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Let's compare the 3 upcoming blockbusters with nothing but math :)
Cantorage
Member Posts: 186
Since the 3 MMO's Star Wars: ToR, The Secret World and Guild Wars 2 will be occupying release dates pretty close to eachother and they all look like great games so far, let's try and pick at the numbers behind these games to see if we can "guesstimate" which one will launch the more polished. Here we go, in the order they will be released:
Star Wars: The Old Republic
Developer: BioWare
Engine: HeroEngine (Known from Faxion Online)
Pre-production time: 2 years
Est. Development Time at release: 3,5 years - 4 years
Est. Alpha/ beta time prior to release: 7 months
Average number of design staff throughout development: ca. 120
Release date: December 20th, 2011
The Secret World
Developer: Funcom
Engine: Dreamworld 2.0 (known from Age of Conan, which has the 1.5 version at the moment)
Pre-production time: 6 years
Est. Development Time at release: 6 years 8 months
Est. Alpha/ beta time prior to release: 10 months
Average number of design staff throughout development: 90 (this was upped after EA were introduced as co-publisher)
Release date: April 12th, 2012
Guild Wars 2
Developer: ArenaNet
Engine: Not yet named proprietary engine
Pre-production time: 6 months
Est. Development Time at release: ca. 5 years
Est. Alpha/ beta time prior to release: unknown
Average number of design staff throughout development: between 60 and 80
Release date: TBA
TERA is not included because their quarterly reports and other documents are not public. For the record, TERA is set to launch less than a month after The Secret World.
So, discuss.
Comments
I believe the GW2 is much larger than that. Can't remember source but those guys have gotten big. I think they have like 15-20 people alone on art!
Sorry, I should have specified that the staff is just the actual developers of tangible game assets and code, such as audio, textures, modelling and such. And ArenaNet claims a peak of 180 staff at one point, but the average is around 70
EDIT: I have the .pdf's on my laptop, I'll post them up when I get to it.
You used a lot of words...I don't see a lot of math there...
There is no question in my mind and I am sure a bunch of others that GW2 will be the more polished game at release.
They have been saying for quite some time now, "when it's done" so I think we are in for a spectacular game. Just look at the footage from all of the conventions, the game looks ready for retail now.
Hmm your numbers are off on swtor. I've been in beta since last December, and there were already testers when I started testing, so its been at least 10 months of beta, most likely 5-6 months of alpha on top of that.
Strangely after all that testing the game is where its at..
imo I just do not see how they can get everything they need done in the time they have left to do it, but I guess we will see.
SW:TOR is the blockbuster of the three.
The Secret World seem to hold the most innovation of the three (whether it works or not is another issue).
The GW2 seem to be the most fun of the three and the cheapest in the long run.
If you can call it innovation with the engine they're using to excute their idea of the IP . They really needed a next gen engine,not the same old tired one AOC is built upon and AO before that.
Well I for one will be playing both TSW and GW2, the one Im passing on is SWTOR. i just can't justify $15 a month for a game I know in my heart should be released as a single player RPG.
I have to arrest you there, the TSW engine is completely back-engineered compared to the AoC engine (Dreamworld 1.0) and some of those changes were recently implemented in AoC to bring it up to 1.5 (server-side PhysX and pre-pass rendering to name a few, allowing much higher frame rates and light sources than normally)
Then there are the changes and optimizations that couldn't be implemented into AoC because of being impractical and time consuming to implement, such as the possibility of multiple-NPC dialogue, team combos and states, and the "public quest"-like format we've seen from the tutorial. (Kingsmouth)
AoC's current engine and TSW's are worlds apart.
Star Wars: People just seem to want KOTOR 3 mixed in with a mmorpg. Early reports are it performs nice, but is missing some convinience features that people will qq about endlessly. We all know those features so go debate them somewhere else.
I predict 2mil if they go after their base audience and after launch ....no idea
Guild Wars 2: Buy-to-play mmorpg finally trying to compete directly with WoW. Up until this point it has been a corpg and not direct competition. The game looks solid. We still have yet to see if the no trinity and no instanced raiding thing will actuall be accepted.
This is more hyped then ToR in view, so maybe 2-3mil on launch and after launch... no idea
Secret World: P2P + Cash shop = not even on my radar
2 mil? No, my math shows 1.4-1.6 at best with the current economy. It isn't a console game. If it does hit 2 mil it will be the biggest USA title for an MMO to date last i checked. Last I checked Warhammer broke the record with 1.2 mil opening weekend but with the market saturation of MMOs.... you think Star Wars fandom will carry it? Star Trek by numbers has more fans by dollar count and that didn't carry Star Trek Online. 2 mil.... I just see that as iffy in the current economy. If I were an investor I would be more confortable with ToR releasing an expectation of 1.2 mil units the opening weekend. I would be dubious of a 2 million unit launch target for this year. Sales in general are down in the USA market. EU zone isn't fair much better in entertainment spending. We have enough shit keeping us awake at night with a potential bust for the Christmas season.
