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Discussion: 4 months and game will be dead? Will it retain its popularity?
TheScavenger
Member EpicPosts: 3,321
So, fanbois were right...I originally thought the game would be dead in 2 months, but I was wrong on the 2 month mark
However, I fully believe, with no doubt, that, outside two spikes in activity...thanksgiving event (if there is one) and the definite Christmas event...after December...you will be luckily to find a full pop server. There will be 1 or 2 full servers (like there was for SWTOR), and everyone else will be...like SWTOR...migrating to those one or two servers. This has been the same for every MMO since WoW, which is still going very strong...despite the panda haters.
So, I may have been wrong on 2 months...but that was far too soon. Not even SWTOR died in 2 months. But I promise you, that in January the game will be dead...people won't want to continue playing it when there are no events or any new content after December.
I do hope I'm wrong and see the game succeed, but every MMO that isn't WoW just dies...and since GW2 doesn't have a sub, it will always have some population...but only when a new major patch or event comes out.
My Skyrim, Fallout 4, Starbound and WoW + other game mods at MODDB:
https://www.moddb.com/mods/skyrim-anime-overhaul
Comments
Its a prediction, didn't say it was going to happen. People predict things on these forums for every MMO. Even said I hope it didn't. But every MMO has died in the 4-6 months mark that isn't WoW. Every single one. Even sandbox MMOs have died (only EVE and WoW are successful). Those two are the only MMOs that have succeeded.
But I do hope to see GW2 succeed, and having no sub fee helps. But, judging by the comments on this forums...a lot of people are already getting bored.
This is just supposed to be a discussion on GW2 long-term life.
My Skyrim, Fallout 4, Starbound and WoW + other game mods at MODDB:
https://www.moddb.com/mods/skyrim-anime-overhaul
Well, there's solid proof...
Edit: Oh yeah, add in Eve...lol Forget about the several hundred mmo's listed on this site (pssst, they have dates next to them).
The truth may be puzzling. It may take some work to grapple with. It may be counterintuitive. It may contradict deeply held prejudices. It may not be consonant with what we desperately want to be true. But our preferences do not determine what's true.
Carl Sagan-
and I added EVE. One successful sandbox, one successful themepark. What MMO has kept up its popularity after the 6 month mark? that isn't those two?
Again, this isn't a troll thread. Its a discussion on the long-term life that GW2 has. Every single MMO board has this on this forum. Even WoW has threads that are similar in its own section, that never get reported or deleted or locked.
My Skyrim, Fallout 4, Starbound and WoW + other game mods at MODDB:
https://www.moddb.com/mods/skyrim-anime-overhaul
Actually servers are already dead, those full/high servers are because Anet put the population to low, so your prediction is on point.
also cool story
The truth may be puzzling. It may take some work to grapple with. It may be counterintuitive. It may contradict deeply held prejudices. It may not be consonant with what we desperately want to be true. But our preferences do not determine what's true.
Carl Sagan-
just curious to where did you get your source from? i already uninstalled gw2 but not because i didn't like the game. i just got tired of themepark mmos in general. second they are releasing new features end of the yr. so how will it start loosing population? also another note the game won't ever die because it is not a sub based game. people will come back to it on and off. i think your predictions way off with your sources and analysis
http://www.mmorpg.com/gamelist.cfm. Here ya go big boy. Want me to list them for you? In case you haven't looked...Even GW1 is going strong, 7 years later. Hell, it could be argued Everquest is strong. My prediction? GW2 gets at least two expansions. 5+ years...and I think that might be conservative.
And if it isn't a troll thread, then its possibly the worst prediction I've ever read on this site. So kudos my friend!
I don't think game companies actually lower the number amount on servers. If that was the case, SWTOR would always have high/full servers on every single server. And having one or two set purposely low, when every other server has a high cap and shows a dead population...seems...useless...
However, when you read shortly after launch (3-4 months I believe it was for SWTOR and a few others)...that people are wanting server merges or/and server transfers to higher pop servers...then you know a MMO is dying.
Having said that, people aren't asking for server merges or server transfers for GW2. So, on the 2 month mark, it is doing good.
