if they are going to release it within 2012 closed/open is more then likely to end up in the summer time. April and on words would probubly be the earliest we will see a beta in any form if its in 2012. With that in mind I can see them releasing it in fall or even waiting till christmass.
Personally I would like to see it some time in the fall or even earlier, so that we can see the halloween and christmass content
I'd clarify a couple things. Arenanet has said that Closed Beta will start before the end of the year, not at the end of the year. Although they could still start in late December and meet that goal, they could just as easily start in November. Also, Mike O'Brien, one of the ANet founders working on GW2, has said that it's fairly typical for an MMO development process to take 4 1/2 to 5 years and GW2 is on course to be completed in that time frame. Funny how the 4 1/2 part of that was dropped in a comment above? (This matches with the heavily speculated time frame of sometime in Q1 or Q2 of 2012, with Q1 still being a possibility).
Arenanet also confirmed recently that the 8th Profession will also be announced before the end of 2011. It could be concurrent with the Closed Beta announcment, or it could come before, but it will be by the end of the year. It would seem odd for them to release the last big PR item people are waiting on by the end of 2011, if they see the release window being in Summer 2012.
One thing they have repeated as a mantra in recent weeks is the following: "We will be starting Closed beta by the end of 2011. Depending on how Closed Beta goes, that will determine when we hold Open Beta. Depending on how Open Beta goes, that will determine our release date". That statement is important for speculation, so I thought I'd get it into this thread.
The game already looks incredibly stable and polished. Better than some other MMOs I've beta tested have been a month before launch. They have said recently that the game is basically content complete at this point. There are a couple features they are still working on and those appear to be in the testing phase, rather than the design phase. Arenanet's design process is highly iterative. They have been playing an incomplete version of the game for almost three years now, constantly tweaking, polishing and balancing as they go. That signals an advantage over many MMOs that aren't even assembled into a playable combination of features until very late in the design process.
I think the downside of their process is that it may be hard to stop iterating improvements that produce diminishing returns and just decide it's time to freeze features and content and focus on final bug fixes, polish and balance needed for launch. No game is ever going to be perfect and at some point they have to go to market with a finished product. I see no reason why this game will have not reached that point in time for a mid to late Q1 release.
(BTW, glad to see this thread started here and hope there will be much speculation that will be updated as new milestones are reached. It's good to have an outlet for such speculation on a forum where the moderators don't unnecassarily quash high volume threads).
Mid summer 2012 is probably the optomistic date, this title just hasn't started ramping up through the traditional MMORPG release cycle that almost all titles go through.
Also, from a marketing standpoint, might be a good idea to let some of the SWTOR furor die down and hit players as they start to get bored and looking for a new title.
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
Mid summer 2012 is probably the optomistic date, this title just hasn't started ramping up through the traditional MMORPG release cycle that almost all titles go through.
Also, from a marketing standpoint, might be a good idea to let some of the SWTOR furor die down and hit players as they start to get bored and looking for a new title.
When the months April to June arrive, I expect there to be quite some new titles with TERA, The Secret World, Firefall and maybe even Blade & Soul and Arche Age for those who grew bored and were looking for a new title.
As for a Q1 release for GW2, I'm extremely sceptic that this'd be the case based on the trajectory as it went so far and the dev statements. You're usually looking at a 1.5-2 month period between the final go and the moment the final decision arrives is at the least the week after the final beta test. Based on all previous MMO experiences, it's often more realistic to estimate on the longer side of a timescale than thinking they'll speed up things up to shorter than what's the average time, unless we're talking about Cryptic.
But, as with all speculations, only time can tell.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I think i know pretty well how Arenanet works and what to expect from them...
Dude, unless you work for Arena Net, you don't know crap.
A lot of US companies shut down for the holidays (last week of December), so if they are planning to begin the closed beta before the end of the year, they will most probably start well before that.
And for all we know the closed beta could have already started. There has been very little out there to suggest that the closed beta would be a 'application for entry' process and I am fully expecting the closed testing to be done by guilds/groups/individuals selected by Arena Net, and not just letting the unwashed masses in. Which is most probably the best way to go about it. Recruit people who will actually test your product instead of opening the doors to beta players who do little more than take up space.
I think you have to look at whats in front of you.
What we have seen has been very polished, but its been a small subset of the game. There is still another class to reveal. We havent heard much about WvWvW. The AI is getting better intelligence, more PvP maps, etc.
The final phases of a project are always the most tedious, so while the core systems seem to be in place and looking good, I think those expecting a release before summer will be disappointed. I would be surprised to see launch before Q4 2012.
Playing: GW2 Waiting on: TESO Next Flop: Planetside 2 Best MMO of all time: Asheron's Call - The first company to recreate AC will be the next greatest MMO.
Comments
if they are going to release it within 2012 closed/open is more then likely to end up in the summer time. April and on words would probubly be the earliest we will see a beta in any form if its in 2012. With that in mind I can see them releasing it in fall or even waiting till christmass.
Personally I would like to see it some time in the fall or even earlier, so that we can see the halloween and christmass content
I'd clarify a couple things. Arenanet has said that Closed Beta will start before the end of the year, not at the end of the year. Although they could still start in late December and meet that goal, they could just as easily start in November. Also, Mike O'Brien, one of the ANet founders working on GW2, has said that it's fairly typical for an MMO development process to take 4 1/2 to 5 years and GW2 is on course to be completed in that time frame. Funny how the 4 1/2 part of that was dropped in a comment above? (This matches with the heavily speculated time frame of sometime in Q1 or Q2 of 2012, with Q1 still being a possibility).
Arenanet also confirmed recently that the 8th Profession will also be announced before the end of 2011. It could be concurrent with the Closed Beta announcment, or it could come before, but it will be by the end of the year. It would seem odd for them to release the last big PR item people are waiting on by the end of 2011, if they see the release window being in Summer 2012.
One thing they have repeated as a mantra in recent weeks is the following: "We will be starting Closed beta by the end of 2011. Depending on how Closed Beta goes, that will determine when we hold Open Beta. Depending on how Open Beta goes, that will determine our release date". That statement is important for speculation, so I thought I'd get it into this thread.
The game already looks incredibly stable and polished. Better than some other MMOs I've beta tested have been a month before launch. They have said recently that the game is basically content complete at this point. There are a couple features they are still working on and those appear to be in the testing phase, rather than the design phase. Arenanet's design process is highly iterative. They have been playing an incomplete version of the game for almost three years now, constantly tweaking, polishing and balancing as they go. That signals an advantage over many MMOs that aren't even assembled into a playable combination of features until very late in the design process.
I think the downside of their process is that it may be hard to stop iterating improvements that produce diminishing returns and just decide it's time to freeze features and content and focus on final bug fixes, polish and balance needed for launch. No game is ever going to be perfect and at some point they have to go to market with a finished product. I see no reason why this game will have not reached that point in time for a mid to late Q1 release.
(BTW, glad to see this thread started here and hope there will be much speculation that will be updated as new milestones are reached. It's good to have an outlet for such speculation on a forum where the moderators don't unnecassarily quash high volume threads).
Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
^ This man....speaks the truth.
Guild Wars 2 Youtube Croatian Maniacs
My Guild Wars titles
It will be released when it's ready, I don't want it before then.
Mid summer 2012 is probably the optomistic date, this title just hasn't started ramping up through the traditional MMORPG release cycle that almost all titles go through.
Also, from a marketing standpoint, might be a good idea to let some of the SWTOR furor die down and hit players as they start to get bored and looking for a new title.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
My prediction is Beta will be close to ending in April time frame.
When the months April to June arrive, I expect there to be quite some new titles with TERA, The Secret World, Firefall and maybe even Blade & Soul and Arche Age for those who grew bored and were looking for a new title.
As for a Q1 release for GW2, I'm extremely sceptic that this'd be the case based on the trajectory as it went so far and the dev statements. You're usually looking at a 1.5-2 month period between the final go and the moment the final decision arrives is at the least the week after the final beta test. Based on all previous MMO experiences, it's often more realistic to estimate on the longer side of a timescale than thinking they'll speed up things up to shorter than what's the average time, unless we're talking about Cryptic.
But, as with all speculations, only time can tell.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Dude, unless you work for Arena Net, you don't know crap.
A lot of US companies shut down for the holidays (last week of December), so if they are planning to begin the closed beta before the end of the year, they will most probably start well before that.
And for all we know the closed beta could have already started. There has been very little out there to suggest that the closed beta would be a 'application for entry' process and I am fully expecting the closed testing to be done by guilds/groups/individuals selected by Arena Net, and not just letting the unwashed masses in. Which is most probably the best way to go about it. Recruit people who will actually test your product instead of opening the doors to beta players who do little more than take up space.
I think you have to look at whats in front of you.
What we have seen has been very polished, but its been a small subset of the game. There is still another class to reveal. We havent heard much about WvWvW. The AI is getting better intelligence, more PvP maps, etc.
The final phases of a project are always the most tedious, so while the core systems seem to be in place and looking good, I think those expecting a release before summer will be disappointed. I would be surprised to see launch before Q4 2012.
You know, it's really hard to say, I used to think GW2 was coming out on 2008, then it was 2009, then 2010 and now here we are.
Eh but at this point I would expect GW2 to arrive ON May/June 2012.
beta is starting this year so i doubt the game will be released after may unless they stay on beta phase for like 5-6 months
Im thinking a May or June release is the best case scenario the more I think about it.
Everything you need to know about Elder Scrolls Online
Playing: GW2
Waiting on: TESO
Next Flop: Planetside 2
Best MMO of all time: Asheron's Call - The first company to recreate AC will be the next greatest MMO.
The game will be released on April 12th, 2012 (give or take 2 months).
It will release December 21st, 2012 at approxiamately 11:38 GMT.
It was foretold by the Great Feathered Serpent.
TRUST THE COMPUTER! THE COMPUTER IS YOUR FRIEND!
Stay Alert! Trust No One! Keep Your Laser Handy!
Yellow Clearance Black Box Blues!