Warcraftrealms.com, while once a great site, has been extremely lackluster for years. The information is extremely inaccurate because it relies on players to download a mod, use the mod ingame to scan everybody in each zone, then upload that data to the website. Oh and that scan is only for that time of the day. All for a chance to win a raffle...
Too few people do this and therefore the website has a huge amount of holes in in data gathering.
While I like the website and it has actually helped me track down some old guildies, warcraftrealms receives too little support from players to be deemed as a relibale source for accurate playerbase numbers.
Sorry OP.
You do realise when companies do political polling, or things like TV or radio ratings, they use a small sample?
The sample size of warcraftrealms is extremely adequate.
There are 1,332,603 level 85 players scanned from the NA realms ALONE. That is an EXCELLENT sample to measure the activity and popularity of WoW.
LOL - I'm sorry but i'm going to still have to say that Warcraftrealms should not be taken as a reliable source for WoW numbers. Have you actually gone to the site? Have you actually looked at their data gathered? They don't even have data for multiple servers which Jason_webb also pointed out. And some servers have so few players on one faction uploading data that it looks like over 95% of the server population plays on a single faction.
Basically my point is this: requiring volunteers to gather the concurrent user figures using broken tools shouldn't be regarded as reliable.
Fuck it - just log onto WoW at 5:00pm PST and compare the servers status with the website data - even then the website won't be accurate.
The trends can be good indicators, but characters not being online as often does not equal a dive in subscriptions. There are plenty of reasons why players are playing less with raid lockouts and longer heroics etc. Blizzard designed Cataclysm so people would play less often and it also works in their favor. When 4.1 hits there will be more people resubbing and running more dungeons for the Valor gear. People will come back just for the loot in ZA/ZG. This has always been the case whenever Blizzard brings out new content or changes badge/emblem values.
It's all about the loot and Blizzard loosens the strings so the average Joe non raider will come back. The non raider makes up far more of the population than anyone else and many are bored with reg/heroic dungeons.
Well, I bought Cata, got to 85, and then it all felt like classic-, tbc-, wotlk-endgame all over again.
just like any other game that has various expansion packs already.... once you clear the latest expansion content, any game becomes the same classic -> xpack 1 -> xpack 2 , etc etc all over again untill new content xpack comes out
Warcraftrealms.com, while once a great site, has been extremely lackluster for years. The information is extremely inaccurate because it relies on players to download a mod, use the mod ingame to scan everybody in each zone, then upload that data to the website. Oh and that scan is only for that time of the day. All for a chance to win a raffle...
Too few people do this and therefore the website has a huge amount of holes in in data gathering.
While I like the website and it has actually helped me track down some old guildies, warcraftrealms receives too little support from players to be deemed as a relibale source for accurate playerbase numbers.
Sorry OP.
You do realise when companies do political polling, or things like TV or radio ratings, they use a small sample?
The sample size of warcraftrealms is extremely adequate.
There are 1,332,603 level 85 players scanned from the NA realms ALONE. That is an EXCELLENT sample to measure the activity and popularity of WoW.
The point is that fewer and fewer people are running the mod, so the data being collecting has big holes in it. Some servers have 1 or no people running the mod anymore.
TheHavok is right about what he said. There just isn't as much data being collected as there once was.
Keep in mind I think there is drop off in population since cataclysm, so I am not saying there isn't a decline. Just that warcraftrealms doesn't really have the information it once did.
I am a long-time "semi-retired" World of Warcraft player--subscribed at the very start, enjoyed it through the first two years or so, but then quit some time before the first expansion and have gone back only sporadically, for a month at a time here and there.
I did not get Cataclysm, but did a quick one-month subscription after its release, just to take a look at the new zones, etc. I enjoyed a little of the new content, but to be honest, it felt empty, even more empty than in the past. I've done little one-month subscriptions to check things out since I quit playing regularly, and things definitely were more quiet in the old zones then during "classic" WoW, but now it feels like a ghost town, even in the newly-redesigned zones.
