GW2, SWTOR and WAR. All these three games have the same thing in common. They have enormous hype, gigantic fanbase and are getting huge media attention. In my experience, the more hype a game gets the worse it actually really is. And I don't think this will be any different.
the FACT is ArenaNet delivered EVERYTHING they said and didnt lie about anything they did
unlike bioware (probably EA fault here) and WAR.
How is that a fact, when GW2 wasn't even released yet. I dont remember a single feature that Bioware or Mythic would lie about to be SWTOR or WAR, they just hyped sub-par features, similar to GW2.
How would you know they are sub par if you haven't played the game?
They are, in fact, above par - above average implementation of features - as such liliyo is 100% correct.
Factual and accurate.
TOR, Illum didn't/doesn't work - WvW in GW2 works and works well.
WAR - castle siege/capture and such barely worked (not really at all) and they cut 6 cities and 4 classes before launch, GW2 has all content they promised in game, and we've played it / tested it - it works.
GW2, SWTOR and WAR. All these three games have the same thing in common. They have enormous hype, gigantic fanbase and are getting huge media attention. In my experience, the more hype a game gets the worse it actually really is. And I don't think this will be any different.
the FACT is ArenaNet delivered EVERYTHING they said and didnt lie about anything they did
unlike bioware (probably EA fault here) and WAR.
How is that a fact, when GW2 wasn't even released yet. I dont remember a single feature that Bioware or Mythic would lie about to be SWTOR or WAR, they just hyped sub-par features, similar to GW2.
How would you know they are sub par if you haven't played the game?
They are, in fact, above par - above average implementation of features - as such liliyo is 100% correct.
Factual and accurate.
TOR, Illum didn't/doesn't work - WvW in GW2 works and works well.
WAR - castle siege/capture and such barely worked (not really at all) and they cut 6 cities and 4 classes before launch, GW2 has all content they promised in game, and we've played it / tested it - it works.
Just two examples...
Another example is that ANet isn't cutting out content right before release, the same way WAR did. Mythic cut classes and cities right before release.
will make huge money in the first week and then after a month the sales will die to nothing as will content updates.
You are very very wrong.
Most people havent even heared or considered playing GW2, this will be the first game since WoW where sales gradually will continue. Mouth to mouth advertisment will make sure of that. This game you cna join 3 months after release without fearing to find empty zones all over the place.
Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)
Successful, but a niche game in a similar sense to GW1.
Reasoning: Oversaturated market, limited marketing, different appeal than typical P2P title, unknown replayability.
GW1 is the second best selling MMO of all time in the West, and GW2 is far more ambitious, far more heavily marketed, and has far larger release sale predictions. I highly doubt it will be "niche."
Successful, but a niche game in a similar sense to GW1.
Reasoning: Oversaturated market, limited marketing, different appeal than typical P2P title, unknown replayability.
GW1 is the second best selling MMO of all time in the West, and GW2 is far more ambitious, far more heavily marketed, and has far larger release sale predictions. I highly doubt it will be "niche."
Not entirely true, because you have to see that GW1 was actually. 4 sepperate games, so you have to divide the numbers by 4. Its hard to compare games with different merchandise models with eachother.
And so you can not compare GW2 to the orriginal GW either.
The poll prooves so far that people belive GW2 will be atleast the best MMO since WoW
Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)
Successful, but a niche game in a similar sense to GW1.
Reasoning: Oversaturated market, limited marketing, different appeal than typical P2P title, unknown replayability.
GW1 is the second best selling MMO of all time in the West, and GW2 is far more ambitious, far more heavily marketed, and has far larger release sale predictions. I highly doubt it will be "niche."
Not entirely true, because you have to see that GW1 was actually. 4 sepperate games, so you have to divide the numbers by 4. Its hard to compare games with different merchandise models with eachother.
And so you can not compare GW2 to the orriginal GW either.
The poll prooves so far that people belive GW2 will be atleast the best MMO since WoW
Box sales wise, absolutely. There's no way around that. The game is too awesome ^ ^
GW2 is going to be a major, major player in the MMO genre and a "game-changer" in terms of shaping the future of this genre.
That being said, nothing is going to straight up "kill WoW" but WoW itself - and that's just a combination of time and age and limitations of their design.
If GW2 ever has more players than WoW it won't be till after another couple of years at least.
Very logical. I agree.
Sidenote: you have a bit too many options in the poll
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
GW2, SWTOR and WAR. All these three games have the same thing in common. They have enormous hype, gigantic fanbase and are getting huge media attention. In my experience, the more hype a game gets the worse it actually really is. And I don't think this will be any different.
Flawed reasoning I see far too much on these forums.
There is no more relationship between the success of one hyped MMO or another than there is between the 50% chance of getting heads on a coin flip after you got three heads in a row immediately prior and the lower chance you IMAGINE there is.
