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The put your money where your mouth is thread on SWTOR success [POLL]

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Comments

  • FratmanFratman Member Posts: 344

    Originally posted by Silax

    Originally posted by Fratman

    Originally posted by Silax

    Originally posted by Fratman

    Originally posted by Silax

    Originally posted by Aison2

    Mediocre success,

    happy to see that most follow that view and don't expect jesus second comming.  Blizz got big not simply by being good but also due timing. SWTOR will have to compete with alot of big titles diminishing its potential buyers.

     

     

    Which titles?  Did I fall asleep during release date anouncements?  That said, WoW wasn't the first coming, nor the second.  They were a polished, well marketed title at the time of release (even with all the bugs).  Their closest competitor was EQII and lots of Everquest fans were betting that WoW would fail due to lack of "innovation" and bad graphics.  Turns out EQII's hardware requirements doomed the game to a mediocre start.  I'm willing to bet SWTOR learned that lesson.

    GW2 and The Secret World are going to rock TOR like a hurricane when they launch. They'll be coming out a few months after TOR releases, right around the time the novelty will be wearing off and people start looking for a real next gen mmo.

    Really?  Says who?  Secret World has a April 2012 place holder and given the little footage that has been released, I am betting that they are going to push it back.  GW2 doesn't even have an official release date.  Secondly, you know how many people have heard of Guild Wars or Secret World.  You can probably reduce the number to something like 3 times the people who visiting these forums.  You know how many people have heard of Star Wars, or how many will learn of it in the next 12 weeks.  I'm betting at least 50 times the amount who subscribe to GW2 and Secret World on release day combined.

    Uindenialbro?

    No, but I have facts.  You have opinion.

    I think by your calculations TOR should have over 20 million subs. This might be the most successful piece of entertainment in the history of ever. Forget about WoW, TOR is going after Avatar!

  • SilaxSilax Member Posts: 250

    Originally posted by Fratman

    Originally posted by Silax


    Originally posted by Fratman


    Originally posted by Silax


    Originally posted by Fratman


    Originally posted by Silax


    Originally posted by Aison2

    Mediocre success,

    happy to see that most follow that view and don't expect jesus second comming.  Blizz got big not simply by being good but also due timing. SWTOR will have to compete with alot of big titles diminishing its potential buyers.

     

     

    Which titles?  Did I fall asleep during release date anouncements?  That said, WoW wasn't the first coming, nor the second.  They were a polished, well marketed title at the time of release (even with all the bugs).  Their closest competitor was EQII and lots of Everquest fans were betting that WoW would fail due to lack of "innovation" and bad graphics.  Turns out EQII's hardware requirements doomed the game to a mediocre start.  I'm willing to bet SWTOR learned that lesson.

    GW2 and The Secret World are going to rock TOR like a hurricane when they launch. They'll be coming out a few months after TOR releases, right around the time the novelty will be wearing off and people start looking for a real next gen mmo.

    Really?  Says who?  Secret World has a April 2012 place holder and given the little footage that has been released, I am betting that they are going to push it back.  GW2 doesn't even have an official release date.  Secondly, you know how many people have heard of Guild Wars or Secret World.  You can probably reduce the number to something like 3 times the people who visiting these forums.  You know how many people have heard of Star Wars, or how many will learn of it in the next 12 weeks.  I'm betting at least 50 times the amount who subscribe to GW2 and Secret World on release day combined.

    Uindenialbro?

    No, but I have facts.  You have opinion.

    I think by your calculations TOR should have over 20 million subs. This might be the most successfull piece of entertainment in the history of ever. Forget about WoW, TOR is going after Avatar!



    Not really, I said heard of, not purchased.  By release 20 million people who have heard of SWTOR sounds about right.  Maybe a little low actually.

  • FratmanFratman Member Posts: 344

    Originally posted by Silax

    Originally posted by Fratman

    Originally posted by Silax

    Originally posted by Fratman

    Originally posted by Silax

    Originally posted by Fratman

    Originally posted by Silax

    Originally posted by Aison2

    Mediocre success,

    happy to see that most follow that view and don't expect jesus second comming.  Blizz got big not simply by being good but also due timing. SWTOR will have to compete with alot of big titles diminishing its potential buyers.