While there is a lot of talk about how this is a game for new players now, the reality seems to be that it is nearly all top-level players, with only occasional mid-level alts and the rare new player. Dungeon queues across servers help make dungeons more accessible, but the rest of the open-world content is very thinly traveled outside of the top-level zones.
In retrospect, the biggest problem I had with WoW was that the leveling format segregates the player base. When the game was new and everyone was in the middle of leveling up to 60, it wasn't an issue; players were in close proximity, both geographically and in terms of levels, and could easily share content. Now there is a huge chasm separating those who are still leveling up and those who have hit the top levels.
I can't say how well WoW will retain its top level players, because it's been well over four years since I've even seen end-game content. But I can say I do not think they will have as much success retaining newer players as they did when it first launched, and as such, the long-term trend in subscriptions will certainly be down.
The point is that fewer and fewer people are running the mod, so the data being collecting has big holes in it. Some servers have 1 or no people running the mod anymore.
TheHavok is right about what he said. There just isn't as much data being collected as there once was.
Well, that in and of itself may be significant. While there may be some significance to the fact that the mod hasn't been updated in some time, the fact that fewer and fewer people are running it would indicate a decline of some sort, at least among long-time players, if nothing else.
The most concerning trend is in January 2011. As you can see, there is a very sharp decline in Weekly Activity from late December 2010.
For a new expansion, this decline is very unusual. At this point in time, you would be expecting people to have already reached the level cap (level 85) and be working on the end game (i.e. heroics & raids). A declining trend probably indicates that people reached level 85 then stop playing; they are simply not doing heroics, raiding or end-game pvp.
Currently, there are plenty of complaints on the forums about heroics, raids, TB and class balance and the data presented seems to support that there are very significant players' grievances about Cataclysm.
The interesting part is how far this declining trend will go and when will it bottom out? Will the changes in upcoming patches affect this trend? How will new content patches affect it? The data will be most interesting in March and June when clearer pictures of player activity trends should emerge.
Without any official data from Blizzard, this is most objective data we can use. It's not perfectly accurate but it does provide a reliable measurement of the current state of the game. If this thread doesn't get locked or deleted, I'll be back in a couple of months to update this post.
I haven't read the rest of the thread but I'm guessing you didn't even play Cataclysm if you don't understand what happened.
On a 1-10 difficulty scale.. for Wrath
Most Heroics were a 2.
Most Raids were a 5 in current content gear.
Most Hardmodes were an 8.
The ICC buff grossly distorts how easy or hard the hardmodes actually were. Most guilds were further in ICC than they were in TOC. Many casual guilds that would go 5 or 7/12 hICC couldn't go 3/5 hToC
The ICC5s were a 4 at release.
For Cataclysm
Most Heroics were a 5, yeah they were as difficult* as wrath raiding.
Raids were an 8. Many many hICC guilds are barely halfway into wrath raids.
Hardmodes were a 10.
On Cataclysm Difficulty: The problem is that if you were a good player in a group with good players, you did fine. I thoroughly enjoyed my first month in Cata, but as I was playing guildless and casual, I was pugging a lot. Gradually the skill of the pugs went further and further down. People just got dumber and dumber, and as a pugger, it became painful to see the tank eat a GIANT F'ING SNAKE to the face etc etc. Or a healer do so while I was tanking.
Not to mention, they destroyed healing. They have this love/hate/hate/flirt relationship with Disc priest but all healers have come to the same model, or had when I'd finally realized I was quitting mid-January. A resto druid is not the mobile creature it was. It's not even a creature anymore, it's just a cow. The class that changed the least was holy pally because the other healers were dragged, kicking and screaming, into the holy pally model.
Wrath was too easy, but it was closer to the mark of difficulty that a community of casuals, puggers, and people who only think they're good at the game (ty ICC buff) should be playing than Cataclysm.