Hype will always accompany a game of sufficient size and of a genre that interests people. Those who hope for the best will always be very vocal and their activity misrepresentative of the gaming population as a whole - as will those who want the worst.
What actually matters to ACTUAL success is the quality of the game.
Your conclusions are meanigless unless they address that issue - your experience being merely illogically connected observation.
I never judge games based on what I have played in the past, because it's pointless. If I invest in a new game I expect it to be better than any older title I played last year or the year before otherwise I will not even waste my money on it. So to judge a game on a game like Wow which I only beta tested and hated because of the ease of game play and for me this was the down fall of challanging MMO's and imo still not recovered to this date.
The fear factor has gone from many games and I'm afraid it may never return like in the early days of EQI Ashrons Call and many like it. So like I said you can never judge any game on others and to do so is ridicules. Games like GW2 have to stand on their own merit and since I have beta tested all three weekends this is the first real game to have me getting withdrawal symptoms for a long time so that says it all for me.
So is GW2 perfect, far from it, but it has something that has me coming back, I loved the WvW and only played it for the last 8 hours of BW3 and regret not playing this from BW1 and I have not even played the PvP side in any other of the beta weekends as I wanted to start it from when the game goes live to enjoy it fully. I've not been looking forward to any other game than this for a long time and that has me feeling good and tbh I'n not bothered about any other game after enjoying my time in this so that's cool for me.
it will be successful but NOTHING like WoW. it will never make the amount of money that blizz makes off WoW.
No it probably will not, because it has no subscriptions, and its highly unlikely that there might be 10M people playing spending on average $15 a month on cosmetic items.
Actually.. you would be surprised.
When I played Runs of Magic I easily racked up well over 15 dollars in the one month I played it. All spent on cosmetic items or mounts.
Then I noticed what I was doing, stopped playing and uninstalled as quick as I could and went back to a subscription game.
But the fact remains that cosmetic items might very well sells nicely, especially if they are quite cheap. It is much easier to spend 15 times 1 dollar than spend 15 dollars 1 time even if at the end you have spent 15 dollars anyway. Otherwise, the prolification of F2P games that thrive on such things cannot be explained.
That is also why Collectable card games comes in booster packs, usually costing just 4-5 dollars each. ArenaNet actually sells booster packs of dyes and mini pets in their store, expect tons of people buying those XD
EDIT: I took the "GW2 will with time overtake WoW" option . I believe we are witnessing the end of the WoW-Era and the start of the Dynamic-Era. I would not be surprised in the least if Titan will be a B2P or F2P game heavily influenced by GW2... or then it is a sandbox.
"If you give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, if you teach him how to fish, you feed him for a lifetime"
It will be the most successful AAA Western MMO since WoW. I'm pretty certain of that. It will likely eclipse the fading WoW at some point for total active players, but a year or three years? Who knows. It may even sell more total boxes after five years than WoW sold in it's first five years. Maybe. (Including expansion sales for both games).
I also think this will be a game that sells more boxes between month 2 and month 12 than it does by the end of the first month live. This will be the opposite of the "flash in the pan" we have seen for most post-WoW MMOs.
For the record, I also think that total year one revenue from the Gem Store will surpass revenue from box sales. Some players will pay nothing beyond the box price, others will pay more, (or even much more), for the game during a year than they would have for a year with a subscription based game. Everyone else will fall some where in between.
GW2 has a good shot at making the same average per active player revenue from the gem store as subscription games make from their active, sub-paying players. The difference here will be that those expenditures are optional for players.
I voted on the third option down. That's my safest bet for the time being.
Just FYI, right now, if you judge success by most subs ever had....SWTOR is the most successful MMO post WoW. I don't think it will be difficult for GW2 to beat SWTOR .
It will be very difficult indeed, if you use the same criteria (subs).
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
This will be the opposite of the "flash in the pan" we have seen for most post-WoW MMOs.
The evidence provided by GW1 doesn't support this speculation, rather the opposite in fact. Sold heavily, to WoW fans, who abandoned it soon after...
People at least (I hope) learned to read a box or do some research before a purchase.
But I suspect GW2 will see a similar large initial wave of people who buy the pretty-new game without knowing a damn thing about it. You can't blame Anet for people who can't read, at least.
Hopefully, once that storm is weathered, the new game settles into a similar sales pattern in the long term.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
I think that with this option I cannot go wrong. I doubt there will ever be an MMO as successful as WoW.
Well, you picked a 100% safe bet, at any rate. Without access to Asian markets, it can't possibly be as successful.
It's too bad Blizzard never reported reliable western-market numbers. But they were reliable about avoiding marketing blunders of that magnitude, at least early on.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
This will be the opposite of the "flash in the pan" we have seen for most post-WoW MMOs.