     

     

    Which titles?  Did I fall asleep during release date anouncements?  That said, WoW wasn't the first coming, nor the second.  They were a polished, well marketed title at the time of release (even with all the bugs).  Their closest competitor was EQII and lots of Everquest fans were betting that WoW would fail due to lack of "innovation" and bad graphics.  Turns out EQII's hardware requirements doomed the game to a mediocre start.  I'm willing to bet SWTOR learned that lesson.

    GW2 and The Secret World are going to rock TOR like a hurricane when they launch. They'll be coming out a few months after TOR releases, right around the time the novelty will be wearing off and people start looking for a real next gen mmo.

    Really?  Says who?  Secret World has a April 2012 place holder and given the little footage that has been released, I am betting that they are going to push it back.  GW2 doesn't even have an official release date.  Secondly, you know how many people have heard of Guild Wars or Secret World.  You can probably reduce the number to something like 3 times the people who visiting these forums.  You know how many people have heard of Star Wars, or how many will learn of it in the next 12 weeks.  I'm betting at least 50 times the amount who subscribe to GW2 and Secret World on release day combined.

    Uindenialbro?

    No, but I have facts.  You have opinion.

    I think by your calculations TOR should have over 20 million subs. This might be the most successfull piece of entertainment in the history of ever. Forget about WoW, TOR is going after Avatar!



    Not really, I said heard of, not purchased.  By release 20 million people who have heard of SWTOR sounds about right.  Maybe a little low actually.

    Ok, well I can't argue with your cold hard facts and numbers.

  • SilaxSilax Member Posts: 250

    Originally posted by Fratman

    Originally posted by Silax


    Originally posted by Fratman


    Originally posted by Silax


    Originally posted by Fratman


    Originally posted by Silax


    Originally posted by Fratman


    Originally posted by Silax


    Originally posted by Aison2

    Mediocre success,

    happy to see that most follow that view and don't expect jesus second comming.  Blizz got big not simply by being good but also due timing. SWTOR will have to compete with alot of big titles diminishing its potential buyers.

     

     

    Which titles?  Did I fall asleep during release date anouncements?  That said, WoW wasn't the first coming, nor the second.  They were a polished, well marketed title at the time of release (even with all the bugs).  Their closest competitor was EQII and lots of Everquest fans were betting that WoW would fail due to lack of "innovation" and bad graphics.  Turns out EQII's hardware requirements doomed the game to a mediocre start.  I'm willing to bet SWTOR learned that lesson.

    GW2 and The Secret World are going to rock TOR like a hurricane when they launch. They'll be coming out a few months after TOR releases, right around the time the novelty will be wearing off and people start looking for a real next gen mmo.

    Really?  Says who?  Secret World has a April 2012 place holder and given the little footage that has been released, I am betting that they are going to push it back.  GW2 doesn't even have an official release date.  Secondly, you know how many people have heard of Guild Wars or Secret World.  You can probably reduce the number to something like 3 times the people who visiting these forums.  You know how many people have heard of Star Wars, or how many will learn of it in the next 12 weeks.  I'm betting at least 50 times the amount who subscribe to GW2 and Secret World on release day combined.

    Uindenialbro?

    No, but I have facts.  You have opinion.

    I think by your calculations TOR should have over 20 million subs. This might be the most successfull piece of entertainment in the history of ever. Forget about WoW, TOR is going after Avatar!



    Not really, I said heard of, not purchased.  By release 20 million people who have heard of SWTOR sounds about right.  Maybe a little low actually.

    Ok, well I can't argue with your cold hard facts and numbers.

    You posted that SWTOR would have competitors.  I pointed out that you were generating these competitors without any actual release dates. 

  • CannyoneCannyone Member UncommonPosts: 267

    I think SWTOR will be a success, as long as they do what they said they would do...  Namely they need to release new content and features in a timely fashion.  If they do that then they should have a successful game.

    Now I understand that this doesn't appeal to those who want loads of innovation.  I don't see SWTOR ever becoming a Sand-Box game.  But that doesn't mean many of the "Joe Average" crowd won't love the game.

