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General: More from the Crystal Ball
SBFord
Former Associate EditorMember LegendaryPosts: 33,129
MMORPG.com's resident swami, Richard Aihoshi, has once again gazed into the crystal ball conveniently located on his desk between mouse and keyboard. In it he has divined a pair of new predictions for the online gaming world that he'd like to share. Check out The Free Zone and see what Richard's prognostications.
As a video gamer back in a bygone age, I developed a strong preference for RPGs. So naturally, when massively multiplayer came along, I was pleased to see that the core play in all the titles I checked out was pretty similar. Indeed, it took virtually no effort for me to adapt. However, since I knew that genres such as action and strategy were at least as popular, I always wondered how long the early dominance of MMORPGs would last.
Read more of Richard Aihoshi's The Free Zone: More from the Crystal Ball.
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Comments
i would love to see a good f2p model for Gods and Heros and would be one of the first in line to sign up and try it out.
speaking of which, im wondering if any companies have even considered not making their games f2p, but using a hybrid model.
first, they could just offer one month free without the cash shop model. but then after that month one would be expected to either buy the game (b2p) or have their account go dormant.
second, they could instead offer, not a b2p, but a sub2play. in other words, not sell the box, cut out the whole physical distribution model entirely, and let folks just sub for a month at a time for however long they wanted.
perhaps with the second model, they could add on some nice, but not game breaking, perks for those who do 'buy' the game. perks could include things like mounts that start at level 1 and level with you, or a basic set of pvp or pve armor that levels with you to a certain point, etc.
its getting expensive, esp. in this economy to be constantly trying out new games. and maybe its time to start playing with some new models besides the 3 available.
"There are at least two kinds of games.
One could be called finite, the other infinite.
A finite game is played for the purpose of winning,
an infinite game for the purpose of continuing play."
Finite and Infinite Games, James Carse
I wouldn't say that non-MMORPGs would necessarily gain in significant popularity to rival MMORPGs in the long term. The way I see games like Dungeon Fighter or Vindictus, they simply fulfill areas that players felt lacking. We've been served the same soup for ages in every new MMO we'd visit. Tab-targetting, non "skill-based" approach, lack of challenging content, etc and very few MMOs have actually managed to move away from this trend, let alone be succesfull at it, it always goes wrong somewhere like in Earthrise or DarkFall. Until then, until a good action MMORPG comes out, games like Dungeon Fighter or Vindictus fills that hole. That's what I think at least, based on my experience.
As for the increase in Chinese MMORPG's popularity, I think it will never happen. China has never really managed to stand out in terms of MMORPGs, they tend to just copy paste the same formula on different game using the same engine that they used 5 years ago. I can think of only 2 Chinese companies that have managed to really enter the western market: Beijing Perfect World (Perfect World, Forsaken World, etc) and TQ Entertainement (Conquer Online, Conquer Online 2.0). The others have been trivial in the West, and will continue to be because China is not an harbinger of innovation and generally offers MMORPGs with a mediocre experience that even older F2P titles continues to defeat without a hinch by offering a much better experience, and a good stream of expansions to keep players interested.
On the other hand, I do expect the Korean market to gain even more relevance here in the West, especially in the "F2P-osphere" given the obvious shift in gamer's perception of the F2P model (alright, maybe not on this site...). With upcoming P2P titles like TERA or Blade&Soul, or F2Ps like Dragon Nest, Rusty Hearts, Conquer Of The Ninth. Most notably ArcheAge which has gained a rather significant amount of attention here in the West, and the annoucement of a Civilization MMORPG in development has also attracted some attention. I think the Korean MMORPG industry has found something that appeals to both the Korean and Western market and with a good push will be even more prominent in the Western market.
Richard, working myself in the gaming industry in China, I can tell you studios here have a very long way to go before they can produce triple A MMOGs. Local developpers seriously lack creativity - copy is considered an art in its own right here, and it's been like that for many centuries - and they have absolutely no global vision for their games (coded in a way that makes localization very difficult, story refering to obscure Chinese myth/legends which will usually bore Western player to tears, progression based on an insane amount of grinding, no exploration, outdated graphics, etc.). But it's true that many local companies are big enough now to buy studios in the West, as we've seen recently. I see the evolution more toward opening subsidiaries and buying development capabilities in the West to produce games aimed at the "local" target audience (the Westerners). Chinese players have very peculiar tastes, and they usually really don't like the game Westerners play, especially when it comes to RPGs - with a few notable exceptions.
Richard did you read this article here? In the general discussion forum here is a post "Chinese couple sell their kids to pay for online games" with a link to an article where a chinesse couple sold their 3 kids for money to play mmo's.
You need a new crystal ball. Do you think those people would have sold their 3 kids for money to play mmo's if the games they were playing only cost $15 a month?
Greed and poor quality will never be 'a major force in the west'. You should stop making guess's and start writing about facts in the f2p mmo scene. I read your articles (which i think i'll just stop now) to learn what IS going on, not what you guess, or hope, or think maybe will happen. And then you continue to not address any of the question people post to you as to why you think such a thing and do you have any facts.
Total waist of time.
