I don't believe in growth in MMO's anymore. Half of the preorders will stop playing after a few months.
Exactly and one needs to ask the question, why did MMOs use to grow in subs. but now they almost always decline sharply.
I call this the Themepark effect, no matter how well designed your Themepark is people will get bored of riding your rides. Sandbox on the other side, if they are any good, allow the players to design their own rides and that is why games like Eve have steadily grown from 30k subs at release to over 300k and holding.
Rift did the same...Rift and WAR had similar releases (minor this staggering crap)...true test is in 6 months.
Yep and where is Rift now? Most servers were high in the first 1-2 months and now you rarely have any high, most are medium and some low so my guess is that Rift has lost around 50%.
To be fair, it took rift several weeks just to hit the 1mil sales.
SWTOR hit close to 1 mil sales in just box pre-orders. SWTOR will launch with 2-3 times the population of Rift at the very least.
True but that says nothing about how it will retain subscribers. I mean just the fact that it is Star Wars is enough to get a million box sales.
I don't believe in growth in MMO's anymore. Half of the preorders will stop playing after a few months.
Exactly and one needs to ask the question, why did MMOs use to grow in subs. but now they almost always decline sharply.
I call this the Themepark effect, no matter how well designed your Themepark is people will get bored of riding your rides. Sandbox on the other side, if they are any good, allow the players to design their own rides and that is why games like Eve have steadily grown from 30k subs at release to over 300k and holding.
WoW is the only exception to this.
LOTRO showed growth for its first two years. Again, it had a lot of lifetime subs so its numbers might be skewed, but given the lifetime subs were constant the non-lifetime subs did actively grow for the first 2 years of the games life (but how many of those lifetime subs stopped playing we dont know)
I think the genre has grown so much and hype builds so much that first month spikes will be common place. The key is what happens fater the initial spike. Rift continues to go down.
There just havent been enough good themeparks to really make a clear decision. there have only been 4 high quality ones at release. 2 of those had growth (WoW, LOTRO), 2 have not (EQ2, Rift).
I'm expecting this to be one of the biggest launches in history if not the biggest, and i'm expecting GW2 to surpass this even.
Will not happen bud, the GW2 part.
Why not? Are you going to singlehandedly stop that from happening? I can already imagine a B2P game of just similar quality launching stronger that a P2P one just because it's Buy 2 Play. Whether you think it will launch bigger or not is just your opinion, no more, no less, not fact just yet.
I don't believe in growth in MMO's anymore. Half of the preorders will stop playing after a few months.
Not really and one needs to ask the question, why did some MMOS didn't grow while other went into decline, while others ar stable for years. Well there is no easy answer. it all depends upon quality of release and how companies support their game post launch.
I call this Themepark effect, if a game is well designed and is stable, your themepark people will never get tired of riding the rides. Sandbox on the other side, if they are good, allow the the players to design their own rides. But let us be fair here..sandbox MMOS hardly provide players with enough tools and always suffer from poor quality and shoddy support. EVE is notan anomoly in sandbox world. It shows quality and support rules everything else. EVE grew steadily from 30K subs to 300K and holding. So in the end themepark or sandbox..if your game is good people will play.
WOW is perfect example how good quality themepark MMOS can rule MMO genre.
How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?
ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6. US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian. Subs will be so low there is no need for more Snoocky-How many servers? The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...
Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.
Rift did the same...Rift and WAR had similar releases (minor this staggering crap)...true test is in 6 months.
The staggering is a good idea even if it is unpopular amongst some inpatient players.
^ this.
Anyway yeah.. subscriptions havn't even happened yet, and despite self entitlement butt hurt we can't even base the games performance on anything yet. My mate who got in cause he pre-ordered like day 1 is saying everything is running smooth though.. and I tend to trust my friends opinion and my own personal opinion gathered from beta over a bunch of random forum peoples.. so I think the game is doing great so far. Can't wait for my email fingers crossed tomorrow or the next day.
Rift did the same...Rift and WAR had similar releases (minor this staggering crap)...true test is in 6 months.
