I have no idea, but I suspect it will stay healthy for a long time to come. BioWare isn't some flash in the pan developer like many MMO development houses (Turbine, SOE, Funcom) with no proven track record outside of one or two popular titles. They are an estemed development house with a long track record of quality products. How well that translates to the MMO scene is yet to be determined as is the general publics' ability to stomach yet another MMORPG modeled after WoW even if this is, in my opinion, better than even WoW itself.
If Rift is still healthy and looking to remain so for quite some time, I think all signs point to SW:TOR being a major success given its more famous development house, IP, and hype level.
I honestly rekn it has a good chance of growing, but it wont be straight away, instead over time maybe a year or 2. Initially its almost gauranteed that there will be a drop-off after the first free month, maybe even as much as 50% or more, i think it will then gradually pick up after that though.
50% felt like a nice, safe assumption to me. Most forums, including this one, will be flooded with hate over the game, while the people playing the game will love it. I expect a nice 50/50 split for 6 months. It will probably be lower with the release of newer games since a huge amount of mmo'ers are drifters and 1 year of playing the same MMO nowadays is a very long time. It really is to hard to say since I am already contradicting myself.
You might say hey TOR has way more VO but hardly a big.
FFX, FFXIII, DA, all have decent amount of VO. Only DA2 stood out in having way more VO. But hardly matters, b/c nobody is going to say oh: TOR has more VO....
I doubt people will leave for either one. GW2 is B2P and TSW is nearly unheard of.
I think people are going to be suprised at what a popular IP and a solid (relative bug free) game can do.
Agreed, although I would say retention will be greater than 50%. I just dont have the means to predict if it is in that area, or actually much higher.
At 50%, you are still looking at 1M continuing subs or more.
Asking Devs to make AAA sandbox titles is like trying to get fine dining on a McDonalds dollar menu budget.
There is a growing number of people that do not play MMORPGs for any period of time. They play them no differently than they do any game they buy for their PC or respective gaming console. They buy the game, and they may play for a month or two...
Somebody else that has finished playing whatever game they were playing, then buys the game and does the same...
Over and over and over...
Look at how many people are on the planet. Look at how many of them have computers. Look at how many of them have broadband internet. Look at how many of them play games. Look at how small those subscription numbers really are in comparison...
...there is a growing number of people that do not play MMORPGs for any period of time.
I miss the MMORPG genre. Will a developer ever make one again?
I don't think it will retain too many players because I see too strong solo RPG elements (which are faster to take hold, but hold their appeal for a short time), and MMO elements that are not as strong as what the competition seems to be bringing (those need a larger time to work entice players, but have a more lasting appeal).
It won't be a failure, but I don't think it will be a runaway success either.
Also, Bioware, with all the voice acting and cinematic scenes, set the content quality bar too high. I'm not sure they will be able to provide new content as fast as, for example, Trion. If they can't, it will be bad for their long term prospects.
i think it will grow above launch numbers and here is why:
Granted i think that there will be alot of people who wont like the game... I know the ros and cons well.. I think still most peopel will play it because aboev anything else, it is fun to play. What will really keep them above water is the fact that they are going to make so much money off this launch that they will be able to Keep a large staff on which in turn will kick out product alot faster...
SWTOR will have a massive launch for sure. For me, playing throught he classes to end game will take nearly forever so, that's how it'll retain me. Because I'll likely RP, which will slow it down.
SWTOR is definitely MUCH more fun when you take things slowly and just enjoy the journey rather than rush through - at least in my opinion.
However, there's a desperate need for some more community/player empowerment systems in the game as well as social content that's just simply lacking at the moment. We know BioWare has a 'wall of crazy' full of features they're hoping to get in the game such as Guild Captial Ships and an Appearance Tab which has become a fairly high priority due to community outcry.
The game is going to evolve. It'll take time, but it'll evolve, hopefully in really big, awesome ways that will retain players like myself who hope for more than just 'doing what you're told to do'.
Why do I write, create, fantasize, dream and daydream about other worlds? Because I hate what humanity does with this one.
SWTOR will have a massive launch for sure. For me, playing throught he classes to end game will take nearly forever so, that's how it'll retain me. Because I'll likely RP, which will slow it down.
