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WoW vs. SWTOR viability - the key stat is new players
blackweb
Member UncommonPosts: 24
The key to MMORPG viability is "how many new players are coming to the game?" or "how many players are leveling new characters?" when the starting zones are empty, its over for an MMORPG. Why are starting zone numbers so important to MMORPG viability? Because without new players it is very difficult for guilds to recruit and form new guilds or replace losses due to attrition in existing guilds. New blood is the key to guild and MMORPG viability.
Lets compare The number of players in WoW's Alliance starting zones on the Maelstrom RP-PvP server to the number of players in the Republic starting zones on the Ven Zallow RP-PvP server from levels 1-20 today, Sunday March 3/25/2012 at 11:00 AM CST. Both servers are medium population. Here are the numbers;
Maelstrom Alliance: 1-20 - 28 characters
Ven Zallow Repuplic: 1-20 - 88 characters.
The numbers speak for themselves. SWTOR is clearly growing twice as fast as wow by sufficient numbers more than replace any losses due to attrition while WoW is in maintenance mode at best or is slowly losing players. Neither game is dying but SWTOR is clearly more healthy than WoW. You will likely find similar results on most servers in WoW and SWTOR.
Edit:
Objectively, which is a better recruiting pool for guild leaders, 28 characters scattered across 15 zones or 88 characters in 3 zones?
I recruited 20 new players in one 10-16 zone, Courscant yesterday. Only about 1/4 of them were alts. Today in Westfall there were only 3 characters from 10-15. Yesterday on Courscant there were 20-35 all day.
Feel free to post your results from your server(s).
Comments
I think there is a design flaw in SW:TOR. The zones are planets. On top of this, the fleet is the hub of social interaction. So, most players do not intereact with new players and the starting areas are empty. In contrast, WoW has starting areas just outside the major cities. I think it is important to have starting areas around major hubs, then have the content designed to be progressively difficult the further you venture away from the hub.
If new characters is the measure of good design, SWTOR is clearly winning.
Was the server full, heavy, standard or light?, do you think the free trial weekend will have any affect on the starting areas population?Both games are doing promotions this weekend so again, I am comparing apples to apples. Both servers are medium population.
I would imagine that the emphasis of one game on repeatedly rerolling versus the emphasis of the other game on maintaining playing a single or main max level character has no effect on this scientifically supported hypothesis.
Edit: You may also want to count lvl 1-34 in WoW or 1-12 in SWTOR to maintain the same percentage of max level in both games.
Again, new characters are THE key measure of MMORPG viability. As a guild leader, I can attest to that fact.
Both games are doing promotions this weekend so again, I am comparing apples to apples. Both servers are medium population.
One has a permanent free trial and one doesn't, I presume you mean standard as thee is no medium in SWTOR?Sorry, but your reasoning is way off: You assume that new characters mean new players. But that's not a valid assumption, certainly not in a game where making alts is considered "endgame".
I maintain this List of Sandbox MMORPGs. Please post or send PM for corrections and suggestions.
I can't really speak to his choice of server, but I know on my (now former) PvP server Daragon Trail (SWTOR), there was no where near close to those numbers and the Fleet population was rapidly decreasing. It would be extremely lucky to hit 100 people now on the Sith side (as opposed to 300+ 3 weeks post launch) during prime time.
You are letting your personal bias interfere with your objectivity. Objectively, which is a better recruiting pool for guild leaders, 28 characters scattered across 15 zones or 88 characters in 3 zones?
I recruited 20 new players in one 10-16 zone, Courscant yesterday. Only about 1/4 of them were alts. Today in Westfall there were only 3 characters from 10-15. Yesterday on Courscant there were 20-35 all day.
I believe the industry is ripe for an innovation to keep the starter zones occupied so that entering players are not in a waste land.
I have seen games 'attempt' various things to combat this, however they seem to have either fallen short or created a domino effect of unintended consequences.
For examples:
Soloability - I believe the reason people screamed for it and the reason it was implemented in many games, including but not limited to, EQ2, WoW, Rift, WAR, etc. At last, it is possible to level an alt or enter a game after the initial crowd levels.
Unintened consequences
- the initial 'crowd' upon release stopped grouping to reach max level. It may have provided those trickling in with the ability to level up and join the fun at end game, but it killed a major social element for everyone.
- leveling ceases to be the game, it becomes a process to reach the game; although soloability isn't solely responsible for end game focus, it drew a solid line between what had been a fuzzy transition before between leveling and end game.
- the game by design, is 'lonely'. Related to the first consequence, the entire atmosphere of an mmo is forever altered by soloability.
Mentoring:
Now your high level friends can come help you in newbie zones and have some benefit for themselves.
Unintended consequence:
It formalizes 'power leveling'. Where before this was a player-driven use of skills, and totally altruistic, it became a game mechanic. All of the fun of levelling is sapped right out as it becomes a zerg fest to by-pass the game for the end game. Perhaps not so much a terrible mechanic, but definately terribly implemented.
Fast leveling:
It will take me as long to reach max level as it did the initial crowd, no matter how many expansions.
Whatever time it took you to reach 60 in vanilla WoW, is very likely to be about the same amount of time it would take to max to 85 (or 90 soon) starting a new toon today. **RULE OF THUMB ; illustration of fast leveling theory/philosophy only**
Unintended consequences:
Too many to name but to highight:
- Newbs at end game: people reach 85 without mastering initial content
- Obsolete gear and questlines. Rememer that cool quest in the level 30 zone that got you that cool epic item? Yeah don't bother, a green drop from the lvl 30 zone in the new expansion will be twice as good.