Yep and where is Rift now? Most servers were high in the first 1-2 months and now you rarely have any high, most are medium and some low so my guess is that Rift has lost around 50%.
To be fair, it took rift several weeks just to hit the 1mil sales.
SWTOR hit close to 1 mil sales in just box pre-orders. SWTOR will launch with 2-3 times the population of Rift at the very least.
True but that does give us a little idea of how many subscribers it may retain. I mean just the fact that it is Star Wars / Bioware and that game is actually fun is enough to get a million or more box sales.
How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?
ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6. US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian. Subs will be so low there is no need for more Snoocky-How many servers? The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...
Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.
Exactly and one needs to ask the question, why did MMOs use to grow in subs. but now they almost always decline sharply.
Seeking simplistic answers to complex questions?
Bear in mind, "almost always" consists of a few major examples, and all in the last few years. And they've all got different reasons why they "failed", yet you're indulging in converse accident anyway (hasty generalization, forming a general rule by examining a few examples).
"JFK, Clinton, and Warren G. Harding were considered womanizers-->All Presidents are womanizers."
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Exactly and one needs to ask the question, why did MMOs use to grow in subs. but now they almost always decline sharply.
In my opinion? Because the market is now flooded with options. Back in the day there was a handful of quality MMOs out there.. now theres quite a few.. so where as before 'sub par' was enough to hold and even gain subscriptions.. now it doesn't cut it.
I'm expecting this to be one of the biggest launches in history if not the biggest, and i'm expecting GW2 to surpass this even.
I would really love to see what all you guys see with GW2... but I just don't.
As to the OP - Aion was at 3.5 million or so last I checked.
Aion was done by NCSoft. NCSoft tradtionally carries the asian heavy games. The NA/Euro populations in Aion are miniscule.
Doesn't matter, its still an MMO. Lineage 2 also had a good couple of million back in the day. Or do these games not count simply because they are in another part of the world?
That is were your wrong it does not matter because most of asia either A. don't pay the cost for the software it is usually free and almost none of them are on a montly pay basis.
Exactly and one needs to ask the question, why did MMOs use to grow in subs. but now they almost always decline sharply.
In my opinion? Because the market is now flooded with options. Back in the day there was a handful of quality MMOs out there.. now theres quite a few.. so where as before 'sub par' was enough to hold and even gain subscriptions.. now it doesn't cut it.
What I would add to this is that the MMO as a gaming type is also much more popular now then back when UO and EQ were king. What with high speed connections being much more prevelant and websites dedicated to MMOs in particular being every where.
I'm not sure why GW2 is being brought up, since it will not have subscriptions. If you want to compare box sales, then go for it.
Ah the TOR forums let the GW2 bashing begin. Its being brought up because its relevent. Its relevent because for one, the GW2 game hype is higher than the TOR hype which is declining, the pvp in GW2 will be better thats without a doubt, theres also alot of hate towards GW2 because it doesn't follow the carrot on a stick philosophy. I think the impending release of GW2 so close to the release of TOR really threatens the Themepark raider crowd. Its kind of funny watching these petty attacks actually.
I'm expecting this to be one of the biggest launches in history if not the biggest, and i'm expecting GW2 to surpass this even.
Lol seriously? Dude, I waved the GW flag for a long time, too. I lobbied SO hard to get my friends to join me, and they all came back with "GW sucks, come play WoW. Yeah, it has PVP too."
Then one day I woke up and realized that GW really did suck, and WoW had everything I wanted: superior PvP and by far and away superior PVE. And for that matter, of the millions of kids whaving the "E-Sport" flag, 0.0001% of them really have the talent that it takes to be part of an "E-sport" (and I'll admit it, I'm one of those average sucktastic PVPers who just does it for fun, and I'm willing to admit it.).
Face it, GW was pretty bloom graphics and waif cute girlie characters. Beyond that it had nothing.
I'm not sure why GW2 is being brought up, since it will not have subscriptions. If you want to compare box sales, then go for it.