The evidence provided by GW1 doesn't support this speculation, rather the opposite in fact. Sold heavily, to WoW fans, who abandoned it soon after...
People at least (I hope) learned to read a box or do some research before a purchase.
But I suspect GW2 will see a similar large initial wave of people who buy the pretty-new game without knowing a damn thing about it. You can't blame Anet for people who can't read, at least.
Hopefully, once that storm is weathered, the new game settles into a similar sales pattern in the long term.
Please stop spreading misinformation.
Guild Wars 1 released FOUR MONTHS after WoW did. Most people who were playing WoW weren't even touching Guild Wars at that point, because there wasn't a giant hype train for it like we see with nearly every mmo today.
And even then, the franchise went on to sell 6.5 million copies, over 4 titles. That's an average of 1.625 million copies per game. It may not be the WoW sized proportions that no other game has ever, ever, done, but it's still higher than the majority of all PC games in the US/EU.
However, this doesn't have anything to do with Guild Wars 2, it still COULD flop, yeah. But don't go around saying GW1 did.
Guild Wars 1 released FOUR MONTHS after WoW did. Most people who were playing WoW weren't even touching Guild Wars at that point, because there wasn't a giant hype train for it like we see with nearly every mmo today.
Revisionist history, now? Please stop spreading misinformation. I was there.
I suspect anyone who denies WoW player opening day wave/crash existed wasn't reading the fansite/unofficial message boards at the time.
Originally posted by Daggerjaydo
it still COULD flop, yeah. But don't go around saying GW1 did.
This explains the error, at least...opening day boom and bust does not imply a 'flop', or say anything at all about long-term sales. "don't go around saying GW1 did (flop)" is: ok, I didn't say that.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Comments
How would you know they are sub par if you haven't played the game?
They are, in fact, above par - above average implementation of features - as such liliyo is 100% correct.
Factual and accurate.
TOR, Illum didn't/doesn't work - WvW in GW2 works and works well.
WAR - castle siege/capture and such barely worked (not really at all) and they cut 6 cities and 4 classes before launch, GW2 has all content they promised in game, and we've played it / tested it - it works.
Just two examples...
Another example is that ANet isn't cutting out content right before release, the same way WAR did. Mythic cut classes and cities right before release.
As a big fan of Rift, I still had to vote this:
"It will be the most successful MMO post WoW"
For what i have seen so far, thee most sucessful mmo of the last years without a doubt.
Successful, but a niche game in a similar sense to GW1.
Reasoning: Oversaturated market, limited marketing, different appeal than typical P2P title, unknown replayability.
will make huge money in the first week and then after a month the sales will die to nothing as will content updates.
Yet they somehow managed plenty of updates in GW1 with the exact same marketing plan. I'm willing to take a gamble on ANets history here.......
You are very very wrong.
Most people havent even heared or considered playing GW2, this will be the first game since WoW where sales gradually will continue. Mouth to mouth advertisment will make sure of that. This game you cna join 3 months after release without fearing to find empty zones all over the place.
Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)
Over time GW2 will slowly overtake a declining Wow..
It is possible but only time will tell us if anet can pull it off..
The safe bet however would be option 3...
Playing GW2..
GW1 is the second best selling MMO of all time in the West, and GW2 is far more ambitious, far more heavily marketed, and has far larger release sale predictions. I highly doubt it will be "niche."
Not entirely true, because you have to see that GW1 was actually. 4 sepperate games, so you have to divide the numbers by 4. Its hard to compare games with different merchandise models with eachother.
And so you can not compare GW2 to the orriginal GW either.
The poll prooves so far that people belive GW2 will be atleast the best MMO since WoW
Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)
Will do ok for few months, until most players grow bored with it. Just like any other new MMO.
"The person who experiences greatness must have a feeling for the myth he is in."
Box sales wise, absolutely. There's no way around that. The game is too awesome ^ ^
Very logical. I agree.
Sidenote: you have a bit too many options in the poll
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
Flawed reasoning I see far too much on these forums.
There is no more relationship between the success of one hyped MMO or another than there is between the 50% chance of getting heads on a coin flip after you got three heads in a row immediately prior and the lower chance you IMAGINE there is.
Hype will always accompany a game of sufficient size and of a genre that interests people. Those who hope for the best will always be very vocal and their activity misrepresentative of the gaming population as a whole - as will those who want the worst.
What actually matters to ACTUAL success is the quality of the game.
Your conclusions are meanigless unless they address that issue - your experience being merely illogically connected observation.
I just went to te results. I think comparing a game's success exclusively to that of WoW's is a backward perspective.