    I think the key will be if they can manage to listen to the "quality feedback" while passing over those who just want to Nerd Rage because they suck at PvP, or something along those lines.  The other key will be how long it takes them to correct the mistakes that are bound to happen.  Too many times games like this remain buggy for months and months after release.  Its like all the intelligent people got fired once the game was released...

  • just2duhjust2duh Member Posts: 1,290

     Idk, i'm quite sure it is going to do fine, but I kind of have to sway more towards the dropping sub numbers pattern we've been seeing in nearly every new release lately.

     For me personally I don't see much of anything out of the norm going on with the game, and I know other's feel the same too, but chances are they will still buy/try it and likely end up representing those drop in sub numbers.

  • FratmanFratman Member Posts: 344

    Originally posted by Silax

    Originally posted by Fratman

    Originally posted by Silax

    Originally posted by Fratman

    Originally posted by Silax

    Originally posted by Fratman

    Originally posted by Silax

    Originally posted by Fratman

    Originally posted by Silax

    Originally posted by Aison2

    Mediocre success,

    happy to see that most follow that view and don't expect jesus second comming.  Blizz got big not simply by being good but also due timing. SWTOR will have to compete with alot of big titles diminishing its potential buyers.

     

     

    Which titles?  Did I fall asleep during release date anouncements?  That said, WoW wasn't the first coming, nor the second.  They were a polished, well marketed title at the time of release (even with all the bugs).  Their closest competitor was EQII and lots of Everquest fans were betting that WoW would fail due to lack of "innovation" and bad graphics.  Turns out EQII's hardware requirements doomed the game to a mediocre start.  I'm willing to bet SWTOR learned that lesson.

    GW2 and The Secret World are going to rock TOR like a hurricane when they launch. They'll be coming out a few months after TOR releases, right around the time the novelty will be wearing off and people start looking for a real next gen mmo.

    Really?  Says who?  Secret World has a April 2012 place holder and given the little footage that has been released, I am betting that they are going to push it back.  GW2 doesn't even have an official release date.  Secondly, you know how many people have heard of Guild Wars or Secret World.  You can probably reduce the number to something like 3 times the people who visiting these forums.  You know how many people have heard of Star Wars, or how many will learn of it in the next 12 weeks.  I'm betting at least 50 times the amount who subscribe to GW2 and Secret World on release day combined.

    Uindenialbro?

    No, but I have facts.  You have opinion.

    I think by your calculations TOR should have over 20 million subs. This might be the most successfull piece of entertainment in the history of ever. Forget about WoW, TOR is going after Avatar!



    Not really, I said heard of, not purchased.  By release 20 million people who have heard of SWTOR sounds about right.  Maybe a little low actually.

    Ok, well I can't argue with your cold hard facts and numbers.

    You posted that SWTOR would have competitors.  I pointed out that you were generating these competitors without any actual release dates. 

    The Secret World announced they are launching in April 2012. TSW and GW2, which will be out around the same time, are gonna hurt TOR bad brah. Real bad. Prepare now for the server mergers.

  • SilaxSilax Member Posts: 250

    Originally posted by Cannyone

    I think SWTOR will be a success, as long as they do what they said they would do...  Namely they need to release new content and features in a timely fashion.  If they do that then they should have a successful game.

    Now I understand that this doesn't appeal to those who want loads of innovation.  I don't see SWTOR ever becoming a Sand-Box game.  But that doesn't mean many of the "Joe Average" crowd won't love the game.

    I think the key will be if they can manage to listen to the "quality feedback" while passing over those who just want to Nerd Rage because they suck at PvP, or something along those lines.  The other key will be how long it takes them to correct the mistakes that are bound to happen.  Too many times games like this remain buggy for months and months after release.  Its like all the intelligent people got fired once the game was released...

    Given the changes and design decisions that have been coming out, it appears to me as though they are trying to fix balancing issues before release as opposed to after.  The mirror classes, no apparent racial benefits all speak to that.

