lol I have no idea... but every single MMO player I know IRL is hyped for GW2 and most have alread pre-purchased.
It's going to be a lot.
Unless the quality/polish does a nose dive off of a cliff after level 30, I don't see any reason why this game is not going to be hugely successful.
Once people hit 80 and there is no new "end-game" as in no real carrots to chase, who knows how long the retention will last.
Between PvP (both instanced and W v W) and all the PvE acheivements and cosmetic gear and elite events/metas I am sure this game will keep me enthralled for quite some time.
A little bird who was not really all that hyped before and somehow was able to play the game recently couldn't shut up about how amazing it was.
between 2005 and 2011 gw1 sold over 10 million copies. as a longshot my best guess is that gw2 will beat this number and get sold over 15 million times in the next 5 years. and because its 'buy to play' gw2 does not have to be worried about competitioners like the upcoming tera or secret world, instead these games can be in trouble if gw2 can hold up to their promise for a longterm motivating game. until the end of the year my best guess is that gw2 will hit the 3-4 million mark. but how many players will be actually play gw2 active (!) after 3-6 months after launch .... phew no idea yet.
Wrong! It has actually only sold about 6 million and that is divided between all of the expansion packs. Where do you people come up with your numbers?
Originally posted by Cetra If swtor can get 1.7m players, GW2 can easily 2x or 3x it.
Highly doubtful. 3x SWTOR equals the whole western population of WoW in its prime years. Still, if the console version is a success, I can see GW2 peaking at 1m+ active accounts.
MMORPG genre is dead. Long live MMOCS (Massively Multiplayer Online Cash Shop).
ANet will never release information on how many ACTIVE PLAYERS there are, such as how many people are logging in on a daily basis or whatever, they will just constantly tout the "Big Number" to catch peoples attention, which is box sales.
a few years back in 2006, ANET gave estimates for concurrent users
Garriott estimates 100,000 people play Guild Wars across the US and EU at any given time, and 1.5-2 million total every month—and still, connection costs remain manageable.
A Korean brokerage firm estimates that GW2 will have sold 3.12 million copies by the end of 2012. What that means, if anything, as far as actual players in game at that time is anyones guess. Nevertheless, if they are anywhere near accurate with that number, Anet will be some happy campers.
ANet will never release information on how many ACTIVE PLAYERS there are, such as how many people are logging in on a daily basis or whatever, they will just constantly tout the "Big Number" to catch peoples attention, which is box sales.
a few years back in 2006, ANET gave estimates for concurrent users
Garriott estimates 100,000 people play Guild Wars across the US and EU at any given time, and 1.5-2 million total every month—and still, connection costs remain manageable.
who knows? ANET may offer that information again
I hope their servers are up to the challenge. I remeber in DAoC the servers really slowed down or crashed with major battles.
between 2005 and 2011 gw1 sold over 10 million copies. as a longshot my best guess is that gw2 will beat this number and get sold over 15 million times in the next 5 years. and because its 'buy to play' gw2 does not have to be worried about competitioners like the upcoming tera or secret world, instead these games can be in trouble if gw2 can hold up to their promise for a longterm motivating game. until the end of the year my best guess is that gw2 will hit the 3-4 million mark. but how many players will be actually play gw2 active (!) after 3-6 months after launch .... phew no idea yet.
Wrong! It has actually only sold about 6 million and that is divided between all of the expansion packs. Where do you people come up with your numbers?
when you consider how many expansion packs there are for GW1, that reduces the actual player figure even more, though it would be interesting to see how many of each of the expansion packs they did sell, as that would give a fair indication of active player numbers. but GW1 wasnt an MMO, even they themselves said it was a CORPG. How big GW2 is though will depend a lot on the first month of launch, i don't know what kind of figures they have for pre-orders at the moment, but after game launch is the kicker, this is the point where the ones sitting on the fence will be getting feedback from other players, and deciding for themselves whether to take the plunge.. Arenanet has a lot hanging on the game launching well, they have a lot to prove, and many promises to keep, failure in either will hurt sales. I myself will be waiting 2 - 3 months. If i'd done that with SW;TOR, i probably would never have bought the game, thats a mistake i don't particularly care to repeat.
Whenever a new MMO is released, forum-goers like to talk about retention, or what portion of players who originally purchase the game will continue to play after X months. But few people discuss the notion that the most successful MMOs don't just retained their original numbers, they grow significantly after release as word of mouth spreads about just how awesome the game actually is. Unlike any MMO in the past several years, I actually expect GW2 to be this kind of game.
I think it will be so much fun and just different enough, that many players who try it will talk about it, just as everyone who has tried it thus far seems to be.
Not even close. WoW has sold over ten million retail copies without the expansions. GW has sold around six million total copies including their expansions.
I bought GW1 cause it was on sale for 1 euro and it was sitting beside the till where i was buying a game for 39 euro and had a euro to spare wonder how many of that 6 million copys were bought for 1 euro/dollar
Not even close. WoW has sold over ten million retail copies without the expansions. GW has sold around six million total copies including their expansions.
GW wasnt / isnt / has never been an MMO, No MMO regardless of how good it is will never reach the sales figures WoW ever got, players are to spread out over the saturated market that has developed the past number of years. If GW2 was released around the same time that WoW was released then maybe it may of had the chance to break those figures, That we will never know.
