GW2 is going to be a major, major player in the MMO genre and a "game-changer" in terms of shaping the future of this genre.
That being said, nothing is going to straight up "kill WoW" but WoW itself - and that's just a combination of time and age and limitations of their design.
If GW2 ever has more players than WoW it won't be till after another couple of years at least.
It's a 2 month buy to play game that's paper thin with a cash shop that sells stat boost.... It will replace SC2 as a change of pace game. Imo...
GW2 is going to be a major, major player in the MMO genre and a "game-changer" in terms of shaping the future of this genre.
That being said, nothing is going to straight up "kill WoW" but WoW itself - and that's just a combination of time and age and limitations of their design.
If GW2 ever has more players than WoW it won't be till after another couple of years at least.
You mean to say,"this is my opinion".We have seen EVERY single game have a majority exodus over the last 5 years and or shut down completely.
I doubt ANY of those game hoppers will ever admit they were wrong,but instead will be VERY quick to insult those who point out flaws in a game.Correct or not?I am easy,i don't hold grudge or get mad at anyone, i just ask a simple question.
My opinion is this....It will sell quite well but being a f2p it will NEVER give a true impression of the game.This is becuase with no sub fee you cannot have an exodus of subscribers can you?Basically every single person who buys the game will remain subscribed.
A better indication of a games success using this pay model would be to see how many buy the expansions.If numbers go up then a huge success,if numbers remain the same ,then i would say a good success and if numbers fall off,depending how badly not such a success.
Never forget 3 mile Island and never trust a government official or company spokesman.
I voted Niche Game, but before I get flamed, hear me out.
A niche game is a specialized game, and doesn't necessarily refer to to one that is unpopular. I consider Minecraft a niche game and if I understand the numbers correctly, it sold far more copies than SW:TOR.
I see GW2 as a specialized game for MMO vets who are tired of the current re-hash of MMORPG mechanics. To me that makes GW2 niche.
On the other side, there are millions (?) of MMO vets who are tired of re-hashed MMORPG mechanics. That could make GW2 one seriously popular niche game, very likely the largest in the MMORPG genre.
Ken Fisher - Semi retired old fart Network Administrator, now working in Network Security. I don't Forum PVP. If you feel I've attacked you, it was probably by accident. When I don't understand, I ask. Such is not intended as criticism.
Not enough box sales to warrant even more money poured into it, and the realtively high investment cost wont have it hanging around like Guildwars (1) with each expansion being (partly) financed by box sales form both late newcomers and those older players buying the expansion.
If others games are not deemed succesfull enough, when some of their subscription numbers equals an annual sale of 500 000 - 1 000 000 fullprised retail copies of a game. Will Guildwars 2 sell more than 1 000 000 copies annually after release?
MMO's are not something new and refreshing anymore, we have all seen the little twists that are done with each new game.
Not enough box sales to warrant even more money poured into it, and the realtively high investment cost wont have it hanging around like Guildwars (1) with each expansion being (partly) financed by box sales form both late newcomers and those older players buying the expansion.
If others games are not deemed succesfull enough, when some of their subscription numbers equals an annual sale of 500 000 - 1 000 000 fullprised retail copies of a game. Will Guildwars 2 sell more than 1 000 000 copies annually after release?
MMO's are not something new and refreshing anymore, we have all seen the little twists that are done with each new game.
Guildwars 2 won't change that much.
Play it while it lasts.
[mod edit]
I might be wrong about my prediction, meh :vov:
[mod edit]
Well said bro... After the initial launch wave and person start to quit or not actively play anymore.. They will see GW2 isn't the second coming (no mmo will ever be again)...
WoW / Blizz, peaked MMO popularity its that simple... Not even blizz next mmo will be as popular as WoW once was..
I wont play this game because if you say anything negative about the game the community just flame you to death. I am sure its a great game...[mod edit]
Successful, but a niche game in a similar sense to GW1.
Reasoning: Oversaturated market, limited marketing, different appeal than typical P2P title, unknown replayability.
This. After the intial hype rush, it'll be a game most people play once in a blue moon when they're bored of their current MMO. Same as GW1.
Actually, *most* people played it regularly or as often as their other MMOs. I never understand why people say this.