SWTOR is definitely MUCH more fun when you take things slowly and just enjoy the journey rather than rush through - at least in my opinion.
However, there's a desperate need for some more community/player empowerment systems in the game as well as social content that's just simply lacking at the moment. We know BioWare has a 'wall of crazy' full of features they're hoping to get in the game such as Guild Captial Ships and an Appearance Tab which has become a fairly high priority due to community outcry.
The game is going to evolve. It'll take time, but it'll evolve, hopefully in really big, awesome ways that will retain players like myself who hope for more than just 'doing what you're told to do'.
I hope they do as well. I haven't been as concernned about end game because I usually don't last the journey in mmos because they tend to be so boring and monotonous. I am curious how important the craffting will be at end game. If all the best gear is looted then it will be meaningless. The PVP control system sounds pronising but there is know way off knowing how any of this will work until this game goes live.
I think 50% is a fair estimate. It may be higher. I noticed that Wowhead.com created a sister site called torhead.com. Maybe they are expecting it to really take off.
SWTOR will have a massive launch for sure. For me, playing throught he classes to end game will take nearly forever so, that's how it'll retain me. Because I'll likely RP, which will slow it down.
SWTOR is definitely MUCH more fun when you take things slowly and just enjoy the journey rather than rush through - at least in my opinion.
However, there's a desperate need for some more community/player empowerment systems in the game as well as social content that's just simply lacking at the moment. We know BioWare has a 'wall of crazy' full of features they're hoping to get in the game such as Guild Captial Ships and an Appearance Tab which has become a fairly high priority due to community outcry.
The game is going to evolve. It'll take time, but it'll evolve, hopefully in really big, awesome ways that will retain players like myself who hope for more than just 'doing what you're told to do'.
I hope they do as well. I haven't been as concernned about end game because I usually don't last the journey in mmos because they tend to be so boring and monotonous. I am curious how important the craffting will be at end game. If all the best gear is looted then it will be meaningless. The PVP control system sounds pronising but there is know way off knowing how any of this will work until this game goes live.
This is subject to change of course, but apparently the best gear attainable right now is through commendations which you get on each planet, for doing each flashpoint etc. Personally, I'm not into crafting and even I hope that the best crafters who put the time in end up making the best gear in the game.
I don't run flashpoints and 'raids' (operations) for gear honestly. I run it for the multiplayer chat, the adventure, the 'fun' if you will.
For example, the ESSELES flashpoint I think is really great and I usually end up doing it about 3-4 times before moving onto Coruscant. After I move on though, I often feel like revisiting it because it was more fun than a lot of the stuff my character does over the next few levels.
If there's one thing I truly wish TOR had way more of, it's flashpoints.
Why do I write, create, fantasize, dream and daydream about other worlds? Because I hate what humanity does with this one.
Id like to have some good ideas to bring to the table about this subject but in all honesty the table is slim pickens and I dont. I do how ever think people dont ever compare it to rift and I think they should more. Rift is one of my favorites along with aion, I think its done very well but then again I only played beta, still waiting to jump in.
So both pointless remarks made by me, gee, well thats about all I got to say. If there was some indication what so ever of any resoning behind any factual numbers to any mmos to base assumptions of what this games retension could be I would hazard a round about guesstimation but there isnt and I gots no clue, any number in the world would only be a crack shot guess even if devs give numbers out.
I would say though as I do like to discuss the subject just as much as the rest of the mmo fans either way, most time I can get a good hypothesis going to the facts before hand. I would say for a few weeks there SWTOR really felt like something special and great was going on but it stoped in its tracts. They saying 2-3-4 million sold copies of the game, a year down the road from that? Well, were talking North America after all, land of the haterz... mad haterz, LCU frigin coachs name is named after this for christ sakes. The game could be the second coming and it still would bleed subs, but including EU and Australia if it comes out there i havent seen as in servers, just imagining how many servers at launch and how many mmos have had to frigin merge countless servers across every mmo game in NA I wouldnt be suprized either way. Ill say they will have 1.2 million subscribers that play like they mean business across the globe at one year, right around the number of box units sold, of course theres another mill players that play like sisys and either play for a month and quit or play off and on casually like they dont own the game. 80-90% I would guess.
SWTOR will have a massive launch for sure. For me, playing throught he classes to end game will take nearly forever so, that's how it'll retain me. Because I'll likely RP, which will slow it down.