  • SilaxSilax Member Posts: 250

    Originally posted by Fratman

    Originally posted by Silax


    Originally posted by Fratman


    Originally posted by Silax


    Originally posted by Fratman


    Originally posted by Silax


    Originally posted by Fratman


    Originally posted by Silax


    Originally posted by Fratman


    Originally posted by Silax


    Originally posted by Aison2

    Mediocre success,

    happy to see that most follow that view and don't expect jesus second comming.  Blizz got big not simply by being good but also due timing. SWTOR will have to compete with alot of big titles diminishing its potential buyers.

     

     

    Which titles?  Did I fall asleep during release date anouncements?  That said, WoW wasn't the first coming, nor the second.  They were a polished, well marketed title at the time of release (even with all the bugs).  Their closest competitor was EQII and lots of Everquest fans were betting that WoW would fail due to lack of "innovation" and bad graphics.  Turns out EQII's hardware requirements doomed the game to a mediocre start.  I'm willing to bet SWTOR learned that lesson.

    GW2 and The Secret World are going to rock TOR like a hurricane when they launch. They'll be coming out a few months after TOR releases, right around the time the novelty will be wearing off and people start looking for a real next gen mmo.

    Really?  Says who?  Secret World has a April 2012 place holder and given the little footage that has been released, I am betting that they are going to push it back.  GW2 doesn't even have an official release date.  Secondly, you know how many people have heard of Guild Wars or Secret World.  You can probably reduce the number to something like 3 times the people who visiting these forums.  You know how many people have heard of Star Wars, or how many will learn of it in the next 12 weeks.  I'm betting at least 50 times the amount who subscribe to GW2 and Secret World on release day combined.

    Uindenialbro?

    No, but I have facts.  You have opinion.

    I think by your calculations TOR should have over 20 million subs. This might be the most successfull piece of entertainment in the history of ever. Forget about WoW, TOR is going after Avatar!



    Not really, I said heard of, not purchased.  By release 20 million people who have heard of SWTOR sounds about right.  Maybe a little low actually.

    Ok, well I can't argue with your cold hard facts and numbers.

    You posted that SWTOR would have competitors.  I pointed out that you were generating these competitors without any actual release dates. 

    The Secret World announced they are launching in April 2012. TSW and GW2, which will be out around the same time, are gonna hurt TOR bad brah. Real bad. Prepare now for the server mergers.

    Guess who was supposed to release April 2011 - SWTOR.  Things change, especially when your release window is a fiscal quarter or  a month place holder.  Especially when it comes to MMOs.

    Also, you really think Secret World  and GW2 are going to release around the same time?  If so, someone should fire their managing staff. 

     

  • lordpenquinlordpenquin Member Posts: 129

    I think it might cap at 3 mil, if that, and level out at around 750k after the first year.   The launch of guild wars 2 will make a huge impact.   Large enough that there might be server merges.  I don't see the secret world to be much of a threat because it's made by Failcom.  Diablo 3 will also take some people away as will the next wow expansion featuring the panderans.

     

    It won't be a total failure, but it won't be a blizzard killer either.  If their first expansion is full space flight, that would do a lot to bring in and retain more people.

     

    To be honest, if you remove the star wars skin and skip past the dialog, it's a very vanilla cookie cutter mmo.  Only time will tell how long before people start seeing cracks in the facade and see what lies beneath.

  • azmundaiazmundai Member UncommonPosts: 1,419

    Mediocre. Though that option should really be called Successful. I think the game will succeed but wont revolutionize much. The real revolution so to speak is this whole voice over thing. The problem I have with vo is that it takes money away from real development. A lot of money.

    It wont be a wow killer not because it may or may not be better or worse than wow, but because wow isn't just going to die 2 months after swtor is released. If handled correctly I could see it surpassing wow in 4 years or so .. but I would say that about gw2 as well and would like to think that of a slew of other games coming out as well. As much as I loved wow, I would love to see a game create a situation where wow is the 2nd best mmo. My gut feels like swtor wont be it .. but we'll see. The main reason I dont think swtor will be able to surpass wow is because of the ip. Arguably the best mmos are game ips, not movie or otherwise ips. I believe this is because the ips enforce too much of themselves on a system that the ip isn't fully suited for. That being said swtor definitely has a change to be the best movie or otherwise ip .. but then that's not really saying much (sorry lotro fans =P)

    LFD tools are great for cramming people into content, but quality > quantity.
    I am, usually on the sandbox .. more "hardcore" side of things, but I also do just want to have fun. So lighten up already :)

  • pensselisetapensseliseta Member Posts: 40

    I see the game failing to topple WoW, but doing well, somewhere along the lines of LotRO.