I never judge games based on what I have played in the past, because it's pointless. If I invest in a new game I expect it to be better than any older title I played last year or the year before otherwise I will not even waste my money on it. So to judge a game on a game like Wow which I only beta tested and hated because of the ease of game play and for me this was the down fall of challanging MMO's and imo still not recovered to this date.
The fear factor has gone from many games and I'm afraid it may never return like in the early days of EQI Ashrons Call and many like it. So like I said you can never judge any game on others and to do so is ridicules. Games like GW2 have to stand on their own merit and since I have beta tested all three weekends this is the first real game to have me getting withdrawal symptoms for a long time so that says it all for me.
So is GW2 perfect, far from it, but it has something that has me coming back, I loved the WvW and only played it for the last 8 hours of BW3 and regret not playing this from BW1 and I have not even played the PvP side in any other of the beta weekends as I wanted to start it from when the game goes live to enjoy it fully. I've not been looking forward to any other game than this for a long time and that has me feeling good and tbh I'n not bothered about any other game after enjoying my time in this so that's cool for me.
Bandit.
Asbo
Actually.. you would be surprised.
When I played Runs of Magic I easily racked up well over 15 dollars in the one month I played it. All spent on cosmetic items or mounts.
Then I noticed what I was doing, stopped playing and uninstalled as quick as I could and went back to a subscription game.
But the fact remains that cosmetic items might very well sells nicely, especially if they are quite cheap. It is much easier to spend 15 times 1 dollar than spend 15 dollars 1 time even if at the end you have spent 15 dollars anyway. Otherwise, the prolification of F2P games that thrive on such things cannot be explained.
That is also why Collectable card games comes in booster packs, usually costing just 4-5 dollars each. ArenaNet actually sells booster packs of dyes and mini pets in their store, expect tons of people buying those XD
EDIT: I took the "GW2 will with time overtake WoW" option . I believe we are witnessing the end of the WoW-Era and the start of the Dynamic-Era. I would not be surprised in the least if Titan will be a B2P or F2P game heavily influenced by GW2... or then it is a sandbox.
"If you give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, if you teach him how to fish, you feed him for a lifetime"
It will be the most successful AAA Western MMO since WoW. I'm pretty certain of that. It will likely eclipse the fading WoW at some point for total active players, but a year or three years? Who knows. It may even sell more total boxes after five years than WoW sold in it's first five years. Maybe. (Including expansion sales for both games).
I also think this will be a game that sells more boxes between month 2 and month 12 than it does by the end of the first month live. This will be the opposite of the "flash in the pan" we have seen for most post-WoW MMOs.
For the record, I also think that total year one revenue from the Gem Store will surpass revenue from box sales. Some players will pay nothing beyond the box price, others will pay more, (or even much more), for the game during a year than they would have for a year with a subscription based game. Everyone else will fall some where in between.
GW2 has a good shot at making the same average per active player revenue from the gem store as subscription games make from their active, sub-paying players. The difference here will be that those expenditures are optional for players.
Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
It will be very difficult indeed, if you use the same criteria (subs).
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
The evidence provided by GW1 doesn't support this speculation, rather the opposite in fact. Sold heavily, to WoW fans, who abandoned it soon after...
People at least (I hope) learned to read a box or do some research before a purchase.
But I suspect GW2 will see a similar large initial wave of people who buy the pretty-new game without knowing a damn thing about it. You can't blame Anet for people who can't read, at least.
Hopefully, once that storm is weathered, the new game settles into a similar sales pattern in the long term.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Well, you picked a 100% safe bet, at any rate. Without access to Asian markets, it can't possibly be as successful.
It's too bad Blizzard never reported reliable western-market numbers. But they were reliable about avoiding marketing blunders of that magnitude, at least early on.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Please stop spreading misinformation.
Guild Wars 1 released FOUR MONTHS after WoW did. Most people who were playing WoW weren't even touching Guild Wars at that point, because there wasn't a giant hype train for it like we see with nearly every mmo today.
And even then, the franchise went on to sell 6.5 million copies, over 4 titles. That's an average of 1.625 million copies per game. It may not be the WoW sized proportions that no other game has ever, ever, done, but it's still higher than the majority of all PC games in the US/EU.
However, this doesn't have anything to do with Guild Wars 2, it still COULD flop, yeah. But don't go around saying GW1 did.
Revisionist history, now? Please stop spreading misinformation. I was there.
I suspect anyone who denies WoW player opening day wave/crash existed wasn't reading the fansite/unofficial message boards at the time.
This explains the error, at least...opening day boom and bust does not imply a 'flop', or say anything at all about long-term sales. "don't go around saying GW1 did (flop)" is: ok, I didn't say that.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
This. After the intial hype rush, it'll be a game most people play once in a blue moon when they're bored of their current MMO. Same as GW1.