I think at least 500,000 within a week of launch. Maybe 3 million with in a few months. One thing that may set the game apart from the majority of MMOs is that the numbers should continue to grow at a healthy pace over time, rather than peaking quickly before dropping of as time goes on.
A million by the end of the first two weeks is definitely possible, but I'm hedging my bets a little.
Really hard to judge. The game, with no sub fee and all it offers, could sell to most of the people who bought Skyrim and also own and play games on a PC. Breaking Skyrim's numbers down that way is difficult, though, because even if you have the number sold for the PC, you don't know how many PS3/XBOX purchasers also have a gaming PC, but decided to go with the console version for that game. (There would also have to be some top notch advertising for GW2 to really maximize first week sales, but the game should still grow over time, even if the initial numbers don't reach full potential).
We could also look to SWTOR initial sales for some idea, but how much of that was primarily driven by the Star Wars IP?
Of course, the game could blow away my projections for the opening weeks, but I think it's slightly more likely to have a "snow ball rolling down hill effect", rather than blowing out the first week sales projections with a "perfect storm effect" driving rapid, wide spread adoption.
I think you're right with the 500K on opening day. Had Skyrim been an mmo, it would have a few million players online, but I think GW2 is going to blow away any competition. It has appearances of being a really great mmo.
Comments
97 billion. For serious.
lol I have no idea... but every single MMO player I know IRL is hyped for GW2 and most have alread pre-purchased.
It's going to be a lot.
Unless the quality/polish does a nose dive off of a cliff after level 30, I don't see any reason why this game is not going to be hugely successful.
Once people hit 80 and there is no new "end-game" as in no real carrots to chase, who knows how long the retention will last.
Between PvP (both instanced and W v W) and all the PvE acheivements and cosmetic gear and elite events/metas I am sure this game will keep me enthralled for quite some time.
A little bird who was not really all that hyped before and somehow was able to play the game recently couldn't shut up about how amazing it was.
All signs point to a huge win for Anet.
Wrong! It has actually only sold about 6 million and that is divided between all of the expansion packs. Where do you people come up with your numbers?
MMORPG genre is dead. Long live MMOCS (Massively Multiplayer Online Cash Shop).
1.5-2 Million during the first month post launch, 3 Million boxes by the end of the year.
a few years back in 2006, ANET gave estimates for concurrent users
http://gigaom.com/2006/10/26/guild-wars/
Garriott estimates 100,000 people play Guild Wars across the US and EU at any given time, and 1.5-2 million total every month—and still, connection costs remain manageable.
who knows? ANET may offer that information again
EQ2 fan sites
A Korean brokerage firm estimates that GW2 will have sold 3.12 million copies by the end of 2012. What that means, if anything, as far as actual players in game at that time is anyones guess. Nevertheless, if they are anywhere near accurate with that number, Anet will be some happy campers.
I hope their servers are up to the challenge. I remeber in DAoC the servers really slowed down or crashed with major battles.
Hopefully this has all been resolved.
when you consider how many expansion packs there are for GW1, that reduces the actual player figure even more, though it would be interesting to see how many of each of the expansion packs they did sell, as that would give a fair indication of active player numbers. but GW1 wasnt an MMO, even they themselves said it was a CORPG. How big GW2 is though will depend a lot on the first month of launch, i don't know what kind of figures they have for pre-orders at the moment, but after game launch is the kicker, this is the point where the ones sitting on the fence will be getting feedback from other players, and deciding for themselves whether to take the plunge.. Arenanet has a lot hanging on the game launching well, they have a lot to prove, and many promises to keep, failure in either will hurt sales. I myself will be waiting 2 - 3 months. If i'd done that with SW;TOR, i probably would never have bought the game, thats a mistake i don't particularly care to repeat.
More than WOW within 5 years.
"My Fantasy is having two men at once...
One Cooking and One Cleaning!"
---------------------------
"A good man can make you feel sexy,
strong and able to take on the whole world...
oh sorry...that's wine...wine does that..."
Whenever a new MMO is released, forum-goers like to talk about retention, or what portion of players who originally purchase the game will continue to play after X months. But few people discuss the notion that the most successful MMOs don't just retained their original numbers, they grow significantly after release as word of mouth spreads about just how awesome the game actually is. Unlike any MMO in the past several years, I actually expect GW2 to be this kind of game.
I think it will be so much fun and just different enough, that many players who try it will talk about it, just as everyone who has tried it thus far seems to be.
Not even close. WoW has sold over ten million retail copies without the expansions. GW has sold around six million total copies including their expansions.
I bought GW1 cause it was on sale for 1 euro and it was sitting beside the till where i was buying a game for 39 euro and had a euro to spare wonder how many of that 6 million copys were bought for 1 euro/dollar
According to the KDB Daewoo Securities Research report released on April 6, Guild Wars 2 will sell 3 million copies in 2012.
http://www.kdbdw.com/bbs/download/155585.pdf?attachmentId=155585
Playing now: Cities: Skyline / Ori and the Blind Forest / Banished
GW wasnt / isnt / has never been an MMO, No MMO regardless of how good it is will never reach the sales figures WoW ever got, players are to spread out over the saturated market that has developed the past number of years. If GW2 was released around the same time that WoW was released then maybe it may of had the chance to break those figures, That we will never know.
I think you're right with the 500K on opening day. Had Skyrim been an mmo, it would have a few million players online, but I think GW2 is going to blow away any competition. It has appearances of being a really great mmo.
Re: SWTOR
"Remember, remember - Kakk says 'December.'"