Ah the TOR forums let the GW2 bashing begin. Its being brought up because its relevent. Its relevent because for one, the GW2 game hype is higher than the TOR hype which is declining, the pvp in GW2 will be better thats without a doubt, theres also alot of hate towards GW2 because it doesn't follow the carrot on a stick philosophy. I think the impending release of GW2 so close to the release of TOR really threatens the Themepark raider crowd. Its kind of funny watching these petty attacks actually.
Come on dude... observer wasn't bashing GW2.. or you are just too over sensitive by birth? all he said was that it is more reasonable to compare two P2P models instead of B2P game because no monthly sub does factor in. Where SWTOR success will be solely on retention rate, GW2's success will be on numbers of boxes sold. Agree or disagree with him but he wasn't bashing GW2.
How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?
ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6. US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian. Subs will be so low there is no need for more Snoocky-How many servers? The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...
Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.
I'm expecting this to be one of the biggest launches in history if not the biggest, and i'm expecting GW2 to surpass this even.
Lol seriously? Dude, I waved the GW flag for a long time, too. I lobbied SO hard to get my friends to join me, and they all came back with "GW sucks, come play WoW. Yeah, it has PVP too."
Then one day I woke up and realized that GW really did suck, and WoW had everything I wanted: superior PvP and by far and away superior PVE. And for that matter, of the millions of kids whaving the "E-Sport" flag, 0.0001% of them really have the talent that it takes to be part of an "E-sport" (and I'll admit it, I'm one of those average sucktastic PVPers who just does it for fun, and I'm willing to admit it.).
Face it, GW was pretty bloom graphics and waif cute girlie characters. Beyond that it had nothing.
It doesn't have the box sales of WoW yet. Nor does it have the promise of Warhammer or any other infinity+1 MMOs that promised great things but presented the features of jack, s***, or somewhere between jack and s***.
If GW2 is what it boasts, see you there, and glad to meet you.
If not, well... yeah, I'm bettng on the "if not" bit. God, how I relish nerdrage.
I don't believe in growth in MMO's anymore. Half of the preorders will stop playing after a few months.
Exactly and one needs to ask the question, why did MMOs use to grow in subs. but now they almost always decline sharply.
I call this the Themepark effect, no matter how well designed your Themepark is people will get bored of riding your rides. Sandbox on the other side, if they are any good, allow the players to design their own rides and that is why games like Eve have steadily grown from 30k subs at release to over 300k and holding.
WoW is the only exception to this.
LOTRO showed growth for its first two years. Again, it had a lot of lifetime subs so its numbers might be skewed, but given the lifetime subs were constant the non-lifetime subs did actively grow for the first 2 years of the games life (but how many of those lifetime subs stopped playing we dont know)
I think the genre has grown so much and hype builds so much that first month spikes will be common place. The key is what happens fater the initial spike. Rift continues to go down.
There just havent been enough good themeparks to really make a clear decision. there have only been 4 high quality ones at release. 2 of those had growth (WoW, LOTRO), 2 have not (EQ2, Rift).
LOTRO had growth yes but after two years it started dropping and then it went F2P. Also I dont know what you mean with high quality MMORPGs but AoC, Aion, DCU, CoX and WAR were all considered big budget triple A releases. And all of them, beside Aion, have sharply declined, and then most went F2P.
I don't think any other game has provided SO MUCH play time before even a release date is announced like GW2 has...
Everyone I've read or talked to who have played the game absolutely love it.
Arenanet is confident about their approach and Jeeeeezus does the MMO genre NEED a new approach to the dated gameplay you see in all popular MMOs these days...
They aren't overrating anything.. they allow everyone to see the game for what it is... no smoke and mirrors... you like it?.. fine.. buy it... it's not for you?... thats fine.. we understand.
If you also compare the two business models... TOR charges an INSANE amount for the box and demands a subscription fee... if you think that's a good deal then I'm sorry for your critical skills ;/
Well I'm guessing but lol they've already surpassed the pops of other established MMOs in 2 hours.