Spec'ing properly is a gateway drug. 12 Million People have been meter spammed in heroics.
People are getting bored of wow, it will never again see the subscriber numbers it once had. By the time EQ next comes out this game will be so dated it will be lucky to hold one million subs. This coming from a wow player who is seeing the game die from the inside. PVE is the same garbage it has been since TBC ( Atleast they didnt just copy paste raids this expansion i guess.) And PVP is just zerg fest with 2 or 3 op classes who faceroll in arena. Only reason i still play is because i have an 85 of the OPs and every other game sucks the big one PLEASE SAVE US SWTOR AND GW2
The point is that fewer and fewer people are running the mod, so the data being collecting has big holes in it. Some servers have 1 or no people running the mod anymore.
TheHavok is right about what he said. There just isn't as much data being collected as there once was.
Keep in mind I think there is drop off in population since cataclysm, so I am not saying there isn't a decline. Just that warcraftrealms doesn't really have the information it once did.
Unless the people running the mod are quitting and then leaving their servers completely devoid of mod users (unlikely since they're usually the most dedicated), these figures are absolutely perfect.
Just looking at the data trends for Cataclysm made me go, "Oof". Players have basically halved since January. That's a crazy drop off rate.
About half of the total subscribers are in the Chinese market; recently they released WOTLK so it can be assumed that the Chinese market is growing. Therefore, all the subscriber losses are from the Western US/EU market.
600K from 5 million is about 12% decline but it is masked by increased Chinese subs so the actual decline in the Western market should be a lot worse than 12%. A lot of people paid their subscriptions 3 month, 6 months or 1 year in advance so even if they quit they will still show up as active subscribers for some time to come.
For the CEO to come out and admit that things are not going so well, I believe this drop in subscribers is not just merely a slight decline but a cataclysmic contraction in the Western market. Complaints on the forums about empty/dying realms and a rush of changes in recent patches provides anecdotal evidence that things are not going well.
Its obvious that growth in EU and NA has stangated years ago and the growth has been in the vastly less profitable Asia region, mainly China.
...and yet...the company was more profitable accross ALL divisions this quarter?
Lot of factors involved here.
Even if the subs stagnate or shrink, they can still generate massive profits from microtransactions (pets, mounts), character services (transfers, race changes, faction changes) and from Starcraft 2, by integrating more ways for consumers to spend their money, they can keep generating profits even if their subs suffer.
By the second week of December (2008), we were at more than 11.5 million subscribers. For the year, the game grew by over 1.8 million subscribers, which is approximately 18% beyond where it was in December of 2007.
This growth was proportional across all regions, keeping us at a 55-45 split between east and west.
There had been no further press releases about subs until 6 months ago last year, when they announced 12 million
Only 11.4 million more subscribers than EQ1; EQ2; and Vantard combined
If you have any questions please ask. I have moved on to WoW from eq and no longer have any desire to play a dead game. Thank you. (posted by another selling his account in EQ1)
I can think of no other active game who the fans are more rabid to defend at the slightest negative input. I get it to a degree, yes you love a game and want to show support. But just because a large mass of people are doing something doesn't mean it is because of it being a good product, it could be because there is lack of innovative competition in the specific field. Wow has no real solid competition and until it does, it will continue to pull market share.
Comments
LOL - I'm sorry but i'm going to still have to say that Warcraftrealms should not be taken as a reliable source for WoW numbers. Have you actually gone to the site? Have you actually looked at their data gathered? They don't even have data for multiple servers which Jason_webb also pointed out. And some servers have so few players on one faction uploading data that it looks like over 95% of the server population plays on a single faction.
Basically my point is this: requiring volunteers to gather the concurrent user figures using broken tools shouldn't be regarded as reliable.
Fuck it - just log onto WoW at 5:00pm PST and compare the servers status with the website data - even then the website won't be accurate.