QuicklyScott is a GW2 detractor, he probably doesn't know anything about GW1. Same with MMOExposed, who incorrectly stated that GW1 was a ghost town before the HoM gatherers started prepping for GW2, when a friend that has actually played GW1 regularly said GW1 has always had the same amount of people on for the last few years, and towns have always been full, even before HoM.
You don't understand because you know the facts and some people around here like to spread misinformation.
This is dumb. GW2 is buy to play. WoW has a sub. A game with no subs required will never technically lose any subs. I think the best way to judge how well this game does to see how many initial box sells it has and then check to see how many box sells it has at the 6 month mark and the 12th month mark.
Number 3 based upon pre-orders, business design, gameplay design, and beta weekend previews. It will be successful I have no doubt, but will it measure up to WoW? Probably not, because I don't think its global appeal will be as great.
Imo GW2 will fare better against WoW in the west than in the east, but only time will tell...
This is dumb. GW2 is buy to play. WoW has a sub. A game with no subs required will never technically lose any subs. I think the best way to judge how well this game does to see how many initial box sells it has and then check to see how many box sells it has at the 6 month mark and the 12th month mark.
You assume wow will remain p2p; I believe that buy next year, if MoP does not do well at all, wow will go to b2p/f2p. After all, it is already f2p to lvl 20!
This is dumb. GW2 is buy to play. WoW has a sub. A game with no subs required will never technically lose any subs. I think the best way to judge how well this game does to see how many initial box sells it has and then check to see how many box sells it has at the 6 month mark and the 12th month mark.
So the future running cost, former development cost and future development cost will all be solved with the initial box sales?
They will have to rely on new player nuying the box and excisting players using the cash shop. They will not survive by everyone playing it without sinking money into the game.
Call it b2p all you want but they will still need the money to continue develop the game and to continue to keep the servers up.
I look forward to this game going live, it will make a nice change to B2P, means I can still play TSW aswell as GW2, so I believe I have the best of both worlds, a thinking mans game (TSW) and something thats a little bit of fun (GW2).
I highly doubt the expectations of those thinking this will be the next big thing after WoW will be met, sure it might prove popular but I look to GW1 to see exactly how popular the game could be, and it's more a Meh than a OMG.
However I do wish the game to achieve success in it's own right.
it will be successful but NOTHING like WoW. it will never make the amount of money that blizz makes off WoW.
No it probably will not, because it has no subscriptions, and its highly unlikely that there might be 10M people playing spending on average $15 a month on cosmetic items.
even if it did have am onthly sub,I highly doubt it would garner the same wealth as WoW has.
I'm predicting the game is such a flop they remove the sub and try to just make money on a cash shop immediately!
=P
LOL, you win.
As for the topic, I voted that it will probably be the most succesful MMO, post wow. I truly believe that. I have been coming to the MMORPG website since it first came into existance. This is the FIRST game, in all that time, that has had me hyped enough that I have bothered to post in the forums. My post history shows that I'm not fibbing about that.
( And lest anyone say I'm fibbing, My join date shows 2009 because I got a new email address in 2009 and also could not remember my password so I started a new account. I assure you that my 2009 to present post history reflects all of the many years before it).
it will be successful but NOTHING like WoW. it will never make the amount of money that blizz makes off WoW.
No it probably will not, because it has no subscriptions, and its highly unlikely that there might be 10M people playing spending on average $15 a month on cosmetic items.
even if it did have am onthly sub,I highly doubt it would garner the same wealth as WoW has.
I find it funny that these kinds of discussions tend to end up something similar to this: "my daddy will beat your daddy; your daddy can't beat my daddy, my daddy will be your daddy!"
I think Lord.Bachus is right, though GW2 will become a major player in the mmo genre, most likely it will not kill wow, like he said, only wow can kill wow.
Some devs make games to make money while others make money to make games. Considering the fact that Anet could have easily gone the sub route yet instead they went with the B2P w/ optional CS model causes me to think that Anet wasn't thinkig just of the money (though it is obviously important), they were thinking of the game and the gamers. Not sure I can say the same for Activision/Blizzard and EA/Bioware.
I think GW2 may not be money wise as succeful as WoW but it may reach the same number of active accounts as time goes on.
But before continuing with my opinion let me make it clear. No one is going to beat WoW.