These Types of posts really anger me, another fanboy pretty much saying OOOO my MMo is the best thing since sliced bread... for one thing his got no evidences to back up his claim, thats its seconds behind which i'm guessing is WoW, and 2 just over excitments for the game... YYY post such garbage? saying this maybe in 5-6 months time when other "established" MMo's are out and with evidences to the claim then boast... maybe... In the mean Time shut up and enjoy ya game... for whateva hype It's got going for it at the moment.. its was the same with Rift and Warhammer and there just distant memories now... its just utter stupiity
Comments
Exactly and one needs to ask the question, why did MMOs use to grow in subs. but now they almost always decline sharply.
I call this the Themepark effect, no matter how well designed your Themepark is people will get bored of riding your rides. Sandbox on the other side, if they are any good, allow the players to design their own rides and that is why games like Eve have steadily grown from 30k subs at release to over 300k and holding.
WoW is the only exception to this.
My gaming blog
True but that says nothing about how it will retain subscribers. I mean just the fact that it is Star Wars is enough to get a million box sales.
My gaming blog
LOTRO showed growth for its first two years. Again, it had a lot of lifetime subs so its numbers might be skewed, but given the lifetime subs were constant the non-lifetime subs did actively grow for the first 2 years of the games life (but how many of those lifetime subs stopped playing we dont know)
I think the genre has grown so much and hype builds so much that first month spikes will be common place. The key is what happens fater the initial spike. Rift continues to go down.
There just havent been enough good themeparks to really make a clear decision. there have only been 4 high quality ones at release. 2 of those had growth (WoW, LOTRO), 2 have not (EQ2, Rift).
Why not? Are you going to singlehandedly stop that from happening? I can already imagine a B2P game of just similar quality launching stronger that a P2P one just because it's Buy 2 Play. Whether you think it will launch bigger or not is just your opinion, no more, no less, not fact just yet.
Not really and one needs to ask the question, why did some MMOS didn't grow while other went into decline, while others ar stable for years. Well there is no easy answer. it all depends upon quality of release and how companies support their game post launch.
I call this Themepark effect, if a game is well designed and is stable, your themepark people will never get tired of riding the rides. Sandbox on the other side, if they are good, allow the the players to design their own rides. But let us be fair here..sandbox MMOS hardly provide players with enough tools and always suffer from poor quality and shoddy support. EVE is notan anomoly in sandbox world. It shows quality and support rules everything else. EVE grew steadily from 30K subs to 300K and holding. So in the end themepark or sandbox..if your game is good people will play.
WOW is perfect example how good quality themepark MMOS can rule MMO genre.
How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?
ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6.
US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian.
Subs will be so low there is no need for more
Snoocky-How many servers?
The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...
Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.
^ this.
Anyway yeah.. subscriptions havn't even happened yet, and despite self entitlement butt hurt we can't even base the games performance on anything yet. My mate who got in cause he pre-ordered like day 1 is saying everything is running smooth though.. and I tend to trust my friends opinion and my own personal opinion gathered from beta over a bunch of random forum peoples.. so I think the game is doing great so far. Can't wait for my email fingers crossed tomorrow or the next day.
Which Final Fantasy Character Are You?
Final Fantasy 7
True but that does give us a little idea of how many subscribers it may retain. I mean just the fact that it is Star Wars / Bioware and that game is actually fun is enough to get a million or more box sales.
How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?
ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6.
US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian.
Subs will be so low there is no need for more
Snoocky-How many servers?
The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...
Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.
Where is this "Just Saying" phrase comming from, I see it eveywhere. I know its off topic
Buts it annoying
Seeking simplistic answers to complex questions?
Bear in mind, "almost always" consists of a few major examples, and all in the last few years. And they've all got different reasons why they "failed", yet you're indulging in converse accident anyway (hasty generalization, forming a general rule by examining a few examples).
"JFK, Clinton, and Warren G. Harding were considered womanizers-->All Presidents are womanizers."
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Almost as bad as the "took an arrow to the knee" bullshit.
I agree, for some reason people now feel the need to say something, then tell you they were just saying something.
In my opinion? Because the market is now flooded with options. Back in the day there was a handful of quality MMOs out there.. now theres quite a few.. so where as before 'sub par' was enough to hold and even gain subscriptions.. now it doesn't cut it.
Which Final Fantasy Character Are You?