  • MavacarMavacar Member Posts: 328

    Mediocre, I'm afraid the hype has given people higher hopes then it can deliver, I have the same fear for Guild Wars 2 but I hope both those games will do real good and give a lot of people many, many sleepless nights.

  • tryklontryklon Member UncommonPosts: 1,370

    Ridiculous poll.

     

    I predict a sub number of around 400 to 500k, wich is nowhere to compete with wow but still a big success as an MMO.

     

    This game is an RPG, full of conversations, moral choices, personal npc reputations and overall a Bioware Mass Effect like game with online component... you honestly think it will cater to the regular WoW Epic Lootzzz Raid Crowd?

    Geez.... think about it a second

  • baso80baso80 Member Posts: 95
    this is the next series of the epic fail saga of AoC and WAR.

    I was there at AoC and WAR played the betas and told people it was going o fail and I can tell you this game is heading tbe same direction. signs are there but people doesn't wanna see it. the stale animations and combat will turn people off.

    I cant believe game developers don't understand the importance of smooth combat and animations.
  • Biggus99Biggus99 Member Posts: 916

    Originally posted by baso80

    this is the next series of the epic fail saga of AoC and WAR. I was there at AoC and WAR played the betas and told people it was going o fail and I can tell you this game is heading tbe same direction. signs are there but people doesn't wanna see it. the stale animations and combat will turn people off. I cant believe game developers don't understand the importance of smooth combat and animations.

     

    Yeah, except you're wrong about the combat in this case.  It's one thing to say this game will be a disappointment based on the hype, but epic fail like AoC and WAR?  Odds are definitely stacked against you there.  

  • SilaxSilax Member Posts: 250

    Originally posted by baso80

    this is the next series of the epic fail saga of AoC and WAR. I was there at AoC and WAR played the betas and told people it was going o fail and I can tell you this game is heading tbe same direction. signs are there but people doesn't wanna see it. the stale animations and combat will turn people off. I cant believe game developers don't understand the importance of smooth combat and animations.

    You know... if anything the animations are the one thing I hear the most praise for and the least amount of hate.  Interesting choice.

  • FratmanFratman Member Posts: 344

    Originally posted by tryklon

    Ridiculous poll.

     

    I predict a sub number of around 400 to 500k, wich is nowhere to compete with wow but still a big success as an MMO.

     

    Bioware said they need upwards of a million subscribers to be considered profitable. And even at a million they said it wouldn't be anything to write home about.

    If TOR ends up with 500k subs it will go down as one of the biggest flops in gaming history.

  • DarkPonyDarkPony Member Posts: 5,566

    Originally posted by tryklon

    Ridiculous poll.

    I predict a sub number of around 400 to 500k, wich is nowhere to compete with wow but still a big success as an MMO.

     

    This game is an RPG, full of conversations, moral choices, personal npc reputations and overall a Bioware Mass Effect like game with online component... you honestly think it will cater to the regular WoW Epic Lootzzz Raid Crowd?

    Geez.... think about it a second

    In the original post I mainly used WOW as a benchmark. Just like you did yourself in the green part.

    It pains me to sound belittling but ... learn to read.

    Whether their target groups overlap and to what extent is debatable. But personally, now that you brought up the subject, I think they actually do overlap for quite a big deal. There are differences with Swtor but also many similarities. Also not every (ex-) WOW player is/was a hardcore raider or arena player.

  • UnlightUnlight Member Posts: 2,540

    Originally posted by lordpenquin

    I think it might cap at 3 mil, if that, and level out at around 750k after the first year.   The launch of guild wars 2 will make a huge impact.   Large enough that there might be server merges.  I don't see the secret world to be much of a threat because it's made by Failcom.  Diablo 3 will also take some people away as will the next wow expansion featuring the panderans.

     

    It won't be a total failure, but it won't be a blizzard killer either.  If their first expansion is full space flight, that would do a lot to bring in and retain more people.