My Skyrim, Fallout 4, Starbound and WoW + other game mods at MODDB:
https://www.moddb.com/mods/skyrim-anime-overhaul
i think he just went by feeling the force instead of actually looking for sources. he is probably one of those people who judges the game by looking at the servers activity everyday seeing if it stays high or low. and if that is true, that is one bad way to come up to predictions lol
I think this is a needlessly negative thread. Guild Wars 1 didn't die, in fact it still sells on steam. Guild Wars 2 exceeds Guild Wars 1 in popularity and gameplay so then why will it die? It can only get better as it receives updates and expansions. You can't honestly say an MMO will die in a couple of months when its first year is the fleshing out stage. Not only that but its made more than enough money to ensure the game continues to run and receive new content.
Even if they get to server merge stage it shouldn't be doom and gloom - although I can imagine naysayers being tempted to say that. Plenty of MMO's go through it and it doesn't necessarily mean the end of an MMO. In fact WoW has experienced population rebalances and merges has it not?
The game is fine, the game will get better. Why don't you just enjoy your game of choice instead of trying to stir up trouble?
I still need to queue for WvW (although the queue is shorter)
I still see hundreds of people running around.
Swtor I was about a month in when I went an entire play sessions without seeing
oh look, it's this thread.
Well...i guess someone had to make it, yeah?
Would be nice for once if whoever makes them could use some solid information and not just pull things out their ass...
A few people on mmorpg.com leaving does not equate to the millions playing are leaving.
But hey, you were wrong last time, will be wrong this time, and probably the next...
BUT! SILVER LINING! EVENTUALLY YOU WILL BE RIGHT AND WE WILL ALL HAVE TO BOW TO YOUR WISDOM!!!!
Hang in there!!
The Deep Web is sca-ry.
there was a big diff between to gw2 and swtor. swtor failed gw2 didn't. only reason to why swtor had so much subs during release is because of fanboys. only thing the game featured that was awesome imo was the story line.
Ha!
I know I was totally wrong about the earth ending in the rapture. . but I an 100% certain that it will still happen. . just later. . oh not that time. .
Here is my prediction. In 2 months the OP will be predicting the death of GW2 after 6 months from launch.
Wa min God! Se æx on min heafod is!
To clarify my personal stance on when a MMO has failed. And its easier with sub games...so GW2 will take a different approach
EVE retains 50k people on at all times. It has 500k sub numbers
WoW retains many million number of players.
I consider it a success when either
A: more than 100k are on at all times (or if on a single server, 50k is doing really good)
or
B: If a sub game, it doesn't drop below 500k subs and/or...goes up in number
and
C: No requests for mass server transfers/server merges
As of now, GW2 has A and C, and it doesn't have a subscription.
However, with reports on MMORPG.com forums of a lot of people getting bored (even huge fans)...will that retain? That is the main point of where the discussion came from.
My Skyrim, Fallout 4, Starbound and WoW + other game mods at MODDB:
https://www.moddb.com/mods/skyrim-anime-overhaul
See you are correct again, people been dropping thier GW2 subs since Aug 28th
The truth may be puzzling. It may take some work to grapple with. It may be counterintuitive. It may contradict deeply held prejudices. It may not be consonant with what we desperately want to be true. But our preferences do not determine what's true.
Carl Sagan-
there, I reworded the title to what the point of this thread was supposed to be.
I thought of making this when I started seeing huge fans of this game, state (on these forums), they are bored at 80 and have stopped playing.
So, the point of the discussion is...will the game be dead after the majority get to level 80? As of now, most 80s seem to be getting bored and leaving. Which has been one downfall of many newer MMOs.
My Skyrim, Fallout 4, Starbound and WoW + other game mods at MODDB:
https://www.moddb.com/mods/skyrim-anime-overhaul
They have 2 expansions ready to launch but they wont do it. One its ready for December, holidays and the other one Q2 next year. Game is not dieing since is F2P and they will release content often. Look at Gw1. Now they know how to do it right.
Its just us, the gamers that we are geting bored with this themeparks games...
I know right these "huge fans" of th game with such great post history towards GW2 since before launch and dropping off now.
I see it everywhere all these "Huge Fans" just dropping thier sub.
The truth may be puzzling. It may take some work to grapple with. It may be counterintuitive. It may contradict deeply held prejudices. It may not be consonant with what we desperately want to be true. But our preferences do not determine what's true.
Carl Sagan-