- Starter zones needing to be completely re-worked to make since with a game with twice the levels as release.
Cross-server dungeon finders:
At last a group for the level 12 dungeon.
Go to any forum about mmo's and get your popcorn for the unintended consequences.
-So what is next? Those either don't work, change what an 'mmo' is, or are very poorly implemented. But hey, at least they're trying.
You are comparing a game that was just released to a game that has been out for 7 odd years, mmos after so long tend to be top heavy level wise.
Just becasue thats what you encounted on that server with your guild does not making it fact across the board, one of the biggest thread on SWTOR is one complaining about their servers being dead and that is a new game thats not been released long, not a good sign.
Again, just because facts disagree with your closely held beliefs does not make them wrong. Go take a look on your server(s), prove me wrong if you can. I think you will find a pattern across almost all WoW and SWTOR servers, SWTOR is growing, WoW is in maintenance mode at best.
Yeh and in beta it was like that with the Capitals being used until they added fleets in which ruined the game.
You are comparing a game that was just released to a game that has been out for 7 odd years, mmos after so long tend to be top heavy level wise.
Just becasue thats what you encounted on that server with your guild does not making it fact across the board, one of the biggest thread on SWTOR is one complaining about their servers being dead and that is a new game thats not been released long, not a good sign.
Again, just because facts disagree with your closely held beliefs does not make them wrong. Go take a look on your server(s), prove me wrong if you can. I think you will find a pattern across almost all WoW and SWTOR servers, SWTOR is growing, WoW is in maintenance mode at best.
I bet WoW's percentage fall in Q1 2012 is far far less than SWTOR'sYou better not make assumptions about my bias, you don't even know what my bias is.
I maintain this List of Sandbox MMORPGs. Please post or send PM for corrections and suggestions.
Right, those well grounded "facts" you have presented disprove any possible counter. Good luck with that. Looks like a typical forum "discussion".
When i quit i did so because most of my friends list had not logged in for a while, my guild went from 16 man nightmare to not having enough people for 8man....
If there are new players joining so much it explains why they still have 1.7 mil subs, even tho compared to launch population after 2 months was MUCH lower, my server had 5-6h queue on launch, after 2 month it was on standard and it was one of the servers that were still considered populated... people were rerolling on it like crazy.
Maybe the US servers are doing much better, but they lost a lot of subs in EU... could be that new players made up for the loss...
1. MMORPGs don't make money based on guild leaders' ability to recruit.
2. Overall population is way more important than lowbie zone population.
3. Installs (new players) are important for any game of course, but to call it "the key stat" is to undervalue the importance of retaining existing players. There's a reason that the lion's share of WOW's live development work has gone into the part of the game with the most players (max level content.) The only criticism that makes a little sense is that Cataclysm's revamp to newbie content was a long time coming and probably should've been done much earlier (letting leveling content become that outdated almost certainly reduced how many players stuck through until endgame.)
4. Also it's ridiculous to compare the install rates of two games of vastly different ages. Obviously a newer AAA MMORPG is going to win.
I have nothing against ToR (I rather enjoyed it,) but the way you're presenting this thread makes no damn sense and is completely irrelevant to most players.
"What is truly revealing is his implication that believing something to be true is the same as it being true. [continue]" -John Oliver
http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=340773 Server Merges
http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=350700&page=71 Server population is dropping...
http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=375176 Is this game dying already or is it just slowing down?
http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=340708 When will there be a "SERVER MERGE?"
http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=374849 Give us 1.2 as it is FAST !!! Too many players leaving the game !!!
and of course who can forget the "active" players polled http://i.imgur.com/DMObE.png
Yeah, sure this game is surging! LOL
and listen to the radio podcast from teh guild leader sumit. All but two guilds were crying about a severe drop in members and no new players joning, well except rerolling alts.
These so called 'facts' are hardly definitive though. Just because you came to a conclusion from your personal experience doesn't mean in any way that's the actual situation of these games. Your point of view is considerably more biased than anyone countering you because you're basing your 'conclusion' off extremely minimal research.
Stop trying to write people's opinions off just because they disagree with your obviously flawed research that you claim is conclusive when it's anything but. I could just as easily make the same claims that you did in favor of WoW, but without any any logical research done it's not as definitive as you'd like it to be.
Keep trying to open the eyes of gamers. Don't let the ones who disagree with you try to manipulate your thinking. Never give up! It is us the gamers who drive online multiplayer games. Without players, where is the game?
There is a kind of error in the logic that both can't be viable. You will see both games for a long time to come. Whether you like, one, the other, or neither. Might as well live with it with good grace.
I self identify as a monkey.
QQ threads are not facts.
QQ threads are not facts.
On January 8th, with sales at 1.88 miillion, one week after the new year, servers were (by hours/status) approximately 30% heavy, 45% standard, 25% light and wait times were still possilble on the heaviest servers. This weekend's peak, including TRIAL USERS was 4% heavy 44% standard and 52% light on 2.22 million units sold. Further, over 80% of all servers now run at 50% or less time at standard. Some servers have not gotten out of light for weeks.
Thanks to MosesZD for the info.