate"?
Xfire is simply a joke nowadays. Noone can really use it for any real measurement. More then 50% of the people that used Xfire have left within the last year. The product is rapidly bleeding users and with new services like Raptr and Steam improving its product. Xfire has been pushed to a product that is simply not needed or wanted by most gamers.
Trying to use the info Xfire provides for any real fact based means of telling how popular a game is like pulling numbers out of the air. Noone knows how many actual people use Xfire. Noone knows how many play RPGs, MMORPGs, Shooters, ect out of that number. Noone other then the Xfire company and they are not going to give out that information as it will be telling how many people use xfire.
With multiple programs providing the same if not better product then Xfire why would anyone keep using it?
SAdly to say, the only thing this shows is the numbers at which X-fire users have, thats it. I don't know anyone who uses it, and I wish more people did use it so we could get some good data, but unfortunalty the data is obsolete and really means nothing.
I have also notivced that a more younger crowed uses xfire and for older, more veteran gamers, they do not use xfire. Xfire is just not consistent enough with gamers across the board to make any judgement on how many people are playing a game, it just shows how many xfire users are playing a game. Nothing conclusive, no proof, just more useless data used poorly.
I'm sorry, but this means nothing to me. Why would it matter what happens with xfire players? They don't represent enough of a population of the game to have good data, it just represents xfire, thats it.
You can find somewhat similar data vis-a-vis Rift from Steam as well as from Xfire. Not that it would actually mean anything, but the data is consistent. The number of people playing Rift through Steam has gone from roughly 16,000 concurrent users at peak to around 9,000 users it has at the moment. With Steam this quite likely tells from the reduced hours played by an individual player.
I think that the data is too sporadic at the moment for anyone to make even slighly enlightened guess when it comes to number of people subscribed to the game. Outside Trion, that is. I think that Trion would have released information if there would have been some truely significant milestone passed (say, one million active accounts) which is the only solid fact one can have on this particular debate.
This all leads then to another discussion from the characteristics of those playing the game. If the amount of hours played is plummeting does this imply that the amount of players is as well, or does this nose-dive have more to do with the fact that people are now playing more manageable amounts. Have people effectively halved their hours played since the launch or is part of the nearly halved statistics to be explained by reduced number of people playing. Most likely both.
The last conclusion is one that is haunting to Rift. If they are already now losing any number of players it seems rather unlikely that they will break the trend where MMOGs reach their peak somewhere around the second week of release after which the amount of players plateaus to somewhat lower level. It would suggest that even a truely polished and enjoyable game is not enough to challenge this market law of late. Whether this trend will change through positive buzz around the game is too early to tell, but I'd dare to say that atleast the trend of constant growth from the first month onwards can be ruled out already by now.
I don't see how this can be a surprise for anyone. All MMOs after Wow have lost population after they launch, some people buy it in hopes they will like it but they don't.
What matters is what happens for the next year instead, will the playerbase continue to plummet or start to raise again? A really successful game will raise itself so it has more players than at launch after a year.
You also have to take into consideration what day is compared with what day. Weekend evenings tradtionally have higher peaks than weekdays. Is the number of Steam users per game something that you can see via a weblink, or how can you determine these concurrent Steam users?
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."