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Does XFire Numbers Matter ?
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Since we are just looking at trends, we don't have to check whether or not they play more or less than "normal players", we have just to check if the percentual change is similar; i.e. if the amount of days it takes for the average regular player to half their playing time is about the same as the amount of days it takes for the average x-fire-using player.
I would keep it simpler and just look at the numbers logging in each day. If the numbers of XFire users logging in are falling over a reasonable timeframe you can bet money that the population as a whole is falling. There will be a margin of error, a 40% drop in logins is not necessarily a 40% drop in population.
There have been studies on XFire gamers themselves. The median time played per game is 3 hours. That means half of the games played by XFire players were played for 3 hours. The mean time played was about 40 hours. You have a small number of players playing a LOT of hours, skewing the statistics. Everyone else plays for a short time, then moves to another game.
It would be useful to post a link to these studies as many people pull such "studies" out of their ass when they want to sound authoritative.
http://www.st.ewi.tudelft.nl/~iosup/xfire-overview11mmve_online.pdf
Study was copyrighted in 2011. It was a study of XFire player statistics, not XFire game statistics.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
There have been studies on XFire gamers themselves. The median time played per game is 3 hours. That means half of the games played by XFire players were played for 3 hours. The mean time played was about 40 hours. You have a small number of players playing a LOT of hours, skewing the statistics. Everyone else plays for a short time, then moves to another game.
It would be useful to post a link to these studies as many people pull such "studies" out of their ass when they want to sound authoritative.
Not only that, but we would have to see the median time played within a specific game to determine if x-fire players play more or less than "normal" players. As I don't think any company has every published these numbers we can only guess whether or not x-fire players play more.
Since we are just looking at trends, we don't have to check whether or not they play more or less than "normal players", we have just to check if the percentual change is similar; i.e. if the amount of days it takes for the average regular player to half their playing time is about the same as the amount of days it takes for the average x-fire-using player.
I would keep it simpler and just look at the numbers logging in each day. If the numbers of XFire users logging in are falling over a reasonable timeframe you can bet money that the population as a whole is falling. There will be a margin of error, a 40% drop in logins is not necessarily a 40% drop in population.
Is this going to be like all the "game design" threads where someone posts three pictures of concept art, and then gives up?
I ask because XFire offers an XML interface to their data. You need a login to get to actual game data, but they do provide the information displayed on the website in a format that could be imported into Excel or a database. Since it's all XML format, it could be automated.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
No one with any sense is using XFire to predict actual population size, however it does have a degree of accuracy in determining the population trend within a game. In fact the post you replied to specifically states "trends" so your argument is irrelevant.
Actually my point is Xfire numbers are irrelevant to a gaming population as a whole. It is only useful to trend Xfire users.
No, they are a sample, reasonably sized, of the game population as a whole, and as such are relevant.
Sample size isn't relevant. You can have a really big, really bad sample, or a really small, really good sample. A bigger sample does not mean better data.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
GW2 had 400,000 players on at once within the month of launch and this only shows a small portion of that because its from a site that tracks its users stats.
So while 15,000 xfire users may have played guild wars 2 and then the number dropped as shown in the graph your still missing the other 385,000 players. thats not 10% of players online at that time...
WoW is very popular, has 9mil subscribers, and numbers arent high, wow has max 20k ppls at xfire, when tbc comes out and has about 10mil subscribers... (there are tons of free servers too !!!!)
Xfire is better for FPS games and moba games (LoL and COD always first) not mmo...
Please no, not again.
See previous x-fire thread(s).
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Xfire is only usefull when the fanbois want to pump up their game, but when their stats fall they dismiss xfire. It is also used by haters to dismiss a game. So no xfire doesnt mean a thing.
Statistically it does, anyone can invent individual exceptions.
No they are not. What if the population of a game stays the same, but the number of Xfire users decrease? How is that meaningful.
Please understand population statistics/dynamics BEFORE you discuss.
This is what xfire shows factually:
The trend in how much xfire members play certain games.
Whether the game has a stable, sustainable population among xfire members or not.
This is what people believe xfire shows factually:
The trend in how much all gamers play certain games.
Whether gamers like a game or don't like a game.
Whether a game was a financial success or not.
Whether a game's general population is stable or not.
The first set shows how we discovered the earth was round. The second set shows why people believed the earth to be flat. If you don't understand this analogy, you probably love using xfire numbers.
If for example, it is verified that the majority of xfire members do not consider themselves 'mmo gamers' - just that one little unknown could change the entire analysis of the graphs. But the make-up of xfire users wasn't created in a controlled way - no one knows whether it is representative of the gaming community, people are simply 'guessing' that it is. And this assumption, for which this entire analysis rests upon, invalidates its results from the beginning. For instance, we surveyed 300 chevrolet truck owners what they thought of ford trucks.......could we rely on that information to form an unbiased assessment of ford truck quality? So without controlling the make-up of xfire users - we simply don't KNOW what we've got as a sample, we are simply 'GUESSING' that sample is representative.
This is why science has to be done in a controlled setting. A setting where these variables are controlled. Xfire is not a controlled test.
X-Fire matters to those who want to use X-Fire numbers.
- Al
Personally the only modern MMORPG trend that annoys me is the idea that MMOs need to be designed in a way to attract people who don't actually like MMOs. Which to me makes about as much sense as someone trying to figure out a way to get vegetarians to eat at their steakhouse.- FARGIN_WAR
There is nothing in that report to compare the XFire users median game time to non XFire users so no conclusion can be drawn from this study as to the relevance of XFire.
The same folks who frequently rely on other kinds of ad numerum or ad populum arguments? No wai!
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
That is part of the margin of error, however by looking at the overall XFire user numbers vs the change in the XFire users playing a particular game you can mitigate this to some extent.
Apparently Xfire doesn't count when it comes to WoW but it is the #1 metric to prove GW2 has taken a hit.
Yea I dont understand it either but there are some on here who have argued this exact case. Boggles my mind completely.
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Best MMO of all time: Asheron's Call - The first company to recreate AC will be the next greatest MMO.
There have been studies on XFire gamers themselves. The median time played per game is 3 hours. That means half of the games played by XFire players were played for 3 hours. The mean time played was about 40 hours. You have a small number of players playing a LOT of hours, skewing the statistics. Everyone else plays for a short time, then moves to another game.
It would be useful to post a link to these studies as many people pull such "studies" out of their ass when they want to sound authoritative.
http://www.st.ewi.tudelft.nl/~iosup/xfire-overview11mmve_online.pdf Study was copyrighted in 2011. It was a study of XFire player statistics, not XFire game statistics.
There is nothing in that report to compare the XFire users median game time to non XFire users so no conclusion can be drawn from this study as to the relevance of XFire.
Page 4, right hand side, bottom of the page, under the heading "Player activity, played time per game:". At least read the document you asked for before making up comments about it.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Yes, that is the part about XFire users, I suggest you read my comment above again and think about it until you understand it.
Oke im calling HOAX!! what is up with all the recent Xfire threads! by low post accounts?
Is this some way of advertising? does anyone still use this crap anymore? i see countless of threads in the last days about XFire numbers.
The number of XFire threads is inversely related to the perceived success of a game.
- Al
Personally the only modern MMORPG trend that annoys me is the idea that MMOs need to be designed in a way to attract people who don't actually like MMOs. Which to me makes about as much sense as someone trying to figure out a way to get vegetarians to eat at their steakhouse.- FARGIN_WAR
Even the mods of this site should be allowed time to LEARN. There's no "double standard," just a learning curve.
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