Final Fantasy 7
That is were your wrong it does not matter because most of asia either A. don't pay the cost for the software it is usually free and almost none of them are on a montly pay basis.
WHAT WHAT WHAT! 8months in Aion was down to 4 servers.
What I would add to this is that the MMO as a gaming type is also much more popular now then back when UO and EQ were king. What with high speed connections being much more prevelant and websites dedicated to MMOs in particular being every where.
for people with normal social interactions this has been around for a few years. Not that I like it, but it's really odd timing to complain now.
I'm not sure why GW2 is being brought up, since it will not have subscriptions. If you want to compare box sales, then go for it.
Ah the TOR forums let the GW2 bashing begin. Its being brought up because its relevent. Its relevent because for one, the GW2 game hype is higher than the TOR hype which is declining, the pvp in GW2 will be better thats without a doubt, theres also alot of hate towards GW2 because it doesn't follow the carrot on a stick philosophy. I think the impending release of GW2 so close to the release of TOR really threatens the Themepark raider crowd. Its kind of funny watching these petty attacks actually.
Lol seriously? Dude, I waved the GW flag for a long time, too. I lobbied SO hard to get my friends to join me, and they all came back with "GW sucks, come play WoW. Yeah, it has PVP too."
Then one day I woke up and realized that GW really did suck, and WoW had everything I wanted: superior PvP and by far and away superior PVE. And for that matter, of the millions of kids whaving the "E-Sport" flag, 0.0001% of them really have the talent that it takes to be part of an "E-sport" (and I'll admit it, I'm one of those average sucktastic PVPers who just does it for fun, and I'm willing to admit it.).
Face it, GW was pretty bloom graphics and waif cute girlie characters. Beyond that it had nothing.
Sorry, guy.
Come on dude... observer wasn't bashing GW2.. or you are just too over sensitive by birth? all he said was that it is more reasonable to compare two P2P models instead of B2P game because no monthly sub does factor in. Where SWTOR success will be solely on retention rate, GW2's success will be on numbers of boxes sold. Agree or disagree with him but he wasn't bashing GW2.
How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?
ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6.
US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian.
Subs will be so low there is no need for more
Snoocky-How many servers?
The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...
Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.
You failed so hard, GW isnt GW2
That's true, guy.
But GW2 doesn't exist yet.
It doesn't have the box sales of WoW yet. Nor does it have the promise of Warhammer or any other infinity+1 MMOs that promised great things but presented the features of jack, s***, or somewhere between jack and s***.
If GW2 is what it boasts, see you there, and glad to meet you.
If not, well... yeah, I'm bettng on the "if not" bit. God, how I relish nerdrage.
LOTRO had growth yes but after two years it started dropping and then it went F2P. Also I dont know what you mean with high quality MMORPGs but AoC, Aion, DCU, CoX and WAR were all considered big budget triple A releases. And all of them, beside Aion, have sharply declined, and then most went F2P.
My gaming blog
I don't think any other game has provided SO MUCH play time before even a release date is announced like GW2 has...
Everyone I've read or talked to who have played the game absolutely love it.
Arenanet is confident about their approach and Jeeeeezus does the MMO genre NEED a new approach to the dated gameplay you see in all popular MMOs these days...
They aren't overrating anything.. they allow everyone to see the game for what it is... no smoke and mirrors... you like it?.. fine.. buy it... it's not for you?... thats fine.. we understand.
If you also compare the two business models... TOR charges an INSANE amount for the box and demands a subscription fee... if you think that's a good deal then I'm sorry for your critical skills ;/
..Cake..
These Types of posts really anger me, another fanboy pretty much saying OOOO my MMo is the best thing since sliced bread... for one thing his got no evidences to back up his claim, thats its seconds behind which i'm guessing is WoW, and 2 just over excitments for the game... YYY post such garbage? saying this maybe in 5-6 months time when other "established" MMo's are out and with evidences to the claim then boast... maybe... In the mean Time shut up and enjoy ya game... for whateva hype It's got going for it at the moment.. its was the same with Rift and Warhammer and there just distant memories now... its just utter stupiity