SWTOR is definitely MUCH more fun when you take things slowly and just enjoy the journey rather than rush through - at least in my opinion.
However, there's a desperate need for some more community/player empowerment systems in the game as well as social content that's just simply lacking at the moment. We know BioWare has a 'wall of crazy' full of features they're hoping to get in the game such as Guild Captial Ships and an Appearance Tab which has become a fairly high priority due to community outcry.
The game is going to evolve. It'll take time, but it'll evolve, hopefully in really big, awesome ways that will retain players like myself who hope for more than just 'doing what you're told to do'.
I hope they do as well. I haven't been as concernned about end game because I usually don't last the journey in mmos because they tend to be so boring and monotonous. I am curious how important the craffting will be at end game. If all the best gear is looted then it will be meaningless. The PVP control system sounds pronising but there is know way off knowing how any of this will work until this game goes live.
This is subject to change of course, but apparently the best gear attainable right now is through commendations which you get on each planet, for doing each flashpoint etc. Personally, I'm not into crafting and even I hope that the best crafters who put the time in end up making the best gear in the game.
I don't run flashpoints and 'raids' (operations) for gear honestly. I run it for the multiplayer chat, the adventure, the 'fun' if you will.
For example, the ESSELES flashpoint I think is really great and I usually end up doing it about 3-4 times before moving onto Coruscant. After I move on though, I often feel like revisiting it because it was more fun than a lot of the stuff my character does over the next few levels.
If there's one thing I truly wish TOR had way more of, it's flashpoints.
Yep that makes a lot of sense. The far majority of subs will come for PVE, and not for Uncle Owen. Yet Uncle Owen play should generate the best loot, rather than reward it for completing the PVE content the folks signed up for.
Get a grip already. Sandboxes are that way-------->
Asking Devs to make AAA sandbox titles is like trying to get fine dining on a McDonalds dollar menu budget.
Comments
(Turbine, SOE, Funcom) LOL - Asheron's Call, EQ, Anarchy Online
There are by far WAY more haters on here.. So the poll will be off no matter what
I honestly rekn it has a good chance of growing, but it wont be straight away, instead over time maybe a year or 2. Initially its almost gauranteed that there will be a drop-off after the first free month, maybe even as much as 50% or more, i think it will then gradually pick up after that though.
50% felt like a nice, safe assumption to me. Most forums, including this one, will be flooded with hate over the game, while the people playing the game will love it. I expect a nice 50/50 split for 6 months. It will probably be lower with the release of newer games since a huge amount of mmo'ers are drifters and 1 year of playing the same MMO nowadays is a very long time. It really is to hard to say since I am already contradicting myself.
Agreed, although I would say retention will be greater than 50%. I just dont have the means to predict if it is in that area, or actually much higher.
At 50%, you are still looking at 1M continuing subs or more.
Asking Devs to make AAA sandbox titles is like trying to get fine dining on a McDonalds dollar menu budget.
There is a growing number of people that do not play MMORPGs for any period of time. They play them no differently than they do any game they buy for their PC or respective gaming console. They buy the game, and they may play for a month or two...
Somebody else that has finished playing whatever game they were playing, then buys the game and does the same...
Over and over and over...
Look at how many people are on the planet. Look at how many of them have computers. Look at how many of them have broadband internet. Look at how many of them play games. Look at how small those subscription numbers really are in comparison...
...there is a growing number of people that do not play MMORPGs for any period of time.
I miss the MMORPG genre. Will a developer ever make one again?
Explorer: 87%, Killer: 67%, Achiever: 27%, Socializer: 20%
Shadow's Hand Guild
Open recruitment for
The Secret World - Dragons
Planetside 2 - Terran Republic
Tera - Dragonfall Server
http://www.shadowshand.com
I don't think it will retain too many players because I see too strong solo RPG elements (which are faster to take hold, but hold their appeal for a short time), and MMO elements that are not as strong as what the competition seems to be bringing (those need a larger time to work entice players, but have a more lasting appeal).
It won't be a failure, but I don't think it will be a runaway success either.