     

    To be honest, if you remove the star wars skin and skip past the dialog, it's a very vanilla cookie cutter mmo.  Only time will tell how long before people start seeing cracks in the facade and see what lies beneath.

    Despite my other misgivings about the game, this one thing would prompt me to re-examine it.

  • SilaxSilax Member Posts: 250

    Originally posted by Fratman

    Originally posted by tryklon

    Ridiculous poll.

     

    I predict a sub number of around 400 to 500k, wich is nowhere to compete with wow but still a big success as an MMO.

     

    Bioware said they need upwards of a million subscribers to be considered profitable. And even at a million they said it wouldn't be anything to write home about.

    If TOR ends up with 500k subs it will go down as one of the biggest flops in gaming history.

    You mean they said half a million.  Here's the article.

    http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/02/02/the-big-bet-ea-aims-at-a-half-million-subscribers-to-make-swt/

    Edit - Might as well add these:

    http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/34264/Analyst_Forecasts_Over_1M_Star_Wars_Old_Republic_Subs_YearOne.php?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+GamasutraNews+%28Gamasutra+News%29

    http://www.swtorstrategies.com/2011/09/soe-says-swtor-can-hit-2-million.html

     

  • maskedweaselmaskedweasel Member LegendaryPosts: 12,195

    Originally posted by Fratman

    Originally posted by tryklon

    Ridiculous poll.

     

    I predict a sub number of around 400 to 500k, wich is nowhere to compete with wow but still a big success as an MMO.

     

    Bioware said they need upwards of a million subscribers to be considered profitable. And even at a million they said it wouldn't be anything to write home about.

    If TOR ends up with 500k subs it will go down as one of the biggest flops in gaming history.

    Thats not true at all.  They said they would make a minor profit at 500K,  they said anything upwards of a million would be widely profitable.  



  • jondifooljondifool Member UncommonPosts: 1,143

    I am going with other , simply because i think there is plenty of starwars fans, sci-fi fans from whom this is going to be the best game. period. And they are going to be very happy with it.

    the ones that might have a problem is regular MMO gamers, that somehow expect more than the regular mmo model updated to a 2011 version. And while they will leave for next flawour of the month, (or something better) i am not sure that they  will prevent this games playerbase from growing the first year!

    I can see this game be a top 5 mmo for a few years to come, the only thing that is its problem is it is going to be standing in the shade of GW2 that might take the whole mmo scene (and a few others) by storm and change the PC gaming world .

    OR to put in another way , i think SWTOR will climp to a high position on the MMO hill,  GW2 might change the whole landscape. 

  • ElikalElikal Member UncommonPosts: 7,912

    Originally posted by DarkPony

    Originally posted by tryklon

    Ridiculous poll.

    I predict a sub number of around 400 to 500k, wich is nowhere to compete with wow but still a big success as an MMO.

     

    This game is an RPG, full of conversations, moral choices, personal npc reputations and overall a Bioware Mass Effect like game with online component... you honestly think it will cater to the regular WoW Epic Lootzzz Raid Crowd?

    Geez.... think about it a second

    In the original post I mainly used WOW as a benchmark. Just like you did yourself in the green part.

    It pains me to sound belittling but ... learn to read.

    Whether their target groups overlap and to what extent is debatable. But personally, now that you brought up the subject, I think they actually do overlap for quite a big deal. There are differences with Swtor but also many similarities. Also not every (ex-) WOW player is/was a hardcore raider or arena player.

    Well, compared to some posters here I can only say: how the hell did *I* become the optimist side?

    People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert

  • sirphobossirphobos Member UncommonPosts: 620

    My guess is it will be huge in terms of initial box sales and probably in the first couple months sell more boxes than even WoW did initially (keep in mind WoW didn't really start getting into the ridiculous range of subscribers until about a year after it came out).

    The game will probably have a couple million subscribers within a few months after release and probably settle nicely somewhere around a million subscribers and be a solid #2 in North American in terms of subscribers.

    I would think there will be a lot of KOTOR fans or Bioware fans that aren't fans of MMOs who just want to play through the story that will only play for a couple months.

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