Because WoW is a game that was released in 2004. And for 7 years it has beaten active account records over and over again. No one can say the same for any other MMO ever released.
But obviously WoW won't last forever. The technology behind it is very old by today's standards and obviously those playing WoW are looking for something else too. No matter how good something is you always get tired of it.
With that said, when the first COD MW was release it became the best selling FPS ever, and many argued that their sequels wouldn't be as succeful. But like it or not the fact is COD MW sequels all sold more than the first MW.
So in my opinion there is no reason that another MMO can't at least be as succeful as WoW.
I think there is enough interest in GW2 and from the beta reactions, and my own experience I think this will be a success.
Also the fact that the game doesn't have a subscription fee, may end up bringing new players to the MMORPG genre and those MMO players that are investing their time on MMOs that require a subscription may end up trying and perhaps end up enjoying GW2.
I think Arenanet is playing their cards right. If the MMO can support on the long run an active community that is something will only know in a few months after the game is released.
Something easier to measure is game sales on release date. In my opinion GW2 will beat WoW sales numbers on release date. This is something I think is more than possible.
Comments
It's a 2 month buy to play game that's paper thin with a cash shop that sells stat boost.... It will replace SC2 as a change of pace game. Imo...
You mean to say,"this is my opinion".We have seen EVERY single game have a majority exodus over the last 5 years and or shut down completely.
I doubt ANY of those game hoppers will ever admit they were wrong,but instead will be VERY quick to insult those who point out flaws in a game.Correct or not?I am easy,i don't hold grudge or get mad at anyone, i just ask a simple question.
My opinion is this....It will sell quite well but being a f2p it will NEVER give a true impression of the game.This is becuase with no sub fee you cannot have an exodus of subscribers can you?Basically every single person who buys the game will remain subscribed.
A better indication of a games success using this pay model would be to see how many buy the expansions.If numbers go up then a huge success,if numbers remain the same ,then i would say a good success and if numbers fall off,depending how badly not such a success.
Never forget 3 mile Island and never trust a government official or company spokesman.
I voted Niche Game, but before I get flamed, hear me out.
A niche game is a specialized game, and doesn't necessarily refer to to one that is unpopular. I consider Minecraft a niche game and if I understand the numbers correctly, it sold far more copies than SW:TOR.
I see GW2 as a specialized game for MMO vets who are tired of the current re-hash of MMORPG mechanics. To me that makes GW2 niche.
On the other side, there are millions (?) of MMO vets who are tired of re-hashed MMORPG mechanics. That could make GW2 one seriously popular niche game, very likely the largest in the MMORPG genre.
I might be wrong about my prediction, meh :vov:
[mod edit]
I'm so broke. I can't even pay attention.
"You have the right not to be killed"
Soon as the new feel wears off, it will go back to being just as succesfull (maybe a little more) as the first Guild Wars..
I like how someone actually, finally voted for the last option ... that it won't be successful at all.
Get real, any other choice is valid, that one is not. By sales figures, it's already successful, [mod edit]
Well said bro... After the initial launch wave and person start to quit or not actively play anymore.. They will see GW2 isn't the second coming (no mmo will ever be again)...
WoW / Blizz, peaked MMO popularity its that simple... Not even blizz next mmo will be as popular as WoW once was..
I wont play this game because if you say anything negative about the game the community just flame you to death. I am sure its a great game...[mod edit]
This poll lost any fun or meaning the moment you mentioned WoW on the list of options.
The game will surpass 1 million active players before its one year anniversary. I'm calling it.
I'm guessing it will surpass 1 million active players within 60 days of Launch. I just don't know where it will be on the one year anniversary.....
Actually, *most* people played it regularly or as often as their other MMOs. I never understand why people say this.
QuicklyScott is a GW2 detractor, he probably doesn't know anything about GW1. Same with MMOExposed, who incorrectly stated that GW1 was a ghost town before the HoM gatherers started prepping for GW2, when a friend that has actually played GW1 regularly said GW1 has always had the same amount of people on for the last few years, and towns have always been full, even before HoM.
You don't understand because you know the facts and some people around here like to spread misinformation.
This is dumb. GW2 is buy to play. WoW has a sub. A game with no subs required will never technically lose any subs. I think the best way to judge how well this game does to see how many initial box sells it has and then check to see how many box sells it has at the 6 month mark and the 12th month mark.