The trends can be good indicators, but characters not being online as often does not equal a dive in subscriptions. There are plenty of reasons why players are playing less with raid lockouts and longer heroics etc. Blizzard designed Cataclysm so people would play less often and it also works in their favor. When 4.1 hits there will be more people resubbing and running more dungeons for the Valor gear. People will come back just for the loot in ZA/ZG. This has always been the case whenever Blizzard brings out new content or changes badge/emblem values.
It's all about the loot and Blizzard loosens the strings so the average Joe non raider will come back. The non raider makes up far more of the population than anyone else and many are bored with reg/heroic dungeons.
just like any other game that has various expansion packs already.... once you clear the latest expansion content, any game becomes the same classic -> xpack 1 -> xpack 2 , etc etc all over again untill new content xpack comes out
The point is that fewer and fewer people are running the mod, so the data being collecting has big holes in it. Some servers have 1 or no people running the mod anymore.
TheHavok is right about what he said. There just isn't as much data being collected as there once was.
Keep in mind I think there is drop off in population since cataclysm, so I am not saying there isn't a decline. Just that warcraftrealms doesn't really have the information it once did.
I am a long-time "semi-retired" World of Warcraft player--subscribed at the very start, enjoyed it through the first two years or so, but then quit some time before the first expansion and have gone back only sporadically, for a month at a time here and there.
I did not get Cataclysm, but did a quick one-month subscription after its release, just to take a look at the new zones, etc. I enjoyed a little of the new content, but to be honest, it felt empty, even more empty than in the past. I've done little one-month subscriptions to check things out since I quit playing regularly, and things definitely were more quiet in the old zones then during "classic" WoW, but now it feels like a ghost town, even in the newly-redesigned zones.
While there is a lot of talk about how this is a game for new players now, the reality seems to be that it is nearly all top-level players, with only occasional mid-level alts and the rare new player. Dungeon queues across servers help make dungeons more accessible, but the rest of the open-world content is very thinly traveled outside of the top-level zones.
In retrospect, the biggest problem I had with WoW was that the leveling format segregates the player base. When the game was new and everyone was in the middle of leveling up to 60, it wasn't an issue; players were in close proximity, both geographically and in terms of levels, and could easily share content. Now there is a huge chasm separating those who are still leveling up and those who have hit the top levels.
I can't say how well WoW will retain its top level players, because it's been well over four years since I've even seen end-game content. But I can say I do not think they will have as much success retaining newer players as they did when it first launched, and as such, the long-term trend in subscriptions will certainly be down.
Well, that in and of itself may be significant. While there may be some significance to the fact that the mod hasn't been updated in some time, the fact that fewer and fewer people are running it would indicate a decline of some sort, at least among long-time players, if nothing else.
I haven't read the rest of the thread but I'm guessing you didn't even play Cataclysm if you don't understand what happened.
On a 1-10 difficulty scale.. for Wrath
Most Heroics were a 2.
Most Raids were a 5 in current content gear.
Most Hardmodes were an 8.
The ICC buff grossly distorts how easy or hard the hardmodes actually were. Most guilds were further in ICC than they were in TOC. Many casual guilds that would go 5 or 7/12 hICC couldn't go 3/5 hToC
The ICC5s were a 4 at release.
For Cataclysm
Most Heroics were a 5, yeah they were as difficult* as wrath raiding.
Raids were an 8. Many many hICC guilds are barely halfway into wrath raids.
Hardmodes were a 10.
On Cataclysm Difficulty: The problem is that if you were a good player in a group with good players, you did fine. I thoroughly enjoyed my first month in Cata, but as I was playing guildless and casual, I was pugging a lot. Gradually the skill of the pugs went further and further down. People just got dumber and dumber, and as a pugger, it became painful to see the tank eat a GIANT F'ING SNAKE to the face etc etc. Or a healer do so while I was tanking.
Not to mention, they destroyed healing. They have this love/hate/hate/flirt relationship with Disc priest but all healers have come to the same model, or had when I'd finally realized I was quitting mid-January. A resto druid is not the mobile creature it was. It's not even a creature anymore, it's just a cow. The class that changed the least was holy pally because the other healers were dragged, kicking and screaming, into the holy pally model.
Wrath was too easy, but it was closer to the mark of difficulty that a community of casuals, puggers, and people who only think they're good at the game (ty ICC buff) should be playing than Cataclysm.
Spec'ing properly is a gateway drug.
12 Million People have been meter spammed in heroics.
People are getting bored of wow, it will never again see the subscriber numbers it once had. By the time EQ next comes out this game will be so dated it will be lucky to hold one million subs. This coming from a wow player who is seeing the game die from the inside. PVE is the same garbage it has been since TBC ( Atleast they didnt just copy paste raids this expansion i guess.) And PVP is just zerg fest with 2 or 3 op classes who faceroll in arena. Only reason i still play is because i have an 85 of the OPs and every other game sucks the big one PLEASE SAVE US SWTOR AND GW2
C
Unless the people running the mod are quitting and then leaving their servers completely devoid of mod users (unlikely since they're usually the most dedicated), these figures are absolutely perfect.
Just looking at the data trends for Cataclysm made me go, "Oof". Players have basically halved since January. That's a crazy drop off rate.
http://www.pcgamer.com/2011/05/09/world-of-warcraft-subscriptions-decline-slightly-to-11-4-million-worldwide-new-premium-mount-soon/
About half of the total subscribers are in the Chinese market; recently they released WOTLK so it can be assumed that the Chinese market is growing. Therefore, all the subscriber losses are from the Western US/EU market.
600K from 5 million is about 12% decline but it is masked by increased Chinese subs so the actual decline in the Western market should be a lot worse than 12%. A lot of people paid their subscriptions 3 month, 6 months or 1 year in advance so even if they quit they will still show up as active subscribers for some time to come.
For the CEO to come out and admit that things are not going so well, I believe this drop in subscribers is not just merely a slight decline but a cataclysmic contraction in the Western market. Complaints on the forums about empty/dying realms and a rush of changes in recent patches provides anecdotal evidence that things are not going well.
...and yet...the company was more profitable accross ALL divisions this quarter?
Lot of factors involved here.
Even if the subs stagnate or shrink, they can still generate massive profits from microtransactions (pets, mounts), character services (transfers, race changes, faction changes) and from Starcraft 2, by integrating more ways for consumers to spend their money, they can keep generating profits even if their subs suffer.
the 10 million press release is still available for all to see on the Euro press releases
http://eu.blizzard.com/en-gb/company/press/pressreleases.html?080122
http://eu.blizzard.com/en-gb/company/press/pressreleases.html
no need for conspiracy reasoning
not a press release, Blizzard said this about their 11.5 million subs for a breakdown in Feb 2009
http://ve3d.ign.com/articles/news/44698/Blizzard-On-Sales-StarCraft-II-Beta-Quality-New-MMO
By the second week of December (2008), we were at more than 11.5 million subscribers. For the year, the game grew by over 1.8 million subscribers, which is approximately 18% beyond where it was in December of 2007.
This growth was proportional across all regions, keeping us at a 55-45 split between east and west.
There had been no further press releases about subs until 6 months ago last year, when they announced 12 million
EQ2 fan sites
Only 11.4 million more subscribers than EQ1; EQ2; and Vantard combined
If you have any questions please ask. I have moved on to WoW from eq and no longer have any desire to play a dead game. Thank you. (posted by another selling his account in EQ1)
All good things must come to an end.
I can think of no other active game who the fans are more rabid to defend at the slightest negative input. I get it to a degree, yes you love a game and want to show support. But just because a large mass of people are doing something doesn't mean it is because of it being a good product, it could be because there is lack of innovative competition in the specific field. Wow has no real solid competition and until it does, it will continue to pull market share.