IF ToR draws in the KOTR single player crowd then you would be looking at closer to 3 mil (Star Wars has done well in the console market) in sales but I've never seen a crossover like that. ToR is being sold as an MMO and I just don't see that kind of crossover sales happening. If it does then AoC had it right, they just had a hard-to-sell IP.
So I would state this: "If ToR clears 3 million units opening weekend, drawing a large crossover of the single player experience crowd, it will vindicate Age of Conan in some of the criticism that was levvied at AoC early on about their single player experience." That would mean MMO developers would likely look at building an MMO starting with a solid single player experience and then expanding it out into an MMO mechanic. It would also mark the death of the MMO as we once knew it (EQ, Meridian, UO, DAOC) in the sense that an MMO was intrinsicly a multi-player game. This would mark the shift of an MMO from multiplayer to singleplayer at it's core. WoW has slowly made that transition towards a single player core, but this would mark the first success at an MMO who, from the start, was built around the single player experience first.
Good news and Bad news I suppose.
I have no idea about the other 2 games listed, but these 'facts' about TOR are _WAY_ off.
It started production at the beginning of 2006 (im pretty sure they were doing pre-production as early as 2005 too), and beta testing has been going on since the beginning of June 2010 (proof on beta testing date here: http://darthhater.com/2010/07/09/friday-update-070910/ )
So the correct numbers are:
Est. Development Time at release: ~6 years - 6.5 years
Est. Alpha/ beta time prior to release: ~19 months
If you got these numbers so incredibly wrong i'd also be inclined to believe that the other numbers for other games are way off too, although maybe you only researched them so im unsure.
Oh, how wrong can one be.
I don't really think the math (is this really math?) matters.
What matters is what resources and experience they had on hand, what decision they made that had to be trashed and then starting over, how good the management was as well as how well they used their resources.
Maybe average experience of their teams could also be a deciding factor.
I think the better way to look at it is to examine the track record of these companies as well as the teams involved. So, one could look at the Secret World and look at AoC but completely miss the contributions of The Secret World's Lead Designer.
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
Aye.
Was missing sources in the OP anyway.
My brand new bloggity blog.
2 year pre-production + 4 year of developerment = 6 year total
2005 + 6 years = 2011
2011 = this year
Unless the development time of his includes the pre-production.
Actually, it was confirmed back in June 2011 that ArenaNet had 270 employees. Up goes that average staff count.
A-net employ count does not equal developers. Image how many accountants, secretaries, cleaners, copy boys and other support staff such a company has. Not saying his numbers are right, but just saying 270 employees is not the same as actualy developers.
what the crap is Secret World? I rest my case *turns off lightsaber*
I believe a great game cannot be explain be pure numbers, it is a combination of multiple mechanics working together in a cohesive way.
How much WoW could a WoWhater hate, if a WoWhater could hate WoW?
As much WoW as a WoWhater would, if a WoWhater could hate WoW.
If memory serves me right, GW2 is using a modified / updated version of the engine used for Guild Wars. Pretty sure it's proprietary and developed in-house.
A lot of the "facts" in the original post seem somewhat off, and I'm not entirely sure why these numbers are relevant in the first place.
No sources, numbers on TOR at least are off.
I also don't see math.
And I don't see the logic behind longer development / more beta / more people working on it / ... === better game either
If you just wanted to compare, then at least get your numbers right and mention sources.
Feel free to use my referral link for SW:TOR if you want to test out the game. You'll get some special unlocks!
According to that Funcom started working and thinking on TSW more than 12 years ago (according to the OP). That's before AO launched and AOC somehow was developed inbetween. Suggesting that it has been a continuous production is an iffy assumption at best. Let's check WIkipedia:
"The pre-production of the game originally known as Cabal (and The Entire World Online in the earliest concepts) started in 2002,[16] but in mid-2003, most of the working team was transferred to the development of Dreamfall.[7] Cabal was to be set in the same universe as the later The Secret World but in the 1920s instead of the contemporary period, with H. P. Lovecraft's works and the Indiana Jones franchise being major inspirations.[16] The idea of setting the game in the 1920s was scrapped after lengthy discussions, in order to make the game more accessible for modern players.[16]
The work on The Secret World was resumed in 2006, after Dreamfall shipped, with many of the latter's designers (including Ragnar Tørnquist) playing key roles in the former's development.[7] TSW is being produced at the Funcom studios in Oslo, Montreal and Beijing.[8] In August 2008, it was stated that the development team consisted of people previously involved in the development of Dreamfall, Anarchy Online, Age of Conan, EverQuest II, and The Longest Journey.[9] In November Funcom stated that 70 people were working on the project.[17]
On September 29, 2009, Funcom announced a reduction of 20% of its staff, resulting in "significant delay" for the release of The Secret World.[18]"
Anyway, Things are way off in the OP. More like 6 years preproduction + production max as well as 70 people working on it before their numbers were cut in a reduction in 2009
My brand new bloggity blog.
^This.
Bad inputs = bad outputs. The obvious incorrect information and the lack of included GW2 information makes this thread a lesson in poor execution of an idea.
I want a mmorpg where people have gone through misery, have gone through school stuff and actually have had sex even. -sagil