Perhaps you should read this article too : Neglected child dies while parents play World Of Warcraft
Have a nice day.
Thats differant than selling the kid so that they could afford to continue playing it. Not everyone is so addicted to a game. But everyone has to pay the same price.
You're touting that situation with the chinese people selling their kids as if this was something that was commonplace. Really stupid shit happens throughout the world at any given moment, and many of them are 100 times worse than that, one situation where someone does something really fucked up does not mean the sky is falling for everyone else. That was the point of the WoW article, to show it's not the game or the money spent in the game, it's the people and their mentality. Furthermore, that article mentions that was done for the internet cafe's, which charge by the minute. Normal, sane people have jobs and other responsibilities that prohibit playing for stretches of time that make the cost skyrocket. Though, yes, there are obviously people willing to sit in a cafe and rack up the minutes, but I also have a very American friend that dropped over $7,000 over a stretch of 3 months in Entropia decking out all his character and buying uber gear for his girlfriend so she could play without being afraid of getting ganked.
"Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."
I don't think there are many players left who are interested in RPGs in the traditional sense because, well, they take too much time and the high social requirements are simply not engaging enough. Most players I meet today on-line just want bite-sized chunks of action. Many would just assume play solo becuse it is more efficient and less obtrusive. There was a thread recently on here about what an RPG actually is, and the overwhelming majority of responces had to do with character progression either through story or levels, with a distant second being character customization i.e. skills and attributes.
I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing, but what the author of this thread talks in regards to non-MMOG genres really make sense from a marketing perspective. I think the other genres lend themselves to this kind of market as much, if not more, than modern MMOGs do for the simple reason that they have a lot more action in them and can be completed in short bursts with some form of tangible reward. Why wouldn't companies try to give the majority of players what they want? Players don't have to waste time getting to know or depend on each other as either friends or enemies. They can jump in and jump out randomly and completely anonymously.
Vault-Tec analysts have concluded that the odds of worldwide nuclear armaggeddon this decade are 17,143,762... to 1.
yeah yeah yeah. I dont care if they flew to the moon and played in a crater hole. They should have been able to sell one kid and had a lifetime membership, but we're talking about china's game market. I'm sure there are ten thousand other things that could be said to make sounding like spending thousands of $$$ is not a problem.....but...back to what i ACTUALLY asked in my post.....Would they have sold their kids if they were only paying $15 a month to play a game?
Games from china will always cost more than western games if you play them hardcore so it will never be a "major force in the west". My post was a point of how expensive it can be.
Why do some people have such high and mighty opinions of themselves that they think they have to preach and lecture and disect every comment to death.
As another poster stated above, the chinese games industry is all about copy paste tried and tested formulas. While i am sure more and more chinese studios will buy up western ones, i do not see a chinese studio (on it's own) making a successful AAA mmo for the western market.
MMO wish list:
-Changeable worlds
-Solid non level based game
-Sharks with lasers attached to their heads
When Gods and Heroes goes Free 2 Play I will give it a go.
I have to admit one thing about free to play. Right place right time. It has come at a time when the MMO market is full of a bunch of carbon copies of itself none good enough for people to commit their time and money on, allowing people to just wade from one game to another. And there is no end in site to the rising tide of MMO clones. Ya F2P has done one thing, giving life to so many games that should of died or never been made in the first place. It has also been a pretty good enabler for allowing develeopers to continue to make the same mistakes over and over and over again.
edit: My favorite line is people saying the game wasnt good enough to sub too or spend time playing but now thats it free to play I'm willing to do both?
Me, too, definitely. I played a bit towards the end of beta and liked it, but not enough to pay a monthly subscription. These days I feel the same about most, if not all, mmo's I've tried.
You sound young...
Most players want an engaging environement, with depth and endless adventure.
"No they are not charity. That is where the whales come in. (I play for free. Whales pays.) Devs get a business. That is how it works."
-Nariusseldon
Your logic is invalid.
Not everyone in China sells their kids to play expensive video games. Only THAT couple did.. and perhaps, they used the money to upgrade their computers and food..? (The cost to play is the same)
"No they are not charity. That is where the whales come in. (I play for free. Whales pays.) Devs get a business. That is how it works."
-Nariusseldon
The fact that Heat Wave didn't launch G&HRR as a F2P game was a shock to me. I refuse to pay $49 for a game that everyone knows will go F2P asap. Nah I'll wait untill it goes F2P before I jump into that title.
Snap,
I think you got a lot Right here, the F2P model has allowed a lot of people the freedom to just cruise around a game to see if they like it, without any investment of money.
If they like what they see the gamer may then wish to spend some money or even sub if they are enjoying the title enough and wants more.
A game that comes to mind I am in right now is DDO .. when it was sub only I played it a while and dropped my sub aftrer about half a year. I came back to DDO now that it is F2P and found they made enough changes that I was once again enjoying the Journey .. and with some very good Subscription prices for monthy full access I grabbed a 3 month sub.
It is going to hold me over long enough for SWTOR to hit my door and blow me away ... but that is another post.
Keep the force close and your enemies even closer. (light sabre salute)
Look to the stars to know HE is with us. HE hung them as markers, of times and of seasons.