Number 3 based upon pre-orders, business design, gameplay design, and beta weekend previews. It will be successful I have no doubt, but will it measure up to WoW? Probably not, because I don't think its global appeal will be as great.
Imo GW2 will fare better against WoW in the west than in the east, but only time will tell...
You assume wow will remain p2p; I believe that buy next year, if MoP does not do well at all, wow will go to b2p/f2p. After all, it is already f2p to lvl 20!
So the future running cost, former development cost and future development cost will all be solved with the initial box sales?
They will have to rely on new player nuying the box and excisting players using the cash shop. They will not survive by everyone playing it without sinking money into the game.
Call it b2p all you want but they will still need the money to continue develop the game and to continue to keep the servers up.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-08-08-ncsoft-makes-q2-loss-amid-spiralling-costs
This is what GW1 contributes with at the moment "At present, the first Guild Wars game contributes just ?1.27 billion in revenue." Being b2p...
No it won't loose subs, technically, but it won't survive without income, realistically.
(For someone like me, they will perhaps get $20/year from the cash shop)
I'm so broke. I can't even pay attention.
"You have the right not to be killed"
I look forward to this game going live, it will make a nice change to B2P, means I can still play TSW aswell as GW2, so I believe I have the best of both worlds, a thinking mans game (TSW) and something thats a little bit of fun (GW2).
I highly doubt the expectations of those thinking this will be the next big thing after WoW will be met, sure it might prove popular but I look to GW1 to see exactly how popular the game could be, and it's more a Meh than a OMG.
However I do wish the game to achieve success in it's own right.
I'm predicting the game is such a flop they remove the sub and try to just make money on a cash shop immediately!
=P
even if it did have am onthly sub,I highly doubt it would garner the same wealth as WoW has.
LOL, you win.
As for the topic, I voted that it will probably be the most succesful MMO, post wow. I truly believe that. I have been coming to the MMORPG website since it first came into existance. This is the FIRST game, in all that time, that has had me hyped enough that I have bothered to post in the forums. My post history shows that I'm not fibbing about that.
( And lest anyone say I'm fibbing, My join date shows 2009 because I got a new email address in 2009 and also could not remember my password so I started a new account. I assure you that my 2009 to present post history reflects all of the many years before it).
I find it funny that these kinds of discussions tend to end up something similar to this: "my daddy will beat your daddy; your daddy can't beat my daddy, my daddy will be your daddy!"
I think Lord.Bachus is right, though GW2 will become a major player in the mmo genre, most likely it will not kill wow, like he said, only wow can kill wow.
Some devs make games to make money while others make money to make games. Considering the fact that Anet could have easily gone the sub route yet instead they went with the B2P w/ optional CS model causes me to think that Anet wasn't thinkig just of the money (though it is obviously important), they were thinking of the game and the gamers. Not sure I can say the same for Activision/Blizzard and EA/Bioware.
I think GW2 may not be money wise as succeful as WoW but it may reach the same number of active accounts as time goes on.
But before continuing with my opinion let me make it clear. No one is going to beat WoW.
Because WoW is a game that was released in 2004. And for 7 years it has beaten active account records over and over again. No one can say the same for any other MMO ever released.
But obviously WoW won't last forever. The technology behind it is very old by today's standards and obviously those playing WoW are looking for something else too. No matter how good something is you always get tired of it.
With that said, when the first COD MW was release it became the best selling FPS ever, and many argued that their sequels wouldn't be as succeful. But like it or not the fact is COD MW sequels all sold more than the first MW.
So in my opinion there is no reason that another MMO can't at least be as succeful as WoW.
I think there is enough interest in GW2 and from the beta reactions, and my own experience I think this will be a success.
Also the fact that the game doesn't have a subscription fee, may end up bringing new players to the MMORPG genre and those MMO players that are investing their time on MMOs that require a subscription may end up trying and perhaps end up enjoying GW2.
I think Arenanet is playing their cards right. If the MMO can support on the long run an active community that is something will only know in a few months after the game is released.
Something easier to measure is game sales on release date. In my opinion GW2 will beat WoW sales numbers on release date. This is something I think is more than possible.