Also, Bioware, with all the voice acting and cinematic scenes, set the content quality bar too high. I'm not sure they will be able to provide new content as fast as, for example, Trion. If they can't, it will be bad for their long term prospects.
i think it will grow above launch numbers and here is why:
Granted i think that there will be alot of people who wont like the game... I know the ros and cons well.. I think still most peopel will play it because aboev anything else, it is fun to play. What will really keep them above water is the fact that they are going to make so much money off this launch that they will be able to Keep a large staff on which in turn will kick out product alot faster...
I say 50% is a fair estimate.
SWTOR will have a massive launch for sure. For me, playing throught he classes to end game will take nearly forever so, that's how it'll retain me. Because I'll likely RP, which will slow it down.
SWTOR is definitely MUCH more fun when you take things slowly and just enjoy the journey rather than rush through - at least in my opinion.
However, there's a desperate need for some more community/player empowerment systems in the game as well as social content that's just simply lacking at the moment. We know BioWare has a 'wall of crazy' full of features they're hoping to get in the game such as Guild Captial Ships and an Appearance Tab which has become a fairly high priority due to community outcry.
The game is going to evolve. It'll take time, but it'll evolve, hopefully in really big, awesome ways that will retain players like myself who hope for more than just 'doing what you're told to do'.
BOYCOTTING EA / ORIGIN going forward.
I hope they do as well. I haven't been as concernned about end game because I usually don't last the journey in mmos because they tend to be so boring and monotonous. I am curious how important the craffting will be at end game. If all the best gear is looted then it will be meaningless. The PVP control system sounds pronising but there is know way off knowing how any of this will work until this game goes live.
Currently Playing: World of Warcraft
I think 50% is a fair estimate. It may be higher. I noticed that Wowhead.com created a sister site called torhead.com. Maybe they are expecting it to really take off.
This is subject to change of course, but apparently the best gear attainable right now is through commendations which you get on each planet, for doing each flashpoint etc. Personally, I'm not into crafting and even I hope that the best crafters who put the time in end up making the best gear in the game.
I don't run flashpoints and 'raids' (operations) for gear honestly. I run it for the multiplayer chat, the adventure, the 'fun' if you will.
For example, the ESSELES flashpoint I think is really great and I usually end up doing it about 3-4 times before moving onto Coruscant. After I move on though, I often feel like revisiting it because it was more fun than a lot of the stuff my character does over the next few levels.
If there's one thing I truly wish TOR had way more of, it's flashpoints.
BOYCOTTING EA / ORIGIN going forward.
Id like to have some good ideas to bring to the table about this subject but in all honesty the table is slim pickens and I dont. I do how ever think people dont ever compare it to rift and I think they should more. Rift is one of my favorites along with aion, I think its done very well but then again I only played beta, still waiting to jump in.
So both pointless remarks made by me, gee, well thats about all I got to say. If there was some indication what so ever of any resoning behind any factual numbers to any mmos to base assumptions of what this games retension could be I would hazard a round about guesstimation but there isnt and I gots no clue, any number in the world would only be a crack shot guess even if devs give numbers out.
I would say though as I do like to discuss the subject just as much as the rest of the mmo fans either way, most time I can get a good hypothesis going to the facts before hand. I would say for a few weeks there SWTOR really felt like something special and great was going on but it stoped in its tracts. They saying 2-3-4 million sold copies of the game, a year down the road from that? Well, were talking North America after all, land of the haterz... mad haterz, LCU frigin coachs name is named after this for christ sakes. The game could be the second coming and it still would bleed subs, but including EU and Australia if it comes out there i havent seen as in servers, just imagining how many servers at launch and how many mmos have had to frigin merge countless servers across every mmo game in NA I wouldnt be suprized either way. Ill say they will have 1.2 million subscribers that play like they mean business across the globe at one year, right around the number of box units sold, of course theres another mill players that play like sisys and either play for a month and quit or play off and on casually like they dont own the game. 80-90% I would guess.
Yep that makes a lot of sense. The far majority of subs will come for PVE, and not for Uncle Owen. Yet Uncle Owen play should generate the best loot, rather than reward it for completing the PVE content the folks signed up for.
Get a grip already. Sandboxes are that way-------->
Asking Devs to make AAA sandbox titles is like trying to get fine dining on a McDonalds dollar menu budget.
I wonder how many collector have pre-ordered the game, but will